GTstormChaserCaleb's Blog

Time Lapse of Haiyan

By: GTstormChaserCaleb, 11:05 PM GMT on November 07, 2013

Category 5 Super Typhoon Haiyan

By: GTstormChaserCaleb, 3:36 PM GMT on November 07, 2013

Good morning an update on the serious situation unfolding on the other side of the world. Category 5 Super Typhoon Haiyan continues to strengthen with top sustained winds now estimated at 190 mph (165 knots) (305 kmh). The structure continues to improve with a perfectly symmetrical shape and DVORAK Estimates of 8.0/8.0. Never seen a storm break through the top of those estimates before. Minimum Central (Barometric) Pressure from the last DVORAK estimate was 862 millibars (mb.) which if confirmed would make it the strongest cyclone in any basin observed since record keeping began in 1850. Advisory from the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) keeps the pressure at 895 (mb.) and the Joint Typhoon Weather Center keeps the pressure at 890 mb. Maximum wave heights estimated to be upwards to 50 feet. The Cyclone is located approximately 543 nautical miles east-southeast of Manila, Philippines and has tracked west-northwestward at 22 knots over the past six hours.

Fig 1. RBTOP IR Satellite Image of Haiyan from NOAA

Fig 2. Enhanced Meteo SAT-7 IR from RAMSDIS

Fig 3. Cone of Uncertainty from Wunderground

ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 NOV 2013 Time : 143000 UTC
Lat : 10:30:50 N Lon : 127:54:23 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.5 / 904.5mb/155.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.4 7.5 7.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 25 km

Center Temp : +19.2C Cloud Region Temp : -84.7C

Scene Type : EYE


Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 118km
- Environmental MSLP : 1005mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT1
Satellite Viewing Angle : 18.7 degrees


Tropical Transitions Analytical Report

By: GTstormChaserCaleb, 5:00 AM GMT on November 03, 2013

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