GTstormChaserCaleb's Blog

Comparison of last 3 seasons and outlook for the rest of the season part 1.

By: GTstormChaserCaleb, 11:01 PM GMT on July 14, 2013

Comparing the last 3 seasons I see a trend for the storm tracks to be closer to the US (Cape-Verde storms).

2010 (0 Cape-Verde storms):

Figure 1-1 umb/0/0b/2010_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_ma p.png/800px-2010_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary _map.png

2011: (1 Cape-Verde storm)

Figure 1-2 umb/e/e5/2011_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_ma p.png/800px-2011_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary _map.png

2012: 1 Cape-Verde storm and Superstorm Sandy)

Figure 1-3 umb/4/4f/2012_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_ma p.png/800px-2012_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary _map.png

2013: 2 Cape-Verde storms? That would increase the odds of a major strike on the US. I guess we will see, but if this pressure pattern remains through the peak of the hurricane season I find it hard to believe Cape-Verde storms would miss the US.

Bermuda High stronger, Azores High weaker. The storms that roll off strong from Africa would likely recurve early the ones that stay weaker would likely continue on westward.

Figure 2-1 s/2013071418/gfs_z500_mslp_atltropics_41.png

Notice in figure 2-1 the lack of troughiness along the East Coast.

Obviously between now and the peak the pattern can change and let's hope it does and we go another year without a major hurricane on the US. The economy is still weak and needs to recover too.

The long range GFS in figure 2-2 for 2 runs in a row is showing a Cape-Verde storm around the end of the month which is definitely we will have to keep an eye on and see if the time frame gets moved up:

18z 7/14/13 GFS 360 hrs.

Figure 2-2 s/2013071418/gfs_z500_mslp_atltropics_79.png

Thank you all for stopping by and reading. Have a nice evening and nice work week ahead.


Climate Change-Global Warming

By: GTstormChaserCaleb, 2:39 AM GMT on July 03, 2013

Is the Earth Really Warming?

Fairly accurate records of global temperatures have been kept since 1880, those records show a steady increase from 1880-1940. There was however a slight stabilization period from 1940-1960, since then there has been a dramatic rise in global temperatures. According to the figure below the warmest year on record was 1998 when the Earth saw an average temperature of 14.54 °C (58.172 °F)

Now the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1990 briefly halted the warming. The eruption caused fine mist containing sulfuric acid, soot, and aerosols to get ejected into the atmosphere casting a cloud of these particles over the sun resulting in cooler global temperatures. Howerver, progress is being made toward reducing global pollution which may result in greenhouse warming accelerating at a vast pace.

Other evidence in support of global warming indicate that sea surface tempeartures (sst) are warming at a rate of 0.1°C (0.18°F) per year since 1980. Using geophysical borehole data, heat diffuses from the Earth's surface into the soil and rocks, so by plotting temperature profiles at increasing depths, it is possible to reconstruct temperature trends at the surface.

Visit here to see a case study.

More evidence in support of global warming is the retreat of non-polar glaciers. According to the United Nations Environment Programme's World Glacier Inventory, non-polar glaciers in Asia, Africa, and South America have been retreating since the turn of the century and going through rapid melting and decreases in snow cover over the past 40 years.

Milk Lake Glacier in 1988:

Milk Lake Glacier in 2008:

Source: Link

Greenhouse Gases:
By now you all should be familiar with Carbon Dioxide (CO2) and its importance abundance on all living organisms on Earth. However, an over-abundance in CO2 levels can be at least 50% of the blame as to why the Earth is warming. In 1850, the average annual concentration of carbon dioxide was about 250 parts per million volume or ppmv. It increased to 316 ppmv by 1959, and by 2001 it was up to 370 ppmv an increase of 120 ppmv in just over 150 years. Carbon emissions as a result of the burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and gas contribute to the 23.8 billion metric tons of CO2 released into the atmosphere in 2001 along with an additional 1-2 billion coming from deforestation.

The other major culprits involved in Global Warming is Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), Methane (Natural Gas CH4), Tropospheric Ozone, and Nitrogen Oxides (NOx).

CFCs are blamed for destroying stratospheric ozone. Currently CFCs may account for 15-25% of human contribution to Global Warming, so there are 2 reasons for reducing the usage of CFCs: 1) save the ozone layer and 2) reduce Global Warming.

Methane accounts for 15-20% of Global Warming. It is 30 times more effective than CO2 in trapping heat. Methane is produced by bacteria in swamps and areas where organic matter is decomposed. Ruminants in cows release copious amounts of methane into the atmosphere. Rice farming is another source of methane. In rice paddies, large quantities of organic matter rot under a shallow layer of water to produce methane.

About 36,000 billion metric tons of carbon are stored in the oceans compared to about 4000 billion metric tons in fossil fuels. As the ocean slowly warms up, organic carbon will decompose forming methane that will be allowed to release to the surface.

Nitrogen oxides and tropospheric ozone are air pollutants that contribute to petrochemical fog and acid rain and it is important for the sake of the environment to cut down on these emissions. Nitrogen oxides are formed when chemical fertilizers break down, when coal is burned in power plants, and fuel is burned at high temperature with oxygen to form nitrogen oxides. In addition, nitrogen oxides can be released during synthetic substances such as nylon stockings and pantyhose.

What preventative measures can we take?

Work on ways to cut down on CO2 emissions and the other greenhouse gases by providing sinks for CO2 or sequestering CO2. The benefit of curbing greenhouse emissions especially CFCs is it will help protect the ozone layer from further damage and prevent further holes in the ozone layer. How can we reduce these emissions, turning to more environmentally friendly fuels such as clean-burning hydrogen gas. Other benefits of reducing fossil fuels usage include reducing air pollution, acid rain, and protecting the landscape and extending the time that our finite supplies of fossil fuels will last.

Alternative, nonpolluting, cleaner energy sources, such as solar, hydro, geothermal and wind technologies need to be further developed and implemented, and need to be made cost effective so more and more households can adapt to these forms of energy. Some researchers suggest that nuclear power may play a larger role in the future since this form of energy emits very little in the way of greenhouse gases.

One way to discourage the burning of fossil fuels is to impose a "carbon tax" on their consumption. The Congressional Budget Office estimated that a tax of $28 per ton (0.907 metric ton) of carbon content in fossil fuels would raise over 30 billion a year money that could be used to the development of more non-carbon-emitting energy technologies.

Save the Earth's forest! Although governments find it economically profitable for deforestation and forest that catch on fire despite people's best attempts to put out the fire, saving the earth's forest will help contribute to the preservation of bio-diversity, help protect soils, and ameliorate climatic extremes.

The development of sinks that will absorb CO2 has given rise to a new method of reducing carbon emissions known as "Carbon Sequestration" which aims to "geo-engineer" the Earth and its atmosphere by using natural and artificial means to remove atmospheric CO2.

Another method that his been proposed for reducing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is to fertilize the oceans with iron, nitrogen, phosphorus, and other limiting nutrients so that growth of photosynthetic plankton will be promoted, thus absorbing carbon dioxide. The theory is that once plankton die they fall to the ocean floor and the take the carbon with them. The downside is that the mass fertilization of plankton could reduce oxygen levels in the ocean which would have detrimental effects to other ocean animals and their habitat. Another approach would be to take that carbon dioxide collected from the atmosphere and injected a thousand or more meters below the surface of the ocean, again this could prove detrimental as it would make the water more acidic.

All the methods proposed for "sequestering" carbon dioxide have negatives, so our best bet in the very long term would be to pursue renewable clean energy and fuel sources and then attempt to find ways to safely dispose of the excess carbon dioxide.

In Conclusion the Earth is warming I have provided statistical trends that date back to 1850 that show an increase in global temperature, I have also provided the reason behind these temperature rises, and have provided results and the solutions we must take to save our Earth so that we can assure the next generation, and the generation after that will be able to live a sustainable life here on Earth.

Source: Environmental Science: Systems and Solutions
by Michael L. Mac Kinney, Robert Milton

Thanks for reading, feel free to leave any comments, concerns, or data that I may have missed. Your contribution will be greatly appreciated. Thanks again.

I now leave you with this humor :)


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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