Hello. I'm just a person who loves weather. I live in York County, PA and have 2 brothers... neither of which like weather ha :)
By: Doppler22 , 9:24 PM GMT on October 23, 2012
Hello Everyone. This is my first entry so be leanient with me when it comes to spelling and graphics. My computer currently is having issues with posting pictures/data so I will do the best I can to explain the situation. This is just an explanation... Im not 100% sure what I think will happen.
Tropical Storm Sandy
Back to the topic at hand, This late October storm has the potential to be rememerabke for the majority of the East Coast. The two main models (GFS and the European Model) are at some odds when it comes to Sandy... The American Model (GFS) is currently predicting that Sandy will stay generally offshore of the US and bringing minimal impacts to the US. The European model however, shows Sandy passing much closer to the US and then transitioning to one of the Strongest Nor'Easters for this time (Late October).
Right now, the strength forecasting remains difficult. As TWC (The Weather Channel) explains, forecasting strength is very difficult. Right now Sandy is in a favorable environment to strengthen as there is low wind shear and the dry air closest to it is well to the North to affect her strengthening abilities. The NHC is currently keeping Sandy as a low end Category one Hurricane hitting Jamaica and Cuba and keeping it farther from the US coast. Sandy does have the potential to be stronger as the NHC forecast may be a little conservative. Don't be expecting a Category 5 Hurricane but a higher end Category one isn't out of the question.
TS Sandy taken by Wikimedia
Tropical Depression 19
Another storm is ligering out in the middle of the Atlantic also. This is Tropical Depression 19. It is the 19th storm and currently is forecasted to become Tropical Storm Tony soon. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting it to reach a peak of around 45-50mph before it dissapates over the open Atlantic. I agree with them in the aspect of, I don't see Tony getting very strong. Tony is most likely going to stay a "Fish Storm" as they say and not affect anybody.
TD 19 out in the middle of the Atlantic. Found it on Wunderground
If Tony is named then it will be the 19th named storm of the season. This is a fairly high number compared to the first forecast by NOAA. Expectations were down due to the thought that El Nino was going to develope. Also, this would make it the third year in a row to have this high number of storms. Luckily, for the USA, none of the Major Hurricanes have hit the USA even though Irene and Isaac did some good damage along areas of the East.
What Happens in October?
October is usually another active month after August and September. October also has a history of nasty storms. Hurricane Mitch in 1998 was a strong Category 5 hurricane as was Category 5 Hurricane Wilma. To this day, Wilma remains the strongest Hurricane (pressure wise) in Atlantic History... In October.
Hurricane Wilma was an October Cat 5 in 2005. Wilma was famous for the damage and also for having one of the smallest eyes on record.
My next entry will be when I have some more time to write up a blog and it'll probably be on the impacts of Sandy or November expectations. Thanks
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.