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SE LA obs...

By: DocNDswamp, 7:05 PM GMT on April 02, 2010

Latest W Atlantic Basin AVN / IR Satellite Image...

W Atlantic Basin AVN Satellite Image

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Louisiana's State Wildflower reaches peak bloom in April...



Louisiana Irises on Lake Verret, at Magazille Point on April 15 2005... A refreshing late March to mid April view common across SE LA's freshwater wetlands / waterways as irises bloom with Spring's arrival...

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Note: As always, please check the comments section for any additional updated information... ;)

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Monday May 3 2010 1:30 PM... Summer-like warmth setting in this week... Calmer winds / seas to help with spill efforts...

Finally got out of the LL stratus fog gloom as sun has been peeking thru leftover high cloudiness... and getting warmer, already have reached 87F (warmest yet this year!) and some stations to west are nearing 90 today... More of same this week ahead as summer temps dig in... One more short wave coming across from NM over TX that might enhance rain chances for those E of here into tomorrow, but boundary passed here yesterday eve for most part - focusing shwrs / tstms from S Lafourche N/NEWD toward NOLA, etc... and continuing EWD today, so limited chances here...

Fortunately the strong winds dropped off almost abruptly late aftn / last night... and remain a good bit lighter today, so improving conditions for working on containment, other spill efforts...

Did get a minimal amt rainfall late aftn / eve Sunday from foggy drizzle, or "frizzle" lol... tallied .09" amt at home... Meanwhile HUML1 station showing zero, so getting suspicious of their rain gauge (which usually even records minor amts from overnight fog)... Was interesting watching 36 hr vis / IR / WV imagery showing chunk of the Cen Am disturbance get forced NWD between flow of ridge to east / trof to west, that helped fire up activity on tail end of CONUS frontal trof over extreme E SE LA / S MS late aftn / last night... For those with memory of GFS runs of 10-12 days ago, this barely perceptable event was the one that had been shown as an organized tropical low immediately offshore near Tehuantepec slide into S MX and lift NWD into Gulf toward N Cen coast with frontal trof... LOL, didn't happen exactly that way, but darn close... The northern portion of Cen Am monsoon has taken a beating from shear lately, but will rebound - Panama has hardly noticed any difference as strong convection / hvy rains continue reforming...


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Wed Apr 28 2010 11:15 PM CDT... Dry April transitioning to wetter / warmer start to May... Coastal Flood Statement / Watch in effect for high tides / water levels coming... MS River delta wetlands to be impacted by mammoth oil spill... Still watching the monsoonal gyre over Cen Am / E Pac for potential low pressure consolidation...

April 2010 in SE LA...
Locally for the month, temps have averaged right at normal with the slowly warming rebound from a remarkably sustained cold Winter - had 5 straight months of below avg temps... The majority of April days have had typically comfortable low-mod humidity of early Spring, but muggy season looms... Reached warmest temp yet with 84F reading on Mon Apr 26, but we've been averaging mid-up 50 lows w high near 80... Warmer, more humid and wetter days appear ahead to start May...

Unless we get a hvy rain on Fri, the trend of dry Aprils over past decade has continued; officially, the last April with near norm rainfall was in 2006 and only 2004 had a notable 2" plus surplus... Most have come nowhere near avg of 4.46" amt... So far, only had 3 rain days to total .66" amt at HUML1, while received 1.76" at my Bayou Cane home thanks to good 1.02" downpour on 19th that mostly missed the station to the NW (parts of SW Houma had over 2")... On the plus side, the severe wx season has bypassed us to the north this year, although it's far from over...

Looking ahead, after chilly Wed Apr 28 lows of mid-40's to low-mid 50's over region (a nice 51-78F range here), sfc high shifts EWD and locks in place with broad Atlantic sfc ridge, setting up very strong return flow off the Gulf for next several days... SE / S winds will be ripping up to 20-30 mph as pressure gradient tightens in response to western trof / developing low over SW - Rockies and expect boundary to remain stalled to our N / NW into early next week, draped over Midwest / mid-MS / TN valleys... EWD progress will be blocked as we see an amplified pattern shape up as mid-upper ridge will be building NWD from SA / Caribbean over Gulf / SE states - with the mid level ridge centered over FL pen, UL ridge centered over S Gulf...

Already the NWS has issued coastal flood watches for our area as persistent SE-SLY winds will combine with high astronomical tides for potential water levels of 2-3 ft above norm... That's also not good news considering the huge oil spill ongoing just off the mouth of the river from the tragic oil rig disaster to potentially threaten coastal ecosystems... Massive containment booms, dispersants, even burning some of the oil slick today have been employed trying to minimize the impact, which seems unavoidable at this point...

Warmer, moist tropical air on the way for us - and downright summer heat over S TX expected with temps rising into 90's to 100F range - as desert heat WAA spreads NWD from both SLY sfc / SWLY flow aloft, but will also reintroduce a 850-700 mb inversion / cap over broad region to limit activity... However, chance scat shwrs / tstms rise Friday enhanced by strong, moist low level SLY flow, increased lift with frontal approach / short wave NW of here tracking in SWLY flow aloft - yep, could get wet at Jazz Fest again! Chances for scat shwrs / tstms will remain (but wax / wane) thru the period as we stay in warm moist flow and several disturbances pass along that quasi-stationary boundary initiating fresh activity... Outside of rain-cooled areas where sun breaks thru, temps could rise into mid-upper 80's, so daytime heating could factor into localized tstm development... Heaviest rainfall expected above closer to / along frontal boundary extending NEWD from NE TX, while early guidance from SPC puts better chances (slight risk) for severe wx from Plains into Midwest initially, expected to expand EWD over broader area w slow progression / multiple short waves / sfc lows - we'll have to see if a zone of moderate risk is later targeted... Parts of the lower MS valley / mid-South areas slammed by past deadly severe wx outbreak may receive hvy rains and again, strong to severe tstms as boundary stalls then sags slowly E and SWD... Hopefully the worst stricken areas get a break this go round, but the HPC is putting a bullseye for hvy precip over N LA, AR, NW MS into W TN over 3-4 day period... SE LA could get into heavier rains by Mon-Tue as frontal boundary drifts SE and a stronger upper impulse finally kicks the system EWD by Wed with bit cooler, drier wx behind it...


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Fri Apr 23 12:15 PM CDT: Round 2 of severe wx today, rd 3 Saturday... Large area of moderate risk...

"All forms of severe wx possible"... You betcha, as we're now into day 2 of the strongest multi-day severe wx outbreak yet this Spring thanks to that monstrous deep-layered low with several embedded short waves and low pressure centers rotating around it... As suspected in last week's outlook, it's a lousy start for NOLA's Jazz Fest and any other activity... Strong SLY winds have been ripping at 20-30 mph... Shwrs and tstms are moving over Terrebonne currently at noon hr - some hail indicated! - with more expected this aftn... While heaviest should occur N of here both days, it will be rough locally as well... This IS a dangerous situation where explosive development can initiate in short period, so head's up all!

Short on time, just wanted to touch bases briefly...

Late next week, could have similar episode... while early season tropical wx enthusiasts will have plenty to watch as a broad monsoon trof is set to develop over Cen Am with sfc to lower mid level convergence of Atlantic easterlies meeting E Pac westerlies... fully capable of spinning up more than one sfc low center on either side of Panama-Nicaragua, with mountainous land interaction being the limiting factor... This set up is very similar to 2008 when we had both E Pac's Alma and Atlantic's Arthur develop close together... Regardless, very hvy life-threatening flash-flooding rains causing mudslides could be expected from this long-duration event as we end April go into May... Mid - upper level winds appear favorable for limited development in that region...

Storming outside presently, had SLY gust near or over 40 mph last couple minutes in this quick developing tstm cluster!

Stay safe everyone!!!


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Tax Day Greetings, Thu Apr 15 1:30 PM CDT...

Okay, not the most pleasant of thoughts, is it...

Weatherwise, back to warm / dry forecast after yesterday's little tease, which the GFS did a fine job forecasting, both on timing / location and motion... Had nice moisture advection off Gulf, a weak low-mid level feature that aided in lift as it drifted NW around the periphery of the ridge combined with efficient daytime heating... But no rain locally as expected... Was a neat day for cloud watching - started daybreak with some patchy mid-upper alto and cirrocumulus blowing off the persistent Rio Grande disturbance with sun poking thru, then quickly had an almost overcast low level stratus field develop off the Gulf and encompass SE LA, oriented NE-SW lifting toward the NW... which translated to growing low-based cumulus with shwrs / a few tstms developing west of here in a arc from near Morgan City into SW MS... LOL, actually saw some columns of towering cumulus develop by mid aftn but nada rainfall... Feature lifted across LA before croaking near sunset with loss of daytime heating, dissipating mid level feature and dry air / capping reestablished from the ridge... Quite a summery feel locally with higher humidity and plentiful sunshine as we reached our warmest reading yet - 82F... Should be close to that or so next couple days...

Strong subsidence under the ridge back in place today despite high LL moisture in the breezy E / SE flow... Abundant rainfall expected to overspread TX / OK with an advancing trof trying to edge out the ridge but little in way of rainfall chances locally until this weekend and that remains questionable... Perhaps Sat night into Sunday with frontal passage, although may build across / drop down shunting the moisture supply S and E, esp with series of weak Gulf lows passing well to our S concentrating the moisture... The repeating ridge pattern over E 1/2 US since Apr began should be breaking down to more of a broad trof, more zonal or progressive pattern which could allow next 10 days or so of Apr to become cooler w better rain chances... We will want to keep our eyes on the model runs for next week - esp toward the weekend as the GFS has been insisting a very deep and strong system could be impacting a large area as it moves across, potentially with severe wx and hvy, flooding rainfall should this verify... Yeah, you betcha - just in time to make the 1st weekend of JazzFest (Apr 23-25) a mud-wallowing experience! Usual caveats apply - we're still talking 7-10 days out...

Atlantic Tropics remain as quiet as expected for April... We'll look for any dramatic changes next month in the upper level flow, and for a more pronounced development in the AB high which has been very weak and transitional... Meanwhile, unless a subtropical oddity pops up, the strong and unfavorable mid and upper level westerlies remain well entrenched down to 10-15N... Still seeing a healthy southern branch subtropical jet stream flow... Any mid level subtropical ridging has been short-lived and suppressed equatorward from the persistent westerlies (although we do see upper ridging / mid level reflection trying to build NWD from northern portion Eastern South America across the lower MDR - and roughly centered near or E of Windwards as has done several periods thru Winter / Spring)... Yeah, we'd love to have this hold thru Summer into Aug-Sep - or at least force or leave a more chaotic, broken mid-upper stream flow in place over the MDR to offset those favorable warm SST's... ;)


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Under 80F streak ends...
Mon Apr 5 2010 3:45 PM CDT: A near summer-like feel on Easter Sunday as 138 day streak of high temp below 80F ends...

Okay, wasn't really summer-like, but the higher humidity and warmth was notable - almost I dare say, semi-oppressive feeling, LOL - after such an extended cooler than avg period, with March 2010 completing our 5th straight month of below avg temps... a top 5 coldest Met Winter on record... and one of the coldest Jan / Feb / Mar ever to begin a year...

I'll post more on the past Winter's consistent cold later... and the frustrating revelations I discovered in retrieving the temp records trying to put the season in historical context... thanks to multiple data sets from various "official" sources containing widely varying temp / precip records due to "adjustments"! Yeah, right... "trust the data" mantra! - Which data set? Well, I trust the data raw and direct from the station, thank you! Unfortunately, since about 4 years ago, access to this station's raw data prior to 1976 (and accurate highs / lows / MT's / rainfall records) is only available from the NCDC / SRCC for a sum into hundreds of dollars... leaving the highly suspect, and clearly manipulated USHCN / GHCN / GISS data sets freely available... Oh well, so it goes...

As expected, our cool streak of high temps holding below 80F finally came to an end early aftn Easter Sunday Apr 4th when HUML1 station hit 80F and peaked at 81F under mostly sunny / partly cloudy skies and light SLY winds... The last time it was 80F was back on Nov 15-16 - the only 80's of Nov - giving a streak of 138 days with high below 80F, likely another record... The light SLY winds were key, with less moderating influence from still cool low-mid 60F degree Gulf waters below... Still some stations right on the coast haven't gotten past 70's yet... My consolation on reaching 80F is tempered in knowing most every station from the SW / E Rockies / S Plains / Midwest to the East Coast hit 80 - and some 90's - before we did! Seeing a near repeat of same today, have touched 80F so far and SELY winds are a bit more breezy today so won't go much higher... Fog has also been widespread across N Gulf last couple mornings, perhaps again into Tue morn if winds drop light enough... Frontal system expected to bring welcome chances of rain by Wed / Thu over the area and cooler temps behind it's passage... Like many past Springs, drought concerns loom if substantial rainfall fails to materialize, as the state climatology office mentions - now into our 7th week with below avg precip across Louisiana... LOL, the rainfall pattern has been more inconsistent than the temps...

Also of note - locally the azaleas are nearing peak bloom, this being about 3 weeks later than avg due to cold Winter... March began with nearly all growth running 3-4 weeks behind norm, with brown lawns / trees nearly as barren as usually seen in early Feb... The Jap Magnolias, redbuds, peach / pear trees were in peak bloom far later than avg... But with much longer day lengths, March showed incredibly fast recovery in greening the landscape, despite mean temps running 5.6 degrees below avg here... LOL, the cool wx loving early clover - both white and (aggravating) bur clover grew profusely this year and continue thriving...

Oh and there's another missing element due to our prolonged cold Winter and this is VERY noticeable right now - a near complete absence of MOSQUITOES!!! I think I may have had a sighting Sat aftn while cutting some old dead grass along a now dried up ditch... as a cloud of perhaps newly hatched skeeters lifted up, but were too small to confirm... and I haven't had one land on me yet... Yeah, I know they'll be resurrected soon enough... Hallelujah, the benefits of sustained cold Winters!



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Friday April 2 2010, 2 PM CDT...

"Happy Easter 2010 weekend all!"
Good Friday and happy Easter Holiday weekend wishes to all!

LOL, too short on time to post anything but a greeting... I'll add wx obs, some review of our cold Winter / Spring data, relevant or non-relevant stuff later... Simply put, the old December blog had to go! I was cringing anytime I saw it on the active blog list, as it wasn't... ;)

Have a good 'un!

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Spring cleaning comes to Doc's blog!

Happy Easter Weekend to you, too. It feels like we might actually get a little weather here this afternoon or evening - humidity's on the way up, noticeably. With luck it'll swing through in time for a nice tomorrow.

Enjoy whatever you're up to!
from past blog -

173. code1 4:37 PM CDT on April 01, 2010 Hide this comment.
It's a beautimous day on da panhandle Doc! Already been to da beach. TX is more than fine, but I so missed the sugar sands of home. Thanks for da warning at beell's da other day. I kept the pedal half way to the metal THIS time. Saw more of MS and AL's finest than I did in all of LA however. 'Ceptin for the Atchafalaya Basin Bridge. Saw 5 on that 20 mile bridge stretch!! Hit BR during rush hour so couldn't get into trouble there. Yep, crawfish is still expensive, and small (danged El Nino anyway), but oh so yummy in Lafayette last night! It's good to be home.

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174. seflagamma 12:00 PM CDT on April 02, 2010 Hide this comment.
Hello Doc,

happy beautiful weekend to ya!

Just stopping by to wish you a Blessed Good Friday
and a Happy Easter Weekend!


Easter Christian Comments
Myspace 2.0 Layouts



Hiya Code and Gams!

Code, glad your trip home was uneventful in that regard! Oh heck yeah... crawfish running 2.50-3 bucks a pound live, about 3.48 boiled... way too high still... Price should really drop over next two weeks as larger Basin crawfish become more available...
Enjoy the beach, gal!

Gams, to you and family, wishing a very pleasant Easter back at ya!

Thanks to you both for stopping by!

Heading outside into the SSE breeze... LOL, maybe some crawfish on this traditional seafood day... Who am I kidding? Everyday is seafood day in SE LA!

Later folks!
Good aftn, Good Friday Shore!

LOL, yes some much-needed Spring cleaning with minimal effort on a blog entry...!

Well a few shwrs of needed precipitation would be nice, sans any tstms bearing anything beyond that... Hope it passes without making news!

Enjoy your Easter weekend!
Thank you for a n ew blog thread and for bringing our prev post over!
You're welcome Gams!

LOL... I struggled a bit with WU edits to get your nice postcard to carry over!
But you did it even if it took awhile and
I appreciate your effort!

have fun out on the water catching some seafood!
Though not as bad as dealing with YouTube - a nasty April Fool's Day joke pulled on many of us... I can no longer see ANY youtube video reliably after they "upgraded" their system, apparently dropping support for my older OS or it's Flash version... Been trying to find a suitable work around, but not much luck so far...

Nahhh, still haven't been in the boat since Jan 2009... and dang it - been so dry lately, hardly enough water in the ditches to catch some local crawfish... Oh well... :(

Okay, heading out,
Later folks!
Happy Easter weekend neighbor...
Good Friday greetings Pat!

Same to you in return - Hope you and family enjoy a fine Holiday weekend!

LOL, I might go by Rouses... see if any boiled crawfish leftovers to snag... Running 10-12 bucks for a decent 3 lbs or so meal... Had 'em in my hands yesterday, then put 'em back, finding the price harder to swallow than had I ate the shell!

Later, bro!
Hiya Emmy!
Thanks for the lovely greeting! Beautiful warm Spring wx, pleasant Easter wishes to you as well - enjoy!

*****

Weak frontal carcass washing out as arrives here, no surprise, and winds have shifted to light WSWLY for now, while stuck in LL cloud deck... Not a drop of rain, continuing the drier trend since March... and dry Spring wx in general... Perhaps a better chance later in week along next front bringing cooler temps by Friday... Getting a bit dry locally, sure the gardens could use some... LOL, considering the record floods of December / below avg Jan / above avg Feb / below avg March... Hmmmmm, April is typically a rather dry month here... ;)

Meanwhile, started off a balmy 68 low today, appears will finally hit / top 80F across all of SE LA over next few days with abundant sunshine to return, benign wx pattern, light winds... Last time hit 80F was on Nov 16th, so been a long stretch (likely a record)... Always get a kick seeing areas into Midwest and NE states reaching much higher temps than we do on the immediate Gulf coast during Spring, and especially this year with colder than avg water temps (not counting the warm loop up from Yucatan Channel and remnants of warm eddy off S TX / NE MX - both held onto mid-upper 70's / near 80 SST's all Winter)... Lot of record highs set yesterday, some into lower 90's, while a pleasant 77F here albeit with moderate humidity / LL moisture... Quite evident the strong cap in place watching the very limited cumulus growth stop flat around a mile up...

Should be fine Easter egg hunting wx for the little ones! And church services for the faithful... or other Spring outdoor activities...
Cheers!
Howdy, Doc,
Shouts of joy heard all across the WU. Doc performs quarterly maintenance on his blog (j/k)!

Will we ever see a good front down here this Spring? What will our early season tropical systems spawn from if we dont LOL? Please don't tell me the GOM will just sit and bake til August.

Anyway, Have a wonderful Sunday.
A double Howdy, Doc,

Laughing myself silly at the "weak frontal carcass". That says it all, for sure. Foggy here again this a.m. with promises of more of that warm weather - 80s inland, not so warm here of course.

No egg hunting for me, but you can bet I've got Mama's basket ready. Deny that woman her chocolate rabbit and you're in for big trouble, let me tell you ;-) What she doesn't expect is the burgundy-blooming African violet I found her yesterday. I expect to live off the credit from that for at least a month (or until it stops blooming and I can't say, "Well, look at that pretty flower I brought you"! LOL)

Hope your day is great - best wishes to you and yours!




glitter-graphics.com

Happy Easter Doc! Here's wishing you and your loved ones a most blessed day.
Uh oh, DocNDswamp's new blog has GOM and Caribbean IR at the top.

Sounds like good weather for you. Happy Bunny Sunday. Or is that Sunny Bunday? or... Oh, Eggs! However you spend this day, I wish for you a happy one.
Monday Hiyas!
Help - it's a sweltering 80F degrees out there! LOL... at least the SLY winds are up, feels nicer in da breeze...

Hey Beell!
LOL, yes, I couldn't let it drag on to a semi-annual cleaning...
Hmmmmm, questions, questions... Yes, a good front coming but frost / freeze unlikely, lol... Now lemme check da crystal ball on the other two... Okay, got it... Stalling fronts won't help, there will not be any early season tropical activity... GOM and Atlantic will be in slow-bake mode... but won't matter what the SST's are - Mid-upper westerlies to remain entrenched to low latitudes, shear to hold strong as will lotta dry air, *cough, cough*... Any subtropical steering ridge will set up either over or below us, leaving the Cen-Am region most vulnerable to any TC's that manage to form... E Pac looks more active...

And LMAO, I reserve to right to come back and edit that comment multiple times over next couple months to maintain it's outlook accuracy!

Hope you and family enjoyed a fine Easter, bud!

Hiya Shore!
Thanks a bunch for the nice greeting! Rebirth, regeneration, resurrection, says it all in that determined stump... Ah ha, sounds as ya made good with that African violet choice - certainly to last much longer than a mere chocolate bunny... Might better run to Wal Mart today pick up leftover sweets on sale just to be safe!

Hello Ally!
Thank You for the lovely card and greeting... and I trust the Easter celebration for you and family was equally swell! At least we had no weather issues on the N Gulf coast to mar the holiday... ;)

Howdy Barefoot!
LOL, nahhhh... just the same old tired sat image been dragging around for years... Might hafta get creative, add more informative graphics one of these days... LOL, was a Easter Summer Sunday, so it seemed... Ha! Guess I forgot what real summer feels like! It was nice, spent late aftn picking limbs, cutting more clover / grass... usual warm season stuff (that gets busier in time!)..
Hope your Easter was very pleasant, m'friend!

Gonna add a bit of an update on these "hot" temps, then gotta run...
Great rest of the day all!
Thanks for the update Doc, I'm ready for the above 80 temps. I'm also ready for the price of crawfish to go down...geesh.

Oh yeah, The Allman Brothers are gonna be at Jazzfest again this year. They were great in '07 and ol Gregg aint gettin any younger and neither am I :)...lol. Guess I'll have to go see them again!
Hey TK!
Great to see ya!
Watch those crawfish prices drop... over next week and beyond as both pond crawdads grow faster / more Basin crawfish become available... Me too, so far I've refused to pay $3.50 lb for 'em... and now suffering severe withdrawal! LOL...

Aww man, that should be great having the Bros back... crowd pleasers for sure!

Enjoy!

(edit) - On my way out... gonna check those prices in a few, might have dropped some already...
I reached a new Low Doc.


Bought 3 Lbs frozen Chinese un's for etoufee Saturday.


I said a few extra Hail Marys yesterday for dat.
Holy cow moly, what an exciting close game... right to the end! Last sec 3 attempt from mid court by Butler just missed!
Duke prevails 61-59... Wow!!!

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ROTFLMAO, Pat!
Hey, desperate times / desperate measures, eh?

LOL, on Good Friday our local Rouses offered boiled crawfish, crabs, snow crabs, dungeness crabs, shrimp of 3 sizes, whole lobster, fried lobster claws... and I came away with rotisserie smoked chicken! Not a bad choice as it was surprisingly one of the most flavorful, tender hens ever...

Well, I checked at Rouses this aftn... had plenty boiled / bagged, ready to go, a mixed size but overall large... and, still with $3.47 lb price attached, so... getting the shakes pretty bad now, lol... Actually the servings bagged up were larger than needed at 4-5 lbs, was too late to get smaller portion... but I will soon - junkies gotta have their fix!

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And I should know better than to jinx myself so badly with such an idiotic statement - "a near complete absence of MOSQUITOES!!!" ... Yeah, well I found 'em late this eve after sunset, or rather they found me, lol... Cut some old tall dead bahia grass, picked / burned some limbs at dark in a pecan grove that hasn't been touched since Oct - where they been hiding... Slapped a few, although not nearly the amt usually see ATT, so obviously the cold took a toll on da lil buzzers... regeneration underway, LOL... Perhaps even worse, before confirmed the skeeters survival, was bugged by damn salt water gnats brought inland on SLY winds... So much for this Spring nonsense, bring back Winter!
;)
...bring back Winter!

Bite your tongue Doc, skeeters or no! Been beautiful on the N. Gulf Coastal areas as you know. Unfortunately, I've been ill a good part of the time home. On the mend, but still a bit yucky. Gotta get over it as I am headed westward again this aft. Stopping over in cajun country again.
Mudbugs were $3.99/lb here this weekend, and only medium sized! Happy I wouldn't reserve a bag at that price for Easter Dinner as my sickness started Sat. night. Those planning on dinner at my house had to go elsewhere. :-( Now, what to do with that big ham?

pUKe? Bahhhhh Was praying that shot would go in for Butler. Ahhh missed opportunities and all that. Have a good one!
University Professors Association is investigating Ivor van Heerden's dismissal


In a strongly worded letter, the American Association of University Professors (AAUP) has alerted Michael Martin, Chancellor of Louisiana State University (LSU) that, in its opinion, the firing of Professor Ivor van Heerden "raises significant issues of academic freedom, tenure and due process."

Two months ago, van Heerden, the former deputy director of the Louisiana State University (LSU) Hurricane Center filed a wrongful termination lawsuit in state court against the flagship university.

Van Heerden alleged that LSU officials waged a campaign of retaliatory harassment for his criticism of the federal Army Corps of Engineers. Louisiana State University receives large federal grants from the Corps.

Apparently Chancellor Martin had ignored previously written letters to his office setting forth AAUP's concerns regarding actions taken by LSU administration to terminate the services of Dr. van Heerden.


John Barry, Oliver Houck, Dr. Mtangulizi Sanyika, Bill Schulz and Harry Shearer listen to the organizers of Ivor van Heerden's press conference. Photo by Sandy Rosenthal

The most recent letter dated April 5, 2010 puts LSU on alert that the AAUP shall "establish an ad hoc committee composed of persons who have had no previous involvement with the particular matter, to conduct its own full inquiry without prejudgement of any kind." (Hat tip to the Editilla at the New Orleans Ladder for posting this information first.)

When the professor announced his intention to sue LSU, he was flanked by big name supporters including John Barry (author Rising Tide), Harry Shearer (actor, filmmaker), Oliver Houck (Tulane University law professor), Mtangulizi Sanyika (African American Leadership Project), and Jed Horne (author Breach of Faith).

At the time, few media reports mentioned this significant show of support. This ad hoc investigation now shows, yet again, that Ivor van Heerden is far from alone on this journey to find out the truth about Ivor van Heerden's firing.
Tuesday aftn Hiyas,

Spring in full swing... some patchy early morn fog / mostly widespread LL stratus... Gradient winds from high over FL / low developing over E Rockies yielding SLY / SSWLY breeze up a bit 8-15 or so forming shallow cumulus "cloud streets" on vis sat image... warmth holding in up 70's / near 80...

...and hoping we get some rain Wed eve / Thu morn with the cold front, as GFS outlook not encouraging for future prospects - next system or 2 after may tend to stall to west over TX / OK or pass across well to north where active storm track boundary located... Soil conditions not seriously dry yet thanks to wet Dec and Feb, but fresh gardens / crops getting in need... And it's a typical April trend for SE LA... Tempwise, could be 1st month with slightly above MT's by a degree or two since Oct, but equally reasonable could average norm or decline back to slightly below... Absolutely nothing really unseasonably cold or hot expected overall...

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Hi Code!

Oh no... So sorry to hear ya had that illness for Easter weekend, or anytime! Well wishes to ya, hope you mend quickly, gal!

Guess those mudbug prices not really out of line, heard some locals payed $3.50 / lb nearby for live sacks, when they found 'em...

Okay, no more Winter it shall be, as you request.. Can we at least just hold onto these pleasant up 70's / low 80's? ... All summer? LOL... Oh, agree - really wanted cinderella Butler to pull it off, not a Duke fan either... Had their chances, blew some ops late 2nd half, but were impressive anyhow proving they more than belonged as serious Champ contenders...

Hope the travel and week goes better for ya C!

*****

Hey Pat, thanks for the updated info!

Yep, LSU admin not gonna look too smart how they handled it... Good chance van Heerdens lawsuit will succeed, as he was railroaded out for speaking the truth on pertinent issues... I doubt the USACE would've held back funding over it - they're use to harsh criticism... LOL, on that note, I'm not quite as critical of the Corps as used to be, as I am of Congress who ultimately deserves most blame for failing to provide adequate project funding requests for years / decades... Anyway, some screwy shake-ups been going on at LSU, including at the Ag Center LAIS COOP wx network last Fall where I obtain Houma's only reliable / official wx data... IT dept heads to blame on that one...

Work calls again, gotta fly!
It's Hot Doc,

..and dem skeeters are hatching here too.

How dey get so Big so fast though?



And our streak continues. We last hit 80 on Halloween. Our streak of days not reaching 80 is a record by more than two weeks (records began in 1948) 74 today, the streak is alive!
Hi, Doc,

Really interesting post on Wendy Billiot's blog now. Thought you might be interested in it, and the comments. Bow hunting reds? Who knew?
LOL Pat,

Good question! The ones I saw Saturday were fresh hatched, lil fellows... On Monday eve, those were full-grown hungry females... Might be salt-water imports flew up from the coast on the SLY winds with the darn gnats!
LOL, as bad as they get 'em in Alaska, knew the cold we had wasn't gonna eliminate 'em... But was a nice break for a while... ;)

Hiya SSI,

That's a very impressive streak of coolth! You would need to be under a ridge with strong WAA and light west winds for optimum warming right now, I'd guess?

Our station is probably about 35-40 miles from the coast, far enough inland from the strongest moderating marine influence, but still cooler than Cen / N LA which has been in mid-80's last 4 days... We peaked at 79 today and dropped further as SLY winds increased, despite m sunny skies... Most right on the coast here haven't hit 80 either, and esp along the lower MS River in Plaquemines Parish - they'll be the last, as always with cold river water and cool Gulf... LOL, a big diff on the coast come summer when Gulf waters hit up 80's!

Hello Shore,

Thanks!
Just getting back, so haven't had chance to read her post yet... but I'm aware there's proposed legislation to ban or highly restrict "bow fishing", which some guides specialize in with night "fishing"... I haven't been too keen on it since they started years ago for a few reasons. I'll give it a gander...

BBL...
{{{{{{{Doc}}}}}}}
Oh my... Doc's blog gets active... sign to start eating last years canekitcans!
Good to see you, was thinking about you in Miami when Sir Paul sang this one:



I'M ONE OF THE RED DOTS AND HAD ALREADY LOST MY VOICE WAAAYYYYYY BEFORE THIS!

Double Kiss
Well, what a pleasant surprise -

Hello (((Finnster)))!!!
So nice to hear from ya again! Nahhh, no cause for alarm seeing my blog up... tropics still quiet, LOL! Hope the Winter season has been enjoyable for you and J, family, and da pooches...

Oh, I think I spotted ya at the McCartney concert in the video! (Amazing, it's one of the You Tubes I can still view... some play, a lot don't on my computer since they upgraded last week!)

Hugs and smooches back at ya, gal!
Hi DocNDswamp,
About to beat feet out of here when I saw you blog pop up. lol. Had a surprising little T-storm overhead last eve. Now back to scheduled programming.

Have a great day!

Finn, Finn. Wow. Good to see you, and good to see Paul McCartney. Lucky duck you were to be at the concert.
Good Wednesday Barefoot!

Hmmm, only 1 tstm? Durn... those W OK skies gonna hafta do better than that! LOL... Keep fanning it this a way, I'll regret saying this later, but - need rain! ;)

Yeah, same here... having to hit / run lately (and barely doing that!), getting way busy... Lot of wx to talk about but little time to discuss (or cuss it) of late...

Have a good 'un BF!
I'm heading out too...
Well we are continuing our streak of sub-80 highs. But Central Park has hit 90 today! And they are on an island too, and I bet the water there is colder than it is here. Crazy!

Central Park: Link
St. Simons I: Link

And maybe Boston! Link
Good day, Thu Apr 8!

The semi-muggy 80's are history for now...
Back to cooler below avg temps w lower dewpoints / low humidity next few days... as cold front has passed, bringing some welcome rains overnight / early morn, now shifting EWD, and cold air advection was notable this morn on NW winds... Well, the rains weren't significant here - had .34" at home / .17" amt at HUML1 - but did help wash a little of the heavy oak pollen off that's coating / choking everything... No additional rain in our forecast, so a dry April will resume for foreseeable future... with moderating temps to norm levels thru next week, as another trof digs over west coast / ridge builds across S tier albeit minus the quality of warmth associated with the last... Below avg lows in 40's-50's next couple days to generally 50's lows / 70's highs rising to near 80 in spots expected thru next week... SLY return flow as sfc high shifts EWD next week not too impressive in moisture... So, unless you need rainfall - a great stretch of nice sunny weather ahead! LOL, I smell the familiar scent of... Spring drought!

(edit) - to the above, better moisture / highest POP will be into E MX / deep S & W TX...

*****

Heya SSI,
LOL, ya might make it into May before seeing that 80F!
Yes, incredible warmth in NE coastal region yesterday, as they were under the crown of the deep-layered ridge, getting steadily swept farther offshore now... I noted the 18Z GFS depiction had pocket of 18C or higher 850 mb temps centered there, the warmest anywhere outside of N Cen Mexico...

Man, it was a very muggy, oppressive feeling 72 at midnight ahead of the front here... but starting a fresh "under-80" streak today, lol...
Good morning Doc,
!
Yes the spring like weather has been wonderful; however, many places in the NE were much warmer than we were down here. LOL but I'll take it.

Wanted to pop in and say
Have a great weekend!


Sunday Apr 11th greetings,

Hey Gams, darn I missed ya visit on Friday...
Thanks for the lovely Spring flower!
Hope your weekend has been nice, well up until the wx today popped up that is... Noting a lot of shwrs / some possibly strong tstms across S FL as disturbance comes across... Nonetheless, hope you're enjoying the day!

***

We missed out on the surprise shwrs / tstms that affected Houston area yesterday morn, fizzled out to a few drops not enough to be a nuisance as got here near sunset, much less wash away the dang oak pollen coating everything in gold...

Back to sunny skies, a few passing cirrus / fair wx clouds... mild temps in mid 70's, low humidity in 30% range... NE / E winds 8-15 becoming more 10-18 w higher gusts... Long fetch of sfc easterlies become entrenched across Gulf region this week around S periphery of building ridge pattern, some mod increase in humidity and temps expected, dry locally outside of a brief stray shwr chance perhaps midweek that hardly appears mentionable... w most concentration of moisture / precip activity over S to W TX w num short waves in the S jet next couple days...

Off into the breezy sunshine,
Cheers!
Hi DocNDswamp,
Darn! I was hoping those thundershowers would hold out till they reached your territory.

Pretty slim chances of rain for me this week. But at least some chances tonight/tomorrow. And again Friday-too far ahead for me to think about. lol

Enjoy the sunshine!
Hiya Barefoot!

Yes, we coulda used a little, lol...
At least you have a respectable shot at some rain, with models arcing the moisture over S and W TX toward ya a bit, esp as next trof approaches / passes close to ya... Should be a while getting it here, rather typical for April though.

Read you accomplished quite a bit of writing, good job! Know that must feel satisfying...

LOL, running a little behind getting out today... Left a train-related post at Shore's blog, which meant I got caught up reading / reliving memories on the subject...

Have a great aftn / eve, BF!
Heres that Buoy Ball Doc that washed up against the RR tracks in Rudduck,La from Katrina in 05.

I couldnt budge it with a cypress log so itsa Heavy thing,...old too from the welds...and rust.

I dont think this un was from the Lake,..as Ive never seen one that Big in Lake P,so I wonder where its from?

It went thru 3 miles of Cypress Swamp to nestle up against the RR tacks.






Video of the Buoy and Debris field
Hi Doc,
No rain here yet. lol

Yes, I do feel good about getting this screen story drafted-finally. About to start the home stretch. The process, always awesome because I go places I've never dreamed of-well, at least not consciously. Will also be the tedious rewrite and edit process-not nearly as fun but must be done. Oh, must tell you. There's a character from Houma in it! lol A nine year old boy. A weather-crazy kid he is.
:)
Good Tuesday, Apr 13!

Coolish nights / warm days with mostly sunny skies, NE-SE breezy winds, low-mod humidity... and dry April wx about sums it up as ridge pattern holds sway for N Gulf region... (edit) GFS hinting ridge pattern may break down next week, allowing return for more zonal flow, passage of disturbances / frontal boundary to drape over area bringing a wetter forecast back into the picture then and thru latter half month...

***

Hey Pat,
Man, that's an old buoy... no telling where it came from... Perhaps was at an old camp or house on or near the lake if wasn't in it... LOL, yeah it looks HEAVY! Ya got me google-searching for clues, only thing close I found was this image of a new ball buoy appears about same size...

Hiya Barefoot,
Your forecast today looks windier than mine! Yep, most rain seems will be W or N of ya with current approaching system...

Sounds good you're reaching the final stretch on your script! Ahhhh, editing... always a tedious prospect, although rewording or rephrasing often brings equal satisfaction if better reveals / enhances your vision!
Best wishes to ya!

***

Speaking of which - among usual busy Spring duties, etc occupying my time, just learned a local ongoing Bayou Terrebonne dredging project is about to resume after being on hold... Saw the permit renewal application under review with USACE / DEQ, etc... but the 20 day public comment period expired Sun Apr 11, my luck a day late after I took my eye off the ball for a couple weeks... However, a letter detailing my concerns / objections may yet get written, sent as LTE / Op-Ed, from several previous rough draft attempts dating back to Winter... If I can correlate those thoughts cohesively, lol...

Sadly, our local paper and parish govt have provided no detailed info on the aspects / any potential negative impact it will have, as they go forward with this bloated project alledged to improve drainage (while wrecking established bankside habitat)... I did voice my concerns with several parish govt officials, Corps supervisors and other managing agencies a few months ago... LOL, not that it matters what I may say as in my life I've seen about ANYTHING justified in the name of "drainage improvements"!

So, among all that, may be MIA here on WU for a bit...

Our sub 80 degree streak continues. We have a chance of breaking it Wednesday, but if we don't a back door cold front will keep us below 80 for several more days from Thursday on.
Good eyes you still got Doc, spotting me in the 40.000 strong crowd LOL
Glad to see you're well and enjoying good food (had to protect the laptop from an outburst of drool when I read about the crayfish and crabs - OMG!)
We've had a fantastic winter here in SEFL - a real winter with sweaters and heating on for weeks and weeks... oh, wait a minute... I spent 2 weeks in Finland, now THAT was WINTER with snow piles 20ft high and -15F temps. I think the coldest we got here in West Palm Beach was 33F so our garden was speared from frost by 2 degrees :) Skye, Aqua and folks up North had a rough one.
With such great temps there's been a streaker running around our neighborhood. I look the other way when he runs past my house, don't want to embarrass him, ya know our friend Sub goes crazy enjoying the cold and yet likes to be anonymous... LMAO
J and pups are well, thanks for asking. Good to have them in my life, would be bored to death without them chasing me around the yard begging me to play with their balls (will I get banned for this?)
I don't want to burden your blog with another video, so I'll just post it on my blog. Gotta put up a new one anyway, Xmas is wayyyyy over! The song is called "Song of the Weather" and it's from the greatest comedians and song writes ever, Michael Flanders and Donald Swann, both long gone to join the Great Chorus :) but some guy sings it on Utube and I love it. So English!
71.0 F Mostly Cloudy - NICE!
Pssst - hey BF & Pat!
Double Kiss
Tax Day Greetings, Thu Apr 15...

Okay, not the most pleasant of thoughts, is it...

Weatherwise, back to warm / dry forecast after yesterday's little tease, which the GFS did a fine job forecasting, both on timing / location and motion... Had nice moisture advection off Gulf, a weak low-mid level feature that aided in lift as it drifted NW around the periphery of the ridge combined with efficient daytime heating... But no rain locally as expected... Was a neat day for cloud watching - started daybreak with some patchy mid-upper alto and cirrocumulus blowing off the persistent Rio Grande disturbance with sun poking thru, then quickly had an almost overcast low level stratus field develop off the Gulf and encompass SE LA, oriented NE-SW lifting toward the NW... which translated to growing low-based cumulus with shwrs / a few tstms developing west of here in a arc from near Morgan City into SW MS... LOL, actually saw some columns of towering cumulus develop by mid aftn but nada rainfall... Feature lifted across LA before croaking near sunset with loss of daytime heating, dissipating mid level feature and dry air / capping reestablished from the ridge... Quite a summery feel locally with higher humidity and plentiful sunshine as we reached our warmest reading yet - 82F... Should be close to that or so next couple days...

Strong subsidence under the ridge back in place today despite high LL moisture in the breezy E / SE flow... Abundant rainfall expected to overspread TX / OK with an advancing trof trying to edge out the ridge but little in way of rainfall chances locally until this weekend and that remains questionable... Perhaps Sat night into Sunday with frontal passage, although may build across / drop down shunting the moisture supply S and E, esp with series of weak Gulf lows passing well to our S concentrating the moisture... The repeating ridge pattern over E 1/2 US since Apr began should be breaking down to more of a broad trof, more zonal or progressive pattern which could allow next 10 days or so of Apr to become cooler w better rain chances... We will want to keep our eyes on the model runs for next week - esp toward the weekend as the GFS has been insisting a very deep and strong system could be impacting a large area as it moves across, potentially with severe wx and hvy, flooding rainfall should this verify... Yeah, you betcha - just in time to make the 1st weekend of JazzFest (Apr 23-25) a mud-wallowing experience! Usual caveats apply - we're still talking 7-10 days out...

Atlantic Tropics remain as quiet as expected for April... We'll look for any dramatic changes next month in the upper level flow, and for a more pronounced development in the AB high which has been very weak and transitional... Meanwhile, unless a subtropical oddity pops up, the strong and unfavorable mid and upper level westerlies remain well entrenched down to 10-15N... Still seeing a healthy southern branch subtropical jet stream flow... Any mid level subtropical ridging has been short-lived and suppressed equatorward from the persistent westerlies (although we do see upper ridging / mid level reflection trying to build NWD from northern portion Eastern South America across the lower MDR - and roughly centered near or E of Windwards as has done several periods thru Winter / Spring)... Yeah, we'd love to have this hold thru Summer into Aug-Sep - or at least force or leave a more chaotic, broken mid-upper stream flow in place over the MDR to offset those favorable warm SST's... ;)

***

SSI, you're on a roll with the coolth... tomorrow (Fri) should be your warmest yet, and ya might still not see 80F!

***

Hey Finn!
Well you got to enjoy a cold S FL Winter... AND some REAL Winter in the homeland! Glad it's been going well for you and family... Was a cold one here like most everybody had - officially 3 Jan morns in a row with 22F low, although my home reading dropped to 20F on coldest and to 18F at Mom's location... Totaled 13 freezes (31F or lower) and 28 frosts - the later, a new record tally by my observations since mid-late 80's, beating the prior high number of 26 frosts in '95-96...

ROTFLMAO!
Dang, I know that rockin' subtropic loves to celebrate the cold wx, but... hope he was riding "Donkey" when he went parading about in da buff! LOL... Hey, I'll have to check out your blog and that song, sounds interesting... Running short on the blog allotment time presently...
Thanks again, m'friend!

Gotta fly, folks...
LOL, added above as blog update...

Jeeez.... just gandered at end runs of 12Z GFS at 500-200 mb to end April - like several previously, actually increases those unfavorable shearing westerlies farther south over the MDR equatorward... once again, blowing away the poleward ridging set up mentioned earlier... Obviously this is one parameter I'm more curious about in the early going, not overly alarmed with record-warm SST's (although notable)...

While E Pac might wake up under better conditions, generally in line with early season climatology... Wouldn't be outta the realm to see some tropical activity try develop on either side of Panama to Nicaragua by then...

Okay, really out this time...
G'day to yas!
Okay, so I have no idea what Matha is singing, which is ashamed, since I really am a good little Cajun Girl...Oh Well...
Hello AJC'sMom,

Hmmm, an interesting performance... Well no wonder, she's singing in Parisian french, not Cajun! LOL... Okay, I googled it - "It's Always the Same Story" by Edith Piaf...

***

High of 80F today, with strong ESE winds 10-20 with higher gusts, peaked at 30 mph... warranting SCA's over Gulf waters thru Fri... Plentiful rains stuck across TX, doubtful any will reach here, even with frontal passage by Sat eve / Sunday... Other than crops / gardens needing rain, windy conditions hindering fishermen and hvy pollen / dust issues noted, pleasant SE LA April wx continues...
Good morning, DocNDswamp.
Thanks for dropping by the Dust Bowl last night. If you want, I'll try to send today's OK rain down your way. lol Like I could.

unfavorable shearing westerlies farther south over the MDR equatorward. That sounds inhibitive, right?

Gotta run. Have a good Friday and a great weekend!
Good morning Barefoot,

LOL, you'll prolly get tired of rain before we get much here... I shouldn't sound as I'm complaining, at least been getting maintenance work done on our property without the wet hindrance... Just, cough, cough, could use a little cleansing wash without dealing with a flood... Also noted, last few runs are backing away from da big deluge to N Gulf coast by next weekend I mentioned with that slow approaching deep low / trof, although I'm sure you wont be shorted in OK as heaviest activity still indicated N and W of here...

Yes, those westerlies are an inhibiting factor, but nothing too unusual for late Apr / early May other than seems somewhat persistent in digging farther S.. and of course, those depictions that far off are highly speculative / changeable... Really means little as an indicator of the tropical season unless were to hang on and that's quite unlikely given the expectations toward neutral ENSO / lower shear implications, but will be watching... Just looking for hints at the sfc-mid-upper evolution that's bound to come...

Right now, the CSU forecast of 15-8-4 is a very reasonable early forecast, and in line with current warm AMO period of above average TC's since mid-90's... It would be a great surprise to see a repeat of last year's low activity...

A great Fri / weekend back at ya!
Seems a tad bumpy down dere Doc,..heading up towards Jazz Fest looks like..



Hiya Pat,

Yeah unfortunately just as was forecast since last week... EXPLOSIVE development underway w some nasty cells popping!
One more cell just SW nearing Houma now is concerning - saw some weak rotation when was 15 miles below, but w range-folding issues, the velocity mode was useless at last check... Quickly lifting over now... Have to see if we get a break after this 1st wave lifts NEWD... redevelopment easily as possible... Atmospheric capping was weak, easily broken in our region given other favorable parameters...

BBL...
Coming closer now here...Lotsa Lightning and Thunder...

Spring comes in fer Jazz Fest Opening day.

Hope the Poncho sales were brisk.
LOL, poncho salesmen should do well at da Fest!

One more cell to get through in the early going - wasn't too bad here, but noted pea-size hail briefly, gusty winds, lightning... So far about 4/10th's inch rain...

LOL, looks like KLIX finally woke up after it's already hit here... Moving towards NOLA, y'all -

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
202 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL LAFOURCHE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHERN ST. CHARLES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT

* AT 159 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF DES ALLEMANDS...OR 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAROSE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE INDICATED PARISHES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER... PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

&&

*********

Appears this activity bloomed as a mini-warm front lifted NE... Might have a break this aftn awhile, as capping inversion returns from SW temporarily... Nasty humid air in the wake of storms! Sure is a large plume of tropical moisture heading this way from SW Gulf...

Good luck all!


Hi DocNDswamp,
I see you had t-stormy wx today. Tomorrow, too? Stay safe.

And what the heck is that big round gray thing doing on your IR-in the EPAC off Costa Rica?

Have a great weekend!
Howdy Barefoot!

Yes, had enough excitement with round one today - classic quick explosive development, LOL... Haven't checked much since got in late this eve, but see new line breaking out over S TX, promising more nastiness as advertised!

BTW, glad the storms passed uneventfully for you last night... Saw strong stuff near Childress around 10:30 Thu night, but more or less went linear after, then weakened as reached you... At least I think it did? I almost suggested something against the grain for ya - going to bed with your shoes on! LOL, I think I fell out before could respond last night!

Ahhh yes... A nice blow-up of convection there... Central America to S MX, home of the freshly developing monsoon trof that will plague them well into May with the prospect of sustained life-threatening flood events, regardless if a bonafide tropical cyclone (or 2) emerges from it... Appears multiple lows will try spinning up, as usually do from such... Noted some of the past day's runs from GFS were back / forth on development, but worth watching... Heck it's been showing this set up for past 10 days or more, and I think most of us expect early TC activity to start there... Climatology says it's near time for E Pac and to have one pop up in the SW / W Caribbean is not too out-of-line either... LOL, I don't like the similarity to 2008 shaping up...

Gotta run,
Have a G'nite!

Good morning Doc,

Hope you are getting some good weather laer today after these morning shower leave...

it is the weekend finally!
Of course I am at work today but I will enjoy the next 4 days!

Myspace Comments
Weekend Glitter Graphics - 2.0 Myspace Layouts
guess I won't be getting any snow today unless it is in the form of hail!..lol

p.s..Good morning Doc!
Good day!

So far so good locally as all the severe wx - in fact most rain - has remained N and E of here, as strongest tstms w hail to 1.75" / tornadic cells began developing over N shore quickly shifting EWD, moving across MS / AL this morn - notable hook echo on cell tracking below Hattiesburg earlier near 10-11 AM... Have not even had measureable rainfall, barely enough to wet streets since overnight, as tstms were popping up just to the east... Questionable whether we see any significant redevelopment, noting a very few shwrs broadly over area still but looking less likely as appears dry air punching in from west... Local winds have shifted from S to SW over past hr or so... Seems tornado watch 92 will expire as planned by 1 PM here... All hvy activity quickly focused toward coastal AL and esp into mid-South...

And jeeez, what a humid, muggy air mass this morning with very high dewpoints, our "low" this morn was a mere 75F! Some drying expected later, but a warm Sunday on tap before cooler air filters in for Mon-Tue...

***

Hiya Gams, happy Saturday at ya!
Yes, looking a bit better here - worst has been as largely expected above... This was a complicated system for forecasters to pin down local impacts, and I'm not complaining if I missed out!
Hope your workday goes smoothly and enjoy your days off!

Hey Ally!
What??? You haven't gotten any snow from this one???
Neaux Sneaux, hail yeah! Best wishes you miss that too as see the tstms over ya now and a couple more yet - a nasty cluster nearing the coast to your SW coming...
Good luck, gal!
However... Tornado Watch 95 freshly issued DOES include all of SE LA across coastal areas of NW FL till 8 PM tonight, with Terrebonne on extreme western fringe so we'll see if anything materializes... Best chances should be EWD over AL-FL this aftn...
Be careful so many tornado watches out there.
Terrible reports of widespread major damage and injuries running from extreme NE LA all across entire width of Cen MS from long-tracked tornadic cell, presently near West Point, about to enter AL...

Not sure how long this will show here, but this was Velocity loop of event... (red/orange-green/blue couplet wanes as goes beyond Jackson radar, but clearly continues viewed from W AL radar... Saved a file of same to hard drive...

Prayers for all who suffered thru this...

BBL...
Was like watching a slow train wreck Doc.

Yazoo City East side took a direct strike from the wedge.

Bad indeed.

I saved a "smoothed" file from earlier.





Good aftn Pat,

Yes, unfortunately just as bad as was outlooked for MS... you're right, a slow-motion train wreck indeed... Incredible how long-tracked that puppy has been... TWC been posting videos / reports of widespread destruction... Just terrible...

On the brighter side, we got off easy over most of SE LA, other than N shore earlier this morn... If we can call it a blown forecast, we'll take it! Was lot of high uncertainty with such a complicated system...
I'm sure we'll face more threats before this late-blooming severe season is over...
Then we'll have the tropics to contend with!
I had 2 NOAA Radios go off for the early watch in the am hours Doc,..and I couldnt find the button to silence the second one..so I yanked out the a/c jack.

But dem Batteries didnt mind atall.

Sadly..Im seeing them b-rolls and stills from Yazoo as well,..




LOL, yeah there's the beauty of those weather alert radios - they work! Well, unless ya yank the batteries out too... ;)

I gotta run a bit...
Glad ya stopped by Pat!
heavy tornadic activity in the south...

Weather radio a must have!!!

we're being spared so far here in central Illinois from this outbreak... which is unusual...

Doc... well I spoke to soon.. tornado watch just issued for Central Il...
Keep your eye on the sky, wab.

Hi Doc,
Glad the weather wasn't so bad today. Been one heck of a(n ongoing) outbreak.


Second day at the New Orleans Jazz Fest, Saturday, April 24, 2010
Added by John McCusker on April 24, 2010 at 6:31 PM

JOHN MCCUSKER / THE TIMES-PICAYUNE Art Garfunkel and Paul Simon perform at the Acura stage at the 2010 New Orleans Jazz and Heritage Festival presented by Shell Saturday, April 24, 2010.
Late check in...

Hey Wabit,
Great to hear from ya, bro! Hmmm, well not good hearing of any more severe wx - hope nothing serious came of it... I see the main low swirling over your area tonight... Yeah, this was a terrible outbreak across the South, esp MS... At last check MS Emergency officials reporting 10 deaths, count could go higher...

Hello Barefoot,
Actually turned out quite nice late aftn as skies cleared... and it's cooler this eve - falling thru mid 60's, lot better than that miserably muggy 75 this morn!

Hiya Pat,
A lot better day at da Fest!
Oh man, that's a classic view... of two classy performers! Sunday wx looks awesome for the Fest... or anything outdoors across SE LA... ;)
Hey Doc,
You gotta turn that really big fan of yours off. Look at all the stuff that is getting blown around.

Seriously who would have believed that a lion would have come roaring out of the gates with such a nice quiet Spring that we were having.
74. hunu
Hiyas, Doc,

Everything nice and quiet down here on the bayou. Found some fine folks, but decided the first place I looked at was a little small.
Besides, I like a porch to sit on ;-)

Photobucket
Hiya, Doc,

Was just reading the forecast put out for the offshore waters. Pretty grim reading. Here's what I found.

Oil Slick to Come Ashore with Southerly Winds

Two national wildlife refuges are directly in the path of the oil. Starting on Thursday, the seas will be too rough for an effective effort to contain the oil spill, moving north under a strong and consistently southerly wind.
The National Weather Service has issued the following advisory for the site of the Deepwater Horizon, the offshore oil drilling rig that exploded and sank in the Gulf of Mexico one week ago this evening:

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRACK ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL SUPPRESS WINDS AND FLATTEN SEAS. AS THIS RIDGE
CONTINUES EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT BACK TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS HIGH WILL SETTLE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RESULTING WINDS
BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES, SPOT AREA, WILL BE STRONG PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF AT LEAST 20KTS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION, EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO A PEAK OF
8-11 FEET DURING THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS WEEKEND, AT THIS TIME IT
DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT WILL PUSH THROUGH UNTIL POSSIBLY EARLY
TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THUS, SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

The practical upshot: Winds will be coming from the south starting tomorrow all the way through into next week, pushing the growing crude oil slick into Louisiana’s coastline. Two national wildlife refuges are directly in the path of the oil. Starting on Thursday, the seas will be too rough for an effective effort to contain the oil spill.

The effort to prevent landfall of this oil spill has failed.

What’s at stake:

As of 1:30 PM this afternoon, the oil spill was 21 miles from the Delta National Wildlife Refuge, 69 miles from the Breton National Wildlife Refuge, and 69 Miles from the Bon Secours National Wildlife Refuge. Also in the path of the growing oil spill are the Gulf Islands National Sea Shore, and the Fort Pickens State Park Aquatic Preserve.


Hey MNT!

Appears more on the way this weekend for some... getting closer to you as Spring progresses!

Hiya hunu!

Ah yes... seems I've seen that porchless oyster shack down Theriot way... What were they thinking? Can't shuck 'em comfortably in da sun! OtherBug must have had quite the whirlwind adventure down da bayou...
;)
Well good evening Shore!

Hope your having a pleasant eve on this late April date!

Oh I know, it's a terrible tragedy on all counts... Updates are on local news constantly...
The oil leak has been revised from 1,000 bbl/day to 5,000 bbl/day.
Just getting a few chores done. Barefoot says she's getting wind already, and they're forecasting us to have gusts to 40 tomorrow.
It's a shame, because those building seas are just going to put an end to remediation efforts.

Good to see you pop up - have a good evening!
Hiya SSI,
Yes and nowhere near getting it closed off with difficulties working so deep with robot subs... Gotta be a nightmare attempting to... Additional rough seas w SLY winds coming sure will speed up intrusion into marsh wetlands... Have to hope perhaps adding more dispersant will alleviate some... Miles of absorbent boom have been put in place around some areas - they'll need miles more of it...
Shore,
Yes I bet Barefoot is getting those winds already... will be ripping over a wide region for days on end...

Same back at ya, gal!

Hey Pat,
Thanks for da graphic... LOL, and it's quite graphic in implication!
Its the Big One Doc,..and it aint even June 1.

Dem Se Winds are gonna be a problem..too, then those Sw un's will do the nasty on a lotta real estate
Ya know it's a terrible issue to deal with anytime, in a way wish if was gonna happen it would have back a month ago... when had calmer winds, or NLY winds... Heck, who knows maybe the high winds will actually help break it up if they spread enough dispersant.

LOL, I'm such a dork... when updated, I compose in text edit, then copy / paste it here... and I left out my E Pac tropical disturbance thoughts at the end... Oh well no biggie, still looks about same as mentioned a week ago - slim chance in early going for low center to consolidate over next few days from that convergent monsoonal gyre off the ITCZ, esp with interaction / close proximity to mountainous terrain... But abundant hvy tropical downpours likely for Cen Am... LOL, as usual, long range hints at better chance for sustained development to come...
E Pac tropical season begins May 15...

Later!

85. hunu
hiyas, Doc,

I believe I might have to hang on to the BugNDSwamp handle - that's some fine country you have. I'll bet you know the places I just posted pics of pretty well.

Here's one I thought might tickle you.

Photobucket
Hello Doc,

Been keeping on eye on your area and hoping for the best!
Thu aftn greetings,
Gonna hafta make this quick as can...

Heya hunu-OtherBug,

Thanks for rig image, appropriate enough with the current circumstances! Took a quick gander at the views you posted - awesome, nice documentary of your swamp venture from L Decade up Liner's Canal - that weir / dam is a hot spot at times for sac-a-lait, catfish, bass, etc piling up in the 10-12' hole gouged out to ambush forage flowing thru from Lake Penchant... will respond further a bit later...

Hi Gams,
Yes... will need lots of hope and huge effort as luck not on our side... an epic disaster ongoing as might be summer before can get leaks stopped as they'll have to drill another into it, a relief well to get it shut off... This environmental impact could rival the Valdez - and it's likely worse considering it's gonna cover major seafood producing sensitive delta wetlands... and unlike a solid beachfront shoreline, will be harder to contain across these irregularly shaped, patchy, broken wetlands... Gov Jindal declared state of emergency today to help pool resources, get as much assistance as possible in short order... Terrible in all aspects... can't even wrap my brain around the worst case, but major losses of aquatic marine life likely... No telling how happened, but suspect immediate answer was lost with the workers killed - I'm sure communications logs / work being performed right before the explosion are being intensely reviewed...

Weather -
SLY return flow well underway w winds 12-20, gusts so far to 27 mph here, with shallow cumulus field over area... Some big changes with last 12Z GFS run from previous - moves timing of frontal progression ahead by full day for local impacts, indicating very hvy rains / tstms moving across Sun-Mon, with more a wind shift / drier air mass behind it than a notable cool down as front passes Mon eve, leaving warm air in place... Stronger cold front indicated with next system later in week... Haven't had time to check much else, ie, severe potential...

BBL as can...
Added:

The frontal speed up would help in containment operations however, as shows light N winds by early Tuesday...

Outta curiosity, found page detailing build specs / capacity of the Transocean Deepwater Horizon rig for anyone interested...

Later...
Hiyas Doc. Bug is hunu? I am so behind! Looks like she is having fun in LA now though. Was in your fair state last weekend. Anyhow, just a drop by to thank you and give you a kudos for all your ranting these past 5 years over your wetlands being raped and pillaged by those who only care about about the almighty dollar. Sad that this disaster may just make your previous words heard. Thank you from all the Gulf Coast residents for your unfailing railing against what should have never been. I know drilling and construction is a large livelihood over there, but dang sure don't want it for your area, nor further east to mine now! We've been destroyed by condos on the beaches. Just saw this morning before work that other countries instill an auto cutoff that the US has not thus far. In favor of the crew shutting the rig down. More $$ would have been taken out of the company bottom line that way. Heaven forbid, big companies lose a dollar at the cost of "just" eleven men, and an eco disaster for many states! Better go now, I feel the need to turn the air blue. Don't need another ban. This one WOULD be my doing however. :-)
Good evening Code,

Heck no, don't get ya self banned again!

Well I hear ya, and know everyone is mortified on the impact the spill will have... And yeah, been railing on one issue or another with the oil companies for decades... But as you mentioned with beach condos ruining habitat, overdevelopment / land rape has been my greatest concern of late that I'm arguing against as it's reaching an extent that most are failing to understand what the consequences will be... The absolute need for adequate green space / habitat preservation is totally ignored in the greedy rush into environmental suicide we call "progress"... And THAT is coming from one who spent over 30 years of my life working in residential construction, making a living helping "grow" my community, lol...

But back to the oil spill, seriously (got to play devil's advocate a bit here), what are we to do? Ban drilling altogether would be unrealistic... Hell, we all need oil... I'm sure stricter regs will result to minimize a repeat of such event, but there will always be a threat of failure or danger involved with any kind of mining operation...

Lot of us are curious why ALL the shut off valve mechanisms failed, which is redundant with back up systems already... Vast majority have worked in past... Yep, lot of discussion of the acoustic switch / remote shut off system used elsewhere (as mandated by Brazil and Norway), but no way knowing it would have worked either... In this article "Could Additional Safety Device Have Prevented Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill?", (which quotes WSJ article) it was stated that -

"According to a report in The Wall Street Journal, an acoustic switch is a remote control device that a crew can use in an attempt to trigger an underwater valve that shuts down a well that’s damaged. The switch is meant as a last resort, as the primary shut-off systems almost always work on wells when they are out of control. It can be triggered from a lifeboat if an oil platform has to be evacuated.

According to the Journal, U.S regulators did consider requiring the acoustic switch on offshore wells, but drilling companies resisted because of its cost, and questions about its effectiveness. To be fair, the switches have never been tested in real-world situations, only simulations. U.S. regulators also maintain they are prone to causing unnecessary shutdowns."


So who knows... No doubt plenty of blame will be spread around and will be thoroughly vetted... I kinda think the inherent problem may be more related to complicated difficulties involved with drilling in very deep water, like we have off mouth of the river... just dunno...

Right now, it's terribly upsetting, we all agree... Just another sad episode in the lengthy history of mankind's negative enviro impacts to this region, especially Louisiana which has been sacrificed for decades... some for needs, lot for greed... :(

Praying for a miracle as watch it unfold... latest report heard on news past 1/2 hr is some of the oil has begun reaching the coast this eve...

Will see what tomorrow brings,
Gotta get some rest tonight, was up past 4 AM last night, lol...
91. hunu
G'day, Doc!

It's another sad day for your state, but we can't have all sad. Here's a little wakeup music for you from Mr. Whitney Broussard, who just happens to be one of my new favorite people!



And by the by, all those valves in the Cameron yards east of US 90 in Morgan City make sense now. Knew they were valves & figured they were oilfield. Just didn't know Cameron was connected to Deepwater Horizon or what all those valves might be for. Sure have learned a lot about shut-off systems in a short time. Appreciated that note about the acoustic switches being untested, too. Some folks are throwing that phrase around like it was THE ANSWER but the system never was installed purely because of cost.

Another interesting tidbit - Halliburton was responsible for the cementing of the rig, and they've had their problems with that process. BP and Halliburton both have track records that make it a little hard to cut them slack in this whole thing.

Well - as the ol' hippies in Austin used to say, Onward through the fog!
Good morning hunu-OtherBug!

Thanks, needed something to lighten the mood... that's a character there slappin' spoons with his rendition!

And last night's full moon was a nice view, with SLY winds blowing patches of streaming very low level stratus off Gulf offering both a serene sight and at same time, an ill wind portending gloom... sigh...

And thanks for the article link... Seems we're getting some of the best info from WSJ... likelihood of poor cementing at that depth does raise suspicion... sad if, with all the things Hallibuton is involved in, their expertise in oil production has become questionable too...

*****

Something else trying to clarify is what type oil this is - initially assumed was what we hear as Louisiana sweet crude, a light crude oil a bit more evaporative / less difficult to address and breaks down quickly... Then read it described as a heavier type with more higher content solids...

In this article "Experts: Most of the Gulf Oil Spill Won't Be Cleaned Up" we read Edward Overton, a professor emeritus of environmental sciences at Louisiana State University describe -

"But not all oils are created equally. At first, reports suggested the oil leaking into the Gulf was standard Louisiana crude oil, a type of oil that biodegrades pretty well, Overton said. But sample testing revealed that the leaking oil was a different type, one that contains a very high concentration of components that don't degrade easily, called asphaltenes, according to Overton. He estimates that the concentration of these asphaltic components could be as high as 50 percent in this oil spill, while in other types of crude oil it might be as low as 1 or 2 percent.

"That is bad, bad news, because this oil is going to be very slow to degrade," Overton said today.

Some of the oil sinks to the sea bottom, where it can get buried into an anaerobic zone where there's no oxygen. Oil in these zones stays in a chemically reduced form and doesn't degrade as much, Overton said. But, he added, there's not much life down there to be contaminated. "


Sounds like a gummy mess could remain indefinitely...
The article mentions the other methods to be employed addressing the leak / shutting it off... Sheesh, must be a million Google links on this disaster already...

Every major news outlet covering, including TWC with Julie Martin reporting down in my town of birth in the delta, Port Sulphur (Plaquemines Parish)... Also had a good interview earlier this morn with Kerry St P of the Barataria-Terrebonne National Estuary Program on possible impacts to estuaries / aquatic wildlife - habitat... Nothing encouraging at this point...
And in wx news...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
745 AM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

.UPDATE...
.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE ATMOSPHERE IS UNSTABLE AND SATURATED UP TO 6000
FEET...LIFTED INDEX VALUE IS -3.0 AND THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE IS 1.41 INCHES. A STRATUS DECK IS PRESENT NEAR 1200 FEET AND WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE QUICKLY SHIFTING AROUND TO THE WEST ABOVE 10K FEET...THE 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUE IS NEAR 300 M2/S2.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT FRI APR 30 2010/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 988MB LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTED ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS...MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THUS...WINDS REMAINED BREEZY ON LAND AREAS AND WINDY ON MARINE AREAS.

WINDS ON THE LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND AT MSY ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN GFS...MORE IN LINE WITH NAM WIND SPEEDS SO FAR. AT PQL...WIND SPEEDS ARE HIGHER THAN NAM AND GFS...BOTH MODELS SHOW WINDS AROUND 8 KNOTS FOR PQL FROM 06 TO 12Z. WIND SPEEDS WERE AROUND 11 KNOTS AT PQL THIS MORNING. THESE OBSERVATIONS HIGHER THAN MODELS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. IN ADDITION...TIDE LEVELS AT WAVELAND DID NOT FALL COMPLETELY OUT AT LOW TIDE DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AND THE WATER LEVEL IS A HALF FOOT HIGHER THAN FORECASTED THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...TIDE LEVELS OF 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THIS NOON TIME ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE...2 TO 3 FEET ALONG HANCOCK COUNTY COASTLINE. WILL UPGRADE HANCOCK FROM A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH TO A WARNING THIS MORNING.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL CREATE AN UNSTABLE ATM. POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO ARIZONA... WILL SLOWLY INCH EAST WITH THE DISTURBANCES REMAINING NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...AN INCREASE IN PW FROM LESS THAN AN INCH THURSDAY NIGHT TO 1.8 INCHES AREA WIDE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND SURF HEATING WILL CREATE SOME CONVECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MAIN TROUGH...A SURF LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH TEXAS THUS MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BL WINDS ACTUALLY FROM AROUND 23 KNOTS TODAY TO 28 TO 34 KNOTS OVER EXTREME NORTH GULF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MAY BE EXPANDED OVER THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...ATM WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.7 INCHES AND CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

THE MAIN TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY AND POOL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE AXIS FROM MEMPHIS TO LAKE CHARLES. BY SUNDAY MORNING...PW VALUES INCREASE UP TO 2.2 INCHES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. ERGO...EXPANDED LIKELY RAIN CHANCES MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND INCREASED RAINFALL TO 1 TO 1 AND HALF INCHES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ACCORDING TO GFS...COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTH ZONES. WILL NOT BE THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH LOWERING TEMPS MONDAY MORNING...BUT DID SHAVE TEMPS A TAD FOR MONDAY MORNING. A LINGERING BOUNDARY MAY KEEP CONVECTION ACROSS MISSISSIPPI COAST AND EAST ZONES MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH AND OVERTAKE THIS OLD SYSTEM TUESDAY...THUS DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY FORECAST SHOULD HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

Hiya Pat,

Some popping up already, eh?
Appears could get a tad bumpy this aftn...
Yes indeed.

Got a whiff last night around 11:30 of Louisiana Sweet Crude.

Was Like I was on the Chevron Rig again.

Oh, I heard that... or rather, smelled that, lol...

So far, kind of an underlying hint of it just detectable over here...
I'm thinking might purchase a bucket of oysters this aftn to enjoy while I can... fresh shrimp, crabs too before get tainted...

On a happier freshwater note - boiled crawfish selling for $1.99 / lb at Rouses now... down from Good Friday peak of $3.47 / lb...
Hi Doc,

You know, my Leo/Snake/Bro,
that might be a good idea.

Get the fresh seafood while you can.. it may be awhile before more is coming your way.

now we fear it could spread way farther than just the Northern GOM which is bad enough, but if it gets into the Gulf Stream that would be terrible...for even larger areas.
You know, I'm just thinking out loud here about something I know NOTHING about. Well, almost nothing. But....

The mention of the asphaltenes made me think about what happens with something heavy is suspended in a solution. Say, a bucket of sand and water at the beach. Let it sit for a while, and the sand ends up at the bottom and the water is clear.

So I went looking, and lo and behold, I found a whole bunch on asphaltene precipitation.

The abstract contains this introductory paragraph:

Asphaltenes are components of petroleum whose behavior and structure change with pressure, temperature and oil composition. In one of these changes, called precipitation, the asphatenes turn into solid form and separate from the rest of the oil. Unwanted asphaltene precipitation is a serious concern to the petroleum industry because asphaltenes plug up bore holes, add skin to the formation and can decrease or stop production in many cases.

Hmmmm... So. What if it were possible to use the tendency of asphaltenes to precipitate and solidify to plug up leaks? Instead of trying to get asphaltenes to stay suspended and keep flowing, get 'em to start clumping and skinning over. I'm just sayin'....

I wouldn't be at all surprised to know there's a petroleum engineer somewhere with his feet up on the desk and some bad coffee in his hand, thinking about this.
Howdy Gams,

Yes, the longer it continues spewing out such large volumes, the broader the areas to be impacted... although I'd guess the further it goes the more it would tend to break down over time / distance...

Hiya Shore,

Hmmmm... yeah, there's an interesting thought... No expert here either (lol, it was the rest of my family involved in petroleum business - nearly every uncle, cousin, my Dad, neighbors)... but I think that would refer to accumulation over period of time where it solidifies in piping / equipment... Tremendous pressure forcing it out of an open borehole right now... But hey, you betcha - lot of engineers are brain-storming for answers now...
Updated KLIX AFD / outlook -

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
332 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

.SHORT TERM...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH AN ELEVATED INVERSION THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THIS MARINE LAYER AIRMASS HAS KEPT A LOW STRATUS DECK IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS CLOUD DECK HAS SERVED TO INHIBIT MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...AS TEMPERATURES REMAINED A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. THIS MARINE LAYER SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MARINE ZONES AND THEN MOVE INLAND ON THE BACK OF STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. IN ADDITION...EVEN WITH THE STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN PLACE...THE ELEVATED INVERSION SHOULD LOWER A BIT TONIGHT...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG TO FORM ALONG THE COASTAL INTERFACE.

AFTER REVIEWING THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ELEVATED INVERSION WILL PERSIST INTO TOMORROW. GIVEN THIS...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. THESE CLOUDS WILL ALSO LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...IF THERE IS SOME BREAK IN THE CLOUDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND FORCING IS IN PLACE TO ALLOW FOR THE THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HAVE KEPT IN LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR TOMORROW TO REFLECT THE THREAT OF PRECIP. FORTUNATELY...IT APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TOMORROW DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A CONTINUED MARINE LAYER AIRMASS.

CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TOMORROW NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A CLASSIC HEAVY RAINFALL SCENARIO DEVELOPS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...COMBINED WITH NEAR PARALLEL FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...AND A DEEP MOISTURE FEED OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PROVIDE THE PERFECT SETUP FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES RISING ABOVE 2 INCHES...AND APPROACHING 2.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY EVENING. WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES IN PLACE AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY EFFICIENT PRECIPITATORS. WITH THE PARALLEL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...STORMS WILL TEND TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME REGION...ALLOWING FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE SAME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SHITS EAST TOWARD FLORIDA AND OUT INTO THE GULF WATERS.

.LONG TERM...

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL HAVE MOVED EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND FLORIDA. BEHIND THE FRONT...A DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWER HUMIDITIES AND COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE...DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. SOME WEAK ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR THE MARINE ZONES...AS STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS COMBINED WITH LARGE SWELLS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY SETTLE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND CALMER SEAS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A MORE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD REDEVELOP BY THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.AVIATION...

AN ELEVATED INVERSION AND RESULTANT MARINE LAYER HAVE KEPT LOW STRATUS IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MARINE LAYER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW... WHICH WILL ALLOW THE LOW STRATUS DECK TO PERSIST. IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MVFR RANGE POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z TOMORROW. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CLOUDS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY ROLL THROUGH THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS. HOWEVER...MORE POTENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SHARP REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&
BBC says one thing: Link

Politico says something else: Link


I've heard for years about petroleum-eating bacteria being used to clean oil spills. But I haven't heard about oil-eating bacteria being used to clean this spill. Here's a 5-year old link: Link

Is petroleum-eating bacteria a real solution now? Or is it one of those pie-in-the-sky ideas with a great future, and always will be?

Good day SSI,

Thanks for the links!

Ya know, I've read some about it in the past, but not clear on it's effectiveness, other than imagine it being another helpful tool over a long time period... LOL, having visions of pac-man microbes chomping thru it...

But WTH, turn 'em loose... we'll need every tool in the arsenal on this mess!
Rumor or real? Link

Not looking good: Link
Couldn't get the Huffington tweets to load...

Oh man... another rig flipping over is not good news at all... I remember the Tonkawa accident back in '85, that happened when the rig - way overloaded w drilling mud, and scraping the shallow bottom of Bayou Penchant - moved into deeper waters of Bayou Chene in W Terrebonne and flipped ... drowning 11 men sleeping as happened late night hrs... Found this old article when happened, and same with some pics (noted some NTSB report pdf's when searched too)... I rode to the accident site in my boat couple days after, a very ugly scene...

BBL tonight...
The rig that overturned was an inland rig on a barge. It was in the Charenton navigation channel just south of Morgan City. There's no evidence of fuel leakage but the site has been boomed off.

From Reuters:

An inland shallow-water drilling rig capsized near Morgan City, Louisiana, while being towed to a salvage yard, the Coast Guard said on Friday. There were no injuries, and navigation was not affected by the incident in the Charenton navigation channel south of U.S. 90 near Morgan City, Coast Guard spokesman Mike O'Berry said.

"This is not a major waterway," he said. "Nobody was on board. It was being towed."

The incident followed the April 20 explosion of the Transocean Deepwater Horizon in the Gulf of Mexico, in which 11 people died. The rig sank and a disastrous oil spill has ensued.

A 210-foot-long barge rig, which worked swampland and shallow water oil and gas prospects, was involved in Friday's incident, the Coast Guard said. It had a 20,000-gallon diesel tank but carried only about 200 gallons of fuel when it capsized. Spill containment boom was put around it as a precaution, the Coast Guard said.

O'Berry said the rig was owned by T. Moore Services in Franklin, Louisiana. A telephone call to the company was not returned.

(Reporting by Bruce Nichols)
108. hunu
Don't forget to get your best guesses in for Otherbug's contests before the deadline tomorrow! Details and a new clue are on hunu's blog - and here's a pic of the prizes!

Photobucket
Hi DocNDswamp,
An overturned rig yesterday? Gosh, I can't keep up with the news. And the oil spill, I don't know if I can think about or talk about that any more. Only wait and hope for the best in that ongoing saga. Too hard to absorb it all. So sorry it's affecting Louisiana.

Just wanted to stop in and let you know I've been following your posts at hunu's and enjoying them. Thanks.

Also checking on your weather. Rain. T-storms, maybe.

May Day, Lei Day in Hawaii. Have a good one!
Good morning Doc,

Still wishing and hoping and praying for the best situation to come from all this.. hopefully the wind will change direction quickly and blow this all back out in the middle of the sea and we can clean it up out there instead of on our shores.



It is Saturday, it is the Weekend!
Hope you get to enjoy and relax,

Gams


Gotta make a hit/run if to post at all...

Warm, very windy, very humid, under-a-blanket-of-overcast-stratus-since-Friday, Saturday May 1st greetings, for that's the local wx in a nutshell... with capping inversion, a few iso shwrs N of here... All serious wx concerns over mid-South, in E AR / N MS and esp w 1/2 TN where rains have piled up w reports of widespread 8-12" amts causing serious flooding... some strong / severe tstms and localized hvy rainfall possible as front draws closer by tomorrow, but again - sounds like a broken record - heaviest activity will be to N... At least Jazz Fest goers escaped a 2nd mud-wallowing, so far... one more day to go though and Sunday does look potentially wet...

Local April stats stayed as expected with no additional rainfall - much drier than normal, with HUML1 station the driest as it often is: a pathetic .66" amt on 3 rain days compared to NCDC 30 yr avg of 4.46"...
The station's monthly Mean Temp tallied 68.55F degrees, near our avg of 68.4... minimally above and statistically insignificant, but finally broke cold streak... LOL, was at 68.29F thru 29th but yesterday's warm MT of 76 spiked it upward... Coolest low: 45 on 9th, warmest high: 84 on 26th...

Certainly a warmer trend and warmth looks to stay with us thru next week with high temps projected to reach into mid-80's with a few locations near 90F until stronger cold front passes late week or next weekend... maybe, lol... At least calmer winds for a few days after this current system passes EWD by Tuesday, best wx expected Wed-Thu (drier, slightly cooler low temps)... should help containment efforts, but no sign of stopping the massive oil leak in sight yet as we watch it edge closer over Plaquemines / St Bernard Parishes and the MS / AL coasts... :(

As advertised, SLY winds have really been ripping near 20-30 mph today with higher gusts - HUML1 recorded a gust to 41.4 mph just before noon, highest it's had in months...

*****

Hiya Shore,
Thanks a bunch for providing those additional details on the inland rig toppling! Was only an initial quick blurb when SSI found it... Darn glad wasn't another horrible Tonkawa incident on top of current spill issue...

Howdy hunu,
Hmmmmmmm.... a piece of dried coral? No... Indian artifact? No... a weathered clamshell? No... Fish otolith? No... cross-section of rhizome from a Louisiana iris??? .. Oh Heck No, waaaay off and going in wrong direction now!...
LOL, might have to consider offering one more last-ditch-effort clue(s) on that bony-looking object! Contrary to popular belief, a lot of die-hard Cajuns may not immediately recognize it either... ;)
Sure is a wonderful prize for the winner! Good luck!
Really have enjoyed the mystery and fine posts / images of your trip down this way!


Hello Barefoot,
LOL, "May Day, May Day"... sure sounds appropriate doesn't it? But a greeting in return as well!

Yeah, same here... not much I can offer at this moment on the oil spill that ain't been said already... and wary now of relaying what I hear with the rumor mills / rampant speculation flying at full speed... As I've noted some "experts-in-their-field" may not be worth quoting... But a terrible tragedy anyway ya look at it, we'll just hafta wait / see the impact as becomes clear... I have "heard" on news, the application of dispersant at underwater source "seemed to work"... and the relief well rig has been positioned at the site...

Rain / tstms here? You said it well - "maybe"! LOL...


Hiya Gams,
Saturday greetings back at ya, gal!
Yep, can only hope / wish / pray for least impact possible...
And yes, I sure did... bought some oysters yesterday, but wonder / worry about our wetlands / seafoods future...

Gotta run all, thanks for posting!
Ugly and getting uglier with time...

113. hunu
Doc,

Been workin' away here, getting a last batch of pics ready to put up, and I'm laughing myself silly.

I wanted to be sure I had everything labeled properly - which bayou, which marsh, etc. In the process, I located where Miss Otherbug and I were when we were refused a photo for the first and only time. We were down at the very, very end of Shrimper's Row, there along Grand Calliou. This may help to explain a few things, including the reason the fellas gave for not wanting their photos taken. After all, one says, the po-lice might be lookin' at dem photos and know dey was still around. Uh-huh ;-)

They really were quite gentlemanly about it, but you could tell from the looks they were giving us it had been some time since a five foot paper doll had showed herself down at the end of Shrimpers' Row for a photo session! ROFLMAO!
My hubbie tells me things look okay for Cocodrie thus far with the oil spill...Is he right??? I have been wanting to rebuild in Pass Christian, Ms since Katrina knocked my home down. Had started right after the storm, but, a dishonest local contracter gambled my money away then declared he was bankrupt...What a farce...Anyway, a bunch of my neighbers are back, the yacht club is up along with some new resturants...Things were really coming together...Now this...Just saw on CNN that the Ship Island Ferry Captain is really worried...Me too...Ship Island was totally underwater in Katrina...It survived...Hopefully, it along with the rest of the Gulf Coast will pull thru this...
115. hunu
ajcamsmom ~ I just was in Cocodrie last weekend. From what I can tell that area looks fine right now. That's not to make any prediction about what will be happening a week from now, or a month. The amount of spillage, the currents, the frontal passages, the ability to get some technology going - all of it seem utterly unpredictable.

But, for now it looks all right. We'll see what Doc has to say.
Guess there have been some odd looks. It's not too often that a 5 foot paper doll shows up anywhere.

I've often wondered what all the Hubbies have thought, when their wives hosted Other Me for a visit. "Man, I love that woman but she can sure be strange, sometimes. I can't believe she's actually posing and taking pictures of that thing! Gimme another beer......"
Hunu. Thanks...and I like your porch date...post 74
"Hey Doc..Hell yes the Oil is still flowing out the riser"..!

Over?



An interesting article from the May 1 New York Times detailing missteps by both BP and the federal government in dealing with the oil spill: Link


For me, the most interesting part of the article is that apparently, the oil spill rate was very low the first few days and sped up as flowing oil pushed obstacles out of the way, enabling the flow to speed up. And up.

Extract from the article:

As oil edged toward the Louisiana coast, fears continued to grow that the leak from the seabed oil well could spiral out of control. One official at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, in a widely distributed warning on Friday, said the oil flow could grow from the current estimate of 5,000 barrels a day to "an order of magnitude higher than that."

That means a flow rate of 50,000 barrels a day! We all hope that doesn't come to pass.
ajcamsmom ~ Here's a link to an article in the Houma paper about the current situation in Terrebonne/LaFourche.
120...thanks, appreciate the link
Dang, we've had company!

LOL hunu,
All ya had to mention was Shrimpers Row, says it all... Understand their apprehension! Yes, some good folks down there - even the ones ya mentioned - that would give ya the shirt off their back or help in any way possible, hard working / hard partying folks that scrap out a living but outlaws in many ways too that live by their own rules... Lower Terrebonne communities of Dulac to Point Aux Chenes are traditionally Indian country (mixed thru the generations, of course)... One has to be cautious how ya present yourself and I'm sure y'all did... I bet they got a laugh as well!

Hey AJC'sMom,
Yes, much as depicted in that map I posted earlier, so far none of it has reached into the Barataria-Terrebonne Basin, as it's all moved mostly northward near mouth of river, paralleling the E LA coast and eastward as it's expanded last few days... Can only watch and hope for best as time passes, just as hunu mentioned, unpredictable to know what will happen as long as it continues gushing oil for weeks on end... Much as elsewhere, everyone is on alert, monitoring it carefully drawing contingencies, readying personnel / training volunteers, etc...

Yes, I remember from previously the suffering ya went thru and well after, so sad... Equally, don't want to see this nasty mess covering anywhere...

Just an awful nightmare come true...
Someway... we'll survive this too!
(trying to be optimistic while scared sh*tless!)

Hey RealBug!
ROTFLMAO!!!
Now we know the REAL reason those Cajun Injuns refused to get in the pic... It wadn't da law... deys' womenfolk was watchin'!!! Yeah, the ones with the beer bottles in hand... ;)

LOL Pat,
Alright, a federal response finally as now we see the Navy's contribution...
Thought they would deploy the SEALS, they brought in their dolphins!!!

Hey SSI,
Man, no we can only hope it doesn't... but we're in unknown territory with a (near total?) failure at 5000 ft down! Yeah, the early poor estimate of severity, red tape, slow decision making process with both the govt / BP wasted precious time, as always seems...

Some interesting reading also from the NYTimes links from the brain trust analyzing issues / solutions... One of 'em I've wondered about being of the base / seabed integrity, freshly re-cemented prior to the blowout... a less optimistic chance for any quick solution if it's screwed...

Hiya Shore,
Thanks for offering that Courier link!
123. hunu
Hiya, Doc,

Yep, we got some interesting background from Wendy about the "personalities" of different bayous and the populations who live along them. Her husband's part Houma, and we learned a lot about Indians that I didn't know - you don't hear much about that part of Louisiana's history.

And LOL on the ladies. Yep, we never saw them until we stopped our forward motion. Then they were there, peeking out of windows or flat coming out to the front porch. Who knows what they thought our intentions were? Oh - maybe we do know! LOL

Brought over three of my favorite photos - got a new bunch posted but these are special. Really capture different aspects of your wonderful area.

Photobucket


Photobucket


Photobucket
That roseate spoonbill is gorgeous!

I love that shot of the canal. I could just drift for days.... If I had enough provisions in the cooler! LOL

Hiya, Doc! Hasn't this trip through bayou country been fun? A bit poignant, though. I've been wondering if these may be some of the last good shots of the area, what with that oil well disaster headed to shore.

Locals here are already getting into a panic about their oyster supplies. We do have local oysters but the majority of what is served in local restaurants are Gulf oysters. Local supply can't keep up with demand and I don't really think that there are that many oystermen in the business here anymore.

From the way things are sounding, if that oil hits the Loop Current and comes up the Eastern Seaboard, even the local oysters will be kaput. I just hope the worst case scenarios don't happen but we're scared and rightly so.
Another day of praying they can stop the oil from flowing into the GOM....
Eyewitness to the rig Blowout, La. Sport Fisherman who were just off the rig April 20th.

It was pretty cool to see them literally SAIL! When we drove at night the jellyfish would glow as they passed under the boat by the thousands. The tuna bites were starting to slow down so we drove right up to the rig to try to catch bait. No bait, but we found more tuna under the floating rig. Around 10pm the entire center of the rig started rushing water downwards over all the pipes... I've never seen such an event take place. I looked at my friend who previously worked offshore, and he said that's BOP something another and the rig took a 'kick!' I thought the rig was sinking and that was their way of bilging... But nope! Methane gas began BLOWING out of the West side of it and the noise of the thrust was louder than anything I've ever herd (except for a sonic boom I herd once, and what I'm about to tell you next) My eyes began to burn and that friend I was telling you about earlier began to SCREAM, "GO, GO, GO, GO, GOOOOO!" I positioned my compass North and put the gears in WOT! At approximately 100 yds from the rig it Exploded! Puts a new meaning to explosion. We hit the deck and continued North @ WOT, Blind because the moon was at quarter crescent and I had no radar.
Good day folks, Sun May 2nd...

Yikes, some terrible widespread flooding in TN from prodigious rainfall - TWC reported one river gauge rose from 3 ft level to over 35 ft in 14 hrs! ... severe / tornadic tstms over E MS / W AL and more hvy rain lift into TN / KY...
Weatherwise locally, stuck in the same pattern of overcast low level stratus - no sun past 3 days here - strong SLY winds continue ripping, very high dewpoints in mid-up 70's yielding high humidity / muggies... and little measureable rain... Had a few drops here / there, and see lil better focusing for shwrs to the east, trailing from hvy convective activity over MS / AL... Most recently, had enough to wet street... Cold front slowly limping this way, expected to temporarily stall over area into Monday, so might offer a chance for shwrs / tstms redevelopment here... Of interest, noting a tropical moisture pool / minor vorticity over BOC, perhaps a northernmost spin-off from the Cen Am convection / E Pac trof picked up in SWLY flow by the large CONUS trof, lifting up towards N Gulf coast that could enhance storm activity later as CONUS system stalls... Otherwise, the capping inversion has ruled my wx / kept the muggies in place... LOL, so far today our temp has ranged: 77 low to 78 high... (77-81 Sat, and turned on my AC for 1st time this year yesterday!)... winds a tad lower, w peak gust to 29.8 mph...

*****

G'day hunu!
LOL, ya know, everyone's grown up watching the westerns with territorial wars between Cowboys / Indians on horses... but nothing like seeing boatloads of 'em tearing thru the bayous / canals and trenasses recklessly, yelping war whoops while laughing / carrying on, as I did on occasion a couple decades ago in Point Aux Chenes... I dare say, some hvy alcoholic content involved... Only thing missing was the feathered headdress... ;) They let ya know who's territory it was, beyond the handwritten signs posted in the marsh, proclaiming "Indian Lands"...

Oh, awesome pics!
Ya mighta caught a few sac-a-lait, bream or bass by those cypress knees along the waterway... And really like the roseate spoonbill too! So funny, as I take all this for granted having grown up / lived here all my life... ;)

Hiya Bug,
No doubt, you would enjoy the scenery more than OtherYou did, so similar to coastal SC wetlands / swamps that ya savored with your Dad...
And let's hope the spill doesn't reach this far NWD, as river / waterway drainage flow should help keep this area flushed... but no one knows, esp as goes on and we approach tropical season... Early to speculate about an impact much later / farther from Gulf Stream transport that way.

Hello AJC'sMom,
Looks like daily prayer rituals on tap for foreseeable future...

Hey Pat,
Wow! Bet those tuna fishers were shocked... and not surprised some were there at the time, as productive the fishing is around the rigs... Jeeez, a close call for 'em!
127. DocNDswamp 2:38 PM CDT on May 02, 2010...
Praying they can get this thing capped off before the hurricanes start hitting the GOM...My 6 year old wanted to see videos of Katrina tonight...I really thought it would scare him, but, he says it didn't...guess it's time to bring him to our slab, he's the reason I left you know...
Anyway, I put my lot in Pass Christian up for sale a while back...looks like I'll be keeping it a bit longer...who knows????
Hi Doc,
May Day, May Day... LOL. Always good when sense of humor remains intact in situations such as these where control of the outcome is not in our hands.

I was happy to read the NYTimes link at 122. Engineers brainstorming. Seems they have not given up completely on the BOP device. And those boxy hood things could work. A glimmer of hope for a faster shutoff.

Hi ajcamsmom,
Hold on tight to your dreams.
:)


130. hunu
Doc, left you a long comment with some great links over at my shoreacres page, about photography, Quinta Scott, the Mississippi etc. You'll see ;-)
131. code1
G'day, g'nite m'swamp friend. You are, and have long been an anchor in my life. Thinking of you, and your area tonight. Check yer mail.
Monday May 3rd,

Finally got out of the LL stratus fog gloom as sun has been peeking thru leftover high cloudiness... and getting warmer, already have reached 87F (warmest yet this year!) and some stations to west are nearing 90 today... More of same this week ahead as summer temps dig in... One more short wave coming across from NM over TX that might enhance rain chances for those E of here into tomorrow, but boundary passed here yesterday eve for most part - focusing shwrs / tstms from S Lafourche N/NEWD toward NOLA, etc... and continuing EWD today, so limited chances here...

Fortunately the strong winds dropped off almost abruptly late aftn / last night... and remain a good bit lighter today, so improving conditions for working on containment, other spill efforts...

Did get a minimal amt rainfall late aftn / eve Sunday from foggy drizzle, or "frizzle" lol... tallied .09" amt at home... Meanwhile HUML1 station showing zero, so getting suspicious of their rain gauge (which usually even records minor amts from overnight fog)... Was interesting watching 36 hr vis / IR / WV imagery showing chunk of the Cen Am disturbance get forced NWD between flow of ridge to east / trof to west, that helped fire up activity on tail end of CONUS frontal trof over extreme E SE LA / S MS late aftn / last night... For those with memory of GFS runs of 10-12 days ago, this barely perceptable event was the one that had been shown as an organized tropical low immediately offshore near Tehuantepec slide into S MX and lift NWD into Gulf toward N Cen coast with frontal trof... LOL, didn't happen exactly that way, but darn close... The northern portion of Cen Am monsoon has taken a beating from shear lately, but will rebound - Panama has hardly noticed any difference as strong convection / hvy rains continue reforming...

*****

Hiyas AJC'sMom, Barefoot, hunu and Code!

Yes, hoping that dome cap they're working on is successful... Scary to consider the continuous volume spewing out from such great depth...

Trying hard to maintain some humor BF!
...although the idea of tossing away the Crisco as our LA shrimp will soon be available "pre-oiled" doesn't come over well for many... :(

Hey hunu-OtherShoreBug, lol...
Thanks for the info and links on Quinta's work and blog! As mentioned elsewhere, a fantastic / funtastic job you did with photo essay of your visit to S Cen / SE LA... And... LOL, still getting a kick how you pulled off the hunu blog and maintained your's too... Had to watch how I responded to comments from the "both" of you as well, lol... as will also admit to others of having some prior knowledge before and during your visit here... and was chuckling all along over the past week!

Hey Code,
Hope da Monday is going better, gal...
Sleep deprivation not nice over period of time... I caught up a little last night!

Later...
One more repost from Shore's blog will add here, as I have reached another frustrating, miserable phase in the rapid decline of film photography, intentional by corporate design...

The approaching death knell of using film with relative ease hit home about a week or so ago when learned rather rudely that Wal Mart has eliminated ALL film processing, slapping the face of long-time customers who were left with little choice after such chain stores kill off local enterprise... Oh, sure you can drop it off, they'll send it off somewhere and one will wait a week, 10 days, whatever for it to return... I lost the option of using beautiful slide film (positive transparencies) over past 1.5 years, as no one that I know of processes it in Louisiana anymore, and numbers dwindling across the USA as the pro service I used in Virginia shut down - very expensive to send out now when ya can find one (Katrina contributed too as NOLA photo stores dropped lotta film processing when they rebuilt - Thanks a lot, Lakeside Photo!)... I have several rolls of Velvia, a majority of everything I've photographed since about later 2005, sitting on my shelf awaiting processing that may never see light of day, never see what I captured... And now losing simple print (negative) film too quickly... I "think" my local Walgreens still processes it (and one remaining local photo sevice that I never liked), so will be checking... BTW, prior to all this digital-mania killing it's predecessor, I used professional film services, not drug stores / W Mart until was only option left...

So yeah... Aaaarrrrrghhhh... some underlying anxiety / anger / frustration over the "newer technology advancements" for some of us, as the corporate business model maximizes profit from "latest, greatest", with least amount of employee effort / expenditure... Soon enough, my four remaining 35 mm cameras will join my medium format Mamiya on the shelves, still fully capable of capturing fine images, but forced into "early" retirement as support is dropped... :(

So it goes...
Photobucket

Love the photo of the purple Iris.
Doc,

Your post re: the film processing quandry sent me off on an interesting search - responded over in my blog. I think I understand why both companies choose their product names (rich, velvety color and smooth texture, I assume) but I wish Velvia didn't remind me quite so much of Velveeta! LOL
Early Summer, Tuesday May 4th greetings, lol!

Jeeeez, once somebody pulled the stratus blanket off yesterday... the dang Summer temps were hiding behind it! Like most of LA where 90's were common - a 94F at Lake Charles on Monday - the KHUM airport hit 90, while HUML1 was 89... and my home thermo hit 91.6... A bit more of same today as HUML1 has joined the club with 90F high today, while mine soared to 95 with it's warm bias.. Oh well, with lower dewpoints / RH, at least it's a dry heat... ;)

Rather in freaked out mode today as woke to find my APC battery backup / surge protector had failed and the alarm was in constant squeal mode... and had a dead computer that had been abruptly shut down in overnight hrs while in sleep mode - never good to do such, esp with a now 7 yr old computer and hard drive that's within 5 gb of being full... Sheeeshhhhhh!

Bought another APC unit, hooked everything up... and after 4-5 trys, my old eMac woke up, loading all okay... fingers remain crossed, and prolly won't be on long here today before let it rest some more... Seeing an occasional horizontal blip across the old CRT screen that's got me nervous as heck...

If I disappear for more than 2-3 days, well... that'll be me standing on the street corner shaking a can, collecting $$$ for a new computer... :( ...!
(edit) LOL, okay, I've disappeared longer than that at times... just hope won't be for such a failure.

***

Hiya Pros,
Thanks for the compliment and more so for the beautiful rose, Proserpina! It has brightened my day considerably... Hope your day is going well!

Hello Shore,
Ahhh, yes a lot of photographers got a laugh back in '89-90 when Fuji released that lovely film with the Velvia name... and thought Velveeta more than the velvet connotation it was supposed to impart... A richly colored transparency film with extremely fine grain, chuckles on it's name notwithstanding, it was near universally adopted, became the industry standard and remains highly regarded... LOL, another very nice professional grade print film Fuji made was called Reala, with the idea of it producing very accurate colors under all kinds of lighting conditions (including fluorescent) to simulate - reality, lol... And it did that quite well... More LOL, just look at names of cars these days - Accura, etc...

That L Verret iris image is the only scanned Velvia 50 (iso speed) image I've posted on WU... I believe all the rest are scanned Fuji 200 Superia (lol, there we go again) print film, which was able to have processed relatively quickly / locally, then scanned & imported into Photoshop to digital file output... Still quite a lot of work, elapsed time before was ready, so fastest ever posted an image here was about 2 days later after was shot... "Current" images for most today mean as short as a few minutes or hrs ago, with the immediacy of digital cameras... Last month, even last year was current enough for me!

Yep, just read the film columns on photo.net or shutterbug, etc... plenty of frustrated old-timers whining over the demise of our medium to latest, greatest, obsolete-in-6-months digital wonders... Not to mention the MILLIONS of high quality film cameras still out there being relegated to dust collectors...
Guess they'll join our 33 rpm record collections... :(
Yeah... I know... sound like Andy Rooney!

Will catch up with yas later... maybe... elder computer willing!
Morning, Doc,

If you're reading this, things are still ok with your Machine, I guess. My own CRT committed suicide a couple of years ago. It was the smell of burning plastic that attracted me - I'd go with the squeal over that any time. No damage then to anything but the monitor - thank goodness.

Summer mode here, too, with ozone watches for the first time this year (that I can remember).
It's still dryish here with a light N wind but that'll change pretty quickly as the day heats up.

Interesting note about processing time. I was going to upload some larger images from the trip last night, and discovered they wouldn't appear in the WU galleries because they're over a week old. I suppose they have to set limits somehow, but it's beyond me how you're supposed to go on a trip, take photos, get home and process them all within a week! It seems like a bias toward folks who have the time to just "do photography" instead of having to fit it in with other things. But that may be unnecessarily harsh.

Anyhow, I'll find some uses for them. Right now, it's off to my day. Hope yours is a fine one!
Good morning / almost aftn Shore!

LOL, this early dry, getting hot wx is reminding me of that stuck ridge pattern we were under last June - at least it's still centered over Mexico so far... NOLA area and above had respectable amts rain from last system but Terrebonne was dry as shared the SW LA and S TX conditions - LOL, midway thru it, was taking my cue more from Lake Charles NWS forecast than NOLA's... Seeing little chance for rain in my forecast ahead either, Spring drought continues...

Ooooo, burnt plastic smell doesn't sound good!
Yeah, much as hate to admit it, my Mac prolly reaching it's end days without a serious, expensive overhaul as it's an older all-in-one unit, the last of the old CRT's... and too dangerous for me to try anything under the hood - the hard drive is close by some rather high voltage of that CRT! Of course, been thinking it's getting closer to death for over 2 years now... When it does go, will be like losing a loved one, as it is... Still occasionally seeing the interference lines pop up, but... I'll have to do something before much longer as have put off lot of photo scanning / digitizing work left to do over these aging comp concerns, which was PRIMARY reason I got a computer in 1st place in 2003... Then became aware of everything else to spend my time on with one... like the info-net, weather, blogs... ;)

Yes, the WU gallery is designed for digital immediacy with images of the day much like current news, otherwise gets dumped into the archive without being shown in any of the galleries for public view, other than one's own Wunderphotos (or within the blogs via WU or other image hosting sites)... Was another frustration for me, besides my initial worry over copyright issues, just left me feeling why bother posting any here since all of mine are "past expiration date"? Plus, despite my photography hobby, didn't join here for the photo club at the outset, but for tropical weather interests... so took me a while to warm up to the idea of posting some... LOL, was a time-consuming, mad rush to get a few posted when I did! Not really my style... My pace is slightly faster than geological time, even by swiftly changing Louisiana standards... ;)

Hey, your photos look great!
Make no mistake on my perspective, digital has been a great boon to all of us... LOL, I could write an even more lengthy argument in favor of digital imagery over film (and did, but edited out) - WU's image gallery says it all, there might be 20 scanned film images out of the million plus of those high quality, sharp images from both the simplest digital point & shoots to DSLR's! I been considering something like a used Canon 20D / lenses to begin replacing my 80's vintage Olympus OM film cams, as last few generations aren't really obsolete as were in early 2000's...

Pleasant day to ya!
Quoting DocNDswamp:
Good morning / almost aftn Shore!

LOL, this early dry, getting hot wx is reminding me of that stuck ridge pattern we were under last June - at least it's still centered over Mexico so far... NOLA area and above had respectable amts rain from last system but Terrebonne was dry as shared the SW LA and S TX conditions - LOL, midway thru it, was taking my cue more from Lake Charles NWS forecast than NOLA's... Seeing little chance for rain in my forecast ahead either, Spring drought continues...

Ooooo, burnt plastic smell doesn't sound good!
Yeah, much as hate to admit it, my Mac prolly reaching it's end days without a serious, expensive overhaul as it's an older all-in-one unit, the last of the old CRT's... and too dangerous for me to try anything under the hood - the hard drive is close by some rather high voltage of that CRT! Of course, been thinking it's getting closer to death for over 2 years now... When it does go, will be like losing a loved one, as it is... Still occasionally seeing the interference lines pop up, but... I'll have to do something before much longer as have put off lot of photo scanning / digitizing work left to do over these aging comp concerns, which was PRIMARY reason I got a computer in 1st place in 2003... Then became aware of everything else to spend my time on with one... like the info-net, weather, blogs... ;)

Yes, the WU gallery is designed for digital immediacy with images of the day much like current news, otherwise gets dumped into the archive without being shown in any of the galleries for public view, other than one's own Wunderphotos (or within the blogs via WU or other image hosting sites)... Was another frustration for me, besides my initial worry over copyright issues, just left me feeling why bother posting any here since all of mine are "past expiration date"? Plus, despite my photography hobby, didn't join here for the photo club at the outset, but for tropical weather interests... so took me a while to warm up to the idea of posting some... LOL, was a time-consuming, mad rush to get a few posted when I did! Not really my style... My pace is slightly faster than geological time, even by swiftly changing Louisiana standards... ;)

Hey, your photos look great!
Make no mistake on my perspective, digital has been a great boon to all of us... LOL, I could write an even more lengthy argument in favor of digital imagery over film (and did, but edited out) - WU's image gallery says it all, there might be 20 scanned film images out of the million plus of those high quality, sharp images from both the simplest digital point & shoots to DSLR's! I been considering something like a used Canon 20D / lenses to begin replacing my 80's vintage Olympus OM film cams, as last few generations aren't really obsolete as were in early 2000's...

Pleasant day to ya!


Without a doubt,,I love film more.

The best shoot I ever had was Hale-Bopp Comet shot from Manchac over I-55 in April 97.

I chilled down some Kodak Royal Gold 1000 ASA and got prints, that well..made me over 5K that Summer.

I miss film.


Dearly.
Hiya Pat!

Ahhh, another film lover, right on!
I remember your fine pic of Hale-Bopp... Man, I got some nice ones as well shot from the Terrebonne swamps and on the cypress-lined lakes of Verret and Flat Lake, Morgan City that gave a nice foreground with comet glowing in star-filled background sky... mostly used Fuji 800G print film, some with slide film...

Shame is, the quality of film had continued to improve with state-of-the-art excellence but they're pulling the option away from us with eliminating processing... Lakeside Photo - which I also used along with CapitolColor in VA - pissed me off when they dropped E6 slides after Katrina, now don't know if even offer print film processing... Options really narrowing in smaller markets like Houma...
LOL, just remembered the difficulties involved back then in Spring '97... working outta my boat as usual, but tripod set on waterbottom... very high river flood stage, lotta deeper water in the "shallows" making a challenge to set up my tripod even with custom-made extensions (near 11 ft overall, okay in 6-7 ft depth)... One spot on Flat Lake so silted in, 1st attempt the tripod sank outta sight, almost lost grip on it!

Wind / waves screwing up the long exposures required... as always, unwanted distraction of lights... so many nights filled with clouds that Spring... and the millions of hungry mosquitoes chomping eagerly... LOL, worth every bit of the misery suffered!
Quoting DocNDswamp:
Hiya Pat!

Ahhh, another film lover, right on!
I remember your fine pic of Hale-Bopp... Man, I got some nice ones as well shot from the Terrebonne swamps and on the cypress-lined lakes of Verret and Flat Lake, Morgan City that gave a nice foreground with comet glowing in star-filled background sky... mostly used Fuji 800G print film, some with slide film...

Shame is, the quality of film had continued to improve with state-of-the-art excellence but they're pulling the option away from us with eliminating processing... Lakeside Photo - which I also used along with CapitolColor in VA - pissed me off when they dropped E6 slides after Katrina, now don't know if even offer print film processing... Options really narrowing in smaller markets like Houma...


Yes indeed Doc..I use "Phototech" in Metairie on Veterans Blvd,but I dont know if he still in Business.
Been so Long since I caved to digital.

I feel Like a schmuck..sometimes.

I googled,"Patrap,Hale-Bopp" and found a print.



That's the one... thanks Pat!
I like it, can see the blue gas jet trail on topside well in yours...

Here's one from Flat Lake mentioned post #141 where almost lost my tripod to the 4 ft of silty mud bottom, lol...



Comet Hale Bopp, Flat Lake / mouth Bayou Grosbeck above Morgan City, May 3 1997...

Ran the exposure about 15-20 sec too long, got bit too much blur w comet and stars and it's grainy... but a keeper... Probably near 10 PM just before it set... Only few of mine is that blue gas jet faintly visible, not this one... I didn't capture any when was best in late March, seemed cloudy about every night... Most of mine were late April into early May, getting lower and fading by then with each passing day... Oh yeah, moon light issues at times...
;)

(edit) May try rescanning that one sometime on my Hi Res scanner and apply grain remover tool, this was done on a cheaper Epson flatbed model... Dug the file out a while ago, made a jpeg from it...

Later!
Ooooh,..I like dat un big time Doc.

We need to do a Gallery Show..

I'll chunk in 10, 8x10 and 5, 20 x 30,matted.

WUnderland Astro Photography,Se. La style.
circa 97 AD.

We'll make millions.

..or nuff to buy some Eyrster's, a Keg and some CrawDads.

Charity sounds good though.




April 7th was perfect Doc.

30sec Royal Gold 1000 CANON AE-1,on scope tripod

Cool Front came thru night before, Moonless..but lotsa skeeters.

I was in a 84 Corolla Wagon on the Old Hammond Hwy,next to 51.
Or the "old Road" as folks used to say,..near Rudduck, 2 different locations bout a mile apart.








Hey Pat,
Sorry had to run earlier, some dang outdoor work distracting from our fun with Hale BoppNDswamp memories...

Thanks for sharing the views!
Oh man yeah, esp love that last one - awesome deep reflection in the water! Again, can see the elusive trailing blue jet streak well in all of 'em... Yes, that Apr 7th date looked great, my luck was prolly working late that day as do remember seeing it clearly during the peak a couple times driving home...

That Canon AE-1 was a classic cam, bet ya ran miles of film thru it! And the Royal Gold 1000 was a fine fast film... 30 secs sounds about right, most of mine were in 30-50 sec range with 800 iso @ F2.8, shot majority with my fav WA zoom, 24-40 mm...

LOL, I may go dig thru some more images... got another from next eve right after sunset w some afterglow glowing that's more landscape than comet @ 24 mm... I'd need to work on / downsize it... Like most of mine, lot of 'em never scanned yet, lol...
146. code1
I gotta AE-1 Program (second generation wasn't it?) with a few lenses packed away somewhere. Used Kodak Royal Gold film as well. Think there are more than a few rolls of 36 exp. in the packing as well. Are they still good after 15-20 years? Would love to see what's on them. Mostly my baby girl and family, with a lotta KY mountains, horses, and gulf coast beach pics in the mix I'm sure. Never did learn how to use the darn thing well. I was busy raising a child and showing horses you know. :-)
Still optimistic here Doc. We will have more beauty to keep either via film, or the dreaded digital as you "real" photogs call the medium that I find easier. Not any better at it, but it is easier for me. I am a slug don' cha know. haha
Take care! God Bless our coasts!
Doc & Pat ~ What great images of Hale-Bopp, both of you. I must say my favorite is the swamp image - the juxtaposition of the earthy trees, the water and the heavenly spectacle is just wonderful.

I hadn't thought of Hale-Bopp in forever. Houston's contribution to all that excitement, of course, was Chuck Shramek. Here's a brief reminder from Absolute Astronomy:

In November 1996 amateur astronomer Chuck Shramek of Houston, Texas took a CCD image of the comet, which showed a fuzzy, slightly elongated object nearby. When his computer sky-viewing program did not identify the star, Shramek called the Art Bell radio program to announce that he had discovered a "Saturn-like object" following Hale-Bopp. UFO enthusiasts, such as remote viewing proponent Courtney Brown, soon concluded that there was an alien spacecraft following the comet. Several astronomers, including Alan Hale, claimed the object was simply an 8.5-magnitude star, SAO141894, which did not appear on Shramek's computer program because the user preferences were set incorrectly.

I don't know. Alien spacecraft might have been nice, but your images have stood the test of time far better than Shramek's stories! LOL

Good Thursday all!

And in local wx news... there is none, lol... Sunny, warm, dry... Rain chances ahead? Slim to none... gonna follow the old forecast maxim - "When in drought, leave it out!"...
Another very dry Spring here... yawn... Guess should be preparing for inevitable flood to follow...

Well the "fingers-crossed-let's-hope-it-works" container box fabricated past few day is at the spill site and... "fingers-crossed-let's-hope-it-works"!

And OMG what's happened now? Can't get Google to load with a search box from my Camino browser today (but does with Safari)... sheeeshhhh... and after was ready to compliment them on getting most YouTubes to work again compatibly with my older system... at last check...! (edit) Nope... they've screwed with it again... can hear some of 'em, clicking wildly to find the imaginary button somewhere on the lower left, but can't see 'em!

*****

Hey Code,
Missed ya as went playing with photo files last night... Yes, I remember ya got an AE-1... While processing services still available ya might want to try developing those exposed rolls, at least one or two, I bet they're viable... Not to mention the thrill you'd get seeing those memories come alive! If the film is unexposed they may still be good as well - I've used expired film in the past, although granted, 30 yo stuff gets more questionable and quality got lot better beyond mid 80's... I got assortment of older films refrigerated, including one of the most finely detailed print films Kodak made called Ektar from that period, came as slow as 25 iso to 125 iso, and was great enlarged!

LOL, now ya know I'm not anti-digital - I love the advantages it offers! Heck, I knew this playing nice attitude with both available options wasn't gonna last long with bottom-line corporate mentality... Those that didn't successfully adopt failed - like Minolta, one of the pioneers in photography, now out of business (but partly lives on via Sony)... LOL, my High Resolution scanner is a Minolta Dimage Elite 5400 type 1, one of the last great pieces of equipment they made before merging with Konica... then went under, failing to compete with Nikon, Canon, etc in digitalia...
Just don't like the FORCED changes in my life... a sign of aging... ;)

Hiya Shore,
Thanks a bunch! In my case it was just working with the lenses / equip I had, and lacking a good quality, fast tele lens to capture a good close-up, I mostly concentrated on incorporating the comet in my favorite subject - cypress swamp landscapes... I've got another mentioned above that's probably my favorite, shot with wide angle where the comet merely compliments the scene... LOL, although hard to miss it... I may post it later if can crop / resize it well enough from the monstrous 492 mb original scanned file (and redo the color space adjustments to sRGB for 'net viewing)... Takes about 2 minutes just to open the dang thing in PS, lol...

Yes, remember the loonies running amok during the comet's passage, i.e. the sad cult suicides with the UFO connection, etc...
Seems we ought to be about due another comet surprise to be found... LOL, when found, hope it's not due to arrive in Dec 2012!

Okay, enough of my blog blabbering...
Have a good 'un, all!
Okay, couldn't resist... was able to redo the color-correction to sRGB, crop, and downsize it to a manageable jpeg file, still at 4.3 mb when sent to Image Shack, lol... Definitely one of my favorite landscapes from the visit by Comet Hale-Bopp...


Comet Hale-Bopp graces the sky above cypress trees on Flat Lake's N side, May 4 1997...

Notes: Location accessed by boat... Olympus OMG, Fuji 800G 35mm print film, Tokina 24-40 at 24-26 mm, aperture F2.8, exp around 20 secs on bulb setting, cable release, tripod set in 5' water depth... Captured within an hour after sunset, long exposure picked up the lingering afterglow - was lot darker than apparent here... Kept waiting for long strand of spanish moss to quit swinging so much in a light breeze, lol... Hale-Bopp's tail seemed to merge with the cirrus patches...

Enjoy!
More late aftn / eve work calls...
Oh, my. That is just splendid, Doc. It's one of those photos you can just look at and look at. Then, when you get all done, you can look at it some more ;-)

Thanks for going to all the work to get it here!
Good Friday to ya Shore,

Thanks a lot m'friend, thought you'd like that one!
Glad to share it here... Very pleased everything aligned to make the image capture possible, as swamp photography presents several challenges...

LOL, crossed paths with well-known Louisiana nature photographer CC Lockwood a few years ago on location in Bay Wallace - he was working on his book "Marsh Mission" and we both were shooting irises late in the season - and first words he spoke when we pulled alongside was "My, that sure is a long tripod set-up ya got!!!" ... I smiled knowing he immediately recognized the advantage and opportunities afforded...

Oh... a numerical correction on my sanding joke from yesterday - make that 220 grit, not 240... Didn't mention 400-600 or higher, since we're talking varnish... not French polishing with shellac to a mirror finish, LOL!

Pass a good day!

Box to contain oil spill in Gulf has been placed over leak, BP reports



By The Associated Press
May 07, 2010, 5:08PM

A spokesman for BP PLC says a 100-ton concrete-and-steel box has been placed over a massive oil leak at the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico and is settling down into the mud.

BP spokesman Bill Salvin said Friday it may take as many as 12 hours for the containment box to settle in place but everything appears to be going as planned.

If the box settles properly, crews will then turn their attention to hooking up a pipe to pump the oil out. Salvin cautions though that there are still many challenges ahead as BP makes this first-of-its-kind attempt.

Officials have said it may take two days for crews to hook the device up to a tanker on the surface and begin to siphon off the spewing oil.
Doc -
I agree w/ Shore - that image is gorgeous! I love Irises, they are such majestic flowers!
wow, thanks to all for the Hale-Bopp pics, they are awesome!
A warm hello to you Doc and other friends. That oil spill is terrible. It's The Year Of The Tiger and I'm sure we haven't heard the loudest roars yet... Don't wanna sound negative, but I guess I do... YIKES :(
A very hot day here in Lake Worth, hubby took me for Mother's Day brunch at the Lantana Dune Deck Cafe because my only child is terribly far away in the Reindeerland. Buaaaaaah! Oooops - mom always said that if you don't have anything nice to say, don't say anything at all. So I'll shut my piehole and wish you Bonne Nuit :)
Morning, Doc,

Well, I trust you had a fine High Holy Day with your own Mama, and are ready for whatever this week brings.

I wasn't surprised to see Lafourche and Terrebonne declare states of emergency yesterday. The wind isn't going to be your friend. While I understand the angst about the beaches, the truth of the matter is that this stuff has to go somewhere, and it seems to me it would be easier to clean it off a beach than deal with the estuaries and marshes. But, it looks like everyone's going to have their part of the problem to deal with.

Sandbagging the breaks in your own beaches seems a reasonable response. I hope the parishes get the support they need for some of these projects, and get it quickly. I'm wondering how this will affect operations at the offshore oil port south of Grand Isle. I suppose they can function normally with sheen, but at what point does it become too hazardous for work to be done?

It was more than a little distressing to read at NOLA.com that the oyster beds around Montegut were closed, and that most of the boats moving now are on remediation missions. Every time I see mention of a place I just visited, it just kills me.

Well. Enough of that.

I just laughed and laughed at your 220/240 comment. One of my favorite memories is of the new varnisher who showed up on the docks a few years ago. My gosh, he was good. His final coats were the best - shinier than anyone's. One day, he snagged a job away from me. The customer said that yes, he was a lot more expensive, but his work was so beautiful he just had to hire him.

Well, I kept an eye on him - R&D, don't you know? (Or small scale corporate espionage. Whatever.) When he got to the final coat I saw why it was so shiny. He was wet sanding with 600 grit. I just grinned and went home.

Sure enough, three months later the customer was on the phone. Seems that vanish was peeling right off. "It's just so strange," he said. "All that work and it just didn't hold up." Uh-huh... ;-) I still laugh about that.

Loved exploring Lockwood's work. I had a new photographer show up over at Wordpress this weekend who does beautiful work, too. Her name's Judy Lovell, and she's Florida based.

Here's something to give you a smile for the day! Let's send this guy over to talk to the BP execs...

You pass a good day, too! Maybe you ought to go out into the swamps and find Marie and see what she might have in her bag of tricks for us. ;-)

ADD: You may know this site, but I've just found it through Quinta Scott's site. Very informative and wide ranging. LACOASTPOST
Video: Ride along with Air Force crew spraying chemicals on Gulf oil spill
By The Times-Picayune
May 10, 2010, 7:03PM
Ride along with the crew of an Air Force C-130 Hercules aircraft as they spray oil-dispersing chemicals in the Gulf of Mexico to combat the oil spill after the April 22 explosion of the Deepwater Horizon rig.

Air force sprays oil dispersant










Hello Tue May 11,

Prayers and best wishes to victims of latest deadly tornadic outbreak disaster in OK yesterday... Plenty advance warning of this event given days ahead no doubt saved lives, courtesy of SPC / NWS and others including fellow blogger Beell and the crew covering severe wx episodes...

Local wx can be summed in saying warm, breezy and dry continues - now into our 12th week below norm rainfall, with most of LA in moderate drought conditions and steadily worsening... Had pleasant Sun-Mon as cooler, low humidity air filtered in - had a 58F low yesterday - but quickly in the past as muggies have returned on SLY winds... Hopefully looking at some rain chances by early next week as mid-upper ridge over us now shifts EWD / weakens, front drapes closer...

With the Gulf oil spewing disaster, after initial containment box failed with icing issues, the second version constructed, "top hat", is on it's way to the site for another attempt... Boom, boom and more boom being deployed... Additional sand piles being spread over barrier islands as we watched some oil make it's way WWD scraping Lafourche / Terrebonne where sections of fishery have been closed - but remain largely open in adjacent bays / inland waterways so far... Day to day with all this... Stronger SLY winds not helping, although some good coming from bad, as the past floods over TN - OH valleys have another respectable surge coming down MS River (and Atchafalaya) for next 10 days and more to keep a strong outflow going... Good thing considering our local drought issue...

More of latest info can be found on -
NOLA.com...
and at Emergency Louisiana.gov site...

****

Hey Pat, thanks for the prior info and the "flight"... low level flying indeed! Guess we'll worry about chemical contaminants issues later... :(

Hi Foxx,
Thanks a lot, appreciate your compliment!

Hello Finn,
Ahhhh, that's not true, you always have nice words to say and your hello was warmly received here! Glad you enjoyed a fine Mother's Day brunch... even if felt more like July 4th!

Hiya Shore,
Yep, a lot easier to clean sand, too bad our barrier islands aren't as continuous as used to be...

Most of fishery closures near-inland are precautionary right now... However, eastern lower Terrebonne bordering Lafourche might run a bigger risk with poorer freshwater outflow than our western portions refreshed by Atchafalaya - quite the salty Gulf influx in the east...

LOL, on that shiny varnisher... sounds like he sanded so fine, didn't allow enough "tooth" for it to adhere to, so delaminating result not surprising...

Hey thanks for those links... I'm familiar with Len Bahr... and just LOVE the glare / stare from that pelican, LOL!

Gotta run, hope all having a better day!
Hiya, Doc,

Wendy Billiot posted today about a shrimper who's come up with a way to use his idled shrimp boat to skim oil. You can see the post here in case you didn't see him on tv yesterday.

I'm in no position to judge the worth of the idea, but I'm sure going to get it around as best I can to people who can give it a look. I figured you'd be interested, and might have someone to pass it on to.

I posted in the blog about the meeting tonight at the LaRose Civic Center, too. There ought to be a good number of people there who'd be interested.
Hiya Shore,
Yes, I saw Mr Pellegrin's FEMA tarp-net mock-up featured on local HTV either Mon or Tue night... I should probably reserve comment too, but I certainly pondered serious issues of it's effectiveness, not the least being the tremendous volume water getting forced thru it at even the slowest of speeds... Oh well, he's trying...

Thanks for the other link... meetings abound daily... And you might have noticed while visiting, when ya got to Hwy 90 / 311 intersection that BP's office / "Learning Center" facility is located there, sprawling across several acres of formerly prime farm lands... Rather busy there lately!

Hope all is going well,
A great day to ya!

*****

Came across a freshwater fish kill yesterday - lot of dead 10-20 lbs size carp bloating on the sfc... Nope, not related to oil spill at all, but a combination of drought-induced extreme low water level and initial operation stage of the (upper) Bayou Terrebonne dredging project... The dead fish were in a small, relatively deeper pool below one the 3 weirs set for removal by project plans, which is a favorite fishing spot for a few locals... as workers' dredge boat positioned just below the pool piled up a swath of mud while testing their apparatus, blocking the already weak / shallow stream flow, contributing to rapid oxygen depletion... Expect to see remaining small population of gamefish - largemouth bass, catfish, sac-a-lait and numerous bream species - die next as have no way to escape to the south...

Another casualty from this project, much like the bankside trees that once graced Bayou Terrebonne, provided wildlife / bird habitat and aesthetic beauty - live oaks, water oaks, pecans, maples, golden rain trees, hackberrys, willows, etc - that were callously destroyed in a sweeping clear-cutting exercise all along the eastern bank in late November at the onset of this project... of which the public was NEVER informed to the extent of project impact until after the fact... The TPCG and Courier didn't bother to announce anything in clear terms about the project until Jan 2nd, over 5 weeks after horrified residents were puzzled why "our" trees were being destroyed along the eastern bank beside LA 24 north (over the Thanksgiving Holiday, no less, when officials could not be contacted)... The "why" was only hinted at later - not for mere equipment access as most of us (who knew anything) were told, but the engineers plan to enlarge the bayou's width / capacity by excavating the east bank along this middle portion... and the trees were in the way!

(major edit)

Okay... I deleted the rest of this story which occupied another 5 lengthy paragraphs trying to explain the complete details of the project and my concerns... wasting time / space here...

Gotta run, duties, etc calls...
BBL sometime...
Y'all take care...
Hiya, Doc,

A late lunch and a quick peek. I must say, even without the added insult of an offshore oil gusher, the issues of water, dredging, restoration and drilling in your area are just mind-boggling.

One reason has to be the complexity of the natural environment. It seems reasonable to me that there can't be a one-answer-fits-all approach. I'm not sure I've ever seen so much mixed up together: fresh and salt, bayou and swamp, marsh and river and timber.

Then, you add in the canals for oil exploration and navigation, toss in a dollop of politics and top it off with a sprinkling of developers and....

Well, it's just far more complicated than I ever realized. I suppose that's part of what makes things like Mr. Pellegrin's skimmer and some bales of hay so appealing. The urge to do something - anything - is just so strong, even when it's nearly impossible to know what to do. The problem comes when a simple answer turns out to be a dead wrong answer.

Anyway - appreciated your add. Now, off to my own chores on a windy, windy day with rising humidity. That rain may get here yet!





LinkPlan to cap Gulf of Mexico oil leak with dome delayed
Hey Shore,

Well, hope ya get the rain, looks a decent chance for both of us next few days... I measured inch and a half wide cracks over foot deep in the ground on our property this aftn! Easily, more than moderate drought conditions here...

LOL, takes a good bit of local hydrological knowledge to begin to understand just how complex this ecosystem is...

Well I checked on dredging project progress, it's actually fairly interesting how they are approaching this as it's admittedly a difficult project to conduct, esp as they later reach more built up areas and a tighter constriction - both above this middle portion where they're starting and SWD below where flows thru Bayou Cane and Houma - with homes / businesses on both sides of our namesake bayou... Bayou Terrebonne flowing S intersects with the Intracoastal Waterway in Houma (which means drainage efficiency depends on ICW's water level - which is essentially a tributary of the Atchafalaya, along with tidal influx from Gulf)...

Anyway, they ran a lengthy string of piping months ago into a nearby field serving as dirt / mud / silt disposal site... and last 2 days have set up the feeder pipes that the mini suction-dredge boat will deposit thru... The actual dredging op is about to commence so we'll see just what happens... I cant begin to reveal details further without writing a damn book everytime I try! I'll simply say, I agree some dredging is warranted - a foot or two of silt removal could be beneficial... attempting more than that, i.e. extensive bank excavation, dredging deeper, etc, will lead to trouble... All officials involved - from the local Tree Board Advisor, parish govt councilmen, the Parish President, the project engineer, Army Corps Engineers supervisors / inspectors, and other agencies have clearly heard my opinion and complaints / concerns months ago... Suffice to say - watching 'em like a hawk with poison pen at the ready, along with handful of documentary photos of damning evidence of their willful and unnecessary habitat destruction... ;)

***

Hiya Unc Mush,
Thanks for the link! Some nice illustrations shown there... Got fingers crossed it works this time!

***

Something else has left me very upset this eve... a consequence of circumstances / my actions...

Well, y'all know that May is a month we see a lot of slithery activity in SE LA as da snakes get restless and move about quite a bit... Had a very unfortunate encounter at Mom's place this aftn - as pulled up into driveway, saw one sitting in front there... No biggie I figured, as have seen a few already, mostly black-masked or brown / blue racers or yellow-bellied watersnakes, kingsnakes and the occasional rat or corn snake... But this one looked a bit different and with hoe in hand to prod it back into the woods, approached him... He slithered almost into the weeds, his triangular-shaped head lifted a few inches off the ground as he moved - uh oh, I remember this familiar trait on both land and water - then he stopped and faced me... and opened his mouth, revealing a snow white interior and a set of sharp fangs! ... Several times... while his tail twitched against the brush like a rattler... Yep, sadly, this was a young cottonmouth of about 2.5 ft length and his defiance, along with concern for my Mom and her cat's safety with him getting so close to the house forced me into a decision that was very upsetting to both of us, with the snake getting the worst of it... As, for 1st time in many years, I killed the poor critter... and feel absolutely terrible about it, as it's been my policy to live and let live with my local snakes - they serve a valuable purpose esp w rodent control... G*ddammit why didn't he stay in the woods and not venture up right by the house! :(

Don't laugh... I'm certain I could more readily kill some humans with little remorse to no guilty conscience about it after... than the near-tearful suffering I felt in taking this snake's life, who's only crime was being in wrong place / wrong time... I prayed afterward for it to be reincarnated into a higher life form next go-round... but I'm left feeling my own Karma is snakebit now...

Over and out for now...
LinkFilms Documenting The Gulf Oil Spill
Up to 5,000 bottlenose dolphins may be calving in the path of the slick, said Moby Solangi, director of the Institute for Marine Mammal Studies in Gulfport.
Reflections - You Were Made for This
Clarissa Pinkola Estes, Ph.D, author of the best-seller Women Who Run with the Wolves

My friends, do not lose heart. We were made for these times. I have heard from so many recently who are deeply and properly bewildered. They are concerned about the state of affairs in our world now. Ours is a time of almost daily astonishment and often righteous rage over the latest degradations of what matters most to civilized, visionary people.

You are right in your assessments. The lustre and hubris some have aspired to while endorsing acts so heinous against children, elders, everyday people, the poor, the unguarded, the helpless, is breathtaking. Yet I urge you, ask you, gentle you, to please not spend your spirit dry by bewailing these difficult times. Especially do not lose hope. Most particularly because, the fact is that we were made for these times. Yes. For years, we have been learning, practicing, been in training for and just waiting to meet on this exact plain of engagement.

I grew up on the Great Lakes and recognize a seaworthy vessel when I see one. Regarding awakened souls, there have never been more able vessels in the waters than there are right now across the world. And they are fully provisioned and able to signal one another as never before in the history of humankind. Look out over the prow; there are millions of boats of righteous souls on the waters with you. Even though your veneers may shiver from every wave in this stormy roil, I assure you that the long timbers composing your prow and rudder come from a greater forest. That long-grained lumber is known to withstand storms, to hold together, to hold its own, and to advance, regardless.

In any dark time, there is a tendency to veer toward fainting over how much is wrong or unmended in the world. Do not focus on that. There is a tendency, too, to fall into being weakened by dwelling on what is outside your reach, by what cannot yet be. Do not focus there. That is spending the wind without raising the sails.
We are needed, that is all we can know. And though we meet resistance, we more so will meet great souls who will hail us, love us and guide us, and we will know them when they appear. Didn't you say you were a believer? Didn't you say you pledged to listen to a voice greater? Didn't you ask for grace? Don't you remember that to be in grace means to submit to the voice greater?

Ours is not the task of fixing the entire world all at once, but of stretching out to mend the part of the world that is within our reach. Any small, calm thing that one soul can do to help another soul, to assist some portion of this poor suffering world, will help immensely. It is not given to us to know which acts or by whom, will cause the critical mass to tip toward an enduring good.

What is needed for dramatic change is an accumulation of acts, adding, adding to, adding more, continuing. We know that it does not take everyone on Earth to bring justice and peace, but only a small, determined group who will not give up during the first, second, or hundredth gale.

One of the most calming and powerful actions you can do to intervene in a stormy world is to stand up and show your soul. Soul on deck shines like gold in dark times. The light of the soul throws sparks, can send up flares, builds signal fires, causes proper matters to catch fire. To display the lantern of soul in shadowy times like these-to be fierce and to show mercy toward others; both are acts of immense bravery and greatest necessity.
Struggling souls catch light from other souls who are fully lit and willing to show it. If you would help to calm the tumult, this is one of the strongest things you can do.

There will always be times when you feel discouraged. I too have felt despair many times in my life, but I do not keep a chair for it. I will not entertain it. It is not allowed to eat from my plate.
The reason is this: In my uttermost bones I know something, as do you. It is that there can be no despair when you remember why you came to Earth, who you serve, and who sent you here. The good words we say and the good deeds we do are not ours. They are the words and deeds of the One who brought us here. In that spirit, I hope you will write this on your wall: When a great ship is in harbor and moored, it is safe, there can be no doubt. But that is not what great ships are built for.
Hiyadoc,

I sure felt close to you today (re # 162, last two substantial paragraphs). Your group of words told a story that I could see and feel and hope that I would never have to tell in first person. Thought about it A LOT today. I think I might have been (may be) strong enough to take the same action that you were called to take. There really wasn't any other choice, as unpleasant as it is/was.

We have cottonmouths here too, although I haven't run across one that I know "aboot." We've also got lots of golf clubs (as in instruments, not people). I'll be heading "down the country" soon and will "carry" you with me.

My best snake story is about a black snake (that's the only way we call the non-bad ones). I suppose it might be more than "one" black snake, as I have "known" him for over thirty-years. He once got into the closet... "water closet" that is. Thankfully we parted peacefully.

May your next encounter be a good one. And, thank you for taking the action you did take. It was the right thing.
Hello my Leo/Snake/Bro,

My friend you did the right thing in killing that CottonMouth, they are no good that close to humans and pets... that snake would not have dropped a tear about killing your Mother's cat or biting you!

Someone said you had a barn full of snakes! ROFL... I am not really afraid of "non poison" snakes but I really do not want to be around a lot of them .... but nasty spiders are the worse! and I got bit by one of them a year ago.


What is that song "I don't like Spiders and Snakes" LOL

I think about you and your beautiful area often..and I am so enjoying that Book I got from Linda (Shore) for winning the "thingy" contest...About your beautiful wetlands.
. I hope they can get most of that oil cleaned up before it is a major impact..
I know it is already a major impact but I hope it is not going to get much worse.

We had a bunch of those really large carps go belly up and die in our canals and lakes when we had all that un natural cold in Jan & Feb.. and they could stink up the entire area with their dead bloated carcus floating on the water.

Hope you get to have some "down time" this weekend.



Saturday May 15 greetings,

Finally some rain today as advertised... had couple t-boomers start early 'round 6 AM, another wave lifted as horizontal band seabreeze-like mid-morn... Sunny / PC skies resumed, a few more iso / w scat popping via daytime heating here / there but will likely wait on next impulse coming across to enhance... Winds have since shifted from ESE to more S / SSW and increased some this aftn here... Had a bit over .60" amt in home gauge (only .31" amt HUML1 station) has given the parched soil a needed drink, with more next 2 days should help... Heavier rains have fallen across large portions of TX last couple days...

Tropically, E Pac season officially began today but nothing on immediate horizon... GFS indicating return of more favorable conditions toward late month, as climatologically expected, for same E Pac / Cen Am / SW to Cen Caribbean region when upper level S Am or equatorial ridge lifts far enough NWD and low level ELY waves now coming across help spark development in time... Otherwise - barring a subtropical storm oddity somewhere in Cen Atlantic or off E coast via a cut-off low - the belt of unfavorable upper level westerlies remain entrenched and currently projected to stay so next couple weeks down to 20N-15N over most of Atlantic region, leaving a narrow window of opportunity below for waves embedded along the ITCZ... Should mention that belt of upper level westerlies along 20N did show signs of some lessening temporarily the last week of April (perhaps MJO related, near normal early-season shifting of EQ ridging, or response to weakening El Nino?), but since resumed / reestablished during May... The entire mid-upper pattern over the Basin needs lift or expand another 5-10 degrees poleward for more conducive conditions... and, LOL, we know it likely will soon enough...

*****

Thanks for the posts Mush and Kalypso...
Some inspiring thoughts from Estes to reflect on, thanks Kalypso!

***

Hiya Huri,
Thanks, m'friend!
Well that was a story I wish and hope I don't have to relate again soon, but such it is living around them... I rather the story from last year when I rescued and released a corn / rat snake that got tangled in some webbing material - a much happier outcome... Yeah, didn't have much choice this time, although have pondered if could have captured / trapped and released it farther away somehow, just didn't seem feasible besides the obvious extreme danger in handling the dang venomous thing, which I have no experience doing... Bad thing about cottonmouths - they often do not run or move when walking near them... a nasty situation if ya fail to see them or God forbid, step on it... This was only 2nd one we've seen, came across one late last summer and could have stepped on it had I not been watching carefully, noticed it under some ragweeds... and never moved... He was far enough away I left it in peace...

LOL, yes... keep those golf clubs handy!
Hoping you have a fine weekend!

***

Hello Gams,
Nahhhh, I know... Indeed, it was my concern for their safety why I did it... The dang cat woulda tried pawing at it outta curiosity!

LOL, that's Code warning everybody about our building that has had a couple get in - was wide open a while after Gustav blew out the backside... Might still be some inside coulda slithered in under some cracks, I bang the hell outta everything when I go in there! I should put a sign up warning potential burglars... ;)

So glad you won the contest... and the book prize!
Yes, we all praying for miracle solution to stop the Gulf gusher as quick as they can... a tremendous volume already floating about, some globs been washing up on our islands past few days as currents have shifted, allowing more WWD movement... although surprising the greatest concentration has largely stayed closer to the source...

Freshwater fish kills not as common in Winter here, but salty fish do if get caught in shallower waters when tide blows out following an arctic front...

Wishing ya a fine weekend Gams!

Duties a calling (as watch couple shwrs / tstms trying to form nearby)...
BBL...
LOL you are right, it was Code that told me you had a barn full of snakes! LOL


Do you see that swirl of clouds just off NE South America?? HUMMMMMM
Hey Gams,
Yes, that's actually two low latitude ELY waves coming across, one near 55W, the other around 45W (both, a bit west of that by now)... No concern, other than hvy rains for parts of S Windwards / SA... but a sign of things to come! There's another wave behind these two the NHC is tracking as well... and more on the way... LOL, ya know the drill... We'll watch the E Pac / W Caribbean later as ELY waves become more frequent and conditions improve aloft to support sustained development...

Right now, the subtropical jet and it's associated band of westerlies draping roughly along 20N remains our friend!
LinkScientists: Underwater plume of oil headed out to sea
Yeah Mush, that is very concerning as I mentioned earlier there's a huge volume just sitting in place, luckily for now as appears it's been more or less trapped between the loop current and a couple eddies above on either side of the plume, which some ocean current forecasts indicate are changing... A monstrous concern in time, esp if - or rather when - a tropical cyclone stirs it up!

Gotta run...
Hi This whole thing scares me!Thanks for explaining this!:)
Mush,
As you probably know, the Gulf currents / eddies, etc are quite changeable and varied (esp from surface to depth)... One of the local TV wx guys was showing a good depiction of it the other day... Don't know his source used which showed the two eddies mentioned but you can get an idea from this one via the Navy NRL site below (which shows several eddies, including two larger ones in W Gulf)... Appears this set-up may be changing, but the ones of interest and immediate influence were - a clockwise eddy to SSW of mouth of river (west of spill), and the other counterclockwise eddy to the NE of spill, below FL panhandle... In this imagery appears another weaker one centered right over the spill, too! Easy to see how the interaction could easily pull / push the oil into the loop current...

Imagery on May 14 (edit, apparently auto-updates) -

Thanks!What I don't know I'm trying to learn!There is no way this can't effect all of us!I'm a thousand or more miles away.That doesn't make me feel safer!This is to big not to make a problem for everyone of us!I hope other people know this is all of our problem!
177. code1
Er uhmm gams? I believe you musta' just read my knees knocking together here, when Doc and I discussed this on blog last fall. LOL Sorry Doc, but you know me, only good snake is a .... one. ONE snake is too many if close to my home! You are a far better wildlife steward than I when it comes to them. Praying the marshes and estuaries of your beautiful LA, and the rest of our Gulf Coastal areas live on in our lifetimes, and for future generations. Sad time it is, even before season starts. And from predictions, my knees are knocking already! Take care.
G'day, Sunday May 16...

More shwrs / tstms developed across our area today as mid level short wave vort max passed, but heaviest has gone below, above and around this locale as often does... a couple tor-warn earlier for NOLA metro - which also reported flash flooding in spots - and MS coast, like yesterday as EF0 or two were reported / investigated... Heaviest clusters shifted well EWD now / partial clearing w handful iso / w scat were left behind popping in daytime heating, but mostly calm conditions rule... another s/w on way perhaps for tomorrow... Totals from Sat - HUML1: .41" amt, B Cane home: .71" amt, Gray: 1.30" amt... Today had identical .33" amt rain at both HUML1 and my home gauges... Welcome rain, but far from needed to offset the yearly deficit that's reached over 7" here and into moderate drought conditions thru mid-May...

***

Hiya Mush, Pat and Code!

Yep, da bleeding Gulf will affect all in time... with few losing as much potentially as South Louisiana environmentally and economically as much as we depend on both the oil industry and our seafood... Not to mention how much more adversity our already badly degraded coastal wetlands can take - putting oil back in via overcoating is NOT the restorative effort we've envisioned... Still a great unknown ahead on it's negative enviro impact, but can only hope the strong, dynamic resiliency of the Gulf to bounce back holds true against such an onslaught... It's the volume of heavier solids sinking to bottom that's concerning, as mentioned in this informative article "What about spilled oil that doesn't reach shore?"... Damn, I thought the stinging salty ocean spray / ripped up marsh mud getting slung thru the air during a hurricane was bad, hate to imagine now getting tarred too! :(

With all the negative press from this disaster likely affecting future drilling policy I bet some of the biggest critics of BP currently are within the offices of Chevron / Exxon, etc, lol...

Gotta run,
Catch yas later...
Hi I'll post this on Beachfoxs blog.:)
Dear Doc, RE post #162/cotton mouth. I hear your pain. Just wanted to remind you that nothing in this universe happens by mistake. There's always a reason for everything. That poor thing died quickly with a prayer - a privilege many don't get. Maybe you saved it from suffering a slow death by some other means. Or maybe you were the instrument of saving someone's life. We rarely find out the whys and wherefores, but one thing I know: Your suffering from the incident is enough punishment, no bad karma created.
I have to finish off some lizards that Max and Sophie catch and then leave suffering. It's horrible, but I do it with prayers and love and believe they are in a better place after they leave this earth.
I'm sure that little soul is just fine where he is now, in the arms of an angel :)
Seems that now we may get the oil spill here :(
Fri May 21,
Way too busy a week, time too short to be here blogging, lol...

Continuing watching the ever-unfolding Gulf oil disaster as oil spreads further WWD onto barrier islands, into our wetland marshes as ocean currents pattern shifted unfavorably... w Gov Bobby Jindal leading the charge, looking / speaking the part scooping up oil in nets from interior marsh for photo ops to highlight the growing extent of damage being caused... No real complaint on his leadership there, except funny how these pro-business politicans become sudden staunch environmentalists demanding immediate action after decades of lax regs and bottom-line profit-maximizing carelessness likely contributed to this!

MODIS imagery from around 1845Z Thursday aftn showed the oil threatening more of the sensitive wetlands, and can be seen when available from NRL site / Oil Spill Zoom page... That image suggested the river outflowing from SW Pass moving W / NW has helped direct some of the oil our way - so much for thought of high river level helping! ... Can also see the tiny SEWD trail where interacts w loop current which seems would indicate a lesser threat to Keys over short term if as diluted as appears... One can click "archive" of imagery for comparisons..

Rather hot, humid Summery wx continues... with a few shwrs / tstms this past week offering some slim drought relief as disturbances pass well to N... Iso to w scat expected at best from seabreeze / daytime heating over next few days, but mostly dry forecast... Interesting little brief sfc low spin up yesterday off coast of Yucatan where sfc trof lies, but zonal westerly shear preventing anything from happening... Meanwhile all watching newly designated 1st Invest 90L E of Bahamas for potential hybrid or subtropical development into next week as deep-layered E coast trof digs down / cuts off to provide enhancement, much as GFS has advertised for over a week... and will watch SW Caribbean as respectable-for-May ELY wave moves into region, with some opportunity for tropical low to attempt organization if can remain below zonal shear issue as lifts NE toward Greater Antilles... Plenty of bloggers covering this by the hour / minute, wont spend time analyzing / repeating what you've already read elsewhere in better detail... Appears that overall E coast trof / cut-off low scenario could push a sorta backdoor boundary toward us next week to enhance rain chances again, but admittedly haven't studied it either...

*******

Hiya Finn,
Thanks for words of encouragement, m'friend!
Yep, ya always wonder about the "whys" of such and it wasn't the first, won't be the last... And same here with the cat - always dragging up a mouse, frog or lizard, playing with it till it quits moving or dies... and hence my concern...

Hope the oil doesn't become a major issue in the loop / Gulf Stream, only time will tell... Meanwhile, little doubt of devastating consequences here... ;(

Take care, Finn!

***

Will put up new blog when time allows...
LOT of personal / local concerns occupying most of it right now.
Well..the BP revolt is on In my view..


LIVE BP Oil Spill Robot Cam

CBS News released an extended interview with Williams today, in which he describes in detail the explosion, subsequent fire and his escape from the rig.


Watch CBS News Videos Online

Hi DocNDswamp,
Missed you last weekend as I was off playing in the woods and mountains of eastern OK.

Looks like Kevin Costner's Giant Oil Separators are coming to the rescue. Kind of an interesting story of his development of some machines designed for this purpose post Exxon Valdez. Guess BP and the Army Corps of Engineers want to try them in the GOM next week. Won't stop the gushing but might help with cleanup.

I read the cottonmouth story. Have to second Finn's assessment. No bad karma generated.

When you get a chance, and if you want to say, what do you think of the Plaquemines Parish plan for barrier islands, not yet approved by Army COE?

Barrier Island Plan, nola.com

Have a good weekend!
Hello Doc,

have not been around here since last Saturday but you and your beloved wetlands are in my thoughts a lot as that oil is now washing ashore in your area.

just so tragic and sad; I really hope it can get cleaned up quickly before too much damage is done.

You are probably working hard trying to keep up on all the things going on right now.

take care and take some time to have some fun.

Myspace Comments
Saturday Comments - 2.0 Myspace Layouts
Hey {{{BF}}}, thanks for posting the Kevin Costner story. I take my hat off for all the sponsors and volunteers helping with this disaster.
Hi I keep wanting to say something.All I can think of is I'm sorry!
Sun aftn May 23 greetings,

Hot, plentiful sunshine and humid, with puffs of shallow cumulus streaking by... ranged 72-90 on Sat, early summer wx in SE LA with ridging overhead promising more of same... Boringly stable wx, but thankful to see NO tropical features in or near the Gulf w GFS runs so far - love seeing that persistent pattern with subtropical jet / westerly shear remaining in place! Of course, subject to change... C'mon atmosphere, let's just defy all odds / tropical gloom & doom projections and keep it ripping right over the southern Gulf all Summer thru Fall... ;)

***

Hiya Pat,

BP revolt?
Let's wait till they successfully plug the gusher (if/when) before we round up the guilty... tar and feather 'em (abundant supply, plucked from dead birds)... and perform a controlled burn of the criminally careless!
Right now, it looks like Dec 21 2012 came early... :(

Hello Barefoot,
Yes, been aware of Costner's device, it looks promising and should be employed...

The sand barrier plan is much more controversial - kinda late in my opinion and a typical reactionary desperation attempt by political officials to try anything... Like many folks, my initial reaction was favorable in that they appeared being pro-active in shoring up coastal defenses, then the inner voice of logic and reason took control of emotions... and I saw the realistic futility... Not surprisingly, our Terrebonne council voted unanimously yesterday to support this futile plan to begin dredging material / building the pathetically miniscule berm without a permit, without further assessment / input from qualified coastal geologists - nearly ALL who oppose it! Hearing usual chatter from the ignorant of not needing studies before we act... Desperate times, desperate measures with an ineffective, costly attempt that could ultimately cause worse problems...
More details on this later...

Hey Gams,
Thanks, yes it's an epic disaster in every way conceivable...
Indeed, been very busy with usual work load demands, watching the spill grow and impact, along with other ongoing / upcoming local issues such as the bayou dredging project underway - pitifully slow going, they've done about 400 ft in 10 days! And this is the easy stretch they're working on, made easy when they removed the trees obstructing their fricking access!... And a council meeting / public hearing coming up Wed eve where the pro-business / progress-at-any-cost-of-habitat developer lobby has threatened a lawsuit in trying to overturn a building moratorium that was put in effect a few months ago, before it's planned expiration period...

Wanna guess why ya don't see me here chit-chatting on WU much? LOL, I need a clone...

Hiya Finn,
You bet, a lot of fine volunteers working hard to solve this crises...

Hey Mush,
I understand what you're saying, we're all sorry to have this ugly reality happen - just like most every major blunder by mankind, a result of hastily proceeding without proper caution... Cost-cutting efficiency at it's worst!

Gotta run my friends,
BBL as can...

188. The sand barrier plan is much more controversial - kinda late in my opinion and a typical reactionary desperation attempt by political officials to try anything... Like many folks, my initial reaction was favorable in that they appeared being pro-active in shoring up coastal defenses, then the inner voice of logic and reason took control of emotions... and I saw the realistic futility... Not surprisingly, our Terrebonne council voted unanimously yesterday to support this futile plan to begin dredging material / building the pathetically miniscule berm without a permit, without further assessment / input from qualified coastal geologists - nearly ALL who oppose it! Hearing usual chatter from the ignorant of not needing studies before we act... Desperate times, desperate measures with an ineffective, costly attempt that could ultimately cause worse problems...
More details on this later...


Thanks for that, DocNDswamp. I have to respect what you know because I know you know of what ye speak.
:)

Understandably, seems almost like a collective reaction to a terminal diagnosis, a desperate grab at any possible cure that might work. I think the separators can help, and I hope to God that plugging attempt works-"top kill." They've sure engineered the he)) out of it.
{{{{{My Leo/Snake/Bro}}}}}}

You are in my thoughts and prayers, your entire area.


Today is my Dad's 76th Birthday and he always goes fishing on his birthday,
heck what am I talking about; he goes fishing every chance he gets!.

This morning he caught 9 large, I am talking Mississippi Big Crappie..he is happy.

Hope this American Nightmare is over and cleaned up sooner than later.
191. code1
Still watching the sand barrier over on my coast Doc. Not sure yet if will be a bane or savior. Does any of us know of late? Sad times for the Gulf Coast states, and yours in particular. Not wishing ill on others, especially with the past winter, but damn Ma Nature needs a chill pill or two! Be willing to supply her myself if I could. Not sure even your beloved Marie, or gris gris bag can help this year. I am afraid, very afraid for my own area for the first time in 5 or so years. Sorry to be self serving as is, but it is what it is. Not wishing ill on others in my fright either. Damn, it's about time for me to run back to the hill's of my crackerbilly existence, and I don't wanna!
Evening, Doc,

Wendy Billiot's got a new blog entry up tonight with some details about the situation in her area. Waters up to about three miles from her home are now closed to fishing, etc. She put up this map that shows with pushpins her home (far left) and places where oil's been found. The details are in the blog entry.



What I can't wrap my mind around is the response of the Coast Guard captain who self-labeled himself "slow and dumb" when questioned about the response generally and the 75,000 feet of boom neatly wrapped up on shore in Cocodrie. I'm sure there's a reason for not using that boom. I just can't imagine a good reason. As far up as the oil's gotten, the booms surely would have been protected from wave action, etc. Or maybe not.

I understand the impulse toward berms, but I can see some problems, too. One is time. Even if they'd started a month ago, I'm not sure enough progress could have been made to protect all of Terrebonne and Plaquemines parishes.

And, I'm wondering - we've had several places here where a single cut (through Redfish Island in Galveston bay) or continual pressures (the ICW south of Freeport) have just washed away everything. When Alicia cut Redfish, it took no time at all for that island to disappear (while committees "studied" the problem.)

And as much as I hate it, it's clear BP and the hordes of consulting engineers, etc. they've called in have to be the ones to deal with this. As I understand it, the military, etc. don't have the technology to work at those depths - and they sure don't have the knowledge of drilling.

I guess my plan would be: Contain the gusher. Clean up the oil. Inspect every other rig within an inch of its life. Stop the deepwater stuff. Pull every BP permit in sight and tell them to go drill in PangoPango. Explain to people in this country that it's a new world.

As soon as I work out the details on all this, I'll get right back to you! LOL


193. code1
Shore, you've said just what Doc has been saying for years now re: his home area fragile eco system. Really happy to see you've added your voice. It's important to all coasties. Sad times we are living,with Doc's beloved area taking the first and strongest hit. Take care Doc, I'll be checking in on you as always. Yours and my beaches are both safe at present, but we bleed for our brothers and sisters who are suffering. It's a coastal thing that others may, or may not understand. We grieve for others when disaster hits them as well though. I will quote "Patrap" in this instance, "calamity knows no boundaries". Sad that it seems the gulf coast is hit yet again. We are a strong people, and will survive though. Let's hope our brothers and sisters with livliehoods dependent upon our Gulf do as well. Those are the true folks I grieve over. I'm out now. Wayyyy past the time I am allotted as is.
LinkBP says "top kill" could happen later than Wednesday.HOUSTON, May 25 (Reuters) - BP Plc (BP.L) will begin a process to plug a leaking undersea oil well on Wednesday at the earliest, but it could be delayed or even abandoned if tests show it would not work, a company executive said on Tuesday.
Tue May 25...

Hot as hell yesterday as reached 94, warmest yet... and a couple stations tied or broke record - quick glance at 1 set Houma records indicated 93 in 1941, so maybe here too... However, as previously stated - our historical temp records have been adjusted, tampered and screwed beyond reliablity for comparison as my own research has proven... Had a few iso to w scat strong / severe tstms to the N on Monday, should have better chances next couple days for more... Sad circumstances force me to say - we could use a good widespread flood from hvy rains right now!

***

Hiya Barefoot, Gams, Code, Shore and Mush,
Thanks for the excellent posts, info and commentary!

Can't begin to convey how desperate and depressing this situation is as the "Blob of Doom" continues moving into our bays / waterways overcoating our wetland marshes and aquatic life daily on high tides... With subsequent low tides showing impact the next day...

What arrogance we heard from Obama admin (and idiot environmental extremist types) to push BP aside and have the fed take over... Yeah, right! Those living in a utopian-dream world of quick fixes and miraculous saves by your govt can think what ya want, I'm praying dearly that BP can successfully get this gusher plugged next couple days... As pissed as we are with them, many folks need a reality check as BP and other oil-field specialists are our only hope in dealing with such an extreme technological challenge at this point... Damn, you "Bill Maher folks" need to ditch that narcotic-haze indica stuff and go back to the more enlightening, awareness-raising sativa species, LOL!

Okay we're all crazy and desperate down here, having lost all sanity in dealing with this... Desperate enough to wonder - Why the hell can't we try something like; have the military fly C-130's (and boats) loaded with an Ivory soap solution spraying those marshes at low tide... might help, certainly it's non-lethal... No, it won't last long but neither will the pie-in-the-sky dream of creating sufficient continuous sand berm in time to stop the inflow of oil... WTF for? The damn oil is here already!!!

We need more absorbent material and especially a helluva lot more skimmers deployed... Was an outrage last Saturday that while fed, state, local govt officials at the press conference were jerking everyone off on the sand berm proposal, idle boats and boom material were sitting at the f*cking dock while the oil poured thru! Sure, I agree some closure of smaller cuts on barrier islands with sandbags, etc, wherever possible should be done ASAP, but it's completely unrealistic to think there's time to protect Terrebonne waters by sealing off from massively broad Gulf inflow we get daily... We have too many wide open areas and deep passes for that to work!!!

THAT was a fine example of the pathetic govt response, and yes, I also was astonished watching it live, when Stanton (not to be confused with move-forward / take-charge types like Gen Honore or Patton) got incensed and blabbered his sarcastic answer... You're goddamn right you were too slow and dumb, letting available resources sit idle while trying to decide who's in charge or what course to take!

Barefoot, the geologist opinion on the sand berm I read was this one - "A Scientific Case for Opposition to the Jindal-Nungesser Emergency Barrier Plan", by Dallon Weathers, Coastal Geologist... I think he makes very valid points... There have been some changes to the plan since, but for most part - it's too much, too late, time's up IMO! BTW, I forgot to say prior, glad you got to go hike the woods and mts last weekend, soothing to the soul, eh?

Gams, now that sounds great - glad your Dad got to go catch a few! Been hearing great reports lately from freshwater action here too... Saw a pic of a guy claimed to caught a 3.8 lb sac-a-lait in Lake Verret area last weekend! (Hope he was exaggerating on the weight, as will knock my fish further down the state records top 10 list if verified, LOL!)...

Code, so true m'friend... beyond belief this (latest) disaster is... Make room in those hills as Gulf coast relocation is a reality after viewing the full potential, sheer volume lurking offshore... To consider, this is prime time for all seafood / fishery / rookery reproduction activity... With the carelessness of this event, BP just bought whatever will be left of SE LA!

Great post Shore!
Same here... what a childish response by CG's Stanton who was caught "lookin' like a fool with pants-on-the-ground"... read / agree with Wendy B's post, the horrible reality is here, now... And that's my point about the cuts - some can be patched, but a lot are too deep and established by Gulf tides to close off...

Thanks for the link, Unc Mush... Yes, this op is fraught with peril and possible failure...

Meanwhile - deploy the aerial spotters / boom and skimmer operations en masse!!! Stock trader tip of the day - Abanaki Oil Skimmers... and Crucial Inc... Many weapons in the arsenal conceivably if we get 'em on the water pronto!

God, what a nightmare... not even midway through... with tropical season looming to drive the final nail in our coffin...

Bill M - quit bogarting, pass de indica spliff, mon... I need an excuse for the state of mental confusion I'm in and it might afford some anxiety / depression relief... *sigh* ...

BBL when I can, m'friends...

Hiya Doc,
It sure is depressing to hear about the oil spill, etc. I appreciate you posting about it as I am not fully trustful of getting a complete and accurate reporting from other sources.

I read an article in the Washington Post this morning about Thad Allen. I wanted to send you the link but I cannot find it. It was a soft piece about Thad the man and the efforts to stop and recover from the oil spill.

It is one thing to be here with you during an approaching storm, worrying over you during the storm and watching to hear from you after the storm. This oil thing is totally different. More than a month of misery and mystery.

Okay that was way more sentences than I intended to write. What I really came here to do was thank you for your reporting and commentary about this thing and to ask you how is your mother doing? I figure she must be a mighty wise woman, after all she's the mother of a wise man.
Hi DocNDswamp,
Stanton, maybe the bigwigs sent him out there to do a little comic relief. Sheesh.

Sweet of you to acknowledge my trip to the mountains. Yes, to be one with Nature renews my soul and my whole being. An altered state. I can only try to imagine what your heart feels and how your soul must hurt over this oil invasion into areas that have sustained you your entire life.

And the loss of habitat and wildlife and livelihood that's likely to occur... Oh, God. (insert prayer) (mod.) All I can do is say, "I'm so sorry."

Would it help if I send you a case of Ivory soap?
:)

Thanks for the link. I read it all and posted it over at Foxxy's.
Been thinking about ya, Doc, mon cher. And your beloved wetlands and bayous.

Breaks my heart.

This thing is a monster and it will reach much further, and cause more damage, than just in the GOM. And for decades to come.

I know that this is just a blip in time but for us and the next few generations, it is an eternity.


HiyaDoc again,
I realize I forgot to tell you another thing I wanted to. There was a baby cardinal that I noticed out of the corner of my eye. mama and daddy cardinal were about making some commotion. I watched (probably too closely) the babe hop different places over a number of hours. During that long day, I noticed that the babe had stayed put in front of a gray stone that marked a pathway. I hadn't been there with it for the solid two hours, but I suppose he had stayed put that long. I felt that I had to DO something and asked someone to pick the babe up and try to find the nest to put it in. No nest was visible. We ended up putting the beautiful creature on a walled off area under the low bushes where we thought the nest might be. That was on Friday, when I last looked into his life-filled eyes. When I returned on Monday the life within him was gone. I realize now that I should not have done anything and that if I had left him alone maybe there would have been another outcome. (Ego speaking, of course.) Anyway, the whole thing reminds me that we are not in control; we do not always "know" the right thing to do. That lifeless body--still blending in with the thick vegetation--is also my "connection" to the unfolding in the gulf. If there is that much human pain in seeing/being a part of the short life of the cardinal in a beautiful healthy setting, what greater pain there is in the grandeur of the gulf.
Doc,
Thank you for giving us you thoughts on this sad situation. Glad you got to vent a little and provide us with some information.
No one understands what is going on better than someone that is there in the middle of the mess.

Patience has nver been my strong suit; and anytime I need to use a "Goverment facility" I dread it so much because I know I am going to end up pissed off.
No one can or will make a decision and they wait and wait until it is too late to do anyone any good..and both sides just love to point fingers at each other...

I wish someone will do something positive and I pray the experiment action they are going to do at 6:30am will work this time...

Hang in there, we are all rooting for your beautiful wetlands.

ESRI Gulf Oil Spill Response

ESRI Gulf Oil Spill Response: This group contains maps, data, and applications related to the Gulf of Mexico oil spill.
Hiya, Doc,

You may have seen this post on the top kill process from The Oil Drum. If not, it might be worth your time. I had a much better idea of what they're up to when I finished reading it. I noticed on Twitter that The Oil Drum is one of 40 sites that BP itself is following, which suggests it's reputable and/or influential.

The comments section's interesting, too. Sometimes I felt like I was reading Doc Master's blog - plenty of comedians and folks with wacky convictions - but it still was worthwhile.

One thing's clear when you listen to people who know something about drilling talk about all this. The chance of something going wrong is significant. The problem isn't just that it might not work. The problem is the process itself might make the situation worse. (That theme keeps coming up, doesn't it?)

If BP decides to back off for a time, I'd be willing to listen to their reasons. If they do delay it, I hope they make their reasons crystal clear.

I ran into some of your Terrebonne neighbors over at Bayou Grace. They wanted to stop by and sing you a little song. They make me feel better. Maybe they'll help you feel a little better, too.





DeepwaterHorizonJIC — May 24, 2010 — Animated footage of the "top kill" procedure which BP will perform later this week at the Deepwater Horizon site in an effort to stop the leak. Find out more by visiting http://deepwaterhorizonresponse.com.

Doc,

My heart is aching for you, LA, and the entire Gulf Coast Region....
Just wanted you to know, you & all of LA are in my thoughts. :*{


Worried Terrebonne residents hear from Alaskan oil spill survivors

by Bill Capo / Eyewitness News

wwltv.com

Posted on May 25, 2010 at 6:32 PM

POINTE AUX CHENES, La. -- There were tears on the bayou, as Pointe Aux Chenes residents Gilbert and Gayle Dardar threw the shrimp he just caught over the side of his boat. In the middle of his fishing trip, state officials closed the area, so they are afraid to sell or keep the catch.

"What are we going to do?" asked Gayle. "How are we going to survive?"

Gilbert and Gail wonder what the oil spill will do to the way of life that has supported the Dardar family for three generations.

"How am I going to pay my house note that I'm almost finished?" she said as she cried. "I'm going to lose everything."

So the Native Americans from South Louisiana met with their counterparts from Alaska to learn about the lasting effects of a major oil spill, and the news was scary.

"You're losing loved ones," said Patience Andersen-Faulkner, of the Prince William Sound, Alaska Regional Citizens Advisory Council. "Quite a few suicides. I bet you we have in Cordova one a year at least, if not two a year."

They shared a lunch of shrimp and crabs as they shared news about oil still polluting Alaska from Exxon Valdez, lost wildlife species, and the impact on fishing there.

"The times are very, very tough," Anderson-Faulkner said. "First of all, we have not got our herring back, 21 years later. So will they get their fishing back here? Well, we just went out for shrimp for the first time in about 17 years."

"It could be the end of fishing in this area, all the types of fishing, the shrimp and the oysters and the fin-fish, and therefore the loss of their culture," added Dr. Shirley Laska, of the UNO Center For Hazard Response and Technology.

Just this morning they discovered oil in the marshes just four miles away from here. It was terribly frightening to find it so close to home, so they met with BP officials to ask for help.

"We don't have one inch of boom anywhere along our inner lakes, not one inch of boom," Gayke Dardar exclaimed. "We rode out there. There is oil, we should have some boom."

"We're here to supply them with some boom," Nathan Chiava of British Petroleum responded. "We'll have some out here tomorrow, so they can go out and protect their tribal lands."

But the biggest worry for fishermen is whether they can stay afloat financially until the area recovers, and that is something their counterparts from Alaska understand.

"They'll get their way of life back, but it won't be what they're used to," Patience Andersen-Faulker said.
Wed May 26...

Hi folks,

Jeeez, I've had enough Summer heat already - if it counts, we shattered our record high yesterday as HUML1 hit a scorching 96F! List from 1930-2001 showed old one was 92 in 1996... Right after, nearby tstm knocked temp to mid 70's, had 35 mph gust, hvy lightning... but not a drop of rain! Sheesh, Arizona type tstms... No clue on today's data yet as LAIS system is currently down, but it's sultry hot again... Meanwhile - nice blow-up of hvy convection in E Pac with Invest 90E...

Thanks for your excellent posts, m'friends...
Sorry to say, really lack the time right now to respond as would like to... but really appreciate the comments, info and input - and genuine concern - from ALL of you! I'll try to backtrack / respond a bit later if I can, but badly up against the clock... Hey, we're all suffering from this national tragedy, so...

(((Thanks and hugs))) Huri, Barefoot, Bug, Gams, Pat, Shore and Foxx!

Came on briefly last night, read your comments, caught the Oil Drum link and was reading there when got phone call from my cousin who's an in-the-trenches, knowledgable veteran in the oil industry... Our discussion went hand in hand with the Oil Drum site discussion as exchanged info and thoughts, till after midnight... We concluded with agreement that neither of us ever thought we'd see a disaster of such magnitude in our lifetime... despite the long and frequent history of both manmade and natural (often combined) disasters across SE LA...

Everyone is praying for success of Top Kill operation, now underway...

From Courier reports, here is clear evidence of what I feared, as mentioned before esp in E / SE Terrebonne where there is minimal freshwater outflow to help offset.. The oil is steadily advancing fairly far NWD over very rich, prime seafood / fishery habitat... Learned a bit better news today for W Terrebonne as LDWF reopened fishery there... for now...

Oil spotted below Pointe-aux-Chenes

The oil flowing to Lake Chien should put BP and the Coast Guard on alert for more oil in lakes along Terrebonne Parish’s eastern edge and focus clean-up efforts elsewhere than the barrier islands, where it is impossible to stop oil with booms, said Kerry St. Pé, head of the Barataria-Terrebonne National Estuary Program.

“With each passing day, more and more marshes are going to be impacted. It is a sign that we should be ramping up the concern. We should be addressing the oil as it comes in,” he said.


You betcha Kerry, amen...
And in another article in The Courier / Houma Today... What many of us long suspected how this massive failure happened appears clear - thanks to some corporate a$$hole sitting in an office hundreds of miles away that overruled the on-site drillers who KNEW the gravity of the situation unfolding...

After long argument, BP official made fatal decision on drilling rig

One employee was so mad, the rig's chief mechanic Doug Brown testified, that he warned they'd be relying on the rig's blowout preventer if they proceeded the way BP wanted.

"He pretty much grumbled, 'Well, I guess that's what we have those pinchers for,'" Brown said of Jimmy Harrell, the top Transocean official on the rig. "Pinchers" was likely a reference to the shear rams in the blowout preventers, the final means of stopping an explosion.

Brown said in sworn testimony on Wednesday that the BP official stood up during the meeting and said, "This is how it's going to be."


And we know the consequences of that careless decision... Wonder how he's been sleeping lately???

BBL when can...
Perhaps you might know some snawers to these questions? Everyone is talking about the oil - no one is speaking about the gases!!! Is there Hydrogen sulfide & Methane Gases being spewed - and how much?


Hydrogen sulfide combines with water, and since the spill is one mile down, will the majority of the hydrogen sulfide be absorbed into water?? which in turn would make the Gulf become acidic ???Killing fish, sea life , plankton? Could the Gulf "Burp" up the gas & clouds of the stuff come wafting ashore ????
Watch live streaming video from wkrg_oil_spill at livestream.com
Hey, Doc...

Like everyone else, I've been pretty much glued to the live feeds and latest updates on that top kill attempt.

Surely do hope it works. I'm not conversant with the technicalities of drilling and how things get repaired. In the last few days, I've been getting a mini-course in the subject. Problem is, there are so many mouths wagging about it and I have no idea who or what to believe, at this point. I have gathered that the top kill procedure is usually considered a last ditch effort. Did your cousin know of other credible and workable options?

Where, oh where, is Red Adair when you need him? Well, I do know where he is but can't he come back? Please, Red? Pretty please?
Thu May 27...

Well some encouragement with the Top Kill procedure so far, as been reported since early morn from LA Times...

Surfmom,
I'm certainly not qualified to answer such... No doubt lot of gasses / VOC's been released, altering the ocean's chemical balance in immediate affected area... As for methane / hydrogen sulphide interaction, one source I found concerned with the seeps off CA mentioned "Methane bubbles dissolve other gases, notably hydrogen sulphide and carbon dioxide, during their ascent."

The clearly multiplied toxic effects from BP's insistent use of Corexit dispersant is even more concerning to me, as reports from several workers that got sick indicated they came in contact with high concentration of the gooey mixture, or the fumes off it... obviously worse in calm wind conditions / hot wx... Sheeesh, this crap might be something the microbes can't break down as readily over time...

Hey Bug,
Yes, we've all gotten quick education on Gulf drilling, including many experts! Latest news indicates Top Kill is working, it's clear the drilling mud was circulating thru the well, closing off the oil leak... Fingers remain crossed that can successfully cement soon after... As for other options, realistically only the relief wells being drilled will safely entomb it...

Just noticed, the Washington Post article, also has petroleum expert Greg McCormick taking questions on issues presently...

***

E Pac disturbance below Tehuantepec looking better organized today with NHC listing high probability for TD development...
Hi Doc,

Just stopping in to get caught up and lend you support anyway I can just being here.

I am so praying they get that gusher plugged today...

and then the cleanup must get started in earnest.

We know you are so busy, but take time to take care of yourself too.

Sheeesh, this crap might be something the microbes can't break down as readily over time...

That's the crux of the bisquit Doc. These dispersants are for show. They were never intended to be used in these volumns.

They will interupt the natural breakdown of the oil...

We need the best and brightest working 24/7 right now figuring out how to heal our sick Gulf and marshes.
215. OGal
You know Doc I have been staying out of your blog because I just don't know what to say to you. You were such a good sport going through two hurricanes pulling yourself back together and just goin on and now this. OMG, I wish I could click my fingers and make it all better.

I did research on Corexit, the dispersant BP is using. Scares the bejeebies out of me. Such horrible things can come from it and we are infecting our wetlands, humans and sea life with this stuff. This will go on for years shutting down the reproductive systems of everything. I am just sick.

I am with Gams. If you need anything please let me know. I just wish for you that none of this toxic soup ruins the wetlands close to you.
Gonna repost the link Shore provided, with current ongoing discussions with Top Kill, etc, at The Oil Drum... Some knowledgable insiders there in the mix...

Hiya Gams, TK and OGal!
Thanks for the love and support, friends...

So true, Corexit should never have been used, but of course, BP had a vested interest in the company that produces it, claims other "somewhat less toxic" dispersants were not available in adequate volume... You bet, we'd have been better off had no dispersants been used...

Well, the wetlands, surrounding waterways ARE taking a huge hit as we speak... Last couple days, reports I heard the smell is very noticeable across South Terrebonne (not so much here yet, but had NE winds lately)... Guess I remain an outlier in saying how f'ing stupid our politicians sound as they try to appear pro-active with the sand berm dredging miracle they're dreaming up - at least gives them another chance at finger-pointing to someone higher up that wouldn't allow this "protection" to be built in time... totally unrealistic to think it could in best of circumstances, other than dropping sand bags on small island cuts where possible, or building up what's already there, sure as said before, do it ASAP where logistically practical...

Meanwhile the oil is here and continues coming in, past the barrier islands into interior waterways / marshlands... Where are the massive containment / skimmer operations that's needed? Whatever is underway is WAY too little! To hell with blaming BP for this part - the Coast Guard needs take charge and act responsibly to the immediate situation... Dammit, we need more crews and equipment!!! THIS is what Jindal needs address, not more jerking everybody's chain on the dredge mirage... What they're proposing appears a miniscule version of what we really need done - This IS NOT the comprehensive restoration of the barrier islands that has been in planning for years / decades, from what I've seen... LOL, but to oppose and try point out the futility, one gets nailed as an obstructionist...
Hi, Doc,

Just in to check out the progress and found a new thread on Oil Drum re: the need to reduce the amount of leakage before beginning the cementing process. Because it's a new thread there aren't many comments, but this sums up the situation fairly well:

The leakage rate is significant. I calculated earlier that it was around 17,000 bd, which lies within the newly reported range of 12,000 to 19,000 bd, and may have been higher than BP were actually anticipating... the leak may also have increased a little as the mud was injected at higher pressures.
The operation has already used all the mud on one of the supply boats and has moved to the second (there is a third standing by so they won't run out). The concern is now with the volume of cement that will be required for the seal.

The high volume that is leaking would require that additional amount to the volume needed for the seal itself, and that may be closer to the available capacity of the system that they have in place, or the supplies that they have on site to achieve the seal. If that is the case, one can understand the desire to at least partially plug the leaks in the BOP, and to wait until the mud column fully balances the pressure in the oil reservoir before starting this phase of the operation.

Until this point in the operation the volume of cement required to create an effective plug has not been seen as an issue.


There are a lot of antsy folks posting to this thread. If I was in the command center at this point I'd be sweating blood, mud and golf balls all at the same time. I don't think this is a done deal, at all - very nervous about what's happening.

Of course, the folks in charge of all this anticipated these problems, right? Right????


UghOh Shore,
So what does this mean?
I get nervous when you say,
"Of course, the folks in charge of all this anticipated these problems, right? Right????
"
Hi, huri! Oh, my. I don't want you to be nervous, too. How about I just be nervous for both of us for a while? I don't mind at all, and if I get tired of being nervous I'll just let you take over for a bit ;-)

What I meant by my little comment is just that I think our nice engineers and geologists and such are flying by the seat of their pants. No one's ever dealt with anything quite like this.
It's like Apollo 13 all over again, and we're at the point those folks were when they were waiting to reestablish radio contact. They didn't have a clue what was going to happen.

Same thing now. They've got experience with these procedures, but not at this depth. The fact that the robots and the other equipment have functioned so beautifully is amazing - now we just have to be patient along with them while they figure out "what next". You don't want to rush, that's for sure!

Except I have to rush back out to the dock and do some more varnishing now that it's cooling off. It's summer, for sure! We'll see how things look later this evening. ;-)
Edited

Thanks Sister Shore.

I do like the idea of leaving the worrying to you (selfishly I'll say). Anyway do count on me to take over when you need a break. In the meantime I'll try to fight off worrying about you worrying and feeling guilty that you are carrying the load.

Good luck with the evening varnish.

We drove around the river last night and it was so beautiful at high tide with the full moon and the floating fowl. (Ever thankful that our fowl have beaks and paddle devices, not to mention the w vs. u)
Hi DocNDswamp,
Sure you already know this. Looks like a modified berm plan has begun, or near-so. Just gonna put it here as general info for your readership.
:)

Houma Courier

Los Angeles Times

HUGS!!

huri,
A smile for your brilliance...
Ever thankful that our fowl have beaks and paddle devices, not to mention the w vs. u
Fri May 28...

Oil Drum home page...

Well I did it again... came on last night, saw the latest Oil Drum link and read, read, read, deciphered the sensible posts from the chaff, digested, read some more till fell out too tired to comprehend any further... Somebody please wake me up from this month-long nightmare...

So true Shore, the cautious optimism for success was dealt a set-back watching how it went yesterday... but certain those issues were expected, lol, as much as one can anticipate the unknown... Yes, the comparison with space flight obstacles / complications is the closest similarity, although obviously much higher stakes here...

Hope your evening varnishing went well - us outdoor workers operate by wx conditions, favorable time of day, not a clock! I enjoy working the last 2-3 hrs thru sunset...

Huri -
To backtrack, thanks for asking, Mom's doing okay, 'bout status quo... Also, that was a touching story on the baby cardinal and who knows, I've done same in past, some succeed / some don't... It might have been abandoned w same results regardless if anyone tried to help or not... I got lucky with a similar event last week - was cutting grass when at last second realized was about to run over a baby carolina wren! Went to pick it up and he flew into nearby tree branch, so happy ending that time!

Hey Barefoot,
Thanks for the linkage... Sure, I say go for it where they can, lol...

Now here's an example of our finest on the TPCG council doing what they do best - protecting business interests over the concerns of the public, despite our community's uncertain future looming with a devastated fishery / crippled oil industry... Despite being under an environmental state of emergency, despite serious drainage issues haven't been addressed, or miserably congested traffic issues, or that we're rapidly destroying what little natural habitat is left in N Terrebonne... they caved in, cowering to fat-cat developer threats of a lawsuit -

(from Courier)
Council overturns construction ban

HOUMA %u2014 A construction ban in north Terrebonne Parish was overturned Wednesday.

The council voted 5-4 to end the ban, which prohibited commercial and industrial construction on land that drain into the CCC Ditch, a four-mile drainage artery that runs parallel to West Park Avenue in Gray.

About six residents from the area asked that the ban remain in place until drainage work is complete.

Councilman Joey Cehan, who proposed eliminating the ban, has said he did so because of a lawsuit against the parish and the threat of others. Here's how the vote went:

For: Cehan, Bill Hebert, Pete Lambert, Johnny Pizzolatto and Clayton Voisin.

Against: Teri Cavalier, Alvin Tillman, Kevin Voisin and Arlanda Williams.


LOL, the next lawsuit may be class-action from citizens tired of getting flooded and endlessly screwed and ignored! I do thank the brave, intelligent four who enacted and supported the construction ban...
Keep all this in mind when you hear the cries to Save Our Wetlands / Barrier Islands... while we readily destroy N Terrebonne wildlife and habitat for "progress"...

Yeah, that's how we roll in Terrebonne as always - Ignore the negative consequences, business as usual / dollars to be made, we gotta go forward with progress NOW! Just biding my time waiting for an intensifying Cat 5 to slam this idiot community and it's business-first mentality into the oblivion it ecologically deserves!!! ... Very sad to say something so horrible, like a death wish, but I'm pissed (as expected would be with the vote) after watching 6 decades of the mindless insanity that surrounds me... Somehow, there's an analogy to the BP disaster of proceeding hastily without proper caution / safeguards that our "community leaders" do not WANT to see, lack the comprehension / foresight to understand... :(

***

Tropics:
Satellite imagery suggests we may already have a TD with E Pac disturbance roughly centered near 13N 95W, but not yet called by NHC...

GFS has shown for about a week, our friendly shearing zonal westerlies aloft will disappear by 2nd week June with more favorable tropical upper ridge building NWD... With last 4 cycles showing sfc low disturbance lifting from Cen Am somewhere into W half Gulf, perhaps BOC into S TX... Usual caveats at such long range...

Gotta run, still praying for top kill / junk shot miracle to stop the leak next day or so...

Hope everyone elsewhere is having a brighter day,
BBL when can...
'Morning Doc, my LEO/Snake/Bro,

sometimes I think the world has gone crazy...
and from reading your post, I think you agree.

I am all for "sane and environmentally safe" development but do it somewhere that is not on such fragile lands.. or in the path of a hurricane that could wipe it all away.

My nephew is in Guam for 3 weeks while on break from USAF Military College in Colorado (forgot the name) and he sent back hundreds of pictures..the thing I noticed the most.. none of the beaches had any developement on them.. well maybe 3 hotels but that was IT.. miles and miles of deserted beaches surround that island.. and they went hiking in the jungle and got beautiful pictures of waterfalls and undeveloped property.
nice to know some places are still undeveloped.

will that oil well ever go dry since it does not appear they are ever going to be able to plug it?

We need so many clean up crews out in the GOM cleaning up that oil; as much as we can get to..

sickening.


but we still need to remember our Heroes this weekend.
take care of yourself.

Myspace Comments
Memorial Day Graphics - Myspace 2.0 Layouts
G'day Gams,
Thanks, and Memorial Day observance greetings back at ya!

Well I know it's all driving me insane, lol!
Terrebonne has proven itself to be totally hypocritical on environmental issues when it really counts, as we PLEAD TO THE WORLD to help us save our wetlands - a long neglected, worthy need, undeniably - but, as actions speak louder than words, has shown NO REALISTIC, TANGIBLE EVIDENCE of "good stewardship" in preserving what we have left when the choice comes to being ecologically responsible.. or siding with business interests in maintaining this "illusion of progess"...!

There's a serious issue that HAS to be addressed in some way... and it's gonna require a challenge, or adjustment, to a basic freedom we have, one of our rights as Americans that we cherish... and it's one that has allowed both great prosperity / growth on one hand, and horrible ecological consequences on the other when govt entities allow it to blossom out of control - our private property rights that entitle one to do as see fit with it... In many locations, there are severe restrictions when it's apparent those actions will negatively affect others, but that aspect is largely swept under the rug here...

I wish I had an easy solution, and it's clear to me that there needs to be some way to address this in a relatively satisfactory manner that is fair to a property owner in the land's potential value, perhaps with a tax incentive program or in the extreme cases that we're up against here, that offers a local, state or fed govt buyout of sufficient greenspace parcels, land left undeveloped or mostly natural state between developments... And it has to be adequate size to be effective, not the ridiculous 15 ft strip between that's currently mandated, lol... Hell, I would GLADLY PAY A DEDICATED TAX that goes toward purchasing such property!!!

It is total ecological insanity - in this environmentally sensitive area - to allow the complete development of all our former farm lands / sugar cane fields, pastures, vacant lots, destroy the last of our limited remaining upland forest / wooded habitat with severe landscape modification, covering everything in concrete... With every new development, we're just pouring more water on ourselves, causing greater / more frequent floods...

Here's a simple equation from the USGS that should be factored in when permitting decisions are made -

THE VOLUME OF WATER TOTALLED FROM A SINGLE ONE INCH OF RAINFALL FALLING ON ONE ACRE GROUND IS 27,154 GALLONS!!!

That is the amt of water that the undeveloped, natural land can absorb - varies of course due to soil type, but clearly if covered with development, that is the additional amount being forced into local drainage systems per acre - and we've had hundreds of acres sacrificed to development over just the past 5 years that has NOT BEEN ACCOUNTED FOR! ... At our low elevation - and surrounded by water already - the drainage systems are becoming more easily overwhelmed, backing up causing floods on both new and older homes / businesses... LOL, as councilwoman Williams who supported the construction ban stated - "New home buyers are purchasing homes, not swimming pools"... and every attempt should be made to ensure they wont be subjected to such, nor that such new development threatens others... Heck, the Planning Commision members know it, as one recently stated to effect of "how can we justify issuing permits in areas that we know will flood later"... LOL, no sh*t Sherlock... Yet, they continue to issue permits to appease the business interests today and let tomorrow be a problem...

Now here's another issue that NO ONE HAS DARED ADDRESS - the IMPACT AND LOSS on the little remaining inland wildlife habitat, those wooded sections rapidly being destroyed with no attempt to preserve ANY of it...
What an irony - I cannot hunt game on my own property out of season or without a license from the LDWF, or bulleye rabbits at night... NO, THESE LAWS WERE ENACTED TO PROTECT OUR VALUED WILDLIFE FROM ABUSE... BUT, there is NOTHING, I mean ABSOLUTELY NO LAWS to stop a developer from KILLING ALL WILDLIFE, or forcing wildlife migration onto surrounding properties and COMPLETELY DESTROYING THAT WILDLIFE HABITAT FOREVER by chainsaws / bulldozers in very short order with NO COMPENSATING for, or even acknowledgment of that loss!!! There has been NO ACCOUNTING OF THIS ECOLOGICAL INJUSTICE and INSENSITIVITY!!!
Where's the sensibilities people???

LOL, okay... I feel better... and this is good exercise to release mounting frustrations, partially a rough draft for the forthcoming LETTER that will go to the blind or arrogantly greedy that need the message shoved deep inside till it sticks better than the junk-shot BP has tried so far!!! Otherwise, well I don't condone such, but can understand why the downtrodden resort to violent terrorist tactics when left no viable alternative for justice... That said, I laughed at the idiot Greenpeace activists that were properly arrested at Fourchon past week for their disruptive behavior...

*****

E Pac's TD 1 became TS Agatha this morning and continues strengthening... after became better consolidated under that convective blob late yesterday / overnight after shedding the conflicting effects of a nearby relic mid-upper circulation waned to it's W / NW, as it appeared to me, upper conditions improved and sfc-mid circulation aligned and tightened... TS Agatha should continue drifting ENE / NE toward landfall on the border region of Guatamala / Mexico, as it's captured in deeper SWLY steering flow... One station to watch today is Retalhuleu, Guatemala as Agatha should pass close or over it (hopefully data feed maintained)... Seriously hvy rainfall threat there for life-threatening flooding / mudslides... dissipating as tropical entity while slides NE over Yucatan next few days, although could in time bring additional rain to FL peninsula, however, all guidance shows very little chance to redevelop into significant feature Gulf right now as disruptive shearing westerlies still should prevail, per medium range outlooks... We'll watch...

Locally, shwrs / strong tstms on tap again - popping now outside - as cut-off mid-upper low feature continues retrograding WWD over our area, promising chances of a rather off / on soggy holiday weekend... But, we need the rain, so be it...

Nope... not commenting much on oil spill efforts, just hoping / praying for resolution... Locally, clean-up efforts have shown much better focusing / progress in containment, but we got a loooooong way to go in this catastrophic disaster...

Take care all,
BBL as can...
It feels good to vent doesn't it?
I am a true believer in venting to get it out of the system.

Especially when you feel passionately about something important to you.

I get pretty upset about our Everglades and Lake Okeechobee! So I understand.

We all hope people comes to their senses before it is too late....
Wish it were true, Gams, but just look at the history of mankind - the lust of greed is too strong, overrules all responsible thinking into the delusional belief of advancing for the greater good of a community... which it rarely is with respect for maintaining a coherent ecosystem to coexist with... LOL, humans are indeed a voracious cancer upon the earth, whether folks have the fortitude to confront the truth and admit it or not... I offered some thoughts on a solution, but the greedy will always strive to want to make more, never satisfied despite whatever wealth they've already accumulated... This GREED is a virus that many confuse with proper, respectable ambitions for success in life...

***

Latest viewing of sat imagery suggests the deeply strong convection / intensely cold tops within TS Agatha from earlier has waned some and cloud tops subsequently warmed, likely diurnal period effects...

(edit) - May have to shut down comp, lightning getting stronger nearby, still little rain fallen here yet, lol... but, when it does, look out... could be very heavy! Did someone mention floods following drought?

BBL...
Hi DocNDswamp,
Oh I feel for you and your environmental concerns. You know that. Your thoughts reminded me of things I may have mentioned years ago but perhaps bear mentioning again.

Private property rights certainly come to bear. However, the way that property may be developed rests with law and lawmakers. (I know I'm not saying anything you don't already know.) Point being, laws can change.

I don't know the bent of the majority of your populace related to development, and I have no idea whether old families are doing the developing or outside business interests have moved in to buy up property from old families and develop. And are locals buying the new homes or starting business in these new developments? Again, I don't know.

What I do know is my experience from the San Juan Islands which may apply in some way. First, a TAX. They call it a Land Bank tax. Funded by a 1% buyers real estate tax on every real estate transaction, the tax is used to purchase large and small properties based on ecology, habitat, or sometimes just based on who knows who (lol) but it has preserved for public use pieces of waterfront, farm land and wetland areas that otherwise would have been developed. The county offers HUGE tax incentives for those who place land into Agricultural and Forest Open Space. Doesn't mean it could not be developed but in order to do so a person would have to pay all the back years' regular taxes. Often someone will take just an acre out of open space for buildings and leave the remainder in the open space tax program. Talking some of the priciest real estate in the country here, so the government does take a hit in the income belt. A trade-off, maybe, because the real estate that's available keeps going up and up in price and taxes on it increase proportionally. I'd guess nowadays it would take $200K to purchase a decent, non-view, inland five acres upon which, by law, you would be allowed to build ONE home.

The downside's easy to figure. Housing unaffordable to all but the rich and well-established. Very little employment opportunity.

Somewhere there's a balance.

The basic laws aimed at protecting areas of WA State that had experienced high growth rates have been in effect since WA passed the 1990 Growth Management Act. Each county enacts and manages its "Comprehensive Plan" laws at the local level. A whole 'nother set of 1972 regs, enacted and voted in by State citizens, the Shoreline Management Act, considers property within 200 ft of shoreline on salt water, greater than 20-acre lakes, and some rivers.

Doc, I guess I could have made this a lot shorter by just saying, have you ever thought about getting into politics? Can't help thinking if you'd been sitting on the Terrebone Parish council, that vote would've gone 5-4 the other direction.

And you know a building Cat 5 coming in is NOT out of the question. No wishcasting involved. Pity if that's what it takes to open people's eyes.
When did you start posting? I was looking back at leftyy420's blog the night Wilma exploded and you were there.
Evening, Doc,

Back for a little chit-chat later, but thought you would want to read this from today's NYTimes:

Documents Show Early Worries About Safety of Rig

They were struggling with well control as early as March and were especially concerned with the well casing and BOP eleven months ago. This is a damning piece. There was knowledge of problems all up and down the line. No out-of-the-blue anomaly here. Time to move to criminal liability sez me.

There also is a piece by Bob Herbert I think you'll find congenial ;-)


shore,
I read an article today... let me find it... U.S Attorney, anyway, is opening a criminal investigation.

Add:
?Preparing to, or has? Feds weigh a criminal probe of BP

And, with that, I will say RIP Dennis Hopper and Good night, Doc and shore.
Sunday May 30,

Num shwrs / tstms around again... had lotta lightning, downburst wind gusted near 40 yesterday, brief 15 sec worth hail but no hvy rain at the house - .26" amt... near same so far today...

Prayers / best wishes to our friends in Cen Am with TS Agatha flooding...

And the Macondo Monster keeps spewing... hope BP makes some progress this week with next LMRP effort...

***

Hiya Barefoot,
Dang, sure sad to hear of Hopper's passing... what a career, a visionary genius, comedian and scary lunatic nut-case... rolled-up (pun) into one!

Thanks again for the links and info... yep, laws can and do change, if the majority is willing... lol, like ya said, often who ya know as what one can / can't do and I'm sure that's more true in LA than WA... The really sad part about the developers is nearly ALL of them are local folks that grew up here, taking advantage of situation with their wealth / position of power... Both developing on their own and selling to outsiders, etc.. and all have been encouraged in sucking up the post-hurricane recovery govt grant money that's been floated around all across SE LA since Katrina... and add in Rita / Gustav / Ike govt dollars, it's been a merry-go-round of federally sponsored growth / "recovery"... As always with corporate welfare we see with business / govt interaction, while simple folks slammed the worst receive little meaningful assistance... One of these developments-in-the-works has a federal 10 million dollar infusion available as "hurricane recovery" funds to build (so-called) affordable housing... So you can see why they wanna rush these damn developments - all about satisfying that greed lust to cash in... LOL, I suggest fed money like that should go in another direction - to existing homeowners to cover (recover) our outlandish home insurance hurricane deductible, if realistic true govt help for the people impacted the most was the primary goal (as should be)!
Sadly, another devastating hurricane won't open any eyes in a way meaningful to bolstering our ecological existence, other than those seeing dollars to be made post-event, aided / abetted by the fed...

LOL, down here it's - "Build, baby, build"!!!

Sentiment on the construction ban runs the gammit from those who dislike "obstructionists to progress" to those who fear getting flooded by further development, but another related issue surfaced recently - work on one of the targeted drainage canals during the moratorium was halted as idiot council failed to simply renew the expiring ACE permit! So it goes, here... (and yes, the Corps oversees about everything done here... why I called them directly to point out concerns with the other project months ago!)

The massive catastrophy in the Gulf may change a lot of what happens here with future developments, considering the potential loss of fisheries / seafood and a now-crippled oil industry... Read some ghost town fears being discussed in Houma Today forums...

Me, involved in politics?
LOL... only if can become Absolute Ruler, or dictator with total authority... LOL, the Doctator!
Otherwise it's a 3 ring circus and I doubt have the temperment or patience... Nor the time to donate - in all fairness, it's a tough job council members have earning that 1200 bucks a month salary!

***

Hey SSI,
Yep, remember that night well... Was posting here a little while before, I joined WU / made 1st comment after Katrina, on the day that Rita bombed out into a Cat 5, setting low pressure record in Gulf... Sept 21 2005... Might have been before, but I seem to remember our 1st comment exchange was maybe a laugh over your Dean Wormer "Animal House" post during TS Delta on Jeff's blog...! Seems like only yesterday... ;)

***

Hello Shore,
Yes, one calamity of multiple errors by BP all along, wasn't it? Such an avoidable tragedy... esp considering how many thousands of wells have been drilled successfully (relatively speaking) all these years in the Gulf... Besides the obvious environmental disaster that continues to manifest, the ripple effect is bound to hinder all services activity related to the oil field in time... as mentioned Friday in "Halt in Gulf Drilling Begins, Raises Concerns"...

LOL, as for Bob Herbert, I read him often in Courier - one day I'm nodding along in total agreement with a hearty "right-on"... the next, I'm ready to try the "junk-shot" technique on him, lol...

Good Sunday to yas,
BBL...


Oil Spill Protest in Jackson Square Sunday May 30, 2010


After 'top kill' fails, a dispiriting summer of oil, anger is ahead for Louisiana
By The Associated Press
May 30, 2010, 4:47PM


There is still a hole in the Earth, crude oil is still spewing from it and there is still, excruciatingly, no end in sight. After trying and trying again, one of the world's largest corporations, backed and pushed by the world's most powerful government, can't stop the runaway gusher.

As desperation grows and ecological misery spreads, the operative word on the ground now is, incredibly, August -- the earliest moment that a real resolution could be at hand. And even then, there's no guarantee of success. For the United States and the people of its beleaguered Louisiana Gulf Coast, a dispiriting summer of oil and anger lies dead ahead.

Oh ... and the Atlantic hurricane season begins Tuesday.

The latest attempt -- using a remote robotic arm to stuff golf balls and assorted debris into the gash in the seafloor -- didn't work. On Sunday, as churches echoed with prayers for a solution, BP said it would focus on containment rather than plugging the undersea puncture wound, effectively redirecting the mess it made rather than stopping it.

"We failed to wrestle this beast to the ground," said BP Managing Director Bob Dudley, doing the rounds of the Sunday talk shows.

Trouble is, the longer it lasts, the more beasts emerge ready to wrestle. Crude oil-coated birds are becoming a frequent sight along coastal areas. At the sea's bottom, no one knows what the oil will do to species like the newly discovered bottom-dwelling pancake batfish -- and others that remain unknown but just as threatened.

40 days and 40 nights

Perhaps most alarming of all, 40 days and 40 nights after the Deepwater Horizon blew up and began the underwater deluge, hurricane season is at hand. It brings the horrifying possibility of wind-whipped, oil-soaked waves and water spinning ashore and coating areas much further inland. Imagine Katrina plus oil spill.

On its own, the spill is already the worst in American history -- worse, even, than the 1989 Exxon Valdez disaster. It has released between 18 million and 40 million gallons of oil into the Gulf, according to government estimates that are, like all numbers involved in this brouhaha, subject to vigorous debate.

The trepidation is less disputed. "This is probably the biggest environmental disaster we've ever faced in this country," White House energy and climate change adviser Carol Browner said on NBC's "Meet the Press."

At some point -- the widespread debut of the BP "spillcam" is as good a delineation point as any -- this tipped, in the national conversation, from a destructive event into a calamitous, open-ended saga. And for the bruised and cantankerous American psyche, it could not come at a worse time.

Fear is everywhere

Fear is afoot everywhere, and polarization prevails. Faith in institutions -- corporations, government, the media -- is down. Americans are angry, and they long ago grew accustomed to expecting the resolution of problems in very short order, even if reality rarely works that way.

So when something undefined and uncontrollable happens, they speculate in all the modern forums about collusion and nefarious dealings. In the process, this tale of environmental disaster and economic damage cripples the sea-to-shining-sea narrative that usually offers Americans comfort during uncertain times.

"There are people who are getting desperate, and there are more getting anxious as we get further into the shrimping season and there is less chance they will recover," said the Rev. Theodore Turner, 57, at Mount Oliver Baptist Church in Boothville, near where oil first washed ashore. Fishermen make up about a third of his congregation.

With the "junk shot" and the "top kill" behind it, BP's next effort involves an assortment of undersea robot maneuvers that would redirect the oil up and out of the water it is poisoning. The decision effectively means that the notion of stopping the crude entirely is receding into the background for now.

The first step in BP's latest effort is the intricate removal of a damaged riser that brought oil to the surface of the Deepwater Horizon rig. The riser will be cut at the top of the crippled blowout preventer, creating a flat surface that a new containment valve can seal against.

The valve would force the oil into a new riser, bringing it up to a ship. The seal, however, would not prevent all oil from escaping. How much could still leak remains a subject of debate.

If the containment valve fails, there are other options. Next on BP's list: installing a new blowout preventer on top of the existing one.

Two long months

In the end, however, the only permanent solution is the drilling a relief well that would relieve the pressure on the runaway gusher in favor of a controlled pumping -- essentially what the Deepwater Horizon was trying to do in the first place. But that will take at least two months.

That's not just two months of dealing with the extensive damage done until now to oceans, beaches and marshlands. It's two months more of oil pouring outward and upward -- and two months more toward the heart of hurricane season and its potential to sow destruction.

Using government figures, if the leak continues at its current pace and is stopped on Aug. 1, 51 million to 106 million gallons will have spilled. If it stops Aug. 15, 58 million to 121 million gallons will have spilled. If it is not stopped until the end of August, that figure rises to 65.5 million gallons to 136.5 million gallons. That's quite a range of possibilities.

'We are dying a slow death here'

"They are going to destroy south Louisiana. We are dying a slow death here," said Billy Nungesser, president of Plaquemines Parish.

Coastal tent cities are about to rise to house the workers and contractors charged with fixing and minimizing the damage. Sand banks and barriers are being built. But the consensus around the Gulf Coast is turning more apoplectic and apocalyptic. This is, people are starting to say, a generational event -- tragic to this generation, potentially crippling to the next.

"The oil spill is part of prophecy," said Turner, the Louisiana minister. "The Bible prophesized hardships. If we believe the word of God is true -- and we do -- we also know that in addition to prophecying hardships he promised to take care of us."

As BP and the government chart the way forward, there remain prominently unanswered questions along the way.

How involved has the Obama administration been, how involved should it have been, and how much control should BP be given for events that are of public interest and happening in public places? Why have BP, scientists and the government been unable to accurately capture how much is actually leaking, the extent of damage and figure out how to fix it? And what can be done now to prevent even more of a disaster from unfolding, and to ensure transparency as decisive steps are taken to fix what's broken?

"I am resolute and confident that we will see a better day ahead of us," Interior Secretary Ken Salazar said Saturday. And yet that statement, stacked up against the word "August," tempers the optimism for many watching this saga unfold.

They see a dissembling corporation, an ineffective government and an ocean surface covered by a viscous shell with the consistency of molasses and the peril of poison. To them, it comes down to only this: There is still a hole in the Earth. Crude oil is still spewing from it. And there is still, excruciatingly, no end in sight.
Evening Doc,

Tonight I went over to a site I've known about but haven't checked through all this - marinetraffic.com

They have a self-updating vessle page that shows the collection of tankers, cargo ships, etc. out at the well site. You can see the bird's foot in the upper left hand corner, and adjust the page as necessary.
Note that they distinguish between vessels moored and underway - also useful. There's no way to know if they're doing something useful or just playing poker, but I'll give them the benefit of the doubt. If you click on the vessel it gives you speed, heading, vessel details, etc.
Here's the link for a litle farther west showing folks in for the night, I presume - Terrebonne Bay and such.

There's been rain around the past couple of evenings, but nothing here. I thought about it and decided your .26 wouldn't necessarily be enough to stop grass-cutting. On the other hand, if someone were looking for an excuse.... well, it just might do!

I was listening to the fishing show early this morning - some guys got more than a passel of sand trout last night. They were having a three-family fish fry this afternoon - 30 pounds of filets! With luck this LMRP will work well enough to divert a good percentage of the oil and they can get about finishing up that relief well. We need to get things cleaned up so you can get out there in your boat without worrying about all this foolishness. That's what I say.

I'm going to go watch all the pretty boats go in and out of the channels. Have a good evening or a good day, depending on when you pass by. ;-)

Mon May 31, Memorial Day greetings,

Not a pretty situation here, but in short term it's worse in Cen America with Agatha's flooding leading to over 100 deaths, many missing, and homes / businesses / infrastructure tore up badly... Major flooding issues there look to continue, with GFS showing perhaps another E Pac low / TC forming by late week, followed by another... At the least, the rainy monsoon trof pattern is stuck in place and problems will mount... along with high likelihood of seeing Cen Am targeted from Atlantic TS / hurricane strikes as season progresses...

***

G'day Pat and Shore!

Good article Pat, indeed "We are dying a slow death here"... Actually compared to most everywhere else in the USA or the world, the death of our culture, economy and ecological foundation is on an ever accelerating fast track that others can't begin to imagine... Yep, saw Dr John and crew interviewed at the protest rally echoing what most of us feel, but honestly, I fail to see what that's accomplishing at this point... 'Bout like our Save the Wetlands concerts or festivals, nice get-together / feel-good exercise but if "awareness" hasn't been raised clearly enough by now, it never will...

Thanks for the link, Shore... looks an interesting site although couldn't get that over-bloated google map to finish loading, or page came up blank... Probably incompatibility issue with my comp... Yeah, actually the rain was enough to curtail the grass cutting over weekend... that tall stuff too tough to try when wet with all but largest tractor, and if wasn't for the rain, the frequent lightning sure kept me away!

Good to hear the fishing report, and it's great here where away from da oil, esp school trout, reds as always... Unfortunate timing as most of large speckled trout are in initial phase spawning around the rigs and barrier islands / broken marsh island chains in the lower reaches... You betcha, cheering BP on for success with LMRP...

***

Okay, more ranting / venting due... might even have to play devil's advocate and show some love for... yep, even BP, or rather their overburdened workers...

Saw LSU's Prof Overton on the news pleading for more intensive skimmer operations... No sh*t bro, same thing I been hollering / screaming about for a week or two!!! It's very clear this country's govt and industry was and continues to be poorly prepared in dealing with a FUBAR disaster of such magnitude... Absolutely pathetic response on coordinating what's needed, with our "leaders" lacking the foresight, equip and manpower to get it done responsibly... Dammit, this is where the US govt needs step up instead of playing blame game or worrying about getting BP to sign off on something daily... Let BP / oil experts continue dealing with closing / containing the blow-out... Sure, we're all desperate, depressed and beyond frustrated to get the bleeding stopped, but we're sounding like a kid in a car starting a cross-country trip whining repeatedly "Are we there yet?" as we trash each failed attempt by BP... Sheesh...

The govt can't deal with a mile-deep well anyway, but they can address this - GET THE GODDAMN MILITARY AND EVERY SKIMMER COMPANY AND PRODUCT AVAILABLE INVOLVED IN CLEANING WHAT'S BEEN SPEWED AND HIT US ALREADY!!!
Ramp it up... TIME IS CRITICAL!!!


And, odd as may sound.. a word of thanks...
Despite the failures to gain control... I do want to salute the group of unheralded heroes working desperately in what has to be the most stressful job ever in history now for weeks - those ROV operators! For that matter, the engineers to laborers, all involved behind the scenes who have been belittled in the media, public - all of us - throughout this ordeal... I doubt any of these folks now involved caused the screw-up, but have been thrown into the tedious position as the Fixers... So a BIG Thanks to you folks in your efforts, as know the mounting frustrations of failure encountered has to be taking a hard toll on them... Hell, many of us if put under such duress would have been eating cyanide pills like they were M&M's after...

Much as they are guilty of reaping what they've sown, I even feel some sympathy for those execs facing the reporters / govt officials every hour of the day, Tony Hayward and Doug Suttles... A bloody mess chaps, but keep the chin up and let's continue to resolve this... Nope, not for all the money they may (or may not) have now, I'd rather be me with what little I have, than spend a minute in their shoes... May seem a stretch since we assume they're heartless bastards, but if we grant them a smidgen of conscience - deep inside the guilt, regret and torment has GOT to be intense...

Misery has plenty of company these days...
*Sigh*

Hey Doc!!

Long time no talk. So sorry about what you are going through in Louisiana. It is so very sad. Being the outdoor lover that I am, I just get depressed every time I think about this disaster which was caused by people who have no time to think about anything or anyone else but their money. Hoping and praying are the only things we can do for now. An entire ecosystem is at risk of being killed by greed. I guess it's only a matter of time before it makes it to our coastline...then Alabama's...then Florida's...then the Texas coastline. Ugh. I just hope it stops soon.

Hey, at least this hurricane season looks to be a blast! :-/
236. code1
Misery has plenty of company. Please forgive the quote Doc without italics and spelling. On phone only, & I ain't competent with touch. Lol. Hate seeing LA's issuses now& dread the sister states fall out as well. Saw the LaF pres this morn in tv. She wants oil, but understands now. I've lived in the coalfields, it's damned if you do, and damned if you don't!
Doc, now more than any cane time, we need to pay homage. Get the ingredients, & I'll even brave da swps and Marie. Just will watch for what is demanded for sacrifice. No human or dog/cat bones have I. Chicken and goat bones, fearhers I can offer her!
My heart bleeds with yours m'friend.
Finn walks into Doc's house, exchanges a Coke from da fridge to a cocktail plate covered with Saran wrap. Then she leaves in silence and with an aching heart leaves a note on the table that says: "Hugs & FELIX canapes for you my friend"
Double Kiss
Morning, Doc,

Agreement here with your points re: the engineers and ROV operators and such who are doing such terrific work in horrible circumstances. Here and there I see them getting some acknowledgement on tech boards and in chat rooms, if not in the press (apparently known as MSM now).

I didn't mean to spend a chunk of yesterday watching those little guys, but after I found some live commentary to go along with their activity, I did. I've been amazed by the similarity with space work from the beginning - it's obvious, but still just astounding. Not only that, Oceaneering, whose ROVs are working this, do provide a good bit of equipment for NASA.

What's tickled me is seeing that the hard-boiled oil field sorts watching in the chatrooms anthropomorphize these things the same way I do. When one of the ROVs was trying to do something yesterday, there were murmurs of "Come on, little guy - you can do it!" and such other encouragements. And when he dropped something, there were comments like "That's ok - you'll get it next time", and descriptions like, "Overcome with shame, ROV stares dejectedly into space..."

No matter how big or technological the disaster, we want to connect, I guess. It's just a damn shame that BP and the government can't seem to connect with the people who are suffering because of this.

Well, it's a new month and a new day, and that latest attempt hasn't failed yet. Prayers for the exhausted ROV operators and a virtual hug for you and your neighbors. We'll get through this yet.
Good reads here - all echoing my sentiments
I'm a bit wordless this morning
so I'll ditto Shore's closing remarks - seems to be the best thing I read all morning.

"Well, it's a new month and a new day, and that latest attempt hasn't failed yet. Prayers for the exhausted ROV operators and a virtual hug for you and your neighbors. We'll get through this yet."
>
Quoting LakeWorthFinn:
Finn walks into Doc's house, exchanges a Coke from da fridge to a cocktail plate covered with Saran wrap. Then she leaves in silence and with an aching heart leaves a note on the table that says: "Hugs & FELIX canapes for you my friend"
Double Kiss


Huri wunders in stumbling a bit from the fuzzy head of time travel. I wish Finn had left another coke. One never wants a coke more than when there is none in the house. Okay, let's turn on the water faucet. On wait a minute, I mean let's hit the pump a few times...ah water. nothing like it. There's a plate of something with saran wrap on it. Oh I just don't like that saran wrap, always cuts my fingers pulling it off the roll.
Hi Doc,
Was just at Foxxy's and I blew my top over the inadequate environmental protection... so I won't say anything more.

Joins huri in a drink of whatever that is she's having.
LOL girls!
Finn bursts in, out of breath, carrying two 12-packs of cokes and three cases of beer. Lessee, gotta make some room in da fridge now... What??? Doc has crayfish on the upper shelf, Yummiieeeee!!! And still enough Felix canapes for an army... huri, this Saran wrap won't hurt you :) Come back, lets wock!
There they go again, those humans... eating our Felix pate.

catsinsinks


ROTFLMAO!!!

Dang, I oughta check my blog sometimes... missed the party again! Yes, drink up, feast well... for all we know, there may be no tomorrow! Welcome to SE LA where DISASTROUS CHANGE is our one constant companion to be counted on in our journey thru life... A few laughs, comaraderie and hugs thru the suffering always helpful!

Thanks for the greetings, info (and fun) all - MS WX, Code, Finn, Shore, SurfMom, Huri and Barefoot!

MS WX and Code - Yep, knew a short matter of time before MS, AL, FL coasts got a drenching of it too...
Hurricane season? Not sure I'm buying the hyper-season hype just yet, but certain will be active at least on the order of the post-'95 averages...

Saw CSU updated outlook to 18-10-5 this morn... Read and weep... They also added an interactive landfall probabilities site of their best guesstimate... For Region 3 (from S Cen La to far NW FL) near 80% for named storm, over 50% for hurricane, and 30% for major hitting us... Almost double climatology values...

Code, Marie Laveau said chicken is fine but too generic... that human sacrifice could be more effective, esp if we deliver some top-tier BP execs! So much for my brief sympathy extended to 'em - Sorta felt like Tom Arnold's character in "True Lies" when listening in on fake spy "Simon" hustling "Harry's" wife as he said, "I'm starting to admire this guy", followed by burning glare from "Harry" and continues on saying, "but I mean, we still gotta kill him, that's a given!" LOL...

Shore,
Sure is addictive watching the effort, eh?
God help 'em, what a mess... Have a very close friend who works for Oceaneering, more in the office now, but used to operate the ROV's... Also had worked on the Deepwater Horizon a couple years ago... Small world, for that matter as have another old friend out-of-state who's worked for BP around the world for nearly 30 years, one of the knowledgable good guys who I know is shell-shocked with this disaster...

Finn, thanks sweety!
The Felix canapes were excellent for breakfast too! Went well with my Community brand Cafe Special med-dark roast coffee... ;)

Huri, sorry had no Coke for ya... Pepsi?
Ahh, Finn rectified the shortage... Apologies on only having crawfish - my shrimp, crabs, oysters, speckled trout fillet supply is limited... :(

Barefoot,
Let the enviro-response rants rip, ya know I've been cussin' enough to scare off a sailor lately...
LOL, now there's another blast from the past that brings a smile, da "cats-in-sinks"!

Thanks again, m'friends!

***

Shwrs / tstms started early today... LOL, another quarter inch amt appears... Yes, Atlantic tropical season began yesterday with the Agatha remnant firing up enough to remind us it's here... Nice to see the shearing westerlies still in place over Gulf / same near 20N subtropical jet flowing as been for months, albeit diminishing slowly... Pattern change inevitable perhaps by late next week, but nothing appearing on horizon for us as we watch active E Pac - Cen Am monsoon trof / convergent zone... where we'll keep eye on W Carib too... What looks like a more favorable / lower shear set-up coming might just as well be a deep layered ridge with broad region dry, subsident air - just as unfavorable for TC's (except below it in Carib), but plenty of Summer heat under it! (Sheeesh, had enough mid-90's already!)... Beyond that, GFS has shown several options for inhibiting upper shear to return over S Gulf... Thru mid-June looks okay for N Gulf coast ATT... Also noting GFS shows the Azores High building widely next couple weeks (as typically does in June) over the entire basin, increasing trades, reaching 1034 mb or so, and might contribute to SAL episodes in time over the east MDR...

Had a freak event yesterday - a tractor battery exploded as loud as a shotgun! Lucky no serious damage to me or machinery, as didn't fly apart just the caps blew off and found the top case cracked... May have let water / electrolyte level get too low, allowing gas build up... read of others w same, a familiar theme among many - stopped vehicle (car, boat, machinery, etc) briefly for a few minutes, then blew when hit the key to restart... Scary sh*t, guess those battery warnings / precautions are valid, lol (and will pay closer attention to electrolyte level!)...

Off to buy another...
Good day to yas...
Later!
Gosh we almost had a good party last night.
The olde characters almost intersected.

Doc, this LA thing...this Gulf thing has me mighty mad. Not mad at any particular person group of people as I don't think anyone would do such a thing intentionally. And, I can forgive incompetence of persons as I would hope I would be forgiven. I just don't know what to make of it other than it is a terrible thing and I want it to stop.

I come from a long line of sea captains. I remember stories about my Uncle having to come down to LA to do some work in getting oysters, I assumed, but maybe shrimp and other things. The fishermen from the ChesBay I know count on coming down there for work certain times of the year or if conditions aren't right up here. I suppose there is lots of work to be had there but of a different kind now.

Anyway, I meant to come here and post something cheerful. I'm hoping my friends will come up behind me and help that to be so.
I'm right behind Huri waiving "DITTO" - and bringing Chateu Neuf De Pape for the wine cellar... may be some long nights ahead and in any case m'friend who buries her peek in da sand can pour herself a glass when she pulls her bald head up to ask you what's spinnin'... lmao

The 3 Wild Bunch visits were just a prelude to the future blob-watching parties that we will have along the season :)

OUCH for the CSU updated outlook and the interactive landfall probabilities - looking gloomy for us here too!
G'day Thu June 3rd,

Hiya Huri and Finn,
Always brings me cheer when I see your posts, ladies!
Well, it's a given there won't be any reason for seasonal fishermen coming to GOM region unless they wanna trawl with skimmers to scoop oil this Summer, with over a third of the Gulf closed to fishing (and growing)... Pass de bottle dis way, cher... ;)

***

Sheeeesh, what a mess with the LMRP op, had to mangle the riser off with shears after diamond saw hung, but not as bad as thought would look... We'll see if they can get a fit over it later...

***

Increased shwrs / tstms over N Gulf states today with low feature over TX enhancing activity, expected to continue next couple days before hot, mostly dry ridging sets up over us by late weekend into next week... Only had .29" at my house yesterday, but above in Gray we recorded a healthy 2.45" amt... at least the trees got a good watering and noted ground cracks closing... More rain coming down (very hard!) as I write, with large NW to SE line shwrs / embedded tstms lifting up over SE LA...

Tropical trouble in GOM by mid-June?
Okay, with grain of salt, usual caveats and such...
Sure did NOT like what saw with today's GFS 06Z cycle run long range projection... As usual, comparing previous cycles at such distance in the future varies wildly inconsistent with each run, so we'll just have to see what pans out... Yeah, we still look okay up till near June 15, but could have a TC brewing in W Carib by then that could lift toward the Gulf region... You can click thru starting around 10 day mark, or 240 hrs, really gets interesting around 336 hrs as it wraps up, gets more defined as migrates into the Gulf... That 06Z run shows not just a mere tropical low, but something I've been concerned with watching that persistent monsoon trof over Cen Am - if that broad pattern lifted NWD in time once upper level winds relaxed above...

I wish had the upper air depictions from Sep '98 that led to formation of TS Frances, but to best of my estimation viewing the charts, what the 06Z GFS showed is the chance for a monsoon depression event - a very broad area of cyclonic circulation from sfc to mid levels with an embedded central low / TC (or as with Frances, number of reformations of sfc LLC within the gyre)... The cyclogenesis of the system initially would be similar in effect to a subtropical storm or gale center with high winds spread far from center over the region... Now THAT would really disperse oil concentrations... which we KNOW will happen in time, one storm or the other as we go thru Summer... Right now, it's just one possibility, one cycle run of what we could see by then, and as such may never occur, although have seen a few hints from previous cycles showing "something" once we get to mid-month, into 3rd week... In past few years off / on the GFS has played out formation of such a system with it's long range outlooks but none have actually occurred, formed in this manner since TS Frances - only mentioning this 06Z GFS speculation in detail here since it IS an oddity (might save a couple frames just for an idealized reference of upper pattern evolution for such a system)... To update, the 12Z shows nothing to that extent (maintains a stronger mid level subtropical ridge over us, generally), but does hint once again for an ELY wave, tropical disturbance or TC lifting off W Carib / Cen Am into BOC moving NW at later end of run... Probably won't have any better idea on near-term TC chances in GOM till we get into the model runs a week from now...

Oil well, that's how it goes... ;)
SOB!!!!!

I JUST POSTED A LONG AND THOUGHTFUL POST and it vanished...


Hiya Doc..seems the cap is coming down to the BOP now..

Were hoping for a miracle today.

Live Feed CNN

Looks like moments ago our robots got the excess piece of bent riser sawed off. Cap being lowered, looks like.

Cross your fingers and wish on a White Horse!

Add: If this is true, could be another day before they try to seat that containment cap.
Hello Doc
my Leo/Snake/Bro


I see my fellow "wild bunch" gal pals have been around to bring you some cheer and keep the fridge full.

leave it to those party animals and body part providers to help any way they can.

Hello my friends! Wish I had gotten here sooner.





Oh Doc, not going to rant, I have already ranted on two other blogs this morning.

but geeze, where is common sense?
OH yes, I forgot, that became politically incorrect in recent years...

Anyone can see, you need to immediately get out there and start cleaning up the oil
that is already on the surface, the easy to get to oil....

sweep it up on ships.. and I mean
A WHOLE LOTTA SHIPS and get it cleaned up.

We can clean streets with street sweeper machines,
I will just bet we have ships that can
skim oil and grease off the surface of the GOM..

At least it would be doing something helpful while they are still trying to stop the
gusher that keeps on flowing.


it would be something to hang our hat on....

oh boy oh boy oh boy.. what a mess...
wish we could see some real effort being done in the cleanup...

I am rambling now so will leave...

hugs to you....

Gams
Your Leo/Snake/Sis

oH I see BF and Pat posted some information..

keeping our fingers crossed...
Hiya Gams, Pat and Barefoot,

Yep, been watching it on CNN and the Oil Drum... between other things...

Made the mistake of reading some comments on another blog earlier... guess knew it was a (short) matter of time before reading knee-jerk idiotic remarks suggesting a sorta War between the Gulf states over this spill... tsk, tsk, so it goes...

Well, I hate to see the oil spread over other areas of our region too... If anyone hasn't kept abreast, here's a (partial) list of impacts that have hit LA's coast / wetlands since May 25 forward - only the last 9 days, after we'd been impacted since 1st week of May - compiled from Emergency Louisiana.gov (corrected an obvious mistake or two, mostly copied / pasted)... Not shown here are those impacts that got steadily worse during 2nd, 3rd week May in our interior bays and wetlands (some listed in previous articles on the site)... Today's report will be out in a few hrs...

Of course since LA supports Gulf drilling, I'm sure in the eyes of some, we got what we deserved from it...

Report on Oil Sightings throughout Coastal Louisiana
(from http://www.emergency.louisiana.gov)

BATON ROUGE - The below is a situational awareness report of oil impacted areas led by the Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries, the Louisiana Army National Guard and local governments.

Note: The information in this report has been forwarded to the federal incident command post in Houma, which is composed of U.S. Coast Guard and BP officials. This report consists of newly impacted areas, and does not serve as a comprehensive listing of impacted areas.

OIL SIGHTINGS REPORT
Reports on May 26 2010 -

St. Bernard Parish:
Sighting: Southern end of Chandelier Islands
Date: 25 May 10

Sighting: Breton Sound
Date: 25 May 10

Plaquemines Parish:
Sighting: 100 foot oil sheen sighted in Bayou Norman at the entrance of Spoonbill Bay - confined to the bayou.
Date: 26 May 10

Sighting: Oil sighted at Lake Washington at Barataria Bay
Date: 25 May 10

Lafourche Parish:
Sighting: Thick oil reported at buoy #2 at Belle Pass. Approximately 200-300 yards long by 100 yards wide
Date: 25 May 10

Sighting: Tar balls are being sighted as far north as Port Fourchon
Date: 25 May 10

Terrebonne Parish:
Sighting: Timbalier Island is 100% impacted on the Gulf side, 40 % on the bay side.
Date: 26 May 10

Sighting: Oil reaching into the marsh near the mouth of the Houma Navigational Canal.
Date: 25 May 10

Sighting: Oil sighted, Timbalier Island
Date: 25 May 10

Sighting: 10-12 feet of marsh impacted by oil in Lake Chene in Barataria Island
Date: 25 May 10

***

Reports on May 27 2010 -

St. Bernard Parish:
Sighting: Heavy oil and sheen located in three locations three to six miles southwest of Curlew Islands.
Date: 27 May 10

Sighting: Foamy substance with oil in it.
Date: 27 May 10

Plaquemines:
Sighting: Oil spotted in the south pass to Pass A Loutre area.
Date: 27 May 10

Sighting: Black oil between Rosue Can and Old Light House on Pass A
Loutre area.
Date: 27 May 10

Terrebonne Parish:
Sighting: Oil reported with minimal impact off the shore of a small marsh island in St. Elaine Bay near the Bodwin cutoff.
Date: 27 May 10

Sighting: Thin line of oil headed toward Black Bay from the mouth of Cat Pass.
Date: 27 May 10

Sighting: Thick oil in Whiskey Pass.
Date: 27 May 10

Sighting: Emulsified oil with a rainbow sheen running north to south off the SW shore of Timbalier Island.
Date: 27 May 10

Sighting: Eight to ten inch masses of floating oil off the north coast of Queen Bess Island.
Date: 27 May 10

Sighting: Emulsified oil sighted in Wine Island Pass.
Date: 27 May 10


***

Reports on May 28 2010 -

Jefferson Parish:
Sighting: Bayou-wide sheen in Bayou St. Denis near the Barataria Bay Waterway.
Date: 28 May 10

Sighting: 200'x 500'' sheen patch with ribbons of sheen extending off the patch on the western side of Three Bayou Bay.
Date: 28 May 10

Sighting: Ribbons of sheen approximately one mile long and 10-30 feet wide throughout Little Lake.
Date: 28 May 10

Terrebonne Parish:
Sighting: Four mile sheen in Cat Island Pass with impacted marsh in the Seabreeze Pass near Bayou Jose.
Date: 28 May 10


***

Reports on May 29 2010 -

Plaquemines Parish:
Sighting: Sheen patches throughout Wilkinson Bay, SW area.
Date: 29 May 10.

Sighting: Light grey sheen with small tar balls 15-20 miles south of Barataria Bay.
Date: 29 May 10.

Sighting: Boom with black recoverable oil on a small island south of Bird Island in Cat Bay.
Date: 29 May 10.

Jefferson Parish:
Sighting: Rip line of sheen and emulsified oil running north and south two miles north east of Barataria Pass.
Date: 28 May 10.

Lafourche Parish:
Sighting: Grey sheen and tar balls at the mouth of Coup Abel Pass on East Grand Terre side of the pass.
Date: 29 May 10.

Sighting: Sheen patches approximately 100 yards in diameter on western end of Little Lake in Bay L'Ours.
Date: 29 May 10.

Sighting: Heavy oil mixed with organic matter located in two inlets of Grand Isle, approximately 3.75 miles northeast of Pass Fourchon.
Date: 29 May 10.


***

Reports on May 30 2010 -


Iberia Parish:
Sighting: Approximately two or three small patches of oil found on the southern shore of Marsh Island.
Date: 30 May 10.

Lafourche Parish:
Sighting: Traces of oil and saturated sorbent boom on an island south of Fricot Bayou.
Date: 30 May 10.

Plaquemines:
Sighting: Grey sheen of ribbons with oil droplets in Wilkinson Bayou.
Date: 30 May 10.

Terrebonne Parish:
Sighting: Light oil sheen with tar balls in a bayou south of Lake Tambour. The oil is pushing through the bayou from Lake Tambour and covers the bayou entirely.
Date: 29 May 10.

***

Reports on May 31 2010 -

Jefferson Parish:
Sighting: Grey sheen on bay side of Camanida bridge.
Date: 31 May 10.


Sighting: Sheen with tar balls near Camanida Pass.
Date: 31 May 10.


Sighting: Oil slick with tar patties floating in it mile south east of Elmer Island.
Date: 31 May 10.

Lafourche Parish:
Sighting: Grey sheen with sparse quarter-size tar balls in the mouth of Belle Pass.
Date: 31 May 10.


Sighting: Rainbow sheen with tar patties floating in Pass Fourchon.
Date: 31 May 10.


Sighting: Ribbons of light sheen coming from Little Lake into Grand Bayou Blue with 150 feet of metallic sheen three miles north in Grand Bayou Blue.
Date: 31 May 10.

***

Reports on June 1 2010 -

Plaquemines Parish:
Sighting: Oil found in two locations at the mouth of the Mississippi River.
Date: 1 Jun 10.

Jefferson Parish:
Sighting: Tar balls and sheen were seen just off of Grand Isle beach.
Date: 1 Jun 10.

Sighting: 20 tar patties were reported on the southern beach of Grand Isle, approximately 1.75 miles from the northern tip.
Date: 1 Jun 10.

Sighting: Boat captain sighted a large amount of dead jellyfish within a light sheen about 2 miles southeast Isle Grande Terre.
Date: 1 Jun 10.

Terrebonne Parish:
Sighting: An extremely light, metallic sheen was observed throughout the entire Houma Navigational Canal from Cocodrie to Dulac.
Date: 1 Jun 10.

***

Reports on June 2 2010 -

Plaquemines Parish:
Sighting: Oil found on mangrove trees in the canals of East Grand Terre near the Grand Bank Bayou area.
Date: 2 Jun 10.

Sighting: Tar balls found scattered in a rip line made up of mostly trash in the south west inlet of Wilkinson Bay.
Date: 2 Jun 10.

Sighting: Boom is washing up on an unnamed island at Grand Island Port in Barataria Bay. There is no oil in the grass but not in the water.
Date: 2 Jun 10.

Sighting: Tar balls found scattered in a rip line at the southern end of Lake Grand Ecaille.
Date: 2 Jun 10.

Sighting: Oil sheen approximately 40 yards wide by two miles long just outside Baptiste Collet.
Date: 2 Jun 10.

Sighting: Blackish oil slick with some red/brown and foamy areas 4.5 miles east of the Southwest Pass Lighthouse.
Date: 2 Jun 10.

Jefferson Parish:
Sighting: Ribbon of sheen with surface foam in Bay Dosgris off of Little Lake.
Date: 2 Jun 10.

Sighting: Grey sheen running approximately mile south down the Barataria Waterway.
Date: 2 Jun 10.

Sighting: Rip line with grey sheen extending approximately 300 yards south of the mouth of Bayou St. Denis in the Barataria Bay Waterway.
Date: 2 Jun 10.

Sighting: Oil found on the mangrove trees in the canals of East Grand Terre at the north east side of Little Bayou Chevreau.
Date: 2 Jun 10.

Sighting: Thick oil found in grass on an island one mile south of Manilla Village.
Date: 2 Jun 10.

Sighting: Small area of grey sheen in north east corner of Hackberry Bay.
Date: 2 Jun 10.

Terrebonne Parish:
Sighting: Light and intermittent oil, brown in color, one mile south of Trinity Island.
Date: 2 Jun 10

***

Y'all have a good day...




Hi DocNDswamp,

I'm sure in the eyes of some, we got what we deserved from it...

On my way to P.O. to mail a birthday card but, hey, I had to stop and say...
NO WAY Louisiana deserves this, Doc. Not the people, not the environment, not the fish and wildlife. No f'n way. (Please excuse my French. On certain occasions, there's only one word that works.)
Hey I'm on my way to the deck for some after work refreshment, and to feed and water da boids, but I have to stop in and say:

I speak French too.
No f'nway!

Oh, Doc ~ I read that too, and I had to ban myself from the blogs for a day before I got myself banned for sure for about a half dozen offenses. I wrote and rewrote a reply, and by the time I was done I thought... uh.... no, better not.

In the first place, Deepwater Horizon was federally permitted. In the second place, the cost-cutting pressure and disregard for safety was, if not all BP's responsibility, equally shared among two or three companies and not at all in the control of the people of Louisiana.

In the third place, Louisiana has taken the hardest hit from this to date - in terms of your fishing industry, damage to your coastline and wetlands, and now the shutting down of the oil industry. I already have called my senators and representative and told them my feelings: do whatever inspections and re-permitting you need to do, but don't further damage both Louisisana and the country by shutting down every source of income in that state.

Now. There's one other thing, and it's nagged at me from the beginning. I live in a beach state, too, and I've seen oil come ashore on Texas beaches. You can clean a beach. You can supplement a beach. You can replenish a beach. It's been done here.

I understand that MS, AL and FL have beautiful beaches that are critical to their economy as well, but when the wetlands are gone, they're gone. The grasses die, the dirt flows away, the land subsides, the natural hurricane protection erodes and the next thing you know you're buying beachfront property in Morgan City. Of course, I don't need to tell you that.

There are no good choices in this. But NIMBY isn't going to cut it with me. While the politicians and bureaucrats and assorted oil execs are running around covering their collective behinds, we're the ones who are going to have to make some hard decisions to save the Gulf and our coast. We haven't been faced with many hard decisions, most of us - and many of us aren't used to that strange, old-fashioned concept called the common good. But we had better start thinking about it or we're going to face some consequences that people hardly can bring themselves to speak out loud - even though there are indications some are thinking about them.

There. That's almost Doc-worthy. Maybe I should make a run over to BP/Houston while I've got my dander up. They arrested a guy over there a couple of days ago. I'll bet I could get myself arrested. Except... there'd be no one to cook dinner for Mom. Look at that - sixty-three and my mother still is keeping me in line! ROFL
Huri jumps up from her lounge chair, hands held high over her head and clapping so hard that bunions might be created on her thumb joints.

Here Here Shore!
P. S. Off for some spaghetti and salad.
Thanks and (((hugs))) Barefoot, Huri and Shore!

LOL, yes I've been speaking that form of French way too abundantly of late... Those who think they're upset now where they're at, haven't endured thru 5 weeks of this onslaught at "ground zero" like we have... and why I thought I'd serve up those reports for a reminder of just the past 9 days...

Shore, yes I read your appropriate response and the excellent one by "theshepard" there... before I clicked outta there steaming and incensed over the stupidity! No way was I gonna drag myself further down, wasting time responding to the utopian green-dreamers living a lie despite whatever concessions they believe they've made... Let 'em walk the talk of their so-called proclaimed convictions - strictly use wind / solar / batteries / alternative fuels only, give up EVERYTHING related to petroleum derived products, starting with their hydrocarbon keyboards! And I'm sick and tired of hearing excuses of Big Oil blocking alternative developments - if it was practical either in sufficient quantities or competitively priced it would become widely available... If can stand on it's own, shouldn't need massive govt incentives / or redirected funding to keep it afloat, much less viable as needs be...

All your comments above - clearly stated, well said!
Spoken by one who has a firm grip on reality, thank you! AND as a writer in full command of the English language didn't have to resort to any "hard-core French" conveying the message, unlike moi... LOL...

Gotta run a bit,
BBL...
Hi DocNDswamp,
OK. I promise I'll be good. No more French.
:)
Impossible for me not to appreciate the depth of this tragedy and recognize the slow death now threatening south Louisiana.

Bobby Jindal, at his press conference today, said LA produces about one-third of this country's seafood AND one-third of our domestic oil. Huge. And a delicate balance to maintain.

I'd like to think anyone who's out to fight with Louisiana must be missing a few facts, shall we say. Might as well blame Transocean's experienced toolpusher who apparently couldn't convince BP not to take shortcuts on this well. He was on the drilling floor, tried to shut the well, and died trying. Illogical to blame a society of hard-working people for its desire to make a decent living in a world that demands oil.

Thanks, shore.
Great post. Perfect point. A Federal oil lease.

One point I wanted to add, and please correct me if I'm wrong, Doc... If my memory serves me right, Louisiana does not pocket an off-the-top cut for every barrel that flows from those offshore wells the way Alaska does from its Prudhoe Bay oil.

shore, you expressed a thought that has been on my mind. Oil on sandy beaches, not likely to be as damaging in the long term as the ecological disaster unfolding in the marshlands and estuaries of Louisiana. Other Gulf states will likely experience estuarial invasion. Some of this may be already unfolding. Depending on how this shakes out, economy and ecology in MS, AL and FL may be hit hard as well.

ECF,
Trade you a burrito for some spaghetti. What do you say? Please, please.
This is a terrible tragedy, even Felix and Chateau Neuf de P. won't help - unless you eat and drink so much you'll puke, pass out and the next day's head ache is so bad you can't even think.

And no one really knows how much oil there is under the surface. I think this is a time for solidarity, not blame. Blaming people, places or things has never brought happiness to anybody.
Doc, will you shuuu the snakes away and put a mattress on the floor for me if I come to help wash oil off the coast and poor birds?
Louisiana deserves answers, Mr. President: An editorial



By Editorial page staff, The Times-Picayune
June 04, 2010, 7:10AM

Dear Mr. President:

As you visit us today for the third time since the Deepwater Horizon started gushing oil into the Gulf of Mexico, the people of Louisiana have questions that must be answered.

We're already reeling from the loss of thousands of fishing industry jobs. We now could see an estimated 20,000 oil-services jobs vanish due to your six-month federal moratorium on deepwater exploratory drilling. That could do even greater damage to the economy than the well-chronicled fishing industry losses.

Louisianians understand the imperative for improved safety on drilling rigs. The carelessness that caused the disaster, the fumbling response by industry and government, and the damage to our waters and our coast must never recur, here or elsewhere.

But we need to know what you are prepared to do to prevent catastrophic damage to our battered economy.

It is not clear, Mr. President, why it will take six months to determine what went wrong on Deepwater Horizon and how to remedy safety deficiencies. The joint hearing by the Coast Guard and the Minerals Management Service already has highlighted several existing tests and safety procedures that might have prevented the blowout. There have already been nearly a dozen oil spill-related hearings on Capitol Hill.

In announcing the mission of the White House oil spill commission this week, you said, "We owe all those who've been harmed, as well as future generations, a full and vigorous accounting of the events that led to what has become the worst oil spill in U.S. history." Fair enough, but the commission's work must be focused and efficient. And the panel ought to include a resident of Louisiana, with firsthand knowledge of our economy.

We also need to know, Mr. President, whether you support legislation to give Gulf states our rightful share of offshore oil revenues now instead of in 2017. These are vital resources for our imperiled coast. During your visit last week, you did not publicly take questions from Louisianians. A local reporter's question about the revenue-sharing proposal earned a "we'll get back to you"-response from a White House spokesman. There was no followup.

Your visit is appreciated, Mr. President. But visiting Louisiana is not the same as listening to us and answering our questions.

When you were here on May 1 you talked about the possibility that the oil gushing from BP's well could "jeopardize the livelihoods of thousands of Americans who call this place home." It is doing exactly that. Now we need you to keep the damage from getting any worse.

Much has been written about American's loss of confidence in their government and about the disaster's collateral damage to your administration. But ultimately, the administration will be judged on what is within its power, including your ability to assess the physical and economic damage to our communities and to ease their suffering.
263. code1
Bravo Doc and Shore! Happy I missed the idiotic remarks of gulf coast states infighting? I don't speak French, but can cracker-billy speak to turn the air blue, and am now after reading back your comments of such lunacy. sheesh
The ENTIRE gulf coast already has been, or will be affected in one way or another. No other state has the wetlands coastal LA has. We have fragile coastal dune lakes here. Other states have their own fragility as well I'm sure.
Understand about the need to continue oil industry there. I lived in the coal fields. Ranted against the rape of the mountains to a point, but also understood it was the only way of life for long past and present, and most likely, future generations there. Damned if you do, and damned if you don't. HOWEVER, I still don't want drilling off our shores here. It's not something that our population would miss in the way of life, and now more than ever I will continue to fight it here. Again, I understand and sympathize with all that's lost, and will be. It's just all unfathomable to me what has and will continue to happen from simple greed. Keep a check on your blood pressure Doc. :-( Take care!

Sorry I missed the partay! Got the mail, but didn't even have my laptop with me last week.
Good morning Doc,

Not even going to pretent I speak "French" I just let fly "bad words" when I get pissed.


Very good point, I am not against trying to get oil and get it safely. It can be done but there is always the risk for accidents...so there needs to be viable "plans a & b".

and the hyprocrites that want no more "oil" to be produced at all...
when they give up their castle like "Mansions" around the world that uses more oil power than a small city,
and they start walking or riding a bike and give up their limos and big suvs..
then I may give them a glance and listen to them...
but as long they they all want YOU to make the sacrifies, not them..
hoooobbbboooy they are rich and far too good to be inconvienced for any of that stuff they want to push on everyone else.

Not to mention the economy.
There has to be a way to keep our beautiful Earth healthy and have energy to meet the needs of a growning economy.
No one wants to go backwards and become a 3rd world country....

I would glady use solar power for part of my needs if I could get it at a reasonable price. hopefully the next home I can get it.

Many of us actually do put our actions where our mouth is and try our best to help keep the world cleaner...but some of us do need a larger SUV or truck instead of a tiny vehicle. Some of us do enjoy a little A/C at night when trying to sleep in 85 degrees temps and 100% humidity...We do not want to give up that either...

I should probably go now before I get myself in trouble with many friends here.


Thinking of your area again today.






Shore, like Huri,,,
Big Old 'YOU GO GIRL' for you!

I will probably get killed for saying this but I would rather all that oil wash up on Ft Lauderdale beach if it would save the Louisianna Wetlands and the Florida Keys...
Ft Lauderdale beach is beautiful but we have no real "wet lands" here, not much anyway...and that sand we pump it in all the time so like you said it could be replaced...I would think it would be much easier to clean oil off a long strip of sandy beach without any thing growing on it than in wetlands.


like I said, I will probably get killed for that remark because yes, it would kill the SE Florida economy for a while.....but this could kill the wetland areas for ever...
LOL code and I were typing at the same time!
G'day Fri June 4,

Yep, as radar Pat provided shows, was a soggy train of rain lifting up... LOL, I've gotten my daily standard lately of quarter-third inch amt... might actually get more... rain interferring with Obama's latest visit.

Day 46 and the latest sombrero attempt hasn't done much to contain the flow yet, with the poor seal issues... I'm beyond mentioning any expectations.

Hiyas and Thanks Barefoot, Finn, Pat, Code and Gams!

Well, my ranting over another bloggers opinion probably wasn't productive, shouldn't have bothered with my fired-up response giving the remark "wings" here... Ridicule / ignorant stereotypes of Louisiana and it's residents seems an American tradition, some deserved, a lot not... And ya know damn well I criticize LA environmental issues a lot! But there seems to be an abundance of short-sighted stupidity being spewed since this disaster... LOL, I fully expect to see LA further slammed tonight with Bill Maher's comments to the effect of how stupid we must be, total gluttons for punishment, continuing to endorse future oil drilling after we've been drenched for weeks in it, much in the same vein as the blabbering heard already... As if we haven't learned some kind of lesson... Would be nice if the idealism of alternatives offered an equal, simplistic choice over realism of what's sensibly attainable... So be it...

As for oil ruining beaches and other estuaries along the Gulf coast, it's an equal tragedy wherever it strikes that makes me sad and upset, as those residents rightfully are... BUT, this monumental catastrophe was a human failure to follow established protocol / proper procedures long mandated and adhered to within the industry... The call to end Gulf drilling is reactionary grandstanding that makes as little sense as banning fire, since we know it can cause great destruction... or any other analogy one chooses of a useful but inherently dangerous resource when caution is ignored.

Hiya Barefoot,
Jindal is an effective speaker getting points across (outside of that uncharacteristically, rambling Obama SOU response that made him look silly)... Yep, some very good men died fighting the blow-out... As for LA's lack of royalties, that's a sore point with all residents going back to the late 40's / early 50's thanks to the greedy politician / heavy-handed dictator of Plaquemines Parish then, Leander Perez... as Jim Brown has highlighted several times, and repeated here...

Had the deal been done as should have, Louisiana would today be one of the most richest, self-reliant states in the US... from Brown's article, "The failure to take this settlement has cost Louisiana, by several studies, more than $500 billion (that's billon with a "b") in lost revenue." Brown's article further illustrates how the historical corruption / negligence from big business and politicians left this state in the pitiful conditions we're left with...

Hey Finn,
Yes, a bit more compassion, deeper understanding would be most helpful... I'll add more on the wildlife impact / oiled birds found yesterday in a bit, and appreciate the offer to help - but hang tight, FL's coastal birds / wildlife could be affected, needing help soon too...

Hi Pat,
Good editorial there... Yes sir, give us our royalties that the fed has fought against allocating fairly for decades after the blunder from 60 years ago...

Hello Code,
I hear ya... I know it's not completely simple just "wipe the oil off the beach" proposition either as the damage is far-reaching and complex where advances into passes / inlets of an ecosystem... Not sure how to respond to states objecting to drilling in offshore federal waters - without fanning the interstate war flames much more - other than suggest perhaps as a matter of equality those state's residents should pay higher prices for petroleum fuels / petro-based products, with the difference going to pay eco impacts in producing states... I would feel less inclined that way if we were getting our fair share of royaties for compensation... as ya said, damned if do / damned if don't... No easy solution...

Hiya Gams,
I'm hoping this mess gets diluted / dispersed enough in the Gulf that those projections of it coating FL's east coast never happens, but can only watch and prepare to deal with it... Good points all around, as most us grounded in reality and equally trying to be good stewards... LOL, after my comments, I'm waiting for someone to accuse me of being a shill for the oil companies... I fully support all forms of viable alternatives to source our energy needs...

***

Okay, no doubt many of you have seen this... this is the epitomy of UGLY graphically illustrated and symbolic of the disaster... The images of heavily oiled birds that came out yesterday were as horrifyingly gut-wrenching, sickening to be revealed yet... Shown on several sites and media like CNN, these are from The Boston Globe... CAUTION is strongly advised on viewing the following as these extremely sharp, detailed images will tug at your every emotion with pity for the suffering victims and outrage over the carelessness that caused it... Much like on WU and everywhere today, the comments posted show how paralyzingly polarized we are over difficult issues...

June 3, 2010
Caught in the oil
A short entry - AP Photographer Charlie Riedel just filed the following images of seabirds caught in the oil slick on a beach on Louisiana's East Grand Terre Island. As BP engineers continue their efforts to cap the underwater flow of oil, landfall is becoming more frequent, and the effects more evident. (8 photos total)


Evening, Doc,

Well, I for one am glad you responded as you did. Dealing with this situation is a little different than your usual engineering problem. Even the heavy hitters on sites like The Oil Drum are having a hard time figuring out how to balance their emotional responses with the needs of practical problem solving. With something this big, sometimes it's worth letting things vent a bit so we can move on to more rational consideration of the problem.

For clarity, I should add that my argument isn't so much beach vs marsh as irreplaceable vs renewable.If the oil gets to Florida's coral reefs, I'd say the same thing - losing the reefs is worse than losing the beaches.

Even here in Texas we have an analogous situation - we have our beaches, but we also have The Flower Gardens. So far so good for them, but given their location 100 miles offshore, there's just no telling whether they'll be affected or not. And I'd shovel a good bit of sand to save the Flower Gardens.

One more thought re: any drilling ban. This country as a whole is not able to sustain such a decision economically. Even assuming the political will to make a transition to alternate forms of energy, the operative word is "transition". Anyone who imagines shutting down the oil industry would set us immediately on the path to utopia has a pretty vivid imagination.

We're all invested in oil, every one of us. Anyone who's in the stock market, participates in a 401K, has a pension fund or puts money in a bank had better pray that the economy holds, and oil and gas are an important part of that holding action.

If the Gulf gets shut down, it won't hurt BP one iota. They're worldwide and capitalized to the hilt. But start counting, for example, the number of jobs that would be lost in a flash. Goodbye, 9.7% unemployment (or 17%, depending). The Great Depression would look like a picnic.

There's a wonderful quotation from the naturalist John Muir - "pull on anything in nature, and you'll find it attached to everything else". The same thing holds true for economic systems. If this one collapses we'll all go down together, no matter how pure our energy convictions.

Now, on the "good" side of the ledger, I managed to finish a varnish job today, got a new blog up and now it's raining a bit! Hoorah! Time for a nice iced tea to cool me down, and a little blog reading to rev me right up ;-)
Linda - here is an article about the jobs
at risk with new drilling restrictions
25,000-80,000


Link


Hi Doc - my heart is just breaking.
Watching the death of the GOM by man's hand
is something that I never thought I would
have to live to see. Mother Nature yes,
we are on her playground- but this?

I always asked who's more cruel
Mother Nature or Human Nature...I think
I got my answer.....

I'm glad I haven't seen the idiotic comments
but then idiots always come out of the woodwork
when things are already bad enough....
flotsam and jetsom...
Take care.
270. code1
Not sure how to respond to states objecting to drilling in offshore federal waters - without fanning the interstate war flames much more - other than suggest perhaps as a matter of equality those state's residents should pay higher prices for petroleum fuels / petro-based products, with the difference going to pay eco impacts in producing states... I would feel less inclined that way if we were getting our fair share of royaties for compensation... as ya said, damned if do / damned if don't... No easy solution...

Morning and agreed Doc. I would have no issue with paying tax royalties to oil producing states for our use. Those states residents come here and spend their money, and a LOT of it. As is, we all are getting the royal shaft. We pay .16 to .26 more per gallon than AL, MS, LA, and TX does. Always have. Wonder where that money goes? Much the same with the century old mineral (coal/gas) leases in the Appalachians. Billions upon billions have been made, with the land owners themselves, receiving very little compensation and left with ugly scarred mountain top removal, and/or spring water and creeks forever polluted from strip and underground mining. No way to farm, log, or develop for recreational purposes. Big business...@%$%*&*$%. 'Scuse my cracker-billy french.
Tue June 8th... Day 50 Gulf Disaster...

Sorry, got busy, had to take a break from all this a few days...

Very hot and miserably humid here last few days and coming, outside of tstms as we've reached HX values of 105-110 plus... Heat Advisory in effect for SE LA...

Ya know the saying, when it rains it pours...
Well it's been abundant lately, but I'm referring to crappy luck stuff, like Saturday - cutting usual overgrown grass that's now outta control, hit a rock slinging it... and totally shattered the rear window of our car nearby! Perfect shot, couldn't have nailed it better if tried, lol... Gorilla taped what was left of the mosaic... What a week, after having tractor battery explode last Tuesday... Got it changed out yesterday, luckily all covered by insurance... The glass shop guys were impressed with my artistic cobbling to hold it intact, lol...

***

Hiya Shore, Emmy and Code!
Thanks for your visit and input... Hmmmm, looks like rather stormy wx over TX today!

Good point Shore, on differences involved - what makes S LA's wetlands so unique, different from rest Gulf coast and important as a world-class fishery / seafood source is our Achilles heel too - a far greater tidal influx / exchange from our low elevation, literally thousands of miles of interconnected waterways thru broken marshes / Delta mud soil, etc, a giant flow-thru teabag of a combined seascape / landscape... The ability of transport reaches far inland easily... LOL, just view a topography map of all locations on the N Gulf coast and see how far inland one has to go for significant elevation rise - vastly sharper away from LA...

That said, God help us all... hate to see all our natural treasures impacted...

Emmy, so true... Sadly afraid we'll find out what the combination of both human and Mother Nature will do, shortly!

Code,
Understand the drilling opposition and this event made those feelings stronger... Also know the nasty side of coal mining, besides the dangers, the ugly scars left of the mountain landscapes...

As for drilling in E Gulf, esp near FL coast, even before this disaster broke I thought it was mostly a moot point. With exception of far offshore S of Pensacola-Destin along the same deep MS / Desoto canyon edge regions, I've always had doubts there was enough oil to justify much exploration there... If there had been, intensive drilling would have already been done same as here for past 70 years or so, regardless of what the FL residents wanted... LOL, I offer Louisiana as exhibit "A" - just as portrayed in the old 1948 Jimmy Stewart movie "Louisiana Story", the Cajun farmers / fishermen didn't want 'em drilling here either when Texas oilmen came, bought land / people off and changed the landscape / economy base forever...

Seems some narrow-minded blindness to reality when hear such simplistic dreaming that we could just give up use of petroleum products suddenly and switch to "green alternatives"... Wish it was that easy! However, I also know as upset as we all are, we are all lashing out, totally frustrated at the human ineptness to deal with such...

As for my fiesty response, kinda took it as yet another slam against LA since we're apparently such an easy target for America to poke at... On that note, Bill Maher proved my prediction Fri night with his "if you still support drilling, I'm sorry, but my sympathy has abated" comment, seizing the moment as if the "green cause" has suddenly been set free to fly, were it not for oil-loving obstructionists drowning deservedly in the muck...

As we've been repeatedly slammed with one enormous disastrous consequence after another intensely for five years straight, with LA residents - the victims - stereotyped after as idiot dregs of society, too pathetic to wipe our own asses without govt help... Sick and tired of hearing that post-Katrina NOLA shit... And I damn well know a majority of Americans look down condescendingly on us here, despite the clear sacrifices this state has made in the "best interests of satisfying America's shipping and energy needs"... Hence, I also reacted with a familiar theme of loyalty to my home - as a life-long resident I will criticize the f'ing hell out of the stupidity of LA's business leaders / politicians, but g*ddammit, don't want to hear it from a$$hole "outsiders" who haven't a clue!!! ... LOL, more than a little bit stressed out here!

Personally, as bad as it is for local economy, I can support the DW drilling moratorium somewhat... although doubt a damn bit of good with more "intense govt scrutiny" now will change anything that we don't already know, although the shake-up in the MMS will help... Scrutiny and sharp criticism of proceeding carelessly from within the industry will do more to safeguard against another... Definitely a lot of mixed feelings on all this... AND, I got pissed hearing a local councilman whining in the media yesterday that "the economical hit was worse than the ecological damage to SE LA", sounding as the ignorant "business-first" a$$hole crybaby he is! While the ecological disaster is ongoing and destined to become far worse before gets better...

See what I mean? One minute I'm defending, the next attacking... I'm in a no-win position here... :(

***

Got more business to deal with of my own,
Later!
Oh man, $#*t seem to fly your way in heaps! So sorry to hear that my friend. All I can do is give you is a warm hug and pass you some refreshing green tea I stole from sub's fridge while he was away riding Donkey last night. (By the way, I finally met him in person last Saturday after 5 years of blogging, he was fully clothed as it was a hot day :)
Finn, thanks for the love and green tea!
On that note, tried the Snapple Compassionberry Tea (one of the two Celeb Apprentice winners) this eve, was tangy smooth... albeit a touch sweet, but satisfying, left me wanting more... I might suggest an increase to 20 oz size, lol.

Wow, that's cool ya met up with sub!

Sorry 'bout my escalating foul whining display, I've lost it... Guess not fit to be blogging when can't contribute anything but offering a steady diet of stale, sour gripes on a weather site...

Time to ban myself into exile.

Noooooo, come back! We are allowed to rant here - where else?
Gotta try that celebrity tea, I like sweet things sweet. I stopped watching Celebrity Apprentice when Annie Duke was fired and that horrible 'mother of horsehead' won.

Double Kiss

Yeah, meeting sub made my day :)
Well, just remember - since you banned yourself, you can unban yourself. ;-)

On the other hand, a break is good when you're dealing with a tough situation. Since we've got some placid weather for just a bit, why not go sit under a tree with some of that sweet tea and breathe a little? Sounds awfully good to me!
Thu June 10,

Hot, sunny-hazy and humid as we're stuck well under the ridge here, little rain chances... Actually wasn't too bad if ya used to working outdoors, as humidity levels dropped off a little bit more last two days, subsidence under the ridge being more notable... LOL, yeah, comfortably drier desert heat... But nothing as bad as Ridge-A-Mortis last year... yet...

***

Code - Thanks for the email response!

Hiya Finn and Shore,

LOL, limited my self-imposed ban to 24 hrs minimum this time...

As for my out-of-control frustrations over enviro issues primarily with the Gulf blowout disaster, be mindful there's another issue I'm confronting on a daily basis that haven't mentioned much lately, as I travel back / forth from Bayou Cane to Gray - the Bayou Terrebonne dredging project... They're continuing to butcher what few bankside live oak trees were "preserved" from the initial clearing to perform the bank sloping-grading, and that aspect of ecological destruction of trees I've known all my life is tormenting me... Still can't see the justification for this, as the net gain from the bank alteration appears very minimal, to say the least... Couple days ago, watched and photographed dragline operator rip out lesser trees, willows, etc in mere seconds at the water's edge that were below the live oaks... Yesterday, they had chainsawed the live oak branches, severely pruning them for better access... Originally, there were 21 live oaks along that E bank stretch - only 8 were left intact... By the time I pass by today, for all I know they may have decided to remove them entirely... Just pathetic example of poor stewardship of our natural heritage... It's eating me alive, mentally, spiritually and prolly physically too... Like they're doing with BP, perhaps I could sue the TPCG for the mental anguish they're causing me?

***

On a positive note concerning the oil clean-up - Right on Bobby Jindal! Now we're getting somewhere... The latest Cajun ingenuity effort I fully support, using Vacuum Barges to suck up the gunk!

Jindal introduces vacuum idea for oil cleanup


GRAND ISLE, LA (WAFB) - Gov. Bobby Jindal toured the marshes near Grand Isle Wednesday.

He rolled up his sleeves and rolled out the latest weapon he believes can win the war against the oil threatening Louisiana's coast. Prototypes are being tested of PVC pipe suction vacuums to pull the oil out of the water.

"We built three of these," Jindal said. "We started the first one. We want to put an 18-wheeler on top of a barge."

According to Jindal, it was built with Cajun ingenuity. The idea came from someone in his office.

"It's a simple idea, but it works. You put a suction truck or a suction pump [at the] top of a barge. We can go out as much as a mile. Get on an airboat and won't do any damage. Go get this oil out of these wetlands," Jindal explained.


I'd thought about this option as well earlier... Just need some adjustments at the nozzle design, and just as with home / shop vacs make several attachments for specific applications... I'd suggest adding floatation to the head for ease of use... Make large and small versions for the varied applications required - from open water removal to cleaning the intricate marsh wetlands... Also, in conjunction, use spray washers with Dawn / Ivory to get it off the marsh grasses where possible, then vac up the slurry...

***

Find it puzzling, those oil trajectory maps which at a glance indicates it's been shifted E of here for most of past week.. yet, almost daily see new reports of oil in Terrebonne... (AND, got a good whiff of that stinky, tarry smell couple days ago at well-inland Coteau-Bayou Blue area)... From those maps, one would think Mobile-Pensacola would be completely drenched in it, rather than spotty tar balls appearing...

Two things pop into mind... Sfc winds appear to impact movement minimally, it's largely ocean current driven (and that changes imperceptably and unpredictably) and it's brought in on tidal influx... Which brings me to point two - why SE LA has and will continue with high probability of getting the worst of this, relates to what I said previously on our coastal geographical differences with elevation and the flow-thru teabag nature of coastal SE LA verses the "bumping up against" action more likely there... All bets off concerning a hurricane surge transport wherever that would occur...

***

One last comment... and I've mentioned this long ago... Despite the decades of intensive oil exploration across SE LA and coastal waters / offshore and the expected greater chance of seeing impacts of spillage and such - the WORST encounter I've ever had in my life with nasty tar balls was during a vacation July 4th weekend 1978, in Panama City Beach FL!!! This was indeed apparently from a natural seepage event (one local told me was not uncommon from time to time, just as the jellyfish that were also abundant that visit)... Just to be sure, I searched thru 1976-80 EPA records and there were no human-caused oil spill reports in the Gulf anywhere near this region at the time... Not making a point here, just saying what my experience has been, as I also thought it absolutely ironic in the pro-drilling / against-drilling argument context... I mean, I left filthy "oil-rich" Louisiana, came to a "clean" Florida beach to get this gunk on my feet???
LOL...

Gotta run, more work duties call,
G'day all.
Hey Doc,

You just blow it out all you want my friend.
You are in the middle of all the mess going on and you not only dealing with the extra stuff you also have your own life to work.

Now cutting down the live oaks pisses me off also; it appears to be so unnecessary..

and as for the tar balls, we use to have them on our beaches here all the time...
and I have always been told they are normal in some places ...... because oil seeps naturally from the ocean floor.....

just not in the quanities this disaster is pumping out!
or when the tankers use to "clean their wells" out off shore of Ft Lauderdale beach before they came into Port Everglades!
That all got stopped in early 80's.

I took a break from all the heartbreaking news early this week myself and had fun with the family..
cannot live on misery all the time.

You take care and hope you can get a little R & R this weekend....
any good fresh water fishing going on in the backwoods?

Evening, Doc,

I just bumped up against this post of Quinta Scott's ~ Bobby Jindal's Ersatz Barrier Islands. I thought you'd appreciate it.

Hope you're having a decent weekend. We're into full-on hot and humid, and didn't get any of the rain that blessed north of I-10 last week. Apart from a little photography tomorrow morning, it's going to be an indoor weekend - mostly involved with hurricane prep, though.

Really felt bad about your description of the carnage around your local bayou. It's a fact, isn't it, that it's so much more painful when you can see it. I lived in a place for several years that was backed by woods - lots of deer, raccoons, etc. One day, the developers showed up and posted their signs. They intended to put in a strip shopping center on spec - on a road with no through traffic that dead-ended on a "T".

Luckily, I moved before they started with the bulldozers. Eventually funding fell through and they only got a single building up. As these things happen, that building is still vacant. I guess no one thought a road with no traffic was a good place to start a business!
My God, what a heluva impressively large tropical disturbance 92L has become in past 24 hrs, esp located so far EWD in E Atl on June 13th, near 6-7N within the ITCZ and minimal coriolis "spin" enhancement! Nice broad circulation, a bit elongated E-W (or SW to NE) but appears to have consolidated more today, need to see if trend continues to eliminate competing low centers... An Alex candidate, despite it's low latitude with all other parameters indicating favorability, seems would be more a surprise if we didn't get a TC from this... LOL, having difficulty buying 12Z GFS solution of it degenerating back to more an open ELY wave over next 3 days or so... UNLESS, the model thinking is for - more NW motion due to tugging toward a potential weakness in 700-500 mb ridging as nears 45W (which could also interfere w low-mid circ consolidation), the upper TUTT trof farther ahead of it's path, putting it under less favorable conditions... or it moving farther away from favorable MJO uplift it's under now... Any (or combo) of which could change the present "all-systems-go" appearance, with it embedded in abundant deep tropical moisture source - esp low and upper level... Doesn't show up easily on sat imagery, but noted an analysis of shallow mid level dry air slot to the N / NW (although not unusual)... Just a few thoughts, based on some model guidance I don't have full faith in right now, lol... Will be interesting to watch next few days, esp alarming for residents of Windwards with otherwise general WNW motion indicated... It's also alarming for the shock value of what's likely ahead this season!

***

Hiya Gams and Shore!

Yeah, it's an ugly fact we see everywhere ongoing, lot of talk praising great stewardship, preservation / conservation efforts and setting examples for the next generation... but always manage to excuse too easily such habitat losses as needed sacrifices for progress and improvements... Hypocrisy rules!

Gams, smart move... glad you took time for more important matters and delight with the family! Oh - from all accounts freshwater fishing continues to be very good, away from higher river flow areas... Not that I would know... lol...

Shore, hope your weekend has gone well too... Hurricane preps, already? Dang, that minimizes the fun of "panic mode"... ;) Thanks for the post with Quinta... LOL, down here I'm in the minority opinion on those idiotic and resource-wasting sand berms.. but I'll gladly side with the solid science-based coastal geologists over the emotional flailings of the do-something / anything-now crowd... Hell no, don't want Ship Shoal sand wasted over this nonsensical approach for short-term gain, if it could even accomplish that... and it won't! Desperate times call for desperate measures of false hope placating / appeasing a public fooled into seeing "action" taken! As I said before, many are being lulled into the idea this effort is in some way, a miniature form of the barrier island coastal restoration we've tried to get underway for decades... As such, it's a waste of valuable time, money and limited resources!

At least the vacuum operations underway offer realistic, actual pro-active oil removal and cleaning... We'll need a lot more of those and other skimmer ops before it's over... LOL, been hearing more folks waking up, crying out for 'em AFTER seeing oil-stained marshes, now weeks after the realization provoked me to rant out over the inept short-sidedness of those in charge... But - we still have an overabundance of some who are, ahem, "dumb and slow" ala Stanton, lol!

And nahhh, I'm not picking on Admiral Thad Allen who has mostly remained calm, cool and collected under intense pressure, demands, scrutiny and a daily schedule from HELL of meetings / briefings that have him in Houma one minute, in Washington the next, and back on the coast in the aftn... Guess he's an easy target but I'd love to see some of his harshest critics follow his footsteps for 24 hrs!

Which reminds me - I've seen more of Houma on CNN than I have driving around town lately!

Later...
Hold hope it's all bad enough that others can see we need to save our habitat now. Sorry about the oaks.
Impressive indeed Doc.... IMO the what were unfavorable conditions to the east of the Lesser Antilles, are now actually improving. The shear numbers have dropped again today, and IMO will continue to fall. The aforementioned weakness will tug it slightly north of 10N, before another blocking high ridge builds north of it. At this time there is a strong possibility that Alex will be a player in the Caribbean Sea. It is way to early, as you know to even speculate on whether this will eventually get into the W. Caribbean.
G'day all, Mon June 14

LOL, gotta try post quick, get back to work outside before tstms interrupt... cumulus steadily building w daytime heating / weak seabreeze / shear axis in vicinity, shwrs tstms expected on the increase this week...

Hey Skye,
I wish I still had a more optimistic outlook, but maintenance of the needed ecological balance continues at a low priority against the ever-growing needs of mankind in general, everywhere... More mouths to feed, more jobs needed, space to live, etc while every day the resources and opportunities dwindle as we expand... LOL, sad to say the hard reality is we humans are gobbling up the earth at a blinding rate in every way imaginable!

Hiya GR,
Well of course, a day later and we see changes more evident in 92L... Overall to me it looks less impressive on sat presentation than it did, although I still give it a chance over next 36-48 hrs, and particularly next 12-24... Beyond that, say by Thursday forward, very questionable it could survive as a TC as encounters higher shear and / or more dry air... On the plus side, as ya mentioned, the upper ridge may expand WWD in sync for a while, although some of the NWD lifting appearance currently could be it's presently near W edge of upper ridge, causing some SLY shear too... I still see issues with consolidation of LLC up to 700 mb with the elongation / conflicting vorticity - i.e., the lagging behind NE portion of heaviest convection getting lifted more NWD, as GFS analysis has indicated... It's forecast of vertical structure next few days at most critical times for organization, shows that continued NWD tugging of components from 850 mb on up, hence a more ELY wave configuration, outside of immediate short term best chance... Also as of this morning the sfc-850 mb circulation was not fully closed off enough, still open to the SW both in sat appearance and GFS analysis...

Also noted something else, and I'll have to disagree with Dr Jeff's mention today of no significant dry air issues, when I looked closely at the NOMADS Hi Res GFS depiction (and it showed this with yesterday's runs going into today, but didn't completely buy it at time) - Some surprisingly low level dry air entrainment interferring with organization, as clearly showed over past 18-24 hrs, a dry pocket from sfc to 875 mb - and notably dry core at 925 mb (down to 55% RH values) - was lying to the west, got pulled into the broad circulation on south side, at least temporarily... Model indicates this might mix out later by this eve... The more mid level dry slot I mentioned has moved WWD ahead in sync and doesn't appear the trouble today - if it did we'd prolly see evidence of tstms collapsing with LTO's racing outward away, and haven't noted those yet on Vis or RBG imagery...

Also have to wonder if it's passing beyond the zone of favorable MJO enhancement?

Let's see if it can get it's act together later today into tomorrow, as same GFS shows the more SW vort portion closing off, trying to consolidate temporarily...

***

LOL, at least this potential TC blob has taken mind off you-know-what blob for a short welcome reprieve...

About all the time I have today,
Have a good one all!
And the NHC this aftn is now downplaying 92L's chances from 60% to 40%... Sounds sensible...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1375 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE BECOME LESS ORGANIZED TODAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE IN A DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLAIN
Hi, just visiting to get updated :P

If I were the President... (lol) I would implement here the rule of Finland: You cut a tree, you plant two in its place. Simple and effective.
I can't even throw away a plant, even less kill a tree. Ditto Skye, sorry for the oaks... and all other living things :(
LOL for your comment on seeing more of your home on CNN than driving around!

I was away in CA for just 4 days, and when I arrive home I find... two blööbs spinning... and my okra & peas dead dry :(
Gotta check Skye's farmers almanac and plant something in their place - though they are not trees...
Happy week to you Doc, thanks for keeping us informed!
Hi Doc, Thanks for the Good Reads.
Tue June 15...

Small ULL over LA, combined w daytime heating / weak seabreeze enhancing w scat shwrs tstms formation... None measured at my two locations yesterday, but again popping up today with slow movement, so hvy downpours, strong lightning, locally gusty winds possible... While larger ULL trof lies over SW Gulf, non-tropical feature that I'm sure some see a hurricane forming from...

Well the joke was on us, and appears the GFS was right with no significant development of 92L... Finally got it's LLC well-defined as lifted more NW last 24 hrs, but for most part another near-naked swirl with little supportive convection as shear and dry air entraining previously mentioned has eaten it alive... I give it a slightly above zero chance of further TC development of consequence as slides WNW, lol... But it was fun to watch, and gave opportunity to shake the dust off, practice tropical analysis skills for the new season... How'd everyone do?
LOL...

***

Hello Finn and SurfMom,

Thanks for stopping by!
Finn, sorry to hear 'bout your okra and peas, darn Mother Nature forgot to water 'em for ya? Well at least you had something going - this is the 1st year in a long time my garden is blank, due to host of issues taking my time away, failed to get anything planted... Also was frustrated with horrible heat / drought / bug infestations made gardening tougher than usual last Summer - we did okay but many locals lost all their's - then, extreme wet and cold of Winter hampered the cool season crop - although w extra attention saving from the prolonged freezes, harvest was delayed / yield smaller, but a delicious success, lol... Anyway, barring the unforeseen, hope to have a Fall garden... Darn it, miss my homegrown veggies, summer tomatoes, squash, etc as typically have several varieties of each... From my Winter crop, I let several brocs / caulis go to flower / seed, lol, as the bees did their job pollenating, got enough to plant multiple acres, although could be a surprise what I get - hybrid broccoflowers likely! Yep, farming / gardening is in the blood... ;)

As for those trees removed - the joke of the matter is yes, the loss will be replaced with a future planting along another roadway, as local govt has instructed our local Tree Board... Simple isn't it? The local govt disregards the Tree Board recommendations on preserving what we have in losses with such projects, and thinks there's some kind of equality with simply planting new saplings to offset the loss of established, habitat-providing, decades-old trees... And not just live oaks - it's a long list of species that were rudely clear-cut... If any consolation (minimally), at least these weren't 200-300 yo live oaks being destroyed this time... They were about my age, as were planted around late 1940's / 50's... Then again, in a way, those were my siblings gracing the bayou banks, callously destroyed!
Dammit!!!

Okay... yeah, my anger / temper rising now and haven't even mentioned the ongoing, out-of-control oil-dispersant drenching catastrophe... What is it, day 57? No f'ing end in sight... Stick a fork in me, I'm done!

And lightning getting hvy at the moment, I'm outta heah...
Thu June 17, Day 59...

Seems the only good news read was that the relief well is ahead of expected schedule, could potentially reach target within 3-4 weeks, IF there are no further complications... God speed to 'em as we watch from 1 to 2.5 million gallons added every day (or higher - who knows?)... And some success mentioned with sfc burning operations... burn, baby, burn - I'll take my chances with it going up in smoke than clogging the Gulf waters... Already more than enough to realize fears of a destroyed or severely impacted fishery and habitat... and any TC increasing tides / surge will inundate the coast in layers of oil, it's a near-inevitable reality we face...

As for the raging debate over the DW drilling moratorium, esp here in the heart of oil country that supports so many jobs / businesses, I've had a lot of mixed feelings on it, but I'll toss my two cents worth in saying I support keeping it in place UNTIL THIS MONSTER IS CAPPED! However long or short that takes... They can whine all they want, grandstanding the threat over potential loss of jobs, I think it's a prudent decision for the time being to "pause" and limit deep water operations... for the moment... While it's doubtful another such incident would occur (esp with the healthy, intelligent caution MOST of the industry has shown for the past couple decades here, I'd also like to see some respect for the sheer magnitude of this historic disaster and the long-term consequences as our long-resilient Gulf ecosystem is being torture-tested beyond any wildest imaginations... Sheesh, even if the ban lasted full 6 months or longer, the Gulf remains a lucrative, primary source for exploration with plenty incentives - Big Oil won't leave for long should any do so temporarily... Guess some forgot how long the oil industry depression around the Gulf lasted in the 1980's - most of the decade, not mere months! I say lift the moratorium within a day or so after the gusher is closed off...

***

Hmmmmmm... The tropics deserve our continued attention with two Atlantic prospects ahead for next week (while TS Blas was named today in E Pac)... several runs of the GFS show one of the low latitude wave features in Cen Alt (perhaps current wave near 35-38W?) will develop into a TC by early next week, remain at relatively low lat (10-11N) moving W / WNW, maybe as a tightly wound TS moving over Trinidad by next Wed night / Thu... as today's 12Z run indicated... Lower Windwards will be monitoring this...

And we'll keep an eye on 92L...!
92L may be the new "Joker" this early in the season, as sure do not like projection from today's 12Z GFS... Today, it's nearing Leewards with "LLC" exposed, tstms above it being sheared by upper westerlies, at last sat check... and noted dry air issues - early pre-dawn morn convection to N of still-open-to-S/SW "LLC" / ELY wave showed classic LTO boundaries (arc clouds) racing out WWD as tstms collapsed from dry air ingestion, as was seen with earliest available vis imagery... Several runs have shown 92L remaining a respectable ELY wave moving over Leewards / PR / Hispaniola, tracking further WNW over Lower Bahamas toward S FL, then continuing as a mere rain-enhancing wave as reaches S FL pen / and Gulf over next 8-10 days...

Notable the 12Z GFS indicating the 92L ELY wave with chance for development once in SE Gulf, finally closing off into a tropical cyclone under generally good to marginally conducive conditions by late week as moves WNW / NW over warm loop gyre (and oil blob) and toward / into Louisiana (undetermined intensity then, appears a TD in SE Gulf)... Also shows mid level low circ support (but hints that mid low might not fully close off, and could get caught in faster ELY flow and outrun the sfc-850 mb low, i.e. vertical misalignment)... Upper level 200-300 mb winds during the period show a somewhat broad trof retrograding WWD over / toward SW Gulf, but perhaps with light winds aloft / light shear over the disturbance as corresponding ridge could set up over SE US - how this actually evolves could be key... All this is at the end of the medium range run capabilities and definition, and the 1st cycle showing this much development, so usual caveats for something a 144-180 hrs away...

For reference, this was the 12Z GFS NOMADS Hi Res depiction a week from now, 12Z Thu June 24th of 850 mb Height / Absolute Vorticity... and the 850 mb Isotachs / Wind Field... Not what us N Gulf coasties wanna see!

Since 92L has remained a strong ELY wave, much as has been modeled, moving W / WNW, it would be smart to continue monitoring for future possibilities, as appears this persistent "Joker" could surprise us once more... A few hrs ago, NHC put the yellow highlight circle back up, although with "zero" chance development next 48 hrs... LOL, no way anything could sneak up on the multitudes of attentive WU bloggers! Nope... not writing off 92L yet... but hoping that run was an outlier and I'm wasting my time blogging on it!!!

Later!


Status report on the relief wells being drilled to halt the Gulf of Mexico oil spill
Published: Friday, June 18, 2010, 9:06 AM Updated: Friday, June 18, 2010, 9:08 AM


BP is drilling two relief wells, a primary and a backup, in the Gulf of Mexico. The plan is for the primary relief well to intersect with the blown-out Macondo well at about 18,000 feet beneath the water's surface, or 13,000 feet beneath the sea floor, and pump it with mud and cement to shut it. If it fails, the backup well would take over.
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The relief wells are BP's final option to contain or stop the oil escaping from its Macondo well. The oil gusher has persisted since the Deepwater Horizon rig exploded and sank April 20, killing 11 people.

The relief wells start at about a half-mile from the accident and will try to meet the original well at a diagonal.

The first well has now been drilled to "just under" 16,000 feet, BP spokesman Tristan Vanhegan said. The second is at 9,778 feet.

"They're starting to close in on the well," Coast Guard Adm. Thad Allen said. "The last thousand feet is a slower process and has to be very exact."
G'day Pat,

Yep, making good progress with relief well #1, hope it continues!

Saw ya over on Jeff's blog...
Noted Jeff mentioning much same as I posted here yesterday... LOL, tried to add to the conversation with my obs (#132) on the shear / subtropical jet streak... but I'm apparently invisible or on ignore there... F' 'em... LOL... I should have learned by now than to go there!

Some of them need do a little research and find higher resolution models for reference...

Nope... I don't see any significant shear blowing from SWLY / WLY near and over 92L here, either...
LOL...
Hiya, Doc,

Going to be back in mid-afternoon for a more leisurely read of your weather prognostications. I had to laugh at your comment re: research and references. I just mentioned elsewhere this morning that there are times when The Oil Drum's chatroom resembles Doc Master's blog. If I didn't know better, I'd swear some characters are living a double life! LOL

But, if you want really funny, try this on for size. There was something I kept thinking, "I've GOT to tell Doc about that." Can I remember today what it was? Nope. So, I'll wander off and ponder. Maybe the heat'll finish baking my half-baked brain and I'll come up with it.

There's a terrific comment on The Oil Drum's current entry. RetiredL has his finger on a couple of things. (I just discovered we can link to specific comments over there. How cool is that?)
Hiya Shore,

LOL, some of them ARE on both blogs! Recognized a handle or two...

Ahh yes, we're in bake mode here too whenever the rains dry up, thanks for sharing the HEAT, lol!

Well if ya think that's bad forgetting a thought or two - I dropped in your blog yesterday, enjoyed the read and comments... and forgot to hit "post" on what I'd written before I clicked out (edit: Enjoyed your "instant fog" image, brought a smile of familiarity!)... To quote The Arnoldanator - "I'll be back!"

(edit: Thanks for the TOD link - nail on the head indeed!)

Got some work to deal with in the short term,
BBL...
Hi Doc,

Just checking in to say Hello,
there is nothing more I can add for now.

Someone needs to figure out how to
STOP THE DAMN FLOW OF OIL FROM THE OCEAN FLOOR!


Hi Doc -
Hope you are hanging in there and keeping your spirits up. All of us on the Northern Gulf Coast have been in "stress mode" for 60+ days now & the frustration level continues to rise like the summer temps.

Shore, I saw this - great post. In the end - its the lawyers who will get rich and the "small" people will be the ones who pay with blood, sweat & tears.....
Quoting shoreacres:
Hiya, Doc,

Going to be back in mid-afternoon for a more leisurely read of your weather prognostications. I had to laugh at your comment re: research and references. I just mentioned elsewhere this morning that there are times when The Oil Drum's chatroom resembles Doc Master's blog. If I didn't know better, I'd swear some characters are living a double life! LOL

But, if you want really funny, try this on for size. There was something I kept thinking, "I've GOT to tell Doc about that." Can I remember today what it was? Nope. So, I'll wander off and ponder. Maybe the heat'll finish baking my half-baked brain and I'll come up with it.

There's a terrific comment on The Oil Drum's current entry. RetiredL has his finger on a couple of things. (I just discovered we can link to specific comments over there. How cool is that?)
Oh, and I had been looking forward to a side trip to Avery Island, LA - never been there, but I suppose we should plan that for another time???
Happy Father's Day aftn all, Sun June 20th

(edit) - forgot what the date was today, LOL! And the Juneteenth celebration / observance yesterday! Was a common remembrance among most country folks of the South decades ago, regardless of racial background or blatantly ignorant stereotypes we as a mixed community have been labeled with...

Now ya see, I have bad tendency of just posting here and failing to visit others or... I post a comment or two elsewhere and neglect my blog! Oh well...

Hey Gams,
Guess all we can hope / pray for is a successful relief well operation... and step up the removal / containment ops as much is available - then quadruple it!
Hope you and Poppy (and family) enjoying the Father's Day off!

***

Glad to see the shwrs / tstms more scattered and AWAY from here today... as Houma-Thibodaux area has been pummeled with plenty hvy downpouring rainfall past few days! LOL, I've caught up on that Spring drought thingy, turn the taps off a while so I can dry out! Our location in Gray received near 4 1/2" just the past two days and water is standing everywhere... and strong downburst wind gusts yesterday broke and / or threw older dead limbs all over... Yeah, I needed more work!

(sorta reposting my comment from Shore's blog below)
Well on the bright side, we may not have much of 92L left to be a concern, as persistent shear / dry air entrainment has taken a steady toll ripping it apart as a tropical entity, and now mountainous terrain of it's passage over Greater Antilles... After the 2-3 days of GFS runs playing up the Gulf regeneration possibility - with Saturday's 12Z the last, showing a TD bordering on min TS intensity approaching SW LA coast a week from today - the last 3-4 cycle projections since show little in the way of even an ELY wave rain event (other than some enhancement for S FL mid week)... and a different outlook on upper air pattern evolution, that favors mostly stable ridging overhead pattern continuing for N Gulf region... Hope that continues to be the case... Whew! Was getting concerned might have to set my dip net out over my ditch to catch the oil coming inland on tidal influx it would have caused, lol... Hmmmm, no laughing matter, as prolly will be before it's all over... :(

What does show up is some increasing low-level, but mostly modest ELY flow, and with more ELY waves eventually reaching into the Gulf over time, as Atlantic ridging periodically builds WWD... Other than long-range playing up a Cape Verde system by 1st week July (and some chance to keep watching the W Carib, and maybe a low NE of Bahamas or S of Bermuda), nothing else looks too threatening for our immediate future...
Just keeping an eye on 92L to see the latest downcasting trends continue...

Later!
Hiya Foxx!

Yes, trying to keep abreast of things without it all driving me completely over the edge, lol! So hard not to be totally pessimistic after the frustratingly pathetic response effort we've seen, eh?

Oh by all means, visit Avery Island!
Hasn't been any impact there, and not likely until a you-know-what hits later in season, if it does then... In fact, I could use a re-visit to Avery Is - a unique geological formation of a whopping salt dome and diverse natural beauty of ancient live oaks, the large bird rookery and the gardens (including huge stands of timber bamboo!)... Also, one of the oldest, best preserved Buddhas in the USA - Lord Gautama - sits in a reproduction temple there welcoming visitors around a reflection pond... Kinda funny in the low-lying flatlands of S LA to come upon a "mountain" rising 168 ft above all else, and that's just the tip of the peak protruding above - it's size in entirety below ground has been characterized as able to fit all of Mt Everest and nearly half of the Himalayans range in it!
(edit) For peak color effect early April is prolly the nicest when massive azaleas are in bloom (and wx / temps more comfortable!) Otherwise, most of my trips there have been in Summer too.

Also gotta mention on a local note - for all the worrys and concern which remains over our seafood, for right now, I'm still seeing a reasonable supply of clean / safe, fresh-caught product.. although the price has gone up a bit (mostly oysters)... More of Terrebonne was reopened yesterday to both recreational / commercial fishing, largely all except Terrebonne Bay itself... Of course, subject to change...

Cheers!
Hiya, Doc,

While everybody else has been watching the beaches and the BOP, I've been keeping an eye on vessel traffic and discovered something interesting.

Seven Oceans, a reel-lay vessel belonging to Subsea 7, a pipe-laying outfit, has arrived back at Subsea's spoolbase in Port Isabel from Rio de Janeiro. She was in Port Isabel a couple of months ago and did some work in the Bullwinkle field, and then headed south.



I was looking at the vessel specifications and noticed a couple of things. One is the fact that pipe lay vessels are required to be able to stay on location in harsh weather. Another slightly amusing comment was made about the need for high-caliber welders at the Port Isabel facility.

"They need a few very good automated welding machine operators, and they need very high quality work," says Cornelison. "There's only one chance to do it right. There's no way to repair a leaking crude oil line in 7,000 feet of water." Uh.. right.

Anyway, it's pretty interesting. It may be a standard port call or she may be back for something related to the relief wells. No telling. But this is a great article about the vessel herself - and don't miss clicking to enlarge the photos of the bridge and operations center!

Here's a nice link to Subsea and information about the spoolbase. And here's a photo of the ship - isn't she a beauty? I believe I'll be keeping an eye on her ;)
Happy Father's day Doc.

Its a bittersweet one I know for all of us.

We had a portlight friend in the Barataria Weds doing Balloon Cam Imagery and she was like freaked out a tad.

And very Sunburned poor one.

I just hope we can see some "Hope" soon.

But Im worried about the rogue well casing and the condition of the well itself.

May you find some time to relax today friend.

If we can help down your way in any capacity..,

Just holla in mail friend.

Patrick
a quick checkback...

Hey Shore,
That's quite a ship, interesting to learn about all the specialty vessels supporting the oil industry... Thanks for the info and links on it, Subsea and Port Isabel... Yes indeed, very skilled automated-welder operators needed for such - knew one for a time, a former Vietnamese refugee, took great pride in his work and was much in demand at the local yards with his meticulous attention...

Closest I've been associated with anything of the marine industry, my partner and I worked on a former supply vessel in '92 being refurbished / refitted here as an offshore sandblasting / painting unit for French company based in Port Gentil, Gabon (the parent company was also involved in exotic timber exports - LOL, I never did get that load of ebony he promised cheap!)...

***

Good evening Pat,
Thanks a bunch, and equally return greeting to hope your Father's Day with the family went well!
Yeah, bittersweet this particular holiday has always been for me, for personal reasons I can't wallow into here... but yep, with the Gulf tragedy all holidays are gonna be tough to enjoy for a bit.

Oh my, sorry to hear 'bout the Portlight friend having a rough go of it... topped off with a nasty sunburn!

So true, a lot of concern with the well's internals... hard to believe it could get worse, but ya know it easily could at any minute... Saying prayers every day for the relief operation's success...

Thanks again bro, as I know that's a sincere offer, but so far so good on my end! Gonna be watching the situation as we deal with the blob as it migrates around... The nightmare that never should have happened... Still hard to fathom...

***

Okay gonna watch True Blood...
G'nite all!
Uhhhh... got that dip net handy? It's too early to give 93L the "Full Bug" for sure, but still....
Hiya Doc,

We are working on plans to visit - hopefully very soon. Need to go to Dallas & we decided to do a driving trip so we could visit some places on our Bucket List.

Hmmm - maybe we should schedule a special visit to Avery Island and try to time it for early Spring next year. Will have to talk w/ hubby and see what his thoughts are. We both want to visit, just got to get our timing right.

Also, one of the oldest, best preserved Buddhas in the USA - Lord Gautama - sits in a reproduction temple there welcoming visitors around a reflection pond... Kinda funny in the low-lying flatlands of S LA to come upon a "mountain" rising 168 ft above all else...
I had no idea! I suppose I should do a google search & learn more - I knew about the Tobasco, but thats about it... Must learn more! : )
As for the You Know Whats - I've got my fingers crossed hoping that Ma Nature will smile down on us and say we have enough to deal with, with the oil & all. No You Know Whats for us... fingers crossed.

If the YKNWs enter the Gulf, well, I don't even want to think about it. There's so much going on, so much we do not know... its like a big gaping wound & no gauze to wrap it with. : (

Good day, Mon June 21st...

Well sort of I guess, but a busy agenda, including discovering a leaky bathroom toilet tank... DANG, one headache issue after another, when does it ever stop?
Yeah.. I know... when we DIE! LOL...

Hiya Shore and Foxx!

LOL Shore,
I just posted mention of that in your blog, will repost the comment here... Yep, no need for the "Bug trademarked" "RUN-FER-THE-HILLS-WE'RE-ALL-GONNA-DIE" frenzy just yet, but I do hear her warming up, clearing the vocal chords in anticipation!

Indeed 92L is gone, but the trailing wave on it's heels to the SE really blew up nice convection overnight and now is the feature to "bear watching", now designated Invest 93L... No rest for the weary! Models all over the place with it, with most frightening guidance last 2 days from the Euro, esp the 0Z cycle today at 240 hrs out end run, which has it as a major hurricane moving into Mobile next week around Wed eve... But that's just the latest shift, as previous cycles showed as a TD sliding across BOC into MX, a marginal TS into Brownsville, then a strong TS / min H into Port Lavaca, now shifted way EWD... LOL, if follows that trend, next may have it into FL pen... Way early to put stock on track, intensity, landfall prospects that far ahead for system yet to develop but with other models (CMC / GFS) showing "something" entering "somewhere" into the Gulf region near the time frame under generally favorable conditions, it appears more likely - this may be last week of this extended spell of calm conditions over the Spill Zone efforts ... Sooner or later, ya know...
God help us...

***

Hey Foxx,
LOL, in all that I forgot to mention the reknowned Tabasco plant and pepper gardens at Avery Island!

Agreed - Fingers crossed, daily prayers, gris gris and voodoo dolls all need be invoked / employed... and especially sensible, timely preparations mostly for what little CONTROL over the situation we have!

Best wishes, friends!
BBL...
Sheeeesh, I really don't have time for this today!

GFS makes me nervous for it's depiction of 93L as just a broad ELY wave, as is in same region where it failed to ID Gustav in it's earliest cyclogenesis stage, for about 36 hrs... GFS is a slightly more interested in the next wave behind it - the previously referred to "Trinidad TS" which now takes it near there / lower Windwards over next day or so, then moves NWWD over Hispaniola / S Bahamas into or near S FL by late this weekend, but mostly as a rainy ELY wave or TD... Meanwhile the CMC, is apparently showing both features, with the low over S FL and 93L over the Yucatan by Sunday morning...

And now, the latest 12Z ECMWF today does little with 93L... but has it as mere ELY wave / tropical disturbance with broad low moving toward TX coast by Wed morn June 30... Quite a turnaround, and back to targeting W Gulf for general track motion... Expect to see more wild swings on this feature...

LOL, let the model watching / speculation of impending doom begin in earnest!
Plenty of tropical activity to keep up with... especially when they seem to pop up in "short-fuse" fashion! But generally speaking, as said before we can expect more action from ELY waves lifting toward the Gulf region after this week... along with development potential.

Okay, really outta here...
Later!
Here's your late evening giggle, Doc. Just found someone from your hometown over on The Oil Drum:

fritzie-borgwardt on June 21, 2010 - 9:35pm
Can anyone tell me if there are any substances that could help school children simulate micro experiments as in they act like the crude spill components and the salt water of the Gulf?

[new] wildbourgman on June 21, 2010 - 10:16pm
Use the real deal, in my home town of Houma we have a local councilman that's selling jars of oil from the spill to raise charitable funds. I'm sure Nalco will sell you guys some corexit 9500. They say none of this stuff is bad. They promise.

Gotta love that good old American entrepreneurial spirit!
Howdy, Tue Jun 22,

Hey Shore,
Well it has served as my morning giggle - wildbourgman is a familiar poster on the HoumaToday / Courier forums.

LOL, I'd had the thought of collecting the goo and offering it on ebay, then again with the wide availability of material to source, I guess we could say in time the market will likely become... uh, flooded! But I could sure beat the price that guy was asking - thousand bucks a bottle!
LOL...
Locally this month it's become the rare day it HASN'T rained... and another soggy day expected, as disturbance over NE Gulf region rotating in upper NELY flow around the ridge to our west / WNW promises more action... Had another very strong mesocyclone tstm move over Terrebonne yesterday right after I last posted w hvy lightning, downpour and 1" hail as indicated by VIL mode which briefly approached 55-60 kg over narrow area, but moved quickly thru... Although didn't see any hail reports on KLIX from here, not surprising if just wasn't reported OR KLIX didn't bother to post... And once again, KLIX waited too late in putting out the severe warning for Terrebonne (as they often do here!) - was already well past Houma by then, lol...

Hmmmmm, looking at the E Caribbean / 93L... Nice convective activity and diffluent outflow pattern under the moist upper ridge, but not seeing significant organization yet... Viewing on short wave IR, appears some LL spin just below Haiti nearing 17N, past 72W, to the west of heaviest convection... also see the little feature the GFS had been showing, some cyclonic turning in far SE Carib that moved past Trinidad overnight, roughly near 63W, but little convection associated with it, and is apparently not being ID'd as a wave by NHC (but mentions one near 58-59W)...

Plenty to watch, nothing alarming... yet, LOL...
93L development probability downgraded... for now...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...JAMAICA...AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER... ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

Short wave IR and RGB imagery shows 93L disorganized.. with brief spin-ups over broad area - the earlier one mentioned here has dissipated to the west off W tip Haiti... another of cyclonic turning, largely sans convection noted near 15.5N / 74.5W... and a bit more distinct turning on NW sector of the more concentrated hvy convective blob near 17N near 72W, below Haiti / Dom Rep border... and the spin within the blob itself roughly near 16N 70W... All moving WNW, after a more NW push (or pull) past 24 hrs...

Appears some dry air influence, but analysis shows most levels quite moist at 80% RH or higher over the broad context of the wave, with exception of the lowest layers of 1000 mb to particularly 925 mb down into 60-75% values, not exceptionally dry but notable contrast... driest pool mostly over Haiti, perhaps getting pulled into W side of disturbance... A bit reminiscent of what happened to 92L a week ago on June 14th after looking so promising / threatening...

Oh well, we shall see what comes of it next few days... besides the obvious increased rains over Greater Antilles...

Later!
Came back for another look at 93L before vis imagery gone... and looked at short wave IR / RGB... Appears the more consistent cyclonic feature, if a LLC is trying to shape up will be the one mentioned earlier to WSW of da blob ("largely sans convection noted near 15.5N / 74.5W") - at last look near 16N 75W, which appears consistent... Not much yet of sustained convection, but some firing around / over it... Seems should pass below Jamaica next 18-24 hrs or so if maintains W-WNW motion... The spinning blob lifting toward W tip Dom Rep appears more near mid level, transient feature... LOL, I think...

More work awaits...
Out -
and one last look...

Across the breadth of 93L, at intervals over 18 hrs today... I think I've spotted 5 temporary spin-ups competing at varied heights, LOL! Still in early stage to organize, might well shed the previous mentioned LL center candidate off to the west... fresh convection arcing broadly below Haiti focusing along 72-73W... or so... as we await signs of center consolidation / persistence along the wave... Fun to watch, might take a while, lol... Prefer it to stay weak / disorg enough to eventually bury itself into Yucatan... but not fester endlessly in BOC as 0Z just suggested... ;)

Viewing all the disturbed wx across E Carib, almost get sense of watching two systems trying to form...

Morning, Doc,

Even someone without coffee, contact lenses and weather smarts knows enough to look at this morning's radar and say, "Hmmmm...." lol

Rather reminds me of a pachinko game. As long as those "balls" just lay there, we're ok, but if some force pulls back the lever - SPROING!

But here's my real question. If two or three separate centers did develop (can't remember seeing that before - doesn't one usually absorb the others?) would they remain relatively weaker? Could a series of storms like that "train" like thunderstorms do?

I remember beell talking about that weakness in the ridge across the Yucatan being like a four-lane highway. Hate to see these things start traveling ;)

Better get rolling. I feel this compulsion to go do things!

ADD: A lovely example of telling it like it is.
G'day Wed Jun 23...

LOL, happy birthday to my eMac computer... been in my possession and running for 7 years daily now... don't wanna think about typical life expectancy issues with these gadgets... Think I also got married on this date 33 years ago, lol... Nahhhh, the Mac has held together longer with fewer problems and anguish... although it never learned to clean fish either... ;)

Missed the rain yesterday at both locations, despite the abundance from passing mid-upper low feature... Shwrs / tstms arrived pre-dawn today, had over 6/10ths, more likely with daytime heating, but best concentration has shifted WWD... Drier trend in store next 2-3 days, as ridging reestablishes, back into mid 90's with slighter chances rain...

***

Hey Shore,
LOL, hope ya got the work done this morn, as that radar wasn't lying - sending this drought relief your way for next couple days - "Sproing" it shall be!

Yes, from broad or elongated tropical low pressure area with competing vorticity "centers" there has to be consolidation into one primary LL circulation center as we've seen on countless occasions... or sufficient distance apart for two systems to form and remain intact, typically a few hundred miles of separation needed (although thinking back to Tiny TS Marco one has to wonder about such close proximity possibilities of equally small, weak systems)... As for "training" of one after another, the repetitive E Pac activity of past week is good example with the 3 storms there, but again via sufficient separation...

I imagine Beell was talking about the chance for the CONUS trof coming across early next week dropping far enough S causing a break in the steering ridging pattern, leaving a weakness over the Gulf for 93L to lift NWD into - and various model's guidance remain in disagreement over trof / ridge pattern's strength / timing, plus 93L's position / strength at that time... Lotta options ahead, no conclusions drawn...

Plus: Thanks for that TOD comment link... Rockman lays out the bare reality of situation well!

***

Saw the mid level swirl of convection that blew up last night below Haiti has croaked, as 93L wave and area of interest to watch is still SE of Jamaica along 15-16N, moving W / WNW slowly (obviously, to take longer to go past than I estimated before)... Imagine that latest temporary mid level blow-up mentioned last night below Haiti, with nothing at sfc-low level to support it was left behind in the very weak flow near that height... While it's still a light ELY trade flow at sfc-low level, it appears almost stagnant at 500 mb... Also complicating the "view" of convective activity in E Carib is the other 850-mid vort max that lifted toward NW since yesterday from far SE Carib into the trailing peripheral "diffluent outflow" convection, plus another ELY wave now moving across E Caribbean enhancing additional activity in the region...

(edit / add: Seems the GFS remains the outlier among models with strong development chances of 93L... but it would be a kick in the pants if the cut-off low N of the Leewards it is indicating in 3-5 days developed Subtropical Storm Alex first, LOL!)...

Educational to watch all unfold and guess as always...
We having fun, yet?
LOL...
Evening, Doc,

Happy b'day to your boon companion! lol You might want to think about inventing a computer that cleans fish - You could be rich!

Not a drop of rain here today, apart from a spritz or two on the windshield. A nice cloud cover kept the temps down a bit and the rain away. It was funny to see it get to Galveston Bay and then just fizzle, all day long. Maybe tomorrow.

A truly interesting note on TOD's latest post re: a possible intent to circumvent Gulf storms by sending production to another platform via pipeline, and then by pipeline to shore. The original article, posted in Upstreamonline.com, included this:

It emerged on Tuesday that the possibility of bad weather in the US Gulf has prompted federal officials to consider trying to tie back Macondo to an existing production platform where the oil could either be produced or re-injected into another formation.

The idea, which has never been announced before, was discussed at a meeting last week between US energy secretary Steven Chu, interior secretary Ken Salazar and industry officials, Coast Guard Admiral Thad Allen said Tuesday. The closest platform, according to MMS maps, would be the Na Kika installation, where BP and Shell are partners on a number of tie-back developments.

The semi-submersible production platform is moored about 15 miles away on Mississippi Canyon Block 474, where it produces about 75,000 barrels per day.

The Nakika pipeline actually runs through Mississippi Canyon Block 252 but the production would need to be processed before entering the line, which runs to the US mainland. But Allen said the plan targeted a platform that was not being used for production.

He said the plan had only been discussed in “exploratory conversations” but the government had sent letters to operators that may have a suitable platform. The UK supermajor would then need to lay pipeline along the ocean floor and tie it in to the platform.


I really felt last weekend that Seven Oceans' arrival at the Port Isabel spool base was somehow related to the goings on at Macondo. I don't guess they can get their pipeline laid and the processing started before 93L gets a name and shows up, though. ;-)

Have a good evening - looks like we've still got a while to wait to see whazzup w/93L.
The 93L tease:
Saw this earlier and again with last available vis sat imagery views, but no obvious reason to post any sooner... After what've seen so far, I'm not sure if it's worth watching the convection around Hispaniola / Jamaica for development unless see same low-mid swirly blob persist to work it's way down, as clearly the naked sfc swirl is well west of shwrs / tstms... passed 80W late aftn, nearing 15N as appears moving WSW toward Nicaragua / Honduras presently... Who knows... Maybe will get it's act together next couple days if slows over NW Carib, drifts toward Yucatan... or maybe the next wave passing below PR-Hispaniola will do something...

LOL, not that it's breaking my morale if 93L doesn't satisfy those prior ECMWF / CMC / GFDL / HWRF alarmist outlooks for a N Cen Gulf hurricane... but the denialist GFS is looking a bit less the outlier, so far with 93L... Most of others seem coming to similar outlook at present... Prudent to keep eye on it all, of course, the current disorganized view is subject to change...
Good evening Shore,

Guess I clicked on here, took awhile gandering at everything, missed your post...

Ahhh well, I didn't really get much additional rain after this morn... Yep, your chances still look good tomorrow, despite work interference I bet y'all need the rain...

Wow, that's an interesting concept with the pipeline, thanks for the info! We sure could use something on that order, hope they can accomplish the task... LOL, indeed, the sooner the better before one of these tropical systems wakes up!

(edit): AND, that was a great hunch you had about the Seven Oceans ship's possible involvement!
315. beell
but the denialist GFS is looking a bit less the outlier, so far with 93L

LOL, Doc, and a Howdy!

If it would just move this system onshore somewhere along the western Gulf. Would hate to see something sit and stew in the far southern BOC.
Hey Beell,

Man, this is too funny - I just visited your blog to read your thoughts on 93L!

LOL, even better if it would just croak over Cen Am before gets a chance ANYWHERE in the Gulf, eh? Guess we might not be quite that lucky... but yeah, no long-term festering in the BOC either!

As for the GFS, I'll prolly trust it despite all other guidance saying otherwise, up until the point my roof blows off and I'm wiping slimey crude oil off my face, LOL!!!

Glad you stopped by, bud!
317. beell
LOLx2
Hey Doc! Just realized I've been spending way too much time on the main blog. LOL. I need to get back set in my ways of coming to your blog first!

Interesting feature, 93L is! Tonight seems to be the best it has been organized its entire life. Seems to have some sort of closed low level center east/east-northeast of Nicaragua with deep convection continuing to build around/over the center. Seems like models are still useless at this point. EURO goes to extreme South TX, GFS (new version) goes to MS/AL/FL, GFDL same area, and HWRF same area. Canadian went from right on top of me, back down to Texas. LOL! One model might get lucky on a roll of the dice and nail the eventual track. As most of us know, a stronger 93L (Alex) will more than likely make a move towards us on the N Gulf Coast as it feels the weakness from the trof coming from the NW...For BP's sake and more importantly the ecosystem of the Gulf states, a weaker 93L (Alex) that moves more west would obviously be the better solution! I'm split right down the middle for now and have no idea what this thing is going to do! I'll have a little better feeling in the morning (well later today...it's 2:08AM Fri) of what this thing is going to do. A more organized, strengthening 93L in the morning will not bode well for the N Gulf Coast, IMO...

Good day Fri June 25,

A very busy yesterday and today on tap here... Of course, lotta tropical activity to watch, keep abreast of... but of more immediate concern for me is - finding the needed parts, and putting my toilet back together... soon! Can't uh, put this on hold over staring at the potential tropical issues right now, LOL!!!

Hiya MS Wx,
Yes sir, remains several options on 93L's future and will take another day or so more for clearer view... A TD does seem imminent if remains offshore enough... It did appear the sfc circulation slowed or near stationary off Nic-Hon coast allowing the slower moving low-mid vorticity field to catch up, and / or fresh convection to build over it... (Dang, I sure miss the Hi Res QuikScat right about now!)... In one form or another we're gonna feel some effects on N Gulf by next week... Honestly, I just haven't had the time for any deeper analysis to devote to it...

But I sense there is a good chance we'll see TS Alex by early next week if not sooner... Question is if it will affect the Gulf region... or Bermuda, LOL!
As that 2nd feature has been showing signs of organizing despite the shearing of the ULL to it's NW... Changed my view on it of being possibly subtropical as subsequent model runs showed the ULL either weakening or shifting WWD allowing favorable ridge to build over it...

LOL, who knows, we might easily have both Alex and Bonnie at same time!

And my God what a beautiful Cat 5 hurricane Celia became yesterday - moving out to sea bothering only the fish, a gorgeous image of a perfectly circular storm on sat view!

Oh, locally was less rain around yesterday - but damn if I didn't get blasted with a very hvy downpour that dropped 1.28" amt in less than 15 minutes!

Okay, be back when other pressing real-life issues are done...

Happy TC monitoring!
BBL...
Hiya Doc
You said:
LOL, who knows, we might easily have both Alex and Bonnie at same time!

This happened in 1933 - one hit Texas the
other FLA. a two-fer
Some pro mets really are comparing this season
to 1933....
Some people say raising twins are easier....
:-) Dont think it applies to wx though.
Be safe.
And my God what a beautiful Cat 5 hurricane Celia became yesterday - moving out to sea bothering only the fish, a gorgeous image of a perfectly circular storm on sat view!

LOL, DOC. Glad I'm not the only one who noticed that. Well, I'm sure there were others. I didn't even know she was a Cat 5 but I decided to take a look. What a beautiful picture she made.

Well, I'm trying to break my wu habit. (Seventeen LOLs on that!) HAD TO check in today to see the start of 2010 Atlantic tropic season. The kids in the main blog sure were whooping it up and having a great time!

Saw Bobby Jindal and other LA residents speak yesterday on cnn. He's sure got a lot of energy, that guy! I hope everything works out well in LA. I know it won't be easy or soon. Thinking good thoughts for you, even if you don't see me around.
:)
00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts

There's a new thread at TOD - Gulf of Mexico Storm Watch.

Apparently Margie Kieper is doing more than just posting there - she's working in the background, too. That's especially good to know.

Finn lurkin' and leaving a new toilet seat on the front step - was buy one get one free... 8-D
Good evening / late nite / early morning,

Had another .83" amt rain didn't need today, lol... Hate these "drier forecast" days when only iso t-shwrs pop, and they're over me!

93L finally graduated to TD #1 status... and remained so for 10 PM advisory, so we'll see if can become Alex tomorrow before moving into Yucatan late aftn / eve... N Belize / Chetumal area would seem likely if maintains WNW motion (280-285?), perhaps higher up if 295 as advertised... Quite a large system overall - compared to tiny H Darby nearby in E Pac...

Will have to see next few model runs / degree of organization toward Yuc landfall / trek across before getting a sense of it's chances when emerges / tracks into the Gulf... guidance remains iffy whether we'll have a concentrated system or broad / elongated disorganized feature, but sure looks stormy w hvy rains on east side of whatever we get...

***

Hiya Emmy,
Well, seems less a chance with a Bonnie from 94L as viewing WV loop shows that ULL just to it's NW hasn't budged, forcing high shear and prolly dry air into it... Last couple GFS runs showed same and have backed off a good bit... LOL, I'm sure Bermuda folks aren't disappointed if doesn't happen...

Hey Barefoot,
Glad to see ya drop by...
Yes, Celia was an AWESOME view, classic Cat 5!
LOL, I haven't dared go past reading Jeff's thoughts over there... Bet it was abuzz with all the development today!
Yeah, Bobby J is an expert speaker when he's on a roll, lol... Thanks for the kind thoughts, and equally returned!

Hi Pat,
I like the tracks that show it farther to SW and the weaker the better! LOL... we'll be watching closely - I'm sure ya caught all the headline attention it's gotten in local media / TV this aftn...

Hello Shore,
Thanks for the TOD linky, no doubt resembles Jeff's blog somewhat today, lol! Margie K's knowledgable and was a good contributor here (although rubbed some of us raw with some "IMHO's" that were not quite so humble on a couple post-K issues, IMHO - LOL!)

Hey Finn,
Well, uh... thanks! Nice color match, too... ;)
But the repair / reassembly went fine... all back in working order, lol!

***

Well, will check tomorrow on our brand new tropical cyclone's progress... Was too long and busy a day for me to add much meaningful tonight... LOL, not worthy of an all-nighter yet!
Lied, of course viewing the loops before check out Z...

LOL, on W Atl sat loops Darby appears running away scared at the sight of quickly growing TD 1 / Alex...

Warrants concern as that's an impressive presentation tonight showing textbook / classic outflow pattern developed, in sync with broad intensifying low, convective bands wrapping in, more right over center, it's looking healthy / conditions favorable! 60 mph at landfall, maybe?

All along W Gulf to NE Gulf / SE could be affected over course of next week with slow moving flooding-rain-more-than-wind tropical disturbance / progressive trof interaction, indicated by 0Z GFS... LOL, hoping most organized wanna see this large system is next 18 hrs or so... or less... the appearance tonight shows a ton of potential...

ZZZZZzzzzz.....
Quoting DocNDswamp:
Lied, of course viewing the loops before check out Z...

LOL, on W Atl sat loops Darby appears running away scared at the sight of quickly growing TD 1 / Alex...

Warrants concern as that's an impressive presentation tonight showing textbook / classic outflow pattern developed, in sync with broad intensifying low, convective bands wrapping in, more right over center, it's looking healthy / conditions favorable! 60 mph at landfall, maybe?

All along W Gulf to NE Gulf / SE could be affected over course of next week with slow moving flooding-rain-more-than-wind tropical disturbance / progressive trof interaction, indicated by 0Z GFS... LOL, hoping most organized wanna see this large system is next 18 hrs or so... or less... the appearance tonight shows a ton of potential...

ZZZZZzzzzz.....


Doc, I just missed ya! Alex is doing a crazy thing right now. It almost appears to have an eye like feature. Levi, on the main blog, seems to think it's an over-shooting thunderstorm right over the center that is shooting right into the stratosphere, where the air becomes warmer again. I'll post a pic below. Alex is certainly putting on a show tonight!

Look closely, and you can see a darker "speck" right in the center of the system.
Morning, Doc,

Finish up any of those chores, 'k? LOL

You: It's looking healthy / conditions favorable! 60 mph at landfall, maybe?
Them: 120hr VT 01/0600z 24.5n 95.5w 60 kt

I'll tell you this - the GFS is not my friend this morning, although it did make me laugh. Briefly. Off to start the day - check you later.

(ADD: GFS apparently heard my complaint and has gotten more in line w/its friends)
Good day, Sat June 26...

Heat advisory on again for SE LA... Have to see if "dry" forecast pans out at my location, but HOT is a guarantee!

TS Alex continues to look quite large and impressive, although as NHC mentions inner structure has not rapidly organized, but steady strengthening could be expected before landfall tonight...

Almost all models have shifted WWD, w last 0Z Euro offering what we'd like to see w a continued low lat track over BOC on into E Cen MX... HWRF slower in forward progress as taking it inland a bit above... CMC and as last GFDL toward Brownsville... and GFS runs even slower than the already projected slow down in forward motion next week... The later the approach of CONUS trof influence the better as could allow current steering ridge to drive it inland over SW Gulf, but... sure appears steering will go flat, a crawl / stall quite possible Tue-Thu, leaving a lot of uncertainty with potential trof interaction late week... but agree Alex could easily become a formidable hurricane in W Gulf if maintains organization / re-org after reaching BOC moving WNW / NW... perhaps less so with the quicker ECM low lat track... A slow crawl will put everyone on pins / needles...
We shall see...

Hey MS Wx,
No doubt, was very tall, cold cloud tops exploding over / near the center... Impressive convection ongoing...

Hiya Shore,
LOL, those chores are demanding more of my attention than I'd like... every day it's rained - over a week now - is making that load worse and getting me farther behind, so can't be here as much as wish...

The 60 mph possible intensity landfall I was pondering about is for tonight into Yucatan, not 5 days later! LOL, all bets off there... The uncertainty (esp after slowing) and plethora of "maybe's" offered by the GFS has been worrisome for days now...

Later!
Hi Doc,

Hot and hotter, yes that is the ticket this summer for most of us.

Sure hope Alex does what is right and keeps heading westward.....

Not much time these days but wanted to pop in and say hello...

will be in and out a lot checking on Alex and other systems as they pop up...

Try to find some fun time this weekend.
TS Alex has really had a dramatic burst in forward speed, less time for further strengthening at pace it's moving toward Belize / Chetumal... That's encouraging...

Good news / bad news with 12Z GFS, as takes Alex into lower BOC but with broad, expansive low in place, deep trop moisture / low-mid vorticity lifting NWD over Gulf and perhaps N stream mid level feature coming across, now spawns a second low sitting off SE LA coast by Tue! Alex eventually drifts into MX, but Gulf low / vortex waits on secondary amplifying, digging of trof or short wave to latch onto it, have it crawl agonizingly slow along / over NE Gulf - SE states... intensifying as goes, swept out with the trof into Atlantic... Why the GFS has been worrisome, as has shown versions of this set-up for several runs (have seen this, but never did see what Jeff, some others mentioned of GFS bringing Alex to N Cen Gulf area, certainly not as in it's current identity)...

LOL, far from outta the woods for N Gulf coasties!
Expectations for a stormy week ahead remain, regardless... just hope not strong enough to curtail spill containment ops, but quite possible...

We'll see...
Gotta run,
BBL when can...
Hiya Gams,
Well whatever Alex does, we may still have issues to contend with, as mentioned above...
Hoping (beyond hope?) for minor trop disturbance with more rain than wind along our coast at worst, lol! However, winds, sea swells and tides will be increasing...

Have a good one, I'm heading out too!
Hot and humid down here too!
Alex is HUGE, the size of GOM!
What's that thingy SE behind it in BOC?
Morning, Doc.

I was wondering when our extra active season was going to kick in. It seems awful quiet for most of the month. Not that I'm complaining but it makes me a bit nervous about how much is going to be crammed into the rest of the season. ACK!

My coworkers that watch the tropics kept asking me about that blob. I told them to expect a TD, at the very least, by Sat. Turned out to be TS Alex but I wasn't too far off!

I guess I haven't popped into TOD often enough to catch the fact that Margie was posting over there. I peep in but it's usually a fly by. Too many emails, too many blogs and too many websites on my list. It's hard to absorb them all.

Hope things are going well with you, mon ami.
Hiya Finn and Bug, good Sunday to yas!

Didn't realize y'all had dropped by, been posting some at Beell's...

Hey Finn, I think ya meant the blobbiness in SW Caribbean?
NHC mentions it as enhanced low level convergence off the ITCZ, dunno as I thought it might be the wave that was trailing behind Alex...

Hello Bug,
Appears you might have some storminess / possible hvy rains to consider later this week too... if the frontal trof / short wave and low-mid convergence induced low develops along NE Gulf / SE states region as GFS has been advertising... Who knows, could be some development after gets shoved offshore Atlantic... really looks like potentially a hvy rainmaker for most part... Like we need something besides Alex!

And I know what ya mean... if I go to TOD, I'm stuck in there for hours, taking it all in...

LOL, plenty to keep up on...
As we've all seen the alarming new prospects from last day's worth GFS runs which finally decided it wanted to join the crowd blowing up Alex into a bigger monster moving toward somewhere on TX coast to near TX-LA border later this week... Some of those runs are quite scary, and last thing we need see is another Audrey in late June... But a major hurricane is a possibility with Alex if tracks as such, and eludes any shear / continental dry air issues...

Sure makes us nervous the GFS and CMC have both locked into similar more-NWD solutions last day or so almost identically... Latest 12Z ECMWF maintains the strength of subtropical steering ridge, bringing Alex near Tampico on Wed...

Still well-defined Alex is within a couple hrs of moving into BOC as nears close by Ciudad del Carmen...

Well, really can't add more details here now,
work duties are calling...

BBL...
Ah, yeah, the three letter wx-words still get to me me... GOM BOC, DOC, COC, etc... but you knew which one I meant. Nobody mentioned it, so musta been just dots in my eyes after staring at swirly thingys :)
Yeah, hopefully Alex could be a nice rainmaker for you like TS Fay was for us in SEFL a few years ago - huge, wet & quick, though further North it flooded some areas.
Glad the color matched your bathroom. I love turquoise toilet seats! lmao
A bientôt!

Good morning, Mon June 28...

Hey Finn,

That's exactly what I fear from Alex, combined w cold frontal boundary to N that will be draped above our region... Prolonged hvy rains / flood event to develop this week... Esp with position of Alex over BOC / W Gulf, the low-mid level flow around the subtropical ridge, the entire Gulf is an alleyway for huge advection of deep tropical moisture pooling over the N Gulf... Besides the obvious concern for TX getting a cat 2-3 landfall, the forecast for all of us on the east side is several days of very hvy accumulations...
I've had concerns of Alex resembling an Audrey, but overall effects regionally could be more like an Allison for some spots, esp here from such a very large TC...

And LOL, you are absolutely correct... Turquoise it is, a perfect match!

***

Hurricane Watch posted along NE MX / S TX coasts...

Coastal Flood Watch posted SE LA coast...

TS Alex reached the BOC and came to a near stall late Sunday, drifted N and moving slowly NNW today in somewhat weaker steering flow... Guess this was the "wallowing / festering in BOC" period GFS had advertised, as the approaching CONUS trof has began shunting the subtropical ridge EWD, forcing the stall and NWD shift in Alex's track... Continuing to increase in strength, now up to 60 mph and could become a hurricane later today... If tracks more toward Cen TX coast landfall by Thu or so, Alex could potentially become a major hurricane, but is quite likely to attain 90-100 mph winds at least...

(12:30 edit: Viewing vis sat images, appeared Alex may have been drifting more NNE this morn, however may be more the case of the mid level circ also being shunted a little more N and EWD, off-center... Fresh convection appears building back more over LLC... Also a closer look at RH analysis and WV imagery shows there is a wedge of notable dry air at 650 mb to around 300 mb heights - sharpest contrast delineation at 450 mb - lying between the core of Alex and the upper trof to the west that could contribute some disruptive effects)...

Away from the storm, effects are already being felt from the huge circulation setting up... S / SE winds began to be felt Sunday over coastal SE LA, and increasing today... very notable tropical feel to the air and skies, as shwrs / tstms developed w towering cumulus noted with patchy cirrus above... A band of shwrs tstms lifted onto coastal SE LA early this morn in seabreeze fashion, and more developing on the way as sat imagery shows - some of this enhanced by transitioning ULL over LA getting kicked out EWD, weakened or absorbed by larger advancing CONUS trof... This week looks tropically ugly, as expected...

S LA Tides are already running a foot above norm, espected to keep rising, and along with hvy rains expected, hence the coastal flood watch issued at least thru Wednesday... Large sea swells will be propagating across the Gulf and coastal winds / wave heights to steadily increase next 3-4 days from Alex's broad circulation field... Alex may be a MX / TX storm, but it still represents a major disruption over the oil spill disaster, will most likely shift and spread the oil around further... and may interrupt containment / relief drilling efforts...

BBL...