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SE LA obs Jan 3 2012... Short-lived arctic chill...

By: DocNDswamp , 4:47 PM GMT on November 11, 2011

Latest W Atlantic Basin AVN / IR Satellite Image...

W Atlantic Basin AVN Satellite Image


(No comprehensive update or review of 2011 stats yet, but needed to change the header to "something" more recent... which of course will be outdated soon, lol... As usual, updated info can be found within comments section)...


Wed Jan 4 2012, SE LA Wx...

Expected warm up underway today with incr SE winds / humidity / dewpoints... Big contrast from yesterday when had amazingly low dewpoints across SE LA down to single digits many locations - one of the lowest was Slidell, had 2F dewpoint temp at 1 PM! Cold remained entrenched overnight, clear skies / light to calm winds, good radiational cooling lead to my 3rd light freeze of season and 10th frost, which was very thick... Temps fell quickly after sunset, this morn KHUM was colder showing a 28.4F low (but is really a range between 28.4F to 30.2F since it only reads whole degrees celsius), while my home thermo refused to drop below 31.5F, which I am certain can be attributed to massive urbanization / land-use change / habitat destruction surrounding my Bayou Cane, LA location above Houma...

Rather than compare to KHUM airport, a better comparison of this drastic temp difference is between readings at our Gray LA location, just 6-7 miles N of Bayou Cane, and to this point is still a truly rural setting in North Terrebonne (but not for long!)... Prior to excessive development in Bayou Cane, these two locations physical topography, lay of the land with mix of woods / adjacent open fields and no immediate proximity to a waterbody were identical... Last night was a good example of distinct changes that have been wrought - by the time I left there at 9 PM the Gray thermo was already trending below 30F, frost had begun covering the roof of the car and house, ice forming... Drove home within 10 minutes to find my home thermo at 39F - a full 10F higher - no signs of frost and it clearly FELT warmer regardless of whatever might nit-pick over the two thermometers accuracy!

In that matter, I'm certain the Gray thermo has a cold bias of 2-3 degrees - this morns low showed 24F - but accounting for that still reveals it's become several degrees warmer where development is altering the microscale local climate to a warmer state... It's often more noticeable on Winter nights under such conditions of calm winds / ideal radiational cooling than like wx conditions we had the previous night / morning before (Tue 3rd) - with widespread CAA and mod strong NLY winds mixing the boundary layer more homogeneously over the area and the lowest temp on both thermometers read near 30F yesterday... Nothing new of course, we've KNOWN the UHI impact for decades, guess my point is just that it's now GROWN to alter MY LOCATION noticeably over the very short timescale of a decade or two... So much for UHI being an "island", as fast as human footprint is expanding a better descriptive is needed to reflect today's reality...


Tue Jan 3 2012 greetings,

Nice seasonally cold early January day under severe-clear skies, as dome of arctic high pressure edges across our region - noted climbed to 30.61" for highest sfc pressure reading *this year*, lol... Daytime temps slow rising, now into mid-40's at noon hr...

Overnight temps were slow to fall off as the initial cold air advection with this system was rather weak by "arctic" standards, but did fall to 30.6F low on my Bayou Cane home thermo to declare my 2nd freeze of season, albeit brief duration of about 2 hrs, not enough time for ice to form in my buckets... Seems a secondary surge of cold air got here near sunrise as I reached my low after 7 AM, much like Slidell hit their low of 25F then... Of course had another "WTF? / WUWT?" moment viewing KHUM airport readings which showed it, sigh, once again, bottoming out at an even 32.0F... Thanks, but no thanks, I prefer more precise reading than the span of a whole degree celsius - will assume might have shown a 30F reading had they dropped to -1.0C / 30.2F... But such is the case with the only weather station in Houma being "not up to NWS standards", or as described here at WU - "Averages and records for this station are not official NWS values", besides having frequently sporadic reportage issues...

N winds also held the temps up overnight and that combined with very dry airmass eliminated any frost chances... May be some tomorrow morn and low temps should be close to today's as Freeze Warnings remain in effect, "might" have better rad cooling here "if" E / SE winds don't kick up with the sfc high sliding EWD... Forecasting the low temp tonight is a crap shoot and very location dependent over SE LA, as I'd agree with KLIX NWS assessment in this morn's discussion on factors - "THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT...PROXIMITY TO WATER...AND LOCAL WINDS WILL CREATE QUITE A RANGE OF LOWS...SO THE DURATION OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER A 20 MILE AREA COULD RANGE FROM 6 HOURS TO NONE."

We shall see and regardless, the moderating return flow warming trend will be underway tomorrow, some chance of shwrs Fri-Sat with next feature coming across...

Work calls, hey it's too clear / sunny to be inside... ;)


SE LA obs Dec 7 2011, coldest wx yet on 70th anniversary Pearl Harbor...

Wed Dec 7 2011... Cold, with Freeze Warnings...

70th anniversary Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor.
...a scant dozen years before I's born, us post-WWII baby-boomers are getting old!

Cold weather arrived / well-entrenched across our region... Actually the outlook mentioned last Friday - with couple days of highs struggling to get outta the 40's / widespread freezing across TX by this morn - appears close... Here yesterday, temp fell from 50's at midnight, stayed into 40's, windy and raw with cold rain shwrs / drzl, nasty overcast / overrunning conditions... And about par for course, minimal rain amts near 3/10ths" locally... (Sat: .02", Sun: none, Mon: .13", Tue: .28")...

Dipped to 37 between 8-9 AM at KHUM with clearing skies / strong but shallow-layered arctic CAA underway, slow rising into 40's now, might touch L 50's... but expecting a fast fall-off tonight, feeling a high confidence will see 1st actual light freeze tomorrow morn for coldest yet, mod-hard farther N portions... Earlier KLIX forecast had that low pegged at 35F (still saying that on TWC), latest from KLIX NWS now forecasting "low 30's" for Houma - Bayou Cane and I'll predict lower, expect to see near 29-30F at KHUM and my home thermo, and a colder temp reading would be less surprise than warmer... possibly with another frost, wind-moisture dependent - have observed 5 frosts so far this season... Unlike KLIX, KLCH forecasters are on the ball in posting hard and light freeze warnings across the SW / S Cen LA area...

Nice cool stretch of below avg temps ahead, reinforcing shot Fri, slow moderating warm-up into next week... and milder pattern might prevail going into Christmas... But overall, think December temps here likely to avg near normal, with equal chance of being slightly below or above... Rainfall amts? LOL...

Local November 2011 rainfall continued the overall dry trend - amts from 1.3" to near 1 3/4" from my 2 locations yielded about 3" deficit of the 4.55" November mean... Year to Date amts still running near 10" deficit locally... while Nov temps averaged within 1 degree range of normal.


SE LA obs 11-11-11 - 1st Frost...

Fri Nov 11 2011 - Happy TGIF and cool wx Veterans Day greetings...

Yeah, been a while... sorry to close the last blog abruptly but duties called, and remain far too busy to blog much, so just popping in to add a note or two here on our triple numeral date "11-11-11", Veterans Day... Nope, nothing much to report lately in local weather other than been stable, cool and nice, no earthquakes, tornadoes, floods, blizzardcanes, or subtropical storms here, and hardly any rainfall (no surprise), however that may change as slightly better rain chances appear possible over next week or so, and temps trend warmer...

Like it's been most of year, still well-entrenched in long-term drought conditions that quickly resumed as TS Lee departed early September... In fact, our typically dry October was even farther below average as only had a single rain day entire month when 1/4" to half inch amt fell locally on Oct 28 (.39" home gauge)... Probably one of the top 5 driest on record, but who knows since official records are no longer being maintained for Houma... So we're still sharing the regional dry misery with Texas and likely will continue for some time given the unfavorable long-term climate influences causing this - the warm AMO / cool PDO again combining with returning La Nina, although some short-term relief is possible for our region... Not an encouraging outlook ahead is it? IMHO, I see plenty evidence this pattern has more than less ruled since the AMO switched to it's warm phase in the 90's in how it's affected the usually wet immediate N Gulf coast region... Sadly, our pecan trees suffered badly from 2011's terrible drought as nearly all failed to produce any viable nuts (and now reflected at the grocery with bags selling near 10 bucks a pound!)... Lot of veggie crops were miserable failures, although have managed to get some local citrus - a bit smaller but still delicious satsumas and naval oranges... Only got a few of our Tamopan persimmons after discovering an unusual scoundrel was rapidly stealing them - nope, not the typical raccoon, deer, possom or birds might expect, but of all things never thought I'd see - a dang coyote! Guess he wanted something sweet to go with the rabbits, the coyote was able to climb a low limb to reach fruit above, unreal... Harvested the remaining dozen or less early before he cleaned 'em all! LOL, next year gonna hang water-filled orange balloons from the branches to thwart him... or offer him same fate as da cottonmouths got...!

On the bright side, temps have been very pleasant as Fall wx set in early this year - temperature data from CPC shows SE LA being 3-5 degrees cooler than average for both Sep / Oct... Notably on Oct 20 - and very early for such - Houma KHUM airport recorded 39F low and actually saw evidence of frost trying to form on a few roofs (not enough to call) that morn, certainly colder locations on the Northshore had frost that early date (with today likely being their 3rd)... The cool trend has continued into November up to this point - up to 5-9 degrees colder than typical across SE LA, although milder / more moist wx pattern appears developing, perhaps into Thanksgiving week if to believe recent GFS runs keeping colder air bottled up north...

Anyhow, was a beautiful Winter-like feel and view this "11-11-11" morn as confirmed our 1st widespread frost of season, rather light-moderate in crystal growth / thickness but full coverage... Low temp at Houma's KHUM fell to 32F (37F at home) for coldest yet, while some colder stations above also recorded their 1st light freeze (i.e. - 30 @ Slidell, 29 @ Tallulah in NE LA)... Alas, upper trough lifting out (and ripping STS / TS Sean out away from Bermuda), milder ridging to rebuild some as moderating zonal flow pattern takes hold...

Gotta run...
Happy TGIF and in honor of all our armed forces vets, a big Thank you!

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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Good ol' code...
There's an UUUUGLY looking storm band rolling towards you. I'm blowing holy smoke your way from my Salem Lights. Yeah, they're light, but I'm blowin' real hard to keep it away from Houma!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
193. code1
Shaking a Seminole medicine bag for yas!
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Hang on, Doc!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

Good to see everybody here. please add Finn to the low baritone and percussion section 8-D
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Hey Doc,
I'll sing in the chorus. They let me do that if I just move my mouth and pretend to be making sweet musical sounds. Gams, Bug, Shore and Me, surely we are thinking of you and your family and hoping for the best, knowing you have been probably doing a lot a work to make it that way.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
What's storm prep without a little music? Eventually you'll have a minute to listen. Everybody's gotta stop to eat sometime.

Just heard that Doc was on TWC talking about two eyewalls. That's a new one on me - replacement, sure, but two? Well, this storm's been weird from the beginning.

I know you'll stay safe, but I'll say it anyway. ;)

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Hi Doc, My Leo/Snake/Bro,

Sure hope you are NOT home about now as Isaac is on your front door knocking to come on in.

I got 12 1/2" of rain from him on the "nasty side" but you are right in his bulls eye.

Just wanted to let you know I am thinking about you.

Good luck to you and your family.

Stay safe.

Gams, your Leo/Snake/Sis

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Hot beer sucks.

I know. I drank enough of it after Hugo.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
I know we're probably talking to ourselves in here, 'cause you've got pressing matters to attend to, but just want you to know that you're on our minds and we're hoping and praying you come through this time without too many problems.

Hope you sent Mom inland to a safer spot.

If you don't get someone's phone number, give your's to someone. Otherwise we'll have no way of knowing if you need a cold beer delivery later on or not.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
185. Bogon
Gotta say that Houma would not be high on my list of places to be this week... unless Shore's plan to chivvy Isaac farther west works. He might do alright flying over the King Ranch on his way toward Pecos River country.

Take care, Doc.
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Doc .. hoping you and all others somehow escape the surge and winds ..

Stay safe !!!
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183. OGal

Hi Doc been thinking about you ever since the latest Isaac move. Just watched Dr. Jeff on TWC. He did a good job. Guess he is going to hang around for awhile. We are just beginning to get the rain bands but nothing bad. Just heard your Gov is going to have a press conference in a little while.

My son is a news producer at Fox 13 in Tampa. They are all about ready to lose their minds. Storm + Republicans = misery. His work schedule has been horrible and they are on a 12 on 12 off schedule. No one is happy.

Hope Isaac is kind to you but I agree with Bug. Keep us posted even if you have to text someone. Just heard from Dr. Jeff this storm can dig up all the oil on the bottom of the GOM......not good.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Hail, hail, the gang's all here! Hi, huri! Finn & Bug, too!

Doc, can you feel all the supportive vibes heading your way? Maybe we can recurve that baby to... well, the King Ranch here in Texas would be ok. The cows don't really dig hurricanes, but they survive, and there's not much of anyone else out there to be bothered. All it would take is a 35-40 degree change in direction.

I rather like Finn's attitude.

$h*Tg@dd#m%*df*@#n$h*T !!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Hello WuBaBrotha.
Ditto Fin and Bug.
Sorry you are having to go through all that goes with preping for Big I. I suppose nothin's gonna stop it from coming in somewhere and affecting someone we know and care about from Wunderland.
Fare well friend.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Ditto Bug and thanks for permission... $h*Tg@dd#m%*df*@#n$h*T

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
If you check back here, for God's sake, please get someone's phone number or something, so you can get word out and let us know that you're OK, once the power goes. Which I'm sure it will, considering Isaac's size, forecasted intensity and track.

I was worried silly last time. We didn't know how you were for weeks, though I know you had more pressing matters to attend to, than getting word to WU.

Will be crossing my fingers, though I know that probably ain't gonna help much.

Finn, you can say that again.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Hiya Shore,
Was on Dr Jeff's earlier...
Mom's doing fine, thanks! Hmmm, but with latest trend - and latest 00Z GFS now putting Isaac on top of us within 3 days, well... A LOT of things to deal with in a very short time now! Doubt I'll be on here much after tonight if forecast continues to look as bad by tomorrow morning - we're left with a very short time for quick preps and crucial decisions, far less than adequate... Seems a familiar story, somewhat hauntingly to past experiences...

Yep, all regional NWS offices releasing special soundings, incl Norman - they're looking at the weak trof over Rockies coming across and also the W / Cen US ridge, layer winds / pressure patterns, etc... A rebuilding Atl ridge overruling both of those two features is not my friend! Very complex steering issues to evolve, the previous E trof helped nudge the Atl ridge EWD / forcing Isaac's NW turn, and that trof also spun off a mid-upper low that's dropped over E Gulf / W Carib - it's also affecting Issac currently (some dry air / some shear possibly, distorted / elongated anti-cyclone aloft over Isaac) With Isaac between those features, primarily what's steering it now... BUT the mid-ULL will weaken / shift W or SW, conditions will become more favorable for further development, and Atl ridge configuration noses more influentially WWD - previous thoughts were enough weakness would remain over E Gulf region and above, Isaac lifting essentially between the Atl ridge and W Cen CONUS ridge, then being picked up further by that next short wave trof, but real questions on strength to do so... recent alarming GFS runs see weaker S/W on it's southern extent, Atl ridge continues to rebuild across, as W CONUS ridge either retrograding more W or weaker values than the Atlantic, or the two ridges fill in / bridge across... Always an uncertain dance between these trofs / ridges with tropical cyclones. Best way to see all this evolve is observing the 500 mb charts / forecast.

LOL on taking time to rest, I wish, none for the weary!

And my oh my, 20 years ago was getting blasted by peak winds from Cat 4 Andrew this very moment, overnight Aug 25th-26th '92... I hear it, feel it, see it, smell it, can taste the salty rain, still so fresh the memory and painful aftermath... Sheeesh... anxiety and anguish repeated several times since, with more to come! Such it is...

Guess better try get what will be much needed sleep.
G'night Shore, take care!
And to all, safe wishes.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Evening, Doc,

I knew you'd be watching that westward "lean". I just can't get my mind around the GFS and ECMWF switching places. This has been something to watch, and I have a feeling we're not done with the "somethings" yet.

I did notice today that even up in Norman they were releasing extra weather balloons to help with tracking. I couldn't figure that out at first, but finally decided they're trying to get a better fix on the high pressure system that's supposed to be building in - or not. If I've got it right, if the ridge builds in, Isaac heads more west. Yes?

Well, nothing to do now but wait. How's your Mama doing, by the way? Well, I hope. I was thinking about mine today. I sure do miss her, but I'll also admit my anxiety level about these 'canes is much lower now that I don't have to (1) persuade her we do need to leave, and (2) get her to actually move. LOL

I think it's about time you take off your working shoes if you haven't, and get some rest. All this model tracking can wear a person out. ;)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Hiya Bug,
Yeah, don't think you will see too much from Isaac... Had another 1-2" across our area yesterday, my rain totals for month and year are getting extreme - at my home at B Cane: 9.65" M / 66.11" YTD...

Gotta say, my fears of Isaac's potential have risen tremendously with the last 12Z GFS should anything close to it's depiction verify... And have recognized such could occur all along... not happy but no big surprise on it's westward shift, but most notably causing "Oh My God" moments for past hour looking at expanding size / incredible deepening it now indicates possible... and seeing nothing that could hinder it by that point in time... Very large, major hurricane slamming into Mobile midday Wednesday, as big as Ivan / Katrina (perhaps worse than Frederick '79)... with an enormous wind field capable of damage from S Cen LA to all FL panhandle, and a surge potential equal to any other... Just horrifying... And I haven't even had the nerve to analyze it from the High Resolution GFS version I often use yet...

Who knows, the track of such could and likely will shift either way beyond 36 hrs... Guarantee, more of LA will be back in the cone next advisory... I truly believe, regardless of scientific advances, in many cases, we will NEVER be able to accurately and satisfactorily define many a forecast beyond 4-5 day period! Hell, by the 3 days residents need remains sketchy, as we've seen... Same old issue with many locations needing 3 days fully to implement an evac, officials / residents having to make uncertain decisions, etc...

Sheesh, am embarrassed to admit hard to focus now on S FL's impact that we fully know is upcoming tomorrow - that's sure to be quite an event even with a Cat 1.

Oh - and today / tonight is OUR 20th anniversary of being struck / devastated by Hurricane Andrew, during the "forgotten landfall"... but I'll never forget what experienced in the NE quad with it's center 38 miles to my SW while at Cat 4 intensity... and the painful aftermath...

Oh well, got things to do...
Gotta take off my amateur meteorologist hat, put on da working shoes! If trend with Isaac continues, I won't be here blogging either, with all personal concerns taking precedent...

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Hi, Doc.

The paper this a.m. said SC would likely see a couple of inches of rain early next week but, so far, that's the extent of Isaac's expected impacts for us.

Still watching and keeping the fingers crossed. Got too many friends in The Cone.

We're having a break from the rain this weekend. I almost didn't recognize that yellow thing in the sky!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Hey Finn!

Hmmmm... and the 12Z ECMWF notably west of 12Z GFS, but not quite a "wild west" run... appears taking Isaac NW with landfall near MS-AL border, or on MS coast...

Oh and locally, after couple relatively "dry" days with only w scat tstms - tstms are again blowing up over my area... just what I needed more g*#%d*#$ rain to add to my drenched totals, thoroughly waterlogged soils...

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Fri Aug 24
And G'day all,

TS Isaac getting better organized today as approaches Haiti, as appears it's finally elected one LLC out of the many candidates it's had past two days... Recent couple frames sat imagery shows convection building around eastern half of the LLC, now a 60 mph TS... slow, steady strengthening expected as generally moves NW, with jog motions of N to W perhaps in some stairstep fashion due to the huge mass on it's S side... Should graze across Haiti's mountainous, but slim spine of a peninsula... Then deal with E Cuba's rough terrain, however Isaac has too well an organized / strong mid level circ - at heights of 10K to 20K ft - for it to be disrupted for more than a short period, as highest peaks it's core may negotiate are generally below 7K ft...

Still unsure how much yesterday's NOAA jet upper analysis sampling has increased model output accuracy (esp beyond 3 days), which was available by the GFS 06Z cycle, not sure if the 0Z ECMWF had ingested the data, but next 12Z by 2 PM should... Also, many NWS offices region-wide are releasing special soundings, and expect that to continue / help resolve forecast.
No surprise is it for today's model tracks to swing back more EWD - lol, last night's 0Z euro again shifted 500 miles EWD back from TX-LA border to near FL-AL border... while past 3 GFS runs also EWD, in fact the 06Z track run looks almost identical to my consensus scenario I posted yesterday morn, comment #159... Certain the recent 12Z has many S Floridians a bit stunned, not what wanna see... And I also have to question it's timing, and more rapid, almost NNW track with less Cuba interaction, bringing Isaac into S / SE FL by late aftn on Sunday, waaaay faster than any previous, so... we'll see... But, deeper trof over SE US is clearly nudging the Atl ridge, and the GFS model keeps the pathway of weakness to NNW open with Isaac passing between Atl ridge and W CONUS ridge... Just to add, from what I could tell on the ECMWF's "wild west runs" - may have been overblowing the rebuilding Atl ridge while failing to depict the strength of the W CONUS ridge, which even on it's westernmost runs, the GFS at least had better depicted... but, again - subject to change as we know too well! Yep, that lovely dance we go thru every Aug-Sep with the interplay between the Atlantic ridge, a CONUS trof (or ULL), and a CONUS ridge...

Needless to say, all in da cone need stay on alert for action... Also, since large sect E FL was removed recently from within the cone, might be important to re-state that does not mean impacts will be lessened - very significant impact is still expected across FL, esp S half at the least! LOL, what the heck, just talking out loud, any friends here reading this know the drill...

Just to add something noticed while looking for any hindrances for Isaac if gets over E Gulf, to hold intensification in check, via Hi Res GFS layer analysis... So just some speculation, IMHO... I think we all know what favorable conditions are there with SST's / heat content (mentioned ad nauseum on Dr Jeff's blog comments, lol)... And while may be a bit more on the western perimeter of it's anti-cyclone aloft near that time, still not unfavorable, if anything that's the one quad (w southerly flow aloft) as long as shear isn't too high, ventilation remains well enhanced..

The obvious would be some frictional, but minimal land interaction if tracks more over W FL, and it's very large size / circulation, which could either be an asset for deep development or a limiting influence.. Again, looking at mid-upper features - for one, an ULL may exist by then over W Cen Gulf, co-existing to west of Isaac's anti-cyclone ULH... Perhaps in tandem, those upper features may increase SLY shear, but equally, may not have shearing effect, but that MIGHT reintroduce dry air entrainment to some degree, and that seems possible given Isaac's large circulation... Present modeling shows this period would be aprox while Isaac is tracking up or offshore W FL... the not so good view is, shows Isaac might be able to mix it out about / within 12 hrs as approaches that currently modeled "near-Appalachicola" landfall... Not so good also, right now, don't see any significant vertical vortex alignment issues (other than temporary Antilles mountain interaction) during Isaac's modeled trek...

Okay, really rambling on here with speculation that may not come into realm of reality at all, lol...
Stay focused, stay safe!
Gotta run,
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
.. and we keep checking your updates....
Wishing you all on the N Gulf coast a weak storm and the best possible point for landfall - With prayers to all on Isaac's path.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Hey Code!

Great to hear from ya gal, hope all is well!
Ain't that the truth, some nice less-populated, desolate location somewhere along MX coast would be ideal, but... dang it looks so worrisome - esp with so many model runs targeting a final landfall in panhandle, I know it's got you uneasy - and most all have shifted back more EWD than yesterday... Such a big-ass storm at that, I just hope it's large size makes it harder to reign all that energy into a major blow-up, it's gonna be bad enough with widespread effects if simply remains a Cat 1...
I'm continuing to monitor / analyze data as time allows...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
169. code1
My mantra....go west young man, even leave the cows alone!
Thx Doc, wish safe passage as well to all!
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Hey Finn, Bug, Wabit!
And Finn, thanks, you are a very kind soul!

Well the Isaac forecast up to this point had at least a med degree of confidence, but know all too well - highly subject to change... 12Z ECMWF took a major 500 mile shift WWD toward TX-LA border from previous, and now the 18Z GFS introduces another big uncertainty to the mix... stalling off Tampa / shifting track WWD... Clearly both models see the trof lifting / ridge rebuilding, but where happens / how steers Isaac can not be determined.

Bet I'm not alone in saying - right now, near 6 PM Thu aftn, I have absolutely no confidence to even begin offering a believable outlook, esp beyond 72 hrs... Hopefully the NOAA jet upper analysis recon / input will help by tomorrow morn's model cycles... but still thinking more time - a luxury fast disappearing - needed to watch all evolve, not to mention short-term uncertainties ongoing in it's development. I wouldn't even put Isaac doing a loop over the Gulf, or even shifting SW toward MX out of the realm of possibilities! Or, lol, pulling a back / forth Elena (1985) imitation...

Meanwhile, work and much more than originally planned awaits...
Later folks!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Doc .. models taking Isaac further west into the gulf ... not liking this one ... gulf waters ripe for a strong storm !!!
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Great minds think alike, Doc. Those are the two model runs I watch the most, anyway.

Hi, Finn!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Wonderful to see you {{{Doc}}} and really appreciate your warnings for us in FL, they are certainly in place - coming from a 'mind is in pieces'. I hope dat puzzle arranges itself and peace comes :)

Yes, we are well prepared, thanks to people like you. I can never thank WU enough... Imagine a Finn, who didn't know the difference between a super cell, dust devil, a tornado or a cane, who had only seen a typhoon in -74 or -75 in Taiwan (and never forgets the fear), moving to FL! I was guided to this wunderful place right after my arrival. I read all your comments & analysis and don't give a rats a$$ if your main blog entry is updated or not.

Hope you'll stay safe with Isaac and the rest of this season, and that your life comes together quickly to enjoy it with your mom and you little zoo in da swamps.

I love you lots - though I haven't met you yet, la-la-la-laa-laa-laa :) Mehopes someday somewhere Jamie and I can meet you and have a wonderful lunch or dinner together without any cottonmouths lurking around :D

Hi shore, hi Bug!

PS. We are closer than Levi (wink wink) and it won't be too bad here, because we are well prepared, just the drive will be bumpy (or wavy for the canoe) if you can get through!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
LOL Bug!
That's a risk I do realize... or perhaps just wait as Isaac might wanna clean me out yet!

Sheeesh, any more WWD trends and I'm gonna call Levi, see if he has room to spare in Alaska... ;)
But WWD trend seems a lot more likely, than say an EWD shift or any track up E FL coast, just based on reasoning of storm size, present location / movement, best estimate of ridge / trof pattern interplay beyond 3-4 days and momentum of such a system... And edit / add, GFS shifts W / ECMWF shifts E, much closer model agreement today with better refinement by tomorrow... Only need watch those two models - curious to see what today's 12Z euro will show by 2 PM release...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Iffen you ain't interested, us womenfolk might get in heah and clean this place out. Be keerful; you might get mistaken for a pile of old rags and get thrown out the door!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
And just like that, the 12Z GFS does shift farther WWD, esp in day 4-5 to 6 range and moving a lil slower toward landfall, now indicated W of Appalachicola, closer to Panama City, between there and Pensacola... just have to keep abreast, warily watch the trends... Something about that magical 140 mile track shift WWD from the NHC by the Friday 5 PM advisory, 60-72 hrs before Katrina hit is still fresh on my mind!

And I'm adding a few things to my to-do list today now...

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Howdy Miss Shore!
Great to see ya! Yeah, made another trip around the sun, successfully, lol...

Ahh, my comments on Isaac, just best guesstimate and the obvious as it stands now... lol, no really deep analysis offered, although have spent considerable time this week with it...

Hope ya been well, friend!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Doc! Hiya! Late b'day wishes, and good to see you. Sorry to hear about those aches and pains - we're getting to the stage of life where they're about inevitable.

Back to read what you have to say re: Isaac now - just wanted to see if I could catch you before you departed. ;)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Thu Aug 23 2012...

At least some hope with the fronts coming across, cooler w better rain chances, but yeah.. too late to help this year's crops much up your way. Meanwhile way too much rain here, another deluge last weekend - my yearly total now up to 65.03" !!! Passed up the expected avg for entire year on Aug 18th... AND the cold front was actually noticeable - really delightful feel this morn w low down to 68F, our 4th morn w up 60's low past 5 days... Apparently also set record low max on Sun, never got outta the mid-70's... And overall been a very easy summer in my location, other than excessive rain aggravation and typical high humidity, temps have peaked up 80's / near 90F - haven't had a mid-90 reading since June... think our highest all summer was 96F, so...

So true, the fear of heart attack almost caused one, lol! Indeed, I gotta hang around long enough at least to reach the Mayan end date... ;)

Hey Finn!
Big (((hugs))) back atcha!
Hmmmmm... Hard to attain peace of mind with my mind in pieces, lol!

Seriously now - I know you're watching Isaac, and should! And what I'll say here is in consideration to ALL my friends across FL... Isaac is so large it's gonna affect everyone in FL, with worst affecting Keys / S and SW FL up W FL coast, and hope all are doing pre-preps to full preparation, etc... Weather will go steadily downhill for S FL by late Sun with rain bands / incr winds... As I see it currently - Isaac should intensify to very large Cat 1 after coming off Cuba, move over the Cen Keys between midnight-dawn Mon morn... then my best guess per consensus of several GFS cycle solutions is either scrape right along W FL coastline, or for it to be no farther west than about 60-100 miles off the W FL coast, tracking generally quite parallel, and may further intensify to a very large Cat 2 as lifts up if the expected-to-deepen core stays over E Gulf... Almost Ike-like in it's size, so... Hard to say which of those two scenarios is worse, if pans out, but either is potentially devastating for entire W FL coast - slightly offshore and waves / surge will attain greater energy, build much higher... And - based on present track / storm size expectations - it's large size would indicate E FL will see very notable impacts of rip currents, beach erosion, possible sustained TS force winds, tornado threats in squalls, rain-induced flooding, etc...

Needless to say as quite obvious, but will repeat what most sensible observers see - Isaac poses an extremely serious threat to Florida, regardless of exact track... unless it moves a LOT farther west as some of past ECMWF model runs suggested, which a day or two ago had Isaac as a major hurricane slamming S LA, but has since been shifting EWD closer toward the GFS solution that I believe will prove the more accurate guidance -- even right now, should one choose middle of those two best models, eventual landfall would be about Panama City... Right now I'm leaning more toward landfall being farther east, my early guesstimate of a swath between, say, from near E half of Appalachicola (Appalachee Bay) and near Cedar Keys...

And just for the record - here in SE LA, I'm still eyeing Isaac cautiously, ever-mindful that all is subject to change, esp with a large / expansive system, nothing written in stone till it's done... and have been thinking thru preps, supplies, possible plans and actions need to take... just in case... So I do hope everyone in FL is taking this threat very seriously... The notion of "several days away before we need worry" has passed - The next 3-4 days will fly by faster than many can get their sh*t together for it! And if I'm to be totally honest, I'd probably include myself with the multiple concerns that seem too many to completely address, lol...

Anyway, just FWIW, IMHO... as realize I'm posting in a dead blog... and ain't got the time or interest in doing another...

Best wishes to all in path of Isaac.
This "I" storm will likely also be retired after it blows thru, sheeesh, just the high-probability of what it's disastrous impact might be for Haiti might be enough to warrant.

We shall see.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
{{{{{{{{Doc}}}}}}} ~~~ ♥ ♥ ♥ ~~~

A BiiiiiG hug to make up for the really really belated happy birthday wishes - lets make this an early one for next year! LoL
May you celebrate dozens more with health, happiness and and peace of mind. And may we be connected to celebrate them with you :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Good Lord, Doc...

I'm surprised you didn't have a real heart attack the first few times you experienced that precordial catch syndrome attack.

Just because the 'catches' mimic the symptoms of a heart attack, don't get too complacent. We'd like to keep you around for a while!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Doc .. Yes is sad to look at the field crops up here ... yields down 35-40% or more around me further south is much worse.. there are big cracks in the soil that is now worrying the farmers ... there is no moisture at all in the topsoil down to several feet .. If we don't get the moisture back into the ground by next year .. it will be a poor year again for the farmers ...

Tree cutters will be busy as trees die over the next couple of years due to the drought ...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
and Wabit!
Yes sir, your's is coming up soon too!

Been thinking of ya, knowing how miserable a situation the heat / drought has been across Midwest... Know it's not been nearly enough, but glad to see some rain / cool front has offered a lil relief past week or so...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Hiya Karen,
Well a pleasure to see ya stop by, and thanks!
LOL, perhaps we should describe ourselves as having robust, august tendencies... that'll cover the astrological span...

Ahh, given my infrequency on WU outside of commenting on Jeff's blog here / there... and rather than being belated in my greetings as was with Miss Ogal, I'll offer an early - Happy Birthday Karen!
Best wishes my friend!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Doc have a Happy One !!! Your sneaking in just before mine the last of the month ...

Seems to be a lot of birthdays in August ... Must be all those cold December nites ... :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I understand birthday wishes are in order for you....so Happy Birthday! I'm not too far behind you...the 24th. Of course that makes me a Virgo, not a Leo, although I believe I do have some Leo tendencies!

Have a good one!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
151. DocNDswamp
6:06 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
Yeah the Perseids usually are a disappointment to me, got lucky to catch that one... skies usually clear off at night for them, but mosquitoes take the fun out of it... LOL, my viewing sessions typically last as long as my cigarette burns, but don't tell anyone I admit that!

Yep, rotator cuff is likely culprit... very active physically all my life too, goes with the territory.

Let me tell ya - finally identified / discovered a few months ago I unfortunately am one of a few adults that suffers with a condition called "precordial catch syndrome".. happens infrequently, had it hit me time to time since around the '80's, but recent years been more often occurrence... a very sharp L side chest pain hits out of nowhere, usually at night while at rest, but scares the hell outta ya as 1st thought is a heart attack! Best describe as feeling like a "charley horse" across the L chest, and probably similar as appears muscle issue... When hits, hard to take any deep breath, but if can enough to cough a few times, helps clear it... Worse thing is the instant anxiety from the pain and scare, afraid was close to dying, but.. it passes, sometimes left with temporary soreness, and does last longer than typically described with me... LOL, and I didn't go to doctor to discover what I had - think I googled "L side chest pain" or similar - but quite more at ease knowing it's not particularly dangerous, just odd and very uncomfortable... after so many episodes / living thru it, NOW I'm less worried when happens - one of the last times it hit, I simply defied the pain, stretched out my arms / chest and could hear / feel like a "pop", so clearly within the chest muscles...
Guess could say "just my bad luck" to be one of a few with this weirdness, but overall considering what it's not, I am lucky!

Okay, just waiting the rain to pass...
then on my way...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
150. palmettobug53
5:10 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
No Persieds for me. Much too cloudy and way too much light pollution and trees.

At the time of night when I should be driving out to deserted, dark areas for optimal viewing, I'm dead to the world, making more horrible noises.




I did something to my R rotator cuff some years back. Just what, I dunno. Reckless mousing on line?

It wasn't too bad and my doctor gave me some exercises to do. We didn't even do xrays. It feels fine, now but I can't scratch the middle of my back from that side.

Heck, I can't do it from the left side, either, these days but that's besides the point.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
149. DocNDswamp
5:01 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
Checking back...
Oh, and whoopee - I did see one single Perseid meteor last night, a good one near 1:30 AM, bright / relatively long-lasting streak in E sky, motion N to S... then I let the mosquitoes watch the rest.

Thanks a bunch, gal!
I bet you remember well that event last October I mentioned above, with your area hit by it, the last big ECMWF vs GFS conflict before TS Debbie... Spawned by the ULL over E GOM, the screaming banshee sfc low the NHC never designated as either a TS or STS system, still puzzled with that omission from the 2011 season...

Hey Bug,
LOL, on da old man grunt.... hmmmm, guess the answer is "on occasion" and "dependent how long I've sat in one spot"... ;)
But yeah, Ain't it the truth?
Heck, hardly any of them can be called "minor" aches and pains these days... Sheeesh, 'bout the time the mower failed needing repair, I began suffering with another issue of upper L arm sprain, or rotator cuff... spread over entire shoulder / back, etc, got so debilitating couldn't do much for several weeks of July, getting farther behind in work, more frustration, blah, blah, blah... LOL, couldn't even hold the guitar a short while.. Slowly, but surely getting better, but dang - went thru same thing with R arm couple years ago... Oh well, at least I still have excellent mental health (LOL!) - hey, that's what I told the examiner when got my driver's license renewed other day! ;)
Best wishes atcha, m'friend!

Hmmm, weatherwise... no surprise, set your watch by it - cumulus building, 1st distant rumble thunder, typical daily rain shwrs developing, temps barely get chance to reach upper 80's / near 90F... a very wet but not abnormal summer pattern in SE LA...

Work calls...
Take care all!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
148. Skyepony (Mod)
4:10 AM GMT on August 13, 2012
Happy Birthday!!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
147. palmettobug53
11:01 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Happy Birthday, Doc! I was just thinking about you the other day.

59? Ah, you and Gams are just young'uns yet.

I know what you mean about the bod not staying as youthful as we feel in our heads. I set out to do things that I never thought twice about, such as yardwork, and find myself creaking and groaning, heaving and wheezing in no time, when I used to be able go for hours.

Have you started to do that Old Man Grunt, when getting out of your easy chair or recliner?

I don't know how long I was doing the Old Lady Grunt before I caught myself doing it one day.

"Nooooooooooo! I'm not old enough to be doing the Old Lady Grunt!"

I'm not even going into all the other sounds I've been making this past few years. Horrible ones!

Then there's all the strange aches, pains and twinges.

Anyhoo, hope you enjoy the new gee-tar.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
146. DocNDswamp
7:09 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Darn, now why would anyone be posting on this dusty, creaky old blog?

LOL, yes.. survived another year...
Thanks for the b'day greetings, (((friends)))!

Hi Gams,
Wow, I know... "59" sure sounds astronomical, bout right for some issues having lately with my body that refuses to keep pace with my younger 25 yo mind! BTW - appreciate your response in Jeff's blog other day, he had a new blog up by time I read it... Take care, and I'll do my part see how dis 59 stuff works out for us... ;)

Hey SJ,
Happy Birthday back atcha, bro!
Wow, you're still able to party? ;)
Glad it's been an enjoyable weekend for ya!

Hiya Ogal,
Thanks m'friend!
And belated Happy Birthday Greetings to you as well! (guess that shows how little I'm on WU these days, other than occasional comment on Dr Jeff's)
Very nice salsa b'day tune... fits well after tracking Ernesto across Mexico last week, still fresh on da mind. LOL, hey what's FB? Guess I'm just too anti-social... ;)

And previous comments had no idea were here -
Barefoot, Finn and Gams, thanks!

Thanks, yes only post on Jeff's these days it seems... otherwise you know the deal, busy life away from da internet.
Sure hope the heat wave shifts away from your area after what ya been thru there, good grief what a terrible, widespread event... Just the opposite here, as might expect - absolutely sick of daily rain, and it's raining now!!! Thru yesterday my yearly tally has reached 58.25" - just 4" away from yearly normal total... On the plus side, temps near to below normal, unlike large sect of US... and guess what - I researched, found 1936 here was same pattern, wet / cooler while Midwest / Plains baked under historic heat / drought... nothing unprecedented, lol... PS / UPDATE: well that just added another .78" to the total - my YTD tally now matches my age - over 59!!! ;)
Take care!

Hope you are well!
LOL, Debbie was a difficult track?
Not for me, I ALWAYS side with the model that's truly the most accurate, the GFS!!! ... I've never seen evidence of ECMWF model superiority, regardless how much it's been claimed, and in fact can provide numerous instances just the opposite has proven true... Anyhow, whether I blog on it or not, you know I was closely following situation... and laughed at the TS warning SE LA placed under, I KNEW Debbie would be a Florida storm - guess the NWS / NHC / HPC have a very short memory / failed to learn a lesson as they did same thing last October 8-9, with every NWS forecast office locked into / accepting the faulty forecast from the ECMWF over the GFS, the last time we had such a huge conflict between the two models --- that was with the never-named / undeclared subtropical low the GFS insisted would form over Bahamas, strike E FL, just as happened, while euro model kept forecasting a low would form E Gulf, hit W FL... Guess they like egg on their faces, lol! But that's the folly involved when an assumption of superiority was clearly behind their decision...


Oh well... no rest for da old codger here, last few weeks in process of rebuilding a heavily abused worn-out tractor mower... while grass grows profusely in daily rains, laughing at my temporarily inept, broke-down situation... Off to find more tools / supplies, it's another work day for me.

Oh, and guess I've gotten more like Mr Subtropic - heavily back into playing my guitar more than on internet... that is when not browsing ebay buying more - added 2 more beautifully sweet-sounding vintage Alvarez Yairi acoustic guitars to my collection in past months... The last was a B'day present to self, lol... Oh my, look what's being offered on ebay now, it's another nice, uh...
Later folks!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
145. OGal
2:30 PM GMT on August 12, 2012

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
144. OGal
2:28 PM GMT on August 12, 2012

HAPPY BIRTHDAY DOC, guess I have been hanging out on FB too much. Hope you have a very special fun day.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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