SE LA obs Jan 3 2012... Short-lived arctic chill...

By: DocNDswamp , 4:47 PM GMT on November 11, 2011

Latest W Atlantic Basin AVN / IR Satellite Image...

W Atlantic Basin AVN Satellite Image


(No comprehensive update or review of 2011 stats yet, but needed to change the header to "something" more recent... which of course will be outdated soon, lol... As usual, updated info can be found within comments section)...


Wed Jan 4 2012, SE LA Wx...

Expected warm up underway today with incr SE winds / humidity / dewpoints... Big contrast from yesterday when had amazingly low dewpoints across SE LA down to single digits many locations - one of the lowest was Slidell, had 2F dewpoint temp at 1 PM! Cold remained entrenched overnight, clear skies / light to calm winds, good radiational cooling lead to my 3rd light freeze of season and 10th frost, which was very thick... Temps fell quickly after sunset, this morn KHUM was colder showing a 28.4F low (but is really a range between 28.4F to 30.2F since it only reads whole degrees celsius), while my home thermo refused to drop below 31.5F, which I am certain can be attributed to massive urbanization / land-use change / habitat destruction surrounding my Bayou Cane, LA location above Houma...

Rather than compare to KHUM airport, a better comparison of this drastic temp difference is between readings at our Gray LA location, just 6-7 miles N of Bayou Cane, and to this point is still a truly rural setting in North Terrebonne (but not for long!)... Prior to excessive development in Bayou Cane, these two locations physical topography, lay of the land with mix of woods / adjacent open fields and no immediate proximity to a waterbody were identical... Last night was a good example of distinct changes that have been wrought - by the time I left there at 9 PM the Gray thermo was already trending below 30F, frost had begun covering the roof of the car and house, ice forming... Drove home within 10 minutes to find my home thermo at 39F - a full 10F higher - no signs of frost and it clearly FELT warmer regardless of whatever might nit-pick over the two thermometers accuracy!

In that matter, I'm certain the Gray thermo has a cold bias of 2-3 degrees - this morns low showed 24F - but accounting for that still reveals it's become several degrees warmer where development is altering the microscale local climate to a warmer state... It's often more noticeable on Winter nights under such conditions of calm winds / ideal radiational cooling than like wx conditions we had the previous night / morning before (Tue 3rd) - with widespread CAA and mod strong NLY winds mixing the boundary layer more homogeneously over the area and the lowest temp on both thermometers read near 30F yesterday... Nothing new of course, we've KNOWN the UHI impact for decades, guess my point is just that it's now GROWN to alter MY LOCATION noticeably over the very short timescale of a decade or two... So much for UHI being an "island", as fast as human footprint is expanding a better descriptive is needed to reflect today's reality...


Tue Jan 3 2012 greetings,

Nice seasonally cold early January day under severe-clear skies, as dome of arctic high pressure edges across our region - noted climbed to 30.61" for highest sfc pressure reading *this year*, lol... Daytime temps slow rising, now into mid-40's at noon hr...

Overnight temps were slow to fall off as the initial cold air advection with this system was rather weak by "arctic" standards, but did fall to 30.6F low on my Bayou Cane home thermo to declare my 2nd freeze of season, albeit brief duration of about 2 hrs, not enough time for ice to form in my buckets... Seems a secondary surge of cold air got here near sunrise as I reached my low after 7 AM, much like Slidell hit their low of 25F then... Of course had another "WTF? / WUWT?" moment viewing KHUM airport readings which showed it, sigh, once again, bottoming out at an even 32.0F... Thanks, but no thanks, I prefer more precise reading than the span of a whole degree celsius - will assume might have shown a 30F reading had they dropped to -1.0C / 30.2F... But such is the case with the only weather station in Houma being "not up to NWS standards", or as described here at WU - "Averages and records for this station are not official NWS values", besides having frequently sporadic reportage issues...

N winds also held the temps up overnight and that combined with very dry airmass eliminated any frost chances... May be some tomorrow morn and low temps should be close to today's as Freeze Warnings remain in effect, "might" have better rad cooling here "if" E / SE winds don't kick up with the sfc high sliding EWD... Forecasting the low temp tonight is a crap shoot and very location dependent over SE LA, as I'd agree with KLIX NWS assessment in this morn's discussion on factors - "THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT...PROXIMITY TO WATER...AND LOCAL WINDS WILL CREATE QUITE A RANGE OF LOWS...SO THE DURATION OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER A 20 MILE AREA COULD RANGE FROM 6 HOURS TO NONE."

We shall see and regardless, the moderating return flow warming trend will be underway tomorrow, some chance of shwrs Fri-Sat with next feature coming across...

Work calls, hey it's too clear / sunny to be inside... ;)


SE LA obs Dec 7 2011, coldest wx yet on 70th anniversary Pearl Harbor...

Wed Dec 7 2011... Cold, with Freeze Warnings...

70th anniversary Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor.
...a scant dozen years before I's born, us post-WWII baby-boomers are getting old!

Cold weather arrived / well-entrenched across our region... Actually the outlook mentioned last Friday - with couple days of highs struggling to get outta the 40's / widespread freezing across TX by this morn - appears close... Here yesterday, temp fell from 50's at midnight, stayed into 40's, windy and raw with cold rain shwrs / drzl, nasty overcast / overrunning conditions... And about par for course, minimal rain amts near 3/10ths" locally... (Sat: .02", Sun: none, Mon: .13", Tue: .28")...

Dipped to 37 between 8-9 AM at KHUM with clearing skies / strong but shallow-layered arctic CAA underway, slow rising into 40's now, might touch L 50's... but expecting a fast fall-off tonight, feeling a high confidence will see 1st actual light freeze tomorrow morn for coldest yet, mod-hard farther N portions... Earlier KLIX forecast had that low pegged at 35F (still saying that on TWC), latest from KLIX NWS now forecasting "low 30's" for Houma - Bayou Cane and I'll predict lower, expect to see near 29-30F at KHUM and my home thermo, and a colder temp reading would be less surprise than warmer... possibly with another frost, wind-moisture dependent - have observed 5 frosts so far this season... Unlike KLIX, KLCH forecasters are on the ball in posting hard and light freeze warnings across the SW / S Cen LA area...

Nice cool stretch of below avg temps ahead, reinforcing shot Fri, slow moderating warm-up into next week... and milder pattern might prevail going into Christmas... But overall, think December temps here likely to avg near normal, with equal chance of being slightly below or above... Rainfall amts? LOL...

Local November 2011 rainfall continued the overall dry trend - amts from 1.3" to near 1 3/4" from my 2 locations yielded about 3" deficit of the 4.55" November mean... Year to Date amts still running near 10" deficit locally... while Nov temps averaged within 1 degree range of normal.


SE LA obs 11-11-11 - 1st Frost...

Fri Nov 11 2011 - Happy TGIF and cool wx Veterans Day greetings...

Yeah, been a while... sorry to close the last blog abruptly but duties called, and remain far too busy to blog much, so just popping in to add a note or two here on our triple numeral date "11-11-11", Veterans Day... Nope, nothing much to report lately in local weather other than been stable, cool and nice, no earthquakes, tornadoes, floods, blizzardcanes, or subtropical storms here, and hardly any rainfall (no surprise), however that may change as slightly better rain chances appear possible over next week or so, and temps trend warmer...

Like it's been most of year, still well-entrenched in long-term drought conditions that quickly resumed as TS Lee departed early September... In fact, our typically dry October was even farther below average as only had a single rain day entire month when 1/4" to half inch amt fell locally on Oct 28 (.39" home gauge)... Probably one of the top 5 driest on record, but who knows since official records are no longer being maintained for Houma... So we're still sharing the regional dry misery with Texas and likely will continue for some time given the unfavorable long-term climate influences causing this - the warm AMO / cool PDO again combining with returning La Nina, although some short-term relief is possible for our region... Not an encouraging outlook ahead is it? IMHO, I see plenty evidence this pattern has more than less ruled since the AMO switched to it's warm phase in the 90's in how it's affected the usually wet immediate N Gulf coast region... Sadly, our pecan trees suffered badly from 2011's terrible drought as nearly all failed to produce any viable nuts (and now reflected at the grocery with bags selling near 10 bucks a pound!)... Lot of veggie crops were miserable failures, although have managed to get some local citrus - a bit smaller but still delicious satsumas and naval oranges... Only got a few of our Tamopan persimmons after discovering an unusual scoundrel was rapidly stealing them - nope, not the typical raccoon, deer, possom or birds might expect, but of all things never thought I'd see - a dang coyote! Guess he wanted something sweet to go with the rabbits, the coyote was able to climb a low limb to reach fruit above, unreal... Harvested the remaining dozen or less early before he cleaned 'em all! LOL, next year gonna hang water-filled orange balloons from the branches to thwart him... or offer him same fate as da cottonmouths got...!

On the bright side, temps have been very pleasant as Fall wx set in early this year - temperature data from CPC shows SE LA being 3-5 degrees cooler than average for both Sep / Oct... Notably on Oct 20 - and very early for such - Houma KHUM airport recorded 39F low and actually saw evidence of frost trying to form on a few roofs (not enough to call) that morn, certainly colder locations on the Northshore had frost that early date (with today likely being their 3rd)... The cool trend has continued into November up to this point - up to 5-9 degrees colder than typical across SE LA, although milder / more moist wx pattern appears developing, perhaps into Thanksgiving week if to believe recent GFS runs keeping colder air bottled up north...

Anyhow, was a beautiful Winter-like feel and view this "11-11-11" morn as confirmed our 1st widespread frost of season, rather light-moderate in crystal growth / thickness but full coverage... Low temp at Houma's KHUM fell to 32F (37F at home) for coldest yet, while some colder stations above also recorded their 1st light freeze (i.e. - 30 @ Slidell, 29 @ Tallulah in NE LA)... Alas, upper trough lifting out (and ripping STS / TS Sean out away from Bermuda), milder ridging to rebuild some as moderating zonal flow pattern takes hold...

Gotta run...
Happy TGIF and in honor of all our armed forces vets, a big Thank you!

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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Doc .. Stay safe down there with these storms ..

Stopping by to Wish you and yours a Very Merry Christmas and a healthy New Year !
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Hiya friends,
Well, certainly not my idea of the ideal Christmas forecast for our region with severe threats looming from SE TX spreading eastward as Winter Storm Euclid develops strong sfc low... high likelihood of severe tstms, wind damage, hail, bowing segments along the squall line, PLUS in the warm unstable air mass ahead of it, a nasty set up for development of long-lived tornadic supercells... all happening in a period of folks traveling, visiting relatives, trying enjoy the holiday. This could get real ugly...
LOL, of course, if the sfc low was tracking about 400 miles further S across the Gulf, I'd be a bit happier with sneaux prospects instead of tornadoes and damaging bow segments!

Hey Finn!
Ditto, been quite busy here lately, absent of blogging time other than quick hit / read / run at best... and as evidenced with my delayed reply, hardly think to check my own blog. Ah, glad you spoke with da Subster - yes, he must have found another guitar if he sold that one!
Best X-mas wishes to you, family and da pups!

Hiya Bug!
Ha, got a good couple laughs there... No problem, who knows if WU coding or my outdated browser would have displayed the symbols properly either, lol! Hey, determining things to purchase is an art in itself, and requires devotion of time - I'm sure your significant other trying make best with what little time is allotted for such things. At least he's decisive! Sheeesh, I dicker and ponder over stuff waaaay too much, lol!
Hope the Holiday for you and Hubby is enjoyable!

Howdy Barefoot!
Thanks for the lovely greeting and nice pic! Last couple nights while the weather been tranquil, rode around viewing local X-mas lights / decorations - made a return visit, took Mom last night to see 'em, some really elaborate, esp in Houma's more wealthy neighborhoods (like Ellendale Country Club - had several "WOW" moments!)... Hey BF, go ahead, gloat away on that snow coming - Ya know I would, and have, lol! Indeed, you're in the right place for a somewhat infrequent White Christmas ("just like the ones we used to know...")!!! Overheard TWC chat this morning on Oklahoma's usually slim chances of Christmas snows, focused on OKC's records... Truly rare that I've witnessed a White Christmas twice here ('89 / '04).
Wishing you and family a Merry Christmas, stay safe and enjoy the snow!

Okay, gotta run... time to make my annual late run for last second shopping... ;)
Best Holiday Wishes to all, but especially within our local region - safety first, please stay alert for serious threats, heed advisories! Should get the Eve festivities in tonight, but Christmas Day weather looks downright explosive...

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Hi DocNDswamp,
Another wu year coming to a close.
Maybe a White Christmas up here in OK but I won't gloat.

Hope Santa brings your heart's desire.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Hi, ho, ca va, mon ami?

Sorry about that pathetic ca va; can't do my alt key codes on this dratted laptop... There's a hidden number pad within the letter keys and the manual assumes everyone already knows how to turn it on. Also all those keys with little signs and symbols on them, along with their letters and numbers. Haven't a clue what they're for nor does the manual explain them.

Did some online research, even on the maker's website. Nada. Went to the library and checked out "Laptops for Dummies." The closest I could get to finding out how to turn on the number pad is you use the FN key and the number lock key. I don't have a number lock key and that's where I hit the brick wall.

I guess I could haul it in to Best Buy and ask one of the geeks.

Frankly, I probably wouldn't have picked this model, if I'd been the one shopping. It was Hubby. On my birthday, two years ago. He doesn't know the first thing about computers and had no idea what I'd want or not want. He also believes that the more money you spend on something, the better it is. He probably paid way more than he should have.

It scares me to death, when he goes car shopping. He doesn't dicker. He just asks 'How much?" and "Where do I sign?"

Salesmen love him.

"Hey, Fred! We've got a LIVE one here! I'm reeling him in!"

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Sub sends regards, told him you had fallen in love ;-) and he was very happy to hear from you and about the new guitar. He's well and as cool as ever, just sold his famous guitar, which was in the blog pictures with the bunny rabbit - but surely he's got many more to play with...

I don't have much time to blog these days, sorta in hibernation mode, but had to pop in to leave you lots of love and hopes for a wonderful tunes-filled Xmas to you and yours.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Howdy Miss Shore,
LOL, earlier today WU gave me the shaft... er, I mean the error message, when I was gonna respond... although later got in, posted in your blog.

Why heck you just need go up to Lufkin or Conroe to get into the coldest weather near ya, lol... I'm sure they've had as many or more frosts as I've had. But yeah, along with lack rain those fronts do shove the water levels down... Many a fisher and hunter have been stranded in such. The great Arctic Blast of Dec 1989 was about the worst I can recall of severely low tides / water levels. Nothing like that on our horizon anytime soon, in fact milder / warmer times ahead for a bit. But also some rain, which I'm sure Texas will appreciate.

Loved your photos! And I enjoy a great backlit shot too, like your furry cattail. Appears you've garnered a bit more interest from a Chamber member, so looking good! And, lol, ya know I like the possumhaw berries. Like you mentioned with the frittilary, makes ya wonder how they came up with such a name - "Hey Paw, looky at dat possum in da tree eatin' dem berries, haw!" LOL...

Nah, no Woody Guthrie type here, at best I've composed a few tunes of music, but putting words to songs ain't my forte, I'm a failure in that aspect. LOL, not sure I even qualify as a half-fast guitar player, kinda thinking if spend 2 more lifetimes at it, I'll get there!

Enjoy your evening, hope ya get some rain 'fore the next round of drought sets in!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Happy couple days after Thanksgiving, Doc! I saw your post over at the good Dr. M's - sounds like you're having some fine weather, too. No frost here yet, but plenty of fog for a couple of mornings. Now that the latest front's through, I took the time to go over to the Anahuac wildlife refuge. It was lovely, though a little short on water. Lack of rain, for one thing, but low tides, too. I heard on the outdoor show this a.m. that at least a couple fellows grounded hard trying to launch from the refuge - they were saying better to go the launches in Anahuac-the-town, Oak Island, etc.

I took some photos and have posted the best on my blog. My favorite is the backlit cattail that's in the process of losing its fluff - although I did get my first decent pic of a butterfly - a Gulf Frittilary. (I wonder if "frittilary" has the same root as "don't fritter your time away"? LOL)

That new guitar sounds like a gem. If you watch "Dustbowl" enough and ponder enough of the parallels, we might have a new Woody Guthrie on our hands! Rants and rhythm - there's a good combo!

Hope your weekend's going well. It's so lovely I'd be just as happy to be outdoors, but a few inside chores are clamoring for attention, and I've ignored them long enough. ;)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quick check in, Thanksgiving Eve...

Hi Wabit,
So true with sharp changes practically "overnight" - just this year alone here began w deficit rainfall, went to daily near-floods, then taps shut off last 2 months, lol... Surface soil dry but last few days been reaching dew point quickly at night / having light ground fog too, so helps some. Feast or famine it is with rainfall. None expected w Friday front you mentioned (Sat here), just short-term cold reinforcement.. next real chance rain on Mon-Tue w stronger front (and lil better return flow ahead of it)... Man, hope one of 'em wrings out some rain (or snow) for ya soon!
You and family enjoy a fine Thanksgiving, Wab!


Hey Bug,
LOL, now ya know having guitars are like any other assortment of tools, gotta have a full selection for the task at hand.. and I still have a lot more tools in da shed than guitars!

Yeah, you nailed it on Burns' Dust Bowl documentary, the eyewitness accounts were indeed riveting testimony to their suffering ordeals / tribulations... Come thru all that and maintained their ever-hopeful, strong-willed character, good natured salt-of-the-earth folks took it all in stride...

Guess I've known of Ken Burns since reading of him in my photo magazines years ago.

I remember the Prohibition documentary on PBS as well - and the parallels today replicated in the tragic, injust drug war which has lasted ten times longer and inflicted greater societal damage than drugs themselves ever could... Yeah, another issue I'm deeply concerned with, could rant on about, BUT not the time or place for it... LOL, "Colorado Rocky Mountain High" has whole new meaning these days! Wheeeeeee... ;)

Happy Thanksgiving to you and hubby, Bug!
And to ALL!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Happy Thanksgiving, Doc!

Hope you and yours have a wonderful day.

Good grief.. Anudder gee-tar? From the way you're rhapsodying about it, I wouldn't be surprised if you were sleeping with the thing! LOL

Sad to say, I nodded off during the second half of Burns' Part 2. Almost all the facts Burns touched on was covered in The American Experience's 2 hour film about the Dust Bowl about a year or so ago. I did find his eyewitnesses recounting of their memories of that time very compelling. I think if I'd either hadn't seen that earlier film or if it had been much longer since I'd watched it, I wouldn't have nodded off.

I do love his films. I think what makes his films so riveting is the testimony of his eyewitnesses and the actors reading from letters and diaries. They put you there, right then, when it's happening. It's not dry history. And he always seems to find little facts that make you thing, "Gee, I never knew that."

I'm looking forward to seeing his upcoming film, The Roosevelts. He's got about 6 films in the works.

I've seen The Civil War, Baseball, Jazz, The War, Prohibition and The National Parks. He's got a lot of others that either aired before I knew who he was or have somehow missed when they were on. Not all of them were aired in serial form. Some were only a couple of hours long. Like Mark Twain. I knew it was coming on but somehow missed it.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Afternoon Doc .. will be warm up here for Thanksgiving with 63 degrees forecast before dropping down to low 40's Friday and the rest of the weekend ..

We didn't have an Indian Summer this year ..

Many places would like to have some of that surplus rainfall .. we had rainfall like that last year and then the drought this year .. things can change literally overnight ..

Wishing you and yours a Happy Thanksgiving !!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Good day friends,
Milder temp trend here this Thanksgivings week, but only a slight warm-up w highs just getting back into the 70's - 45 low today after week of lows ranging mid-30's / L 40's across Houma-Thib metro... Rainfall has indeed become rare after September ended - at home gauge: .60" October, 1.11" so far November... But adding that meager 2-month total to prodigious amts previously accumulated, lol, my yearly amount stands at 80.72", way ahead of expected annual total of 62.25" (via the newer 1981-2010 climo averages)... Only parts of SE FL have recorded higher totals... Oh, and Nov will be the 7th month in row this area's monthly temperature departure has averaged at or below normal, after 1st 4 months of 2012 were above - via LOSC and CPC data...


Hey Bug,
Well honestly, my tv viewing runs the gamut on any given day / night (mirrors my internet usage, lol) but yep, been keeping up with Boardwalk Empire, sometimes Treme after (which offers lot of post-Kat NOLA reality, plus feature a LOT of LA musicians of all styles besides NOLA jazz)... Other shows in the seasonal rotation like Game of Thrones, I dunno, hasn't held my interest as much - they kill off more of the characters faster than B Empire!

But wow, once I tuned into Dust Bowl, I was glued to it, another phenomenal documentary by Ken Burns highlighting the far-reaching impact on so many levels... watched part 2 last night...

Commentary - My take on the take-away message?
There were many, including touching on the current polarized political views against fed govt involvement / funding issues and consequences - LOL, yeah let our idiot Red States secede from the USA, then watch how quickly these same republican pro-business oligarchy state / local govts run begging for federal $$$ when disaster strikes! Otherwise - Cyclical droughts are inevitable and recurring, some lessons were learned, many were forgotten given humanity's ongoing population explosion, mindlessly continuing our trampling of natural ecosystems as we plunder the landscape in expansion / urbanization. I just shake my head watching the losses mount from landuse conversion daily... Okay, sorry, I go off on rants easily over this stuff, lol, but the whole time I watched Dust Bowl, my mental imagery was rampant with usual parallels / analogues of history endlessly repeating itself...


Hiya Finn!
Darn, no tv, how do people live like that? Oh that's right... internet...
Moving on up again, eh? Hmmm, that sounds like fun... NOT! At least not the preps, disruptions involved in "getting there". Hope the transition goes more smoothly for ya in the times ahead... And yes, I also admit occasionally watching Shark Tank (Mark Cuban's a hoot wherever he appears, cool cat IMO) in the evenings at Mom's house after loss of sunlight forces me to quit working outside - rather way early now with DST gone and short Winter days...

Oh, and if ya happen to see Mr Subtropic anytime soon, well let's just say I recently bought my 3rd vintage Alvarez Yairi acoustic guitar this year!
My latest new baby, this near-mint / excellent 1990 DY-74C - just incredible handmade guitars by renowned Japanese luthier K Yairi, easily on par with the best Gibsons, Martins or Taylors in sound, build quality and ease of playability at far lower price! A wonderfully crafted fusion of sitka spruce, indian rosewood back / sides w ivory bindings, mahogany neck, a very fast and comfortable ebony fingerboard w cats'eye / snowflake pearl inlays, ebony bridge, German silver frets, bone saddle and nut... that is a joy to play and hear! Heck, it even makes me sound good... Yes, I'm in love again, lol... ;)

Okay gotta make da run to the store for Turkey Day supplies and all else requiring my attention...

Again - if I disappear a bit - best wishes, Happy Thanksgiving all!

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Hiyalls, wab, Bugsie, Skye & doc :)

Wow, oldies goodies spontaneous gathering at doc's... you made my day - NICE!!!

Zip it guys with all the TV talk... I have no time to watch anything :( We've been like gypsies moving with all stuff in boxes for 3 months. Hopefully after Thanksgiving things "fall" into place (methinks I need a magic wand for that) at the new house and I can take a day off, get a massage and watch The Shark Tank, Survivor and Person of Interest. And at least one of the 3 Blockbuster movies that have been gathering dust by the DVD for weeks.
Love to you all and may your wishes come true - and while at it - mine too! LoL
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
I lurked a bit and made a few posts in Dr. M's blog a couple of months ago for the first time in God knows when but it was about as nice as hanging out with my SMom. Walking on eggshells, for fear one little mis-speak or typo would get the irate villagers after me with the torches and pitchforks.

You must be watching Boardwalk Empire, if your Sunday nights are HBO nights. And wasn't Game of Thrones on HBO? I watched a little of Boardwalk when it first came on but somehow, I just didn't get sucked into it. Haven't even looked at Game of Thrones, though I've heard the books were good.

AMC's Walking Dead, Hell on Wheels and, on Showtime, Shameless, have me riveted on Sundays. Am waiting on PBS to start the new season of Downton Abbey. Looking forward to watching Shirly MacLaine and Maggie Smith duke it out.

Friday nights, I like Travel Channel's Dead Files. The Lizzie Borden house episode was a real eyebrow raiser! lol

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Howdy Miss Bug!

And good to see you as well. Yeah, kinda prefer this lurk / stealth mode stuff, darn personal blog just requires too much time / responsibility, lol... But I do post somewhat frequently my usual weather-related comments on Dr Jeff's blog when I feel the need arises... ;)

Ahh yep, saw you folks were stuck in a cloudy / rainy pattern, sure messes up any meteor or other night sky observation chances... Been a huge pattern shift for us, very dry is the word now, however we met our annual rainfall total by mid-August so I'm not complaining. Nor can I complain about the temps - colder than norm Fall, but I hope we're not abusing our cool allotment leaving us with a warm Winter.. but wouldn't surprise me if it did... LOL, a truly consistent cold Winter on the heels of a cool Fall WOULD be a shock, given my own beliefs on what's behind climate change... Well now, that last thought just might offer a good reason for posting in one's own blog rather than in Dr Jeff's - as I recently stated to another friend - where it's a delicate tip-toe thru that steaming pile of hostility... One has to choose their wording and intent carefully there to avoid getting smeared and slathered in it... :(

On the brighter side -
Hmmmmm, da roast beast sounds excellent, now ya got me reminded how little I've eaten so far today, lol... I might give the Burns film a gander later - otherwise, usual HBO Sunday eve probably for me when I get back in...

Enjoy your evening, Bug!
(and drier weather wishes for yas!)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Well, lookie here!

You's rized up!

I know you lurk about and don't post all that much but it sure is good to see ya.

Leonids? Ain't no way, here. We're all clouded over and wet.

Got a Roast Beast in the oven, which will be done soon. Am a bit late with dinner today. I nodded off in the recliner for a short nap. Luckily, I woke up with enough time to get dinner on and ready before Hubby's bedtime.

Will be watching the latest Ken Burns film tonight, then catch the second airing of tonight's Walking Dead episode at 10:00. I was wondering how I was going to manage that. The Ken Burns film starts at 8:00 and ends at 10:00, so I lucked out!

No TV schedule conflict for Part 2 tomorrow on PBS. Not much on Monday nights that interest me except Antiques Roadshow and the Burns film pre-empts that.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Hiya Skye,
Last night I couldn't resist staying up / going out to look again since we've had such great viewing conditions, other than chilly temps, little better results - saw 4 of 'em! All average, fast / short-lived, no brilliant fireballs... But guess did get my wish to see another after the first... ;)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
I saw one last night too. Hope our wishes come true:)

Best wishes back at you...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hiya Finn,
Thanks, wishing same back atcha! And.. thanks for previous greetings too!
(just happened to click on, saw blog up the list, lol)

Also, hey Wabit!
Been enjoying a very delightful, cool Fall - lol, thanks for sending it down! Went outside early this morn, watching for Leonids - only saw one! Sure glad I saw the amazing spectacle in 2001... nothing close since...

Best wishes to all!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Wishing you a happy and peaceful Thanksgiving!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Hope all is well {{{Doc}}}

~ White wabits ~ White wabits ~ White wabits ~
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Hey Doc .. took forever to find you way down on the bottom of page 3 ...

Hope this finds you well, and that the clean-up in your area is completed..

Trying to send you some cooler air !!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Hey, Doc!

I figured you and yours were fine but glad you popped up a let us know for sure. I was hoping more that you had someone's phone number or they had yours. Wasn't really expecting you online for another day or two. I know power is still a bit spotty.

I was also right about why you didn't touch base before shutting down the computer. You were too busy battening down the hatches, watching your model runs, back to battening, etc. Too many things on the To Do list for simple blogging.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Fri Aug 31...
Again, many thanks to all of you - Finn, Bug, Huri, Shore, OGal, Wabit, Bogon, Gams, Code, FLCrackerGal, Ally, Skye, GatorGal, and SD/Barefoot!
If I missed someone, slap me!

Really couldn't post after Sat night, too much to do, as mentioned in part of my reply to SJ's email earlier:
Was way too busy finalizing storm-hardening preps for our two homes, buildings, family to hunker down, since early Sunday morning... Up to the point I shut down computer and left this location Tue aftn (as TS force winds started ripping), sorry to say, but I could not let myself get involved with blogging or reading blogs - my primary focus was on each GFS run analysis and sat imagery, and comparing to NHC projections so could make best informed decision... Thank God for the GFS model that I rely most heavily on (esp via Hi Res version I utilize from NOMADS site - when available!) -- IMHO it's our best "bird dog" for sniffing out changes regarding steering, track and likely intensity... even though the global GFS model does not resolve the inner core of a TC - one can make a skillful determination enough to extrapolate the expected values from surrounding enviro with the analysis offered... And uh, I'm about convinced it's time to put the ECMWF on ignore and the NHC / NOAA NWS should reappraise their trust in that damn ridiculously over-rated model!!! But that's a story for another day (and a conclusion I've come to over past couple years, not just this season as others seemed to suddenly notice)...

I reached my opinion on Sun morning that Isaac would either hit Houma dead on, or pass either 30 miles to the N or S of us... prompt action required... Was apparent that on approach, this was gonna be close to a Betsy / Gustav track, the only real question was how much would this large system intensify - as again, since last week, GFS RH layer forecast analysis indicated dry air would interrupt the process up to within about 12-18 hrs of landfall regardless of where hit... Very similar to what occurred with Gustav, plus it does seem something resembling an EWRC was underway near landfall with both storms (and Katrina too) - I'd suggest it's most likely related to dry air entrainment...

Anyway, as posted in em replies to several of you:
Certainly better today than been, and we fared well in Houma-Terrebonne compared to those N and E of here... As per usual, stayed at Mom's house in Bayou Blue-Gray about 6 miles above my home, also with us had my cousin / her BF who live down lower coast area of Dularge.. Quite a wild ride it was, and especially how long it fricking lasted - blasted for over a 3 day period, but with an incredibly long time within the eye, got a needed break others not so fortunate did not! Most reports from Terrebonne coastal areas are good, comparatively minor low-lying flooding, with highest surge east/north of here... Cousin's BF checking their location now, see how high it got... Wind damage less than Gustav, tho at times seemed like it was gonna rival it... Will add more observations, reports, etc as time allows...
Heck, might even post a new entry, lol, this comment alone is long enough to qualify!

Not as bad as Gustav with tree losses but still significant - saw a few landmark trees snapped or uprooted... Very fortunate, none totally lost at either of our locations - lotta limbs down and appears we lost about 1/2 of our pecan crop... Grateful should have some tho! ... I noted N facing leaves stripped, S side mostly intact... Was a miracle we didn't have more uprooted given high soil saturation all year... Homes / businesses fared well for most part too...

Yes, just for the record, I did shoot a couple shots during the eye, but nothing spectacular to view as skies remained med bright overcast with low stratus / some foggy-mist for most part, some slight clearing where could briefly see the sun trying to poke thru... Took shot of calm conditions - my still anemometer foreground (had hastily mounted on pickup truck, lol), still tree in background and sun thru low clouds... but it's on my film camera, needing development / scanning, etc... LOL, this being my 2nd within-the-eye experience, the mental image I have of Betsy is far more dramatic - bit more clearing of the low scud, could see stars, moon and some of the stadium effect from ground level! And the change from screaming winds to calm back to ripping suddenly from opposite direction was far faster in Betsy... ;)

So strange to be within the calm eye so long with slow moving Isaac, (muggy 100% humidity / 78-81F / BP near 28.70"), enjoying the respite and local quiet.. while one could hear the winds impacting others miles away in the distance...

Okay, blabbered on enough, gotta run...

(((Hugs to all)))!

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
{{{Doc}}} wonderful to hear from you!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Good to see you on the web this morning Doc .. and to hear your damage wasn't too bad !!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Yay~ Glad your damage was minimal & you have power:)

Bring us any pics from the eye?
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Yeah!!!! Doc, so glad to see your post and know you are OK!!!!

Glad you did not flood; admit I was very worried about that in your area. WOW a 4 hour eye, incredible!

my neighborhood got over 12.5" of rain in 2 days..we had boats going down the street..
houses were like islands in the lake; but t least no street flooding.

Been watching media cover Isaac and that storm was much worse than expected because it was so slow.

So happy happy happy you posted!!!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
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So very happy to hear you report in.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Good morning, Doc! Sure is good to see all is well for you, too. I talked to Wendy Billiot last night. She said crews were working their way down past Theriot already, and she had power at home but not at the camp or vice-versa. Anyway, they'll be heading home today. Like you, she talked about the trees and powerlines being the biggest problem for them, rather than the flooding. Obviously, others weren't so lucky.

Watching that eye crawl across Houma was amazing. I found the link to the streaming web cam down at city hall, and it was just amazing to see everything relatively calm for such a long time.

I did see one photo of a poor tree that took a hit on Bayou Black. I hope that was the exception rather than the rule for your area.

Now, I'll go drink my coffee. The kitty's fussing at me for sitting down here first, instead of with her. Have a good day!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

Thanks a ton for the love and support, we're fine!

Had no serious damage of consequence at either location, but trees / powerlines took a hit... wind was the worst issue in our area, flooding comparatively minor here unlike poor folks to our east and north where both hvy rain and surge took a bad toll - we were actually fortunate took the direct track over Houma... but excruciatingly slow Isaac wallowed over us, NLY winds pounded forever -- worst winds / damage sometime pre-dawn Wed in NW quad as eye approached... Then, in the eye for nearly 4 hours, at least a solid 2 hours of calm wind!!! Incredible... then another near full day of the back side w SLY winds, more rain (but not bad: 6-7")... More on observations later...

Got power restored late aftn both locations, we're lucky compared to many... Late returning back home this eve, unwrapped / reconnected all, but computer was very tough to restart - thought the old Mac had finally croaked!... LOL, of course first thing did was pour thru met data I missed out on of Isaac before came back on WU... Damn pathetic being a the mercy of radio announcers for 2 days, no other communication!

But WOW, if Hurricane Ike was the premier Cat 2, the most powerful to NOT be considered a major hurricane, his brother Isaac has redefined how powerfully destructive a Cat 1 can be!

Prayers / best wishes to those still suffering from Issac's misery.

Back later as can, just wanted to reassure everyone we came thru unscathed... and again, many thanks for the love / well wishes!
G'nite... or Good Morning as it be!

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Bug .. doubt if Doc has power or internet yet .. could be another week or more before its back on and up ...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Alright, Doc. You need to come up for air soon.
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This storm's eye looks more defined eye than it did a couple hours ago. Way better than at 2 a.m. when the W ans SW side of it went missing. Also storm's moving some. Looks like the movement will have a more N component with the W, and SSE eyewall rather than mostly eastern eyewall could be what Houma sees.

Wherever ya are, DocNDswamp, best wishes.

Add: 2;30 pm cdt
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Jeeze... lookit all the traffic on that Houma webcam! No wind, no nothing. I know they're in the eye but still. You'd think folks would stay home.

I went looking all thru Dr. M's blog comments last night and I didn't see Doc at all. there was a "Don'tneedahandle" (I think it was) that made a remark about two eye walls and, at first glance, I thought it was Doc. Slowed down to take a good look and found it wasn't.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

I take it he never showed up to post anything?
I sent him mail and gave him all my info but doubt if he will call me... hope he calls one of you.

Hope he comes back here as soon as he can get back on and let us know he is ok...

Hope he and his Mother are OK.

He did not show up for weeks after Gus back in 2008.

Keep me posted my friends...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Thinking about you Doc and hoping all is well at your house. Prayers for you and others in LA and all along the Gulf Coast.
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Yeah Skye, for too long time now!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Doc is in the eye....
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Patrap & tkeith in NO are ok, so far so good :)
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:( (sigh)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Finn, Houma's the place where my friends from Dulac, Chauvin and points south evacuated to because it's a bit higher. Still, that hardly matters. It's a mess. I just hope once the storm starts to move, it moves! Being stuck in the eye is one thing. Being stuck in those rain bands is something else, and it's not one bit good.

None of the radar stations around are reporting any longer. Power outages, perhaps, as I see a half-million customers are out of power. Or maybe wind. On the other hand, the cam is showing a good bit of traffic out and around and pretty good conditions for the time being - but you can see the wind is picking up.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Thanks, finn.
Sometimes the reality is such that I cannot bear to accept it. As if I could imagine it better and make it so.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Huri, Doc is on the Houma coast. In the eye all night and still no mercy, Isaac has stalled right over him. This is devastating... he's already gotten a foot of rain in the past weeks, can't take any more.

I feel so powerless... :*( excuse my French, but...


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Just watching report on WWL - Houma is in the eye right now. If you go to the livestream you can see what it looks like.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Good morning Doc and Mom,
Thanks Finn and Shore for posting that Houma cam.
I thought Doc lived in a swamp.
Houma has streets and electric lines and sidewalks and ?stop signs and parking meters?

All is well, I can just feel it.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Doc~ Watching the lights flash in Houma, hoping you make it through alright.
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Shore posted this Houma live cam on her blog.

Here is Houma radar, looks like Doc will get the eye...

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Good evening Doc! I hope you are secured and dry in your next of the woods. Been thinking about you and yours and praying that the morning light finds that Isaac spared you any damage. Take care.
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Prayers and Wellness Wishes, Doc!
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Good ol' code...
There's an UUUUGLY looking storm band rolling towards you. I'm blowing holy smoke your way from my Salem Lights. Yeah, they're light, but I'm blowin' real hard to keep it away from Houma!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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