By: DocNDswamp , 6:48 PM GMT on September 21, 2010

Note: Sorry... Hope to update soon...

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SE LA obs / Tropical Analysis: Late September...

Tue Sep 28 2010 9:20 AM CDT...

Just a few quick notes, as personal concerns are taking major precedence of my time... can not offer header updates on developing situation, so will only be here infrequently in days ahead...

Nice late Sep Fall wx over SE LA, coolest yet as HUML1 dropped to 57F this morn... Synoptic pattern fairly well locked in...

Activity continues flaring well in NW Caribbean below Cuba, slow to consolidate a central low vort due to the nature of the beast... It does have much in common with a W Pacific monsoon depression formation - we can see the GFS 500 mb forecast show it briefly as such, a large core vortex with multiple LL vort features within... However, the deep CONUS frontal trof incursion will interrupt what would be a steady slow consolidation process to a very strong central low (into a major H or typhoon if had time) as the S Cen US trof will lift it NNEWD toward Florida, tearing at the mid level organization into an elongated vort feature, eventually merging with the CONUS trof... (should see a central low shape up, but additional lower level vorts swirling within the systems' structure)...

That said, I expect to get a TD into TS Nicole as a high probability to form today and rapidly get forced NEWD over next 2 days... and certainly advise FL / E coast residents for possible torrential, flooding rains and gale force conditions...

My times up,
Best wishes to you all...
I'll be back when I find it possible...

************************************************* *******

Tue Sep 21 2010, 1:30 PM CDT...

Or (continuing from Mon Sep 20 post) maybe I won't, will post the Karl analysis at later date... as 95L (our 3rd of season) is steadily materializing on schedule as expected to crawl WWD across S Carib... The subtropical steering ridge remains well established above (actually strengthens) to track 95L right toward Nicaragua-Honduras... We could see 95L become TD 15 within next 36 hrs, becoming TS Matthew shortly after and could become a hurricane before making landfall around Fri night... (edit: Note the NHC has upped chances to 50% now)... GFS has been all over this coming storm (and complicated evolution), long targeting Honduras as center of attention, with past few adjusting track of the imminent development of 95L more SWD toward Puerto Cabezas in NE Nicaragua, but we'll watch...

However, dissipation over Cen AM or continuation into E Pac does NOT appear likely, as we'll see major changes in the steering evolution as the ridging over CONUS breaks down by weekend / early next week thanks to a CONUS cold front and large deepening Mid-Upper level cut-off low expected to develop and drop down over lower MS Valley / N Gulf region, that will bring delightfully, cooler more Fall temps by early next week here... But with the subtropical ridge going poof over the area - sets up farther E over Atlantic and over W CONUS-MX - appears it will leave the TC's circulation intact to stall / slowly drift NWD over Cen AM and above Honduras for several days under nearly non-existent to weak steering, which could cause monumental flooding woes in Cen AM...

Now for some speculation / interpretation of GFS guidance based on past several runs (and I've saved every cycle's outlook since Sep 14th for persistence / consistency on this system since was weak wave, came off Africa around Sep 13th)... It becomes really interesting to watch how this plays out by next week, and it's not exactly clear if same low remains intact or new low forms (and perhaps a new named storm!) above Honduras, given the prospects ahead... As I've been mentioning forever, lol, the overall set-up is for the Cen AM monsoon trof to become engaged, shift / expand more ENEWD over the W Carib-S GOM region and we could see a transformation of that Honduras low become a very large circulation such as a monsoon depression type feature that is more common in the W Pacific...

Additionally, with the MJO advancing EWD now becoming more favorable to enhance activity, several GFS runs have indicated we could have multiple lows try form during the period, to possibly include a Tehuantepec or E Pac low to the W or SW, and another near Haiti - which could well happen... But overall scheme, seems the Honduran Gulf low should become the dominant feature to watch - the Haiti low could become a separate storm that lifts NWD, while the E Pac low gets absorbed into the Honduras low's larger circulation... Fascinating to ponder we could actually have 3 named storms over next 10 days or so outta all this! As such, this process will slowly evolve, going beyond medium range guidance limit of 192 hrs out, at this time... However, what it has indicated beyond is another deepening E CONUS frontal trof that picks up both the cut-off low over N Gulf region AND the large sprawling W Carib storm, that - at this time - appears greatest threat could be to either Florida / Bahamas, or both around mid to late next week...

About my best guess / analysis at this point, certainly bears watching as could become biggest threat to US yet...

Also, with the favorable MJO, Cen AM monsoon trof expanded, and ELY waves continuing, additional development in Caribbean likely in weeks ahead that will offer more potential US threats for October with frontal trofs digging across...

We shall see...


Mon Sep 20...

Glad to see long-lived monster-sized Igor weakened to Cat 1 with it's close pass by well-fortified Bermuda, which had TS force winds over 24 hrs... a peak of 74 mph sustained / 93 mph gust... Steadily improving wx there now...

The Cape Verde system, Invest 94L could be declared TD / TS Lisa at any time and could well stay in that region...

Of more local concern, much as been advertised in this time frame, watching what has been a barely distinguishable weak ELY wave that came off Africa Sep 13th behind Julia crawling along the ITCZ, now approaching S Windwards with blossoming convection today (as we saw with Karl)... This should become Invest 95L in time, and may not see development until reaches SW-W Caribbean later this week... Given the wide-ranging multitude of options beyond medium range forecasting, EVERYONE west and north of the Cen Caribbean will be monitoring future possibilities... Do keep in mind what I've mentioned previously, should this feature fully engage the Cen Am Monsoon trof, which has shown signs of more NEWD migration, we could have a system as large in breadth as Igor... Just saying... Nothing "written in stone" yet...

But what I will "write in stone" is this - Hurricane Karl's operational intensity as a much overly-hyped Cat 3 115 mph major at landfall will be severely downgraded in post-season re-analysis! Oh, the NHC / HRD prolly won't honestly demote it as strongly as they should... or have, say, hurricanes that have hit Louisiana for example, but IMHO Karl at landfall was at most - a high end Cat 1 of 90 mph!

And yes, I saved the pertinent data to support my argument... maybe I'll post it here while we wait for next threat to materialize...

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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197. DocNDswamp
5:46 PM GMT on August 30, 2011
Tue Aug 30 greetings,

NCEP MAG transition day as old page is goner, clicked today to blank white page w old Camino browser - although I set up a coded page as bypass workaround that's doable but inconvenient - and many know I complained over the forced transition, being relegated to the dinosaur heap... However, much more positive news as it new MAG page DOES work on my (also old) version of Safari... and NCEP has greatly improved model output and functions - as most of you already know, lol! Not so good with You Tube's latest changes - got nothing with either browser, oh well... oddly, if a YT is posted on another site it often works fine.
LOL, aren't you glad ya got a newer computer?
Yep, imagine few are still using a near 9 year old machine / OS... If I disappear for extra extended period, well... you'll know why...

Nice sunny, hot and dry with smoke over the area again today from E NOLA marsh fire burning away... LOL, more than enough relief a'coming... What's about to happen is a complete shift from dry Aug to a very wet 1st half September, some relief of course for SE TX but SE LA appears might bear the brunt of our brewing tropical trouble with possible hvy flooding rains, extended period of high tides / winds... as we'll prolly see a TD / TS Lee (or some name!) try take shape this weekend... As GFS / ECMWF are hinting, this might be a FORECASTING NIGHTMARE to pinpoint beyond any given 3-4 day period... In many ways resembles a monsoon trof in the LL field set-up, if an anticyclone aloft held true, however, expected upper trof development over NW Gulf region could enhance subtropical storm development initially.. Mid level progression looks sympathetic and favorable, but also see offering weak steering, holding promise this broad low pressure regime will be stuck with us for a while... can see that in projections of vort development / possible counterclockwise track over N Cen / NW / W Gulf region... LOL, that kinda motion, we might call this one TS Wanderlust ot TS Rover! Meanwhile by that time (early next week), upper trof weakens or shifts away / anticyclone high replaces / rebuilds aloft and could transition to pure TS (or stronger) perhaps finally lifted out to the NE w a cold front late next week! No guarantees / confidence on exact development right now, but a wild ride ahead with possibilities - it definitely looks WET here!!! And a very busy next few days for me with much to prepare ahead for - oh, the procrastination on a few issues is about to bite me in da ***... ;)

Sheeesh, all this homegrown action coming, I can't even concern myself with Atlantic's Katia at this time, but it sure looks impressive and a candidate for next major H.


Hiya Barefoot,
Great to see ya, gal!
Hey, no K storms needed here, Katia can just put on a nice show well offshore in Atl and we'll be happy, lol, got our own local tropical wx to watch now!
Great day back at ya!

Hey Finn,
Well ouch... darn that Florida sunshine! But glad you and friends had a fine time of it, and ya got good restful sleep to recover... LOL, on Irene's name, as had one in the family, same opinion you had of ones ya knew! Yes, hope this Katia has better personality!

Hello Wabit,
Man, I'd love to see more of those rainfall bullseye projections a LOT farther west... LOL, Louisiana is just too conjoined with Texas, looks like we'll get most of wind and rain on the N and E side of this damn tropical mess! Wish I could shift all this another 200 miles over - Texans are the ones begging for tropical relief, not me... ;) Heck, after the 17-18" deluge of July, I've been rather enjoying the dry heat of August - can't get any work done in daily hvy rains!

Really gotta run, folks...
Will check in as can ahead, apologies if don't respond more timely...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
196. whitewabit
6:58 AM GMT on August 30, 2011
Doc ... am watching the Gulf too ... something is brewing ... hoping for it to go into Tx and give the people some much needed slow rain... maybe this weekend ... they need it so badly in that part of the country!!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
195. LakeWorthFinn
5:33 AM GMT on August 30, 2011
Hi {{{Doc}}}, I have no idea of the 3-letter CAP words you're commenting on, but all the 4+-letter words are familiar... and if you rant about something, I'm sure you're right and have my full support, just tell me where to hang the "I protest" flag :)

Dumb Finn is a red neck with a burnt cleavage after spending a few days with a Finn friend who LOVES the sun. I tried to stay in the shade, under a palm tree, or a big umbrella of the South Beach Marriott (yes... when we get a chance to be together, we do in STYLE lol!) but all my hiding from the sun was in vain, so now hubby has to rub Aloe Vera on my itching skin. But our 30 years of friendship and chatting the nights away with her were worth it.
We watched Irene on TV and on wab's blog (post 64.) you can read the weather and other Irene news that are too long to re-post here.
Off to bed, got too much sun and too little sleep this weekend.
Hopefully what the models are hinting for GOM will just bring a nice TS to Texas.
Well, Irene lived up to her name. And talking about names, I'm sure Katia won't cause trouble, because my Finn friend's name is Katia! :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
194. Barefootontherocks
5:01 AM GMT on August 30, 2011
Hi DocNDswamp, (and everyone)
Been reading here off and on and thought it was about time to say hello.

Looks like ATCF called Katia tonight but the NHC didn't upgrade because the convection died off. We'll see how long that lasts. I don't like that this is TD 12 and will be a K name unless a gulf spin beats her to it. Not likely. But, at this point anyway, we can hope she'll roar on out to sea.

Have a good one!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
193. DocNDswamp
7:23 PM GMT on August 29, 2011
Howdy Wabit,

Glad ya stopped by!
I sure agree with your points, N Windwards / Leewards will be watching closely... Right now, projections of it are reminding me of Igor last year... Very likely our next major H...

Meanwhile gonna also be watching for homegrown trouble down here with the Gulf... as GFS has hinted back / forth for a while... Seems another set-up possible like last September w broad monsoon trof capable of spawning TC or multiple low centers popping up over a period, if happens... Right now I'm gonna state caution for any who assume the models are showing just 1 or 2 weak TD / TS's / rainy systems... could be, could be lot more... As we spoke about wide wind fields such as Irene, one true monsoon depression we had in '98 TS Frances at 65 mph had TS force winds extending out 345 miles, one of the largest for never becoming a hurricane and difficult to track / reforming LLC... Severe flooding from hvy rains and surge here with that one... and a hellacious wind field, so far away from center at the time I thought of it like a subtropical storm...

Work calls,
later m'friend!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
192. whitewabit
6:11 PM GMT on August 29, 2011
Morning Doc ... yes TD 12 is born ... the early extended models are always, so it seems, places the storms at a higher latitude then they actually turn out to be ... so the northern Antilles should watch her carefully as she tracks across the Atlantic ...

Am really hoping it intensifies and sooner then later and she heads north into the open sea and dies out ...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
191. DocNDswamp
5:43 PM GMT on August 29, 2011
Monday greetings,

Hey Bug,
Good ya got off early Fri, and thanks for the report... Glad the impact there was largely beach erosion, knew it was gonna rough it up... Irene's circulation was so huge, felt the flow around it as NW - N winds picked up here in SE LA on the dry side last couple days - barometer fell also on Sat from around 29.90's to near 29.76"... Feel bad for all up above, for that matter extensive damage since it began from Puerto Rico, Bahamas, NC thru entire NE region... wasn't until last night / today for news reports to fill in the blanks how incredibly widespread the damage has been / ongoing... Truly a historical storm, this is probably the last Irene we'll see on the list... Next to-be hurricane shaping up w TD 12, hope current projections hold true, but way early to know - everyone gonna be skittish watching it grow this week...

Hiya Shore,
Yes indeed, and sadly what confounds me most is a lot of what should be better regulated isn't even addressed - for instance, one thing I'd like see is a set standard for food expiration dates by having the month designated with 3 letters, followed by date w 2 numbers / year in 4 numbers to end any confusion - lol, kinda uncertain when I come across 12-11-10 in the pantry or freezer...

And lol, I forgot IRS, DHS and TSA, the latter really ridiculously out of touch with their intrusiveness, inappropriately patting / screening... acting PC to avoid any, god forbid, "profiling", when the court of common sense dictates otherwise... OSHA is another matter, a sorry excuse of a fired worker reported a friend's cabinet shop out of revenge, resulting in a surprise visit / frivolous charges, thousands in fines / several days shut down, jobs / wages lost for the likes of having uncovered electrical outlets in a damn work shop! I'm sure you know several of these as regs are rampantly overdone on work hazards that we all know exist and approach prudently... But litigious dumbasses run amok among us... Sigh...

Back to weather - YES, RAIN is a very REAL PROBABILITY for TEXAS as we turn the calendar to September this week! Ooops, sorry about the shouting, lol... We'll see a steadily moistening Gulf by Wed on, and the pattern should deliver a wet tropical flow right from Carib / Gulf into TX after...

In fact, the Gulf could become quite disturbed with a monsoon trof type set-up (once again - as last year, seeing incr westerlies rising up in latitude over E Pac to induce such formation, interacting w Atl easterlies) and we'll have to watch for pop-up TC development, particularly over W / S Gulf for some time - seeing nothing too organized in projections yet, but a broad regime of low pressure / monsoon trof could lead to development... and that is problematic, modelling may be crude in depicting a monsoon depression low like a TS Frances '98 (yikes, ala today's 12Z GFS for this time next week!)... Add in a possible notable cold front dropping down as overall synoptic is seasonally changing, all spells RELIEF from da hot / dry for TX, finally... Rejoice and enjoy as arrives and hope doesn't lead to too much a good thing! Often does, as I found out in July...

LOL, unfortunately looks wet here too, and I ain't caught up outside yet for this to set in over here! Oh well... guess I better git busy.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
190. shoreacres
12:12 AM GMT on August 29, 2011
Doc ~ That's one of the sad things about the situation, whether guitars, grain, nursing homes or child care institutions. Most people will accept reasonable regulations, understand the common good and are willing to abide by the rules - if only they could understand them. So many times the regulatory approach seems like a giant game of "gotcha" - it may make the enforcers feel great, but while they're all puffed up over their great accomplishments, the often end up doing greater harm than lack of regulation would have caused.

The law of unintended consequences usually applies in these situations, too.

And (shhhhhhhh....) have you noticed the rain in TX in the five day? ;)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
189. palmettobug53
12:08 AM GMT on August 29, 2011
Final assessment on Irene in Charleston. Lots of beach erosion. Folly Beach lost power Friday for about 9 hours, due to a downed power pole, which also tied up traffic, since it fell across the road.

Most people had small branches, twigs, leaves etc.

I only got about a quarter inch of rain and that was over with before I got home from work. We got some blustery winds Friday evening. About 21 mph with gusts to 30-35. Hubby had no problems on his route in the Sat a.m. wee hours.

All in all, we've seen worse from strong summer T-storms. We were lucky.

Local Beaches Take A Beating

There's some vids and a photo gallery down the page.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
188. palmettobug53
8:16 PM GMT on August 26, 2011
Will have to try that link later. It just sits there and grinds.

Came home early. No need, really, but the Big Boss said if we got our work done, we could go. I did and I left.

A little breezy, wet roads and a little debris here and there. Small branches, lots of leaves. No standing water. About all the need I had for the wipers was to flick off the spray from the car in front of me kicking up droplets from the pavement.

I guess we've either gotten all we're gonna get or we're in a lull. LOL
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
187. DocNDswamp
7:11 PM GMT on August 26, 2011
Good Friday to yas!

Hi Finn,
Thanks for the 1st hand report... yes all that distance and still get notable effects from the "weak" side of Irene... I'll have to drop by check out your pics... After NC which will get the brunt, weaker Irene's winds will still be on order of strong Nor'easters they get - and I'm sure residents there will say that after - albeit, high winds spread out much farther / broader wind damage perhaps, but the surge potential and very hvy tropical rains / flooding are the serious concerns they might be surprised with...

Hey Shore,
Yes... as you know, I've been stressing Irene's size for some time, compared to Ike a few days ago on that aspect... Another "I" storm in '03, Hurricane Isabel had even larger wind field, and seriously slammed NC but it hit moving SE to NW, barely affected New England unlike Irene will... Gonna post an interesting comparison later on the odd coincidence of powerful, wide wind field "I" storms we've had...

Thanks for that news story link, and you know I'm no lady so can imagine the language it provoked from me, lol! That's about typical of our f'ing idiot regulatory agencies - I'd like to dismantle every frickin' one of 'em for being the sometimes well-intentioned but misguided, self-serving, arrogant, baseless-mandating, overly-aggressive, power-wielding, asset-stealing, life-disrupting, bureacratic sh*thead thieves they are - OSHA, EPA, FDA, DEA, DOJ, "F" all of 'em!!! Really incredible they were able to stick charges on the guy with the old piano's ivory... Un-f'ing-believable... I'll add, these agencies answer only to themselves and it's been same theme of outrageous behavior further intruding into our lives regardless of Dem or Rep administrations.

Hell, they'll have a field day when they raid me - vintage guitars, lol, ironically also - some ivory acquired in 60's from an old piano, not to mention my pre-CITES slabs of brazilian rosewood I'm hoarding, bought in '91 prior to treaty enactment... several board ft of madagascar rosewood too, haven't checked it's status lately, but their ebony - highly streaked / figured, used for fingerboards by some, more often as veneer though - still legal / widely available (guess sourcing is the issue)... From what I remember, more common (black) ebony, largely from Gabon, is preferred ebony for instruments... Anyhow, decades ago, Gibson and others switched to indian rosewood as primary fingerboard material when Brazilian dalbergia nigra became more scarce / expensive as hell... AND - a few years later, not to waste what was left of earlier original logging, Brazil granted permission (and CITES-approved) to retrieve / sell what was left of brazilian rosewood stumps, 3-4 ft worth... Guess the US would rather they just burn it or let it rot, than utilize... "Come on baby, light my fire" - and this (yet another) example-of-govt-power-abuse did!

Sheeesh, for that matter, the azzhole agents prolly couldn't pass an exam qualifying the damn differences in species much less it's origin - reminds me of incident a guy I know was charged by a "greenhorn" wildlife agent of over-limit possession of striped bass - he had around 20 - when he actually had yellow bass... respective limit difference of 5 and 50, charges dropped after biologist confirmed...

Okay, I'm calming down... some... ;)

EDIT: Lest someone get wrong idea - of course I support proper management of our remaining resources - they were raped beyond imagination for centuries, but as usual govt goes too far in their zeal, often for the PC reasons... Found this from one of few companies still selling BR when can find it, note their anguish dealing with regs... and also click on "madagascar rosewood" to see their current position on the matter.


Hello Bug,
Wasn't that ironic? Almost funny - leap outta the pan into the fire, lol!
Hope they let you off early, get back safely home this eve! I'm sure conditions are going downhill a bit this aftn... Good luck!

Hiya Gams,
Yes, will be watching Irene intently this weekend...
Oh, so true, I forgot your dau is in Boston! Good advice, could be very hvy flooding rains / power losses... Hope they are at a safe elevation away from danger...
Best wishes to them and all!

Gonna hafta to run... much to do this aftn...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
186. seflagamma
5:04 PM GMT on August 26, 2011
Hi Doc,

Just dropping by here to see what is going on and I see the gang are stopping by also.

going to be something to watch this weekend.

I told my Daughter in Boston to get prepared to have not power for several days and possible fresh water flooding.. she lives about 15 miles SW of Boston in Wellsley..

You try to enjoy your weekend.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
185. palmettobug53
4:50 PM GMT on August 26, 2011
Finn, your friend sure did head in the wrong direction!

I realize she has to go North to get out of FL but then she should have hooked a left and gone to Nawlins.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
184. shoreacres
4:31 PM GMT on August 26, 2011
Kind of ironic - just in for lunch and if I read Doc Masters' post correctly, this year's "I" storm could be turning a bit Ike-ish, in the sense that there could be quite a category spread between winds and surge. It'll be interesting to see how things are this evening.

I ran across this little article about the feds and guitar manufacturing, which I offer without comment. Mostly, I'm not commenting because if I got rolling I might dis-remember my lady-like language. ;-)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
183. LakeWorthFinn
4:20 AM GMT on August 26, 2011
Hiya Doc, thanks for update!
yes, my friend evacuated to Long Island, NY.... talking about cane-stalking...
I am so glad GOM was spared from this 'broad broad' (saw your post at Bug's), but that doesn't take away any of my concern for the North coast.
We closed the store at 4pm, started getting squalls and gusts up to 45mph, and streets were empty so we decided to go home. But I had to stop by the beach and take a few pics. It was hard to believe Irene was 150-200 miles off the coast with the huge waves I saw (pics on my blog). Irene didn't do anything worth mentioning for us in Lake Worth, but many people were injured 5 miles away, haven't had the time to look up why. Judging from the waves here, I can't even imagine what it'll be like up North. She is HUGE! She fills the Eastern Atlantic from the Bahamas to NC!!! Like when watching Katrina approach you, I'm sick to my stomach thinking of the people who will probably die, Gonna hit the sack after popping in at wab's and skye's to see what's up.
So glad you're here, the main blog is a jungle I don't want to enter.
Love to mom, Spot's name is still written on a piece of paper on my altar, right under a golden angel and next to my little Mimi dog who passed away years ago.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
182. DocNDswamp
7:56 PM GMT on August 25, 2011
Oh wow, that was a nasty double whammy y'all went thru! None of us watching Jeanne could believe what was happening, another landfall in same near exact location...

Yes, it all becomes so surreal... Odd thing about relatively slow-motion disasters - perhaps we have too much time to think, lol! And I sure can't criticise those who decide to stay - I've yet to evacuate for one, but I might for the next... Surely must plan, know your surrounding's hazards, weigh those options / decisions carefully and get as well-stocked as possible to hunker in a strong secure place, and accept you're on your own for week or two... Just not doable for many, or their location's too vulnerable...

But no, no excuse for totally ignoring such threats, yet we see it all the time...

Hmmmm, just remembering what date this is - S FL had their 19th anniversary of Andrew yesterday morn, tonight is mine! Sheeeesh, nearly every date in Aug / Sep is a hurricane anniversary for somebody!

Gotta run, good seeing ya GG!



An ominous forecast here -

242 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011





Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
181. Gatorxgrrrl
7:15 PM GMT on August 25, 2011
I remember when Frances hit Vero, I was in denial about a second cane hitting within two weeks, up until the day before Jeanne hit I was still shaking my head no, my husband was pulling me into the car saying we are leaving, it is going to hit us. So I know there is a sense of denial, I hope people will really take it seriously especially in densely populated areas #shudder# I can't even think about NYC without power for 3 weeks, no restaurants open, but it is possible.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
180. DocNDswamp
7:12 PM GMT on August 25, 2011
Well hello Gatorgal,

You're so right... guess the issue for many in those major E Coast metro areas is the lack of hurricane impact, ya know, they got away with so long, always skirting off to the east to hit Cape Cod and out to sea...

Hope that since a lot of news outlets often quote Dr Jeff, they'll repost his thoughts later today / tomorrow to help drive the point home how significant Irene is... All weather forecasters are trying desperately to reach the more inattentive, complacent folks to at least be aware / prepare...

We can only hope they listen!

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
179. Gatorxgrrrl
6:46 PM GMT on August 25, 2011
amen to all you said Doc. Really how many hurricanes do people need to see on TV to take them seriously - really it's the 21st century people!! Get prepared!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
178. DocNDswamp
6:43 PM GMT on August 25, 2011
Hi folks, Thu greetings...

Hello Gams,
Glad you successfully made the transition with the rest of us older folks, lol!

I see you're getting some outer bands but indeed FL got lucky...

Hiya Bug,
Wow, that is a sad story... sheesh, guy was prolly so looped he just bounced around, no harm... like we hear with drunks in car crashes... Certainly looking better for ya, although Irene still may give you TS fringe effects even from it's expected distance...

Hey Finn,
Holy schmolly, Long Island, NY???
Call her back to FL soon as can!
Yes, really worrisome - NC will be prepared mostly but those metro residents above VA on up - not counting seasoned Cape Cod, etc folks - have no clue if this tracks near / into Jersey and Long Island, even as a large 80 mph cane... or lesser if moves more inland, still a major disruption / considerable damage one form or another.

Please restrain me if I hear the inevitable "we didn't think would be this bad!" comments after... And ya know a lotta people busy with their daily schedules are gonna ignore Irene, perhaps one positive is it'll be arriving on the weekend...


Irene seems still trying consolidate it's center, like it's constantly been in one long EWRC - the inner eye which has barely established itself to this point, keeps hanging on, while overall wants to carve out a large eye, back / forth... causing lotta wild wobbles, but moving NNW now as expected... Kinda wish would get better org sooner, intensify next 24-36 hrs, then begin another EWRC before hitting NC in somewhat weakening phase... or remain status quo, not deepen, but hate to see it prolong such until nears NC then come in as Cat 4 / strong 3! ... No way to know... Seems Morehead City right in the crosshairs of a direct hit, as of now... then Irene tracks NNE right thru E NC on or inside coastline while OBX gets blasted with right quadrant...

Still looking at track reasoning after, certainly Irene will move within that mid-upper trof pattern and anticyclone aloft shifts E, while simultaneously see that Atlantic ridge getting more deep-layered, building NWWD almost in sync to the east of Irene, blocking any escape out to sea, forcing the continued NNE track over the Northeast states - either right along coast into Long Is or bit farther west inland... and over New England / Maine / E Canada... It'll also be moving at good clip and as we've seen with such, while under increased SWLY shear it often has less detrimental effect with storm moving same direction...
Sure hope too many aren't lulled with foolish wishcasting or lack respect for a "mere" Cat 1 there...
Not this one...

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
177. LakeWorthFinn
5:57 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
I have a friend in FL, who is so afraid of hurricanes, that as soon as she saw the 'da code' pointing towards FL from the Leeward Islands, she took the first flight up North to be safe on... LONG ISLAND!

Ditto Doc, people up north, this is not a time for a beach party!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
176. palmettobug53
1:17 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Heaving a sigh of relief for myself but biting my nails for all the ones in Irene's path. She is one nasty bit.... well, you know.

Hubby and I found out that a slight acquaintance of ours weathered Hugo onboard a small sailboat. It wasn't his sailboat but he knew the owner. Not quite sure how it came about or even where the sailboat was anchored. At the marina or hidden somewhere up the Ashley or Cooper rivers. I couldn't belive it when I found out some months afterwards. He could have easily been killed/drowned.

Knowing said acquaintance's addiction to alcohol, I'm pretty sure he probably completely out of it and didn't even notice the storm. Sad case, really.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
175. seflagamma
9:41 PM GMT on August 24, 2011
Hi Doc,

This 58 thing isn't so bad after all!
You gave me the heads up about it being a piece of cake! LOL

We got lucky on Irene, just hope the rest of the Eastern Seaboard gets as lucky and it stays off shore...

Take care!
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174. DocNDswamp
9:34 PM GMT on August 24, 2011
Noting a few pearls from 5 PM EDT NHC adv / discussion...


Already expanding it's wind field immensely -


Would not surprise if those numbers expanded on the order of - 90 / 260... or farther out like Ike's size of 120 / 275... LOL, this "I" storm's destined to be an equal whopper...


Darn good point, a stronger trof as ECMWF indicating would mean more than increased shear effects, enable a more pronounded weakness on the west side to invite such a shift, combined with firm Atl ridge to east... Remains biggest challenge to the forecast, and crucial for mid-Atl / NE region if / when occurs... Perhaps another set of coordinated balloon sounding launches upstream might be upcoming... As last sentence implies with heavy reliance, will watch for changes / deviations from either or both...

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173. DocNDswamp
8:26 PM GMT on August 24, 2011
Howdy Miss Finn,

LOL, well last night Irene was undergoing intensification - and sat imagery was a sight to behold - while I found myself in state of rapid decline, had to drop off!

Ouch indeed, sorry to hear 'bout your wisdom tooth... but you're still much prettier / friendlier than most cottonmouths I've seen lately... ;) Hope ya feeling better today, sheeesh I'm long overdue the dentist visit / not a happy subject of discussion...

LOL, the planet will do just fine, but humans?
Ya know, I've read those numerous predictions and seen the divided continental US map, but not sure if they're having a vision of the future... or the past... but certainly, all in geologic time will dramatically change from plate tectonics, obviously quicker with the next large impactor... LOL, I live in one of the most rapidly degrading environments due to it's very young deltaic composition - essentially a chunk of mud jutting out in the ocean leaning into the deep continental shelf dropoff - so have seen lotta change in one human lifetime... One way or another that map IS a close portrayal of Louisiana's future!

Good to see Cat 3 Irene has turned NW today on schedule, sure strengthened impressively last night from 00Z on... As mentioned on Wabit's blog, could see the numerous mesovortices carving around the developing eye, probably some great hi res vis imagery today showing similar, perhaps contributing to the wobbling motion...

Prayers and best wishes to all presently, or about to get blasted in Bahamas today / tomorrow with intensifying Irene - hopeful the more NW turn helps it track more E of most populated islands, NNW the sooner the better... After... Official track continues the slight EWD shift toward over NC's OBX, and GFS has it just skirting offshore but appears still raking it perhaps with western eyewall... Certainly a good chance even if a bit offshore should we have an EWRC that leaves Irene with a larger eye / already large wind field expands more... Still bigger track diverging solutions beyond toward Mid-Atlantic / New England to be decided... By that point, I'm not convinced the expected approaching short wave interaction will have major influence on Irene's track back to west some (or, more N) as much as it being the Atl ridge holding strong like a wall to it's east... But as I mentioned, and see the NHC is describing same now, increased SW shear from it... We can add in EWRC or two, some cont dry air getting into it, frictional interaction, cooler SST's, all having affect to slowly weaken Irene - and yet, should still be a very large powerful Cat 2-1 hurricane fully capable of widespread damage from large wind field, hvy flooding rainfall, storm surge, extreme swells / high waves, strong rip currents! EVERYONE, from NC on up should be in high stage of prepardness NOW for a devastating event... and should impact be lesser, be grateful for it! The entire E coast from FL on up need be aware of wave / swell / rip current dangers, esp surfers / swimmers / gawkers... Irene is a very dangerous storm, a classic East Coast Monster making a run at name retirement...

Please heed all warnings, folks!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
172. LakeWorthFinn
5:21 AM GMT on August 24, 2011
Wow, what a treat; Doc & Wab both back! Feels like good ol' times :)

Talking about teeth, had one pulled out today and I'm now a cotton-mouth, though totally harmless in my misery of loosing my last piece of wisdom... If we were on the phone, you'd think I'm in Margarita Ville... LOL - OUCH!

Skye commented on her blog that she has noticed earthquakes and canes/typhoons often go hand in hand, which doesn't surprise her.
I found out today, that the Eastern half of US is one single plaque, but West coast is formed from millions of small plaques, like a mosaic crust. When there's a quake somewhere in CA, it can't be felt in the next plaque, because of the mosaic nature. I saw on CNN that today's quake near DC was felt from Michigan to Alabama and down the E coast due to that one plaque shaking. Makes me think of the "Sleeping Prophet" Edgar Casey, who said (among many other VERY interesting things), that some day US will be cut in half somewhere between Lake Michigan and the GOM. I wonder how much axial tilt, shaking, breaking, flooding and bombing can our precious planet take?

My small "Power" altar is like a mosquito's pee in the Atlantic compared to THE Power and Mother Nature. But like an ant, I carry my prayers to the Hill, and maybe, just for the "maybe", one more prayer on that Hill makes it big enough to change someone's life for the better.

Oh my... see what you get from darn ex-aliens when you're back to talk about WEATHER :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
171. DocNDswamp
6:06 PM GMT on August 23, 2011
Good Tuesday to ya folks,

Hiya Code,
Yep, feeling the relief Irene won't be blowing up over the Gulf but worried for our Bahamas and EC friends... I had about the same here yesterday - tremendous lightning / only .13" rain, although some heavier just below me... Ya know what, I haven't even totalled my Aug rain lately as it's been below avg... again, lol... like a flip of the switch as July ended. Fine with me, still way behind dealing with outside work forced to put off with last month's steady deluge...

Good on you, keeping da pups feeling secure with Mom's love... Huh? High-strung? Say it ain't so. LOL!

Hello Finn,
Wow, that's quite a collection! I'd say you're harnessing the POWER efficiently, lol!

As of now the outlook looks good for Floridians being spared any direct impact, but yeah - seeing what's coming and trusting it WILL turn is difficult, as I clearly remember during the last full day of Katrina's approach... similar deal, counting on a trof to arrive... Quite the contrary with Gustav - I KNEW we were screwed before it hit Cuba!

Edit - Oh LOL, sure glad you clarified that ya didn't go extracting Aqua's precious teeth! Dang...Never can be sure 'bout odd practices of former native europeans!


Anyway, all that extra data-ingestion sure put all the models closer on the same page for this morning... All agree Trof #1 arrives to force break in Atl-CONUS ridging pattern to turn Irene NW / NNW away from FL, then lifts out but leaves sizable weakness in between along the E coast... Not surprising, our 2 best global models (IMO) the GFS and ECMWF - even before the extra data input - the solution at 96-120 hrs between those two was probably much less than NHC avg error in time / distance, hard to judge the ECM's crude depiction we have available but they might be within 100 miles or so... With ECM leaning toward a hit closer to Wilmington, the GFS a bit more E, closer to just inland or over OBX... The NHC would like to see better agreement on the track beyond 72 hrs but for intents and purposes concerning what will be a very large hurricane with far-reaching impact where it hits, the guidance seems clear enough what is most probable - a good reminder why NHC keeps insisting to not focus on exact track line, particularly with this storm... We'll see what happens and look for deviations... Of course, I'm still hoping / wishing Irene turns as far EWD as can with a weakened Atl ridge, but... East Coasters, we feel your pain!

Wish as we might, appears that long-wave trof number two - one that could sweep it out to sea - won't arrive till after it hits E coast, the Atl ridge should hold firm enough to lift Irene N / NNE (and any WWD building of the Atl ridge - or bridging of the two - in the early stage will be on the S side, esentially helping scoop the TC up)... North Carolina, right up the entire E coast... NHC mentioned a series of weak short waves in between that might cause brief influences, but given the size of Irene, should not significantly influence the track...

Currently, Irene is still organizing and certainly it's close proximity to Hispaniola has been disruptive enough to hold it back... some dry air has still been entraining... and it's anticyclone aloft is displaced to the right a bit from a small upper trof to the left, causing the moderate S / SW shear and limited outflow on it's W side... all expected to improve over next 24-36 hrs, but we'll watch... As I have stressed for quite some time, Irene is and will be a very large hurricane that steadily ramps up in intensity and I see it in similar terms as H Ike and other above avg size storms - might not get stronger than Cat 3 but exhibiting a very wide wind radius (and thus, tremendous swells / waves / surge / expansive wind damage potential)... I think it could peak near 140 mph at some point, but 125 seems an appropriate expectation, weakening some by landfall but spreading H to TS force winds over a broad region... As a reference, H Ike had H force winds extending 110-120 miles / TS force radius of 275! ... Doubt this one will challenge that, but will be curious how broad Irene gets...

Okay, enough of my speculation, lol... Dey got experts here for that... ;)

(EDIT: Wow, just caught the news of the significant 5.9 mag earthquake SW of DC, felt all along E coast!
Dang, don't hafta ask what's next, we know... good grief!)

(2nd Edit, 2:30 PM - Noting 12Z ECMWF has come around closer to GFS, farther E with near OBX solution... Also on GFS analysis, see short wave induced upper trof over Appalachians near / or after NC landfall time frame again increasing upper level S / SW shear over system as lifts N / NNE...)

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
170. LakeWorthFinn
3:09 PM GMT on August 23, 2011
Even though the track has shifted a tad East again, I can't help a shy sigh of relief, but feel so bad for the people in Bahamas and nearby islands. My home altar has a Buddhist statue, a crystal Jesus, a Hindu goddess, a little golden angel, Jain writings, Native American stones, St. Francis of Assisi (for all animals, of course), a bronze yak butter candle holder from Tibet with a tea light, prayer beads, Aqua's shark teeth and other relics in Jacksonville sand bowl, Chinese good luck carvings and other sacred objects, pics of loved ones and lotsa nice stones I've gathered on my travels far and wide. It's lit day and night now, either with a butterfly lamp or a candle, with prayers for all who are suffering and in danger. Can't hurt to have Universal Forces present, and prayers are powerful thoughts...


{{{BF}}}, post the legs pic everywhere, it may scare Irene away from the whole US coast! LOL

PS. For those who worry about Aqua's present state of mouth, a quick clarification: She's not teethless, the shark teeth were gathered from her beach...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
169. code1
10:21 PM GMT on August 22, 2011
Feeling a bit bad over my almost illicit pleasure of her not coming to GOM. Hoping for the best for eastern coastal friends tho. Guess we do eventually share the "love". T&L here now. More noise than precip much to pup's dislike. Thundershirts work great tho. My boy gets almost comatose in his, while my girl still needs a dose of Rescue Remedy. Thinking she is a bit high-strung like me. LOL
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
168. DocNDswamp
10:05 PM GMT on August 22, 2011
Hey Shore,
Yes, I had read about that earlier - special launches at multiple locations all along the E coast, get a better coordinated sampling for the Irene forecast... I know the NWS often sends up special launches regionally anticipating severe wx events, etc, and NHC has done this in past but not sure with this much areal coverage...

Interesting it is, and NOAA has their Gulfstream IV jet sampling upper air too this eve ahead of Irene's path, should greatly assist this difficult forecast with the models incorporating the data...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
167. shoreacres
9:18 PM GMT on August 22, 2011
Howdy, Doc - monsoon trough would be great. If we have to do the ridge, we will, though. ;)

I just came in for a little break from the heat and found something on the main that might interest you. Atmoaggie's post at #1734 shows a graphic of locations where multiple balloons were launched today at the request of the NHC - 18Z I believe was the time. Interesting. I don't remember ever hearing about that before, although it could go on all the time.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
166. DocNDswamp
6:57 PM GMT on August 22, 2011
Hello Shore!

Wow, I bet Hugo gave 'em a wild ride on that boat!
But, plenty have done same here, albeit tied up / anchored in an inland canal, relatively safe / secure... LOL, prolly safer than us riding it out inside homes with trees crashing around! I remember plenty overhyped concern when media reported such during pre-Gustav - "oh how they put their children in harm's way"... sheeesh, they all faired very well, thank you...

LOL, love that pic of mellow Miss Dixie! That's the spirit... ;)

Okay, one request -
Yes, I know it's been a lil warm, somewhat dry in Texas for oh, some time now... but if ya'll could just perhaps see your way to keeping that ridge in place a little wee bit longer, say another 4-6 weeks, sure would appreciate it... promise will send a very nice cold front with abundant rain after...

Or, perhaps y'all might be interested in a big broad, wet monsoon trof set-up over the entire Gulf come September that drifts NW in time?

And as I speak, the loud fresh crack of thunder announces itself, just in time to ruin my planned work outside!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
165. LakeWorthFinn
6:52 PM GMT on August 22, 2011
Hi OGal!
" famous last words" on the nails...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
164. OGal
6:38 PM GMT on August 22, 2011

Well Doc that isn't good news. i will be good and watch,get readt abd wait.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
163. DocNDswamp
6:36 PM GMT on August 22, 2011
Hiya LeO Gal, good to hear from ya!

I know what you mean... gotta break the storm pre-preps in separate stages - but yeah, it can get frustrating (yet equally a relief) determining one's reached stage 3 critical, only to call it off last minute... always a tough decision...

Hoping the same thing on that cold front - Dig, baby, dig... and send reinforcements!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
162. shoreacres
6:31 PM GMT on August 22, 2011
Hiyas, Doc ~ Well, it's hurricane season for sure now, with Bug running hither and yon. ;)
It would be good to see that baby turned out to sea, but I fear someone is going to have to cope. It may be farther north than projected now - I hope those folks are paying attention, too. You mentioned Hugo - I had some friends who'd just purchased a boat and rode Hugo out on that thing. They decided they probably wouldn't do that again.

You know one of the great advantages of living on the Gulf coast is that we can run pretty far inland in several directions if we have to. If you're on the outer banks, not so easy.

I was sorry to hear about your kitty. We do get so attached - can't imagine being without my Dixie after all these years, but the day will come. Still, she's living a pretty good life, and doesn't seem to be too het up about any hurricane yet!

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
161. DocNDswamp
6:28 PM GMT on August 22, 2011
Hmmm, well just to throw cold water on all the east-casting of the other models, the latest 12Z GFDL keeps a bullseye right into SE FL... as very strong Cat 4 nearing SE coast at 90 hrs - 921 mb, 132 kts / 151 mph.

Might be another 24-36 hrs before a clearer view of Florida's fate can be determined...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
160. OGal
6:19 PM GMT on August 22, 2011

Afternoon Doc, Leo cat reporting in. This is not a happy cat but a lazy cat. I don't want to do all I have to do and then have no major problems. Well, actually have been preparing. I just hope Orlando is not on the list of places Irene wants to visit. I really don't think she would hit it off well with Mickey and Minnie. Anyway just waiting and watching and getting stuff done. Fingers crossed that the cold front coming down from the north will be stronger than expected and Irene can exit stage sharp right =)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
159. LakeWorthFinn
5:49 PM GMT on August 22, 2011
Guilt Doc? Throw it away, you've got more than your fare share of trouble! We on the SE coast are overdue for a cane.
I have no fear, nails med long as always, thanks to you and other great weather people here on WU. I was so fortunate in 2005 to find yalls! :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
158. DocNDswamp
5:29 PM GMT on August 22, 2011
Always a great idea, Finn... any more unexpected jogs I hope will trend more NWD sooner and EWD after! Irene surprised me some last night with it's more NW motion at landfall and across Puerto Rico as I'd guessed it would hit S coast / exit over W half... but went right over San Juan...

And today's 12Z GFS - which initialized Irene's position very well - does offer hope for SC, but at expense of coastal NC as it does trend more NEWD... bending more to the right has been in play with nearly all models last day or two, let's keep it going!

Irene has had us chewing our nails off for days!
Might be nothing but nubs left by Thursday... ;)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
157. LakeWorthFinn
4:59 PM GMT on August 22, 2011
LOL Bug... gargle w/beer. Be safe on da hills.

Doc, I stacked supplies on Saturday and am prepared in case of an unexpected jog. Has happened before...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
156. DocNDswamp
4:27 PM GMT on August 22, 2011
Hiya and Monday greetings Finn and Bug!

Sheeesh, I almost feel guilty NOT being in da cone... I'm ready to retire Irene's name just based on model projections alone!

Finn, I know you're not letting your guard down, but does appear better chance for Irene to turn more, pass offshore with last several reliable model runs... that said, this continues to shape up as one very large hurricane (Ike-like!) with far-reaching impact - at the least FL will deal with enormous waves / rip currents / beach erosion.. already w TS winds extending 160 miles N of center...

Bug, I hear ya, I'd be close to panic mode myself viewing the best available forecast right now... on the bright side, I see you've properly priortized the pre-storm checklist! Hoping / praying something changes but I'm sure the comparisons to Hugo are running high about now...

Does not look likely but wishfully hoping the darn thing would encounter weaker steering currents, slow to crawl / stall well offshore of JAX and await the next deeper frontal trof to kick it out... Otherwise a severe E coast impact from a large major hurricane looms as been long advertised...

Keeping all of you east coasters in my thoughts / prayers this week...
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155. palmettobug53
4:18 PM GMT on August 22, 2011

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
154. palmettobug53
11:04 PM GMT on August 21, 2011



VIP papers? Check.

Beer? Check.

Family photos? Check.

Beer? Check.

Change of undies? Check.

Beer? Check.

Gas for truck? Check.

Beer? Check.

Toothbrush? Check.

Beer? Check.

Mouthwash? Che... Ah, never mind. Gargle with beer.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
153. LakeWorthFinn
10:18 PM GMT on August 21, 2011
Told ya Irene = b!tC#... Glad you're not in da cone :)
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152. DocNDswamp
5:38 PM GMT on August 17, 2011
Hey, you're welcome Finn!

Sheeesh, they had some kind of interruption on Jeff's last night that shut the blog down... It gets that crazy, I won't even attempt posting there... heck yeah, Skye, Levi, Bob 03, Kori, several others offer reasonable options of info and opinion... Beell also very knowledgeable and realistic when he's blogging...

Just looked at few more Atl wave details via GFS analysis - appears upper level easterlies that accompanied the wave, surrounding it are bit too high / a little unfavorable currently, modelled to improve by developing anti-cyclone aloft by 72-96 hrs as near Windwards... We'll watch and see...

LOL, I've paid little attention to 93L in the Carib lately, so hope not make an ass of myself on any "assuming" of it's likely destiny... It might become TS Harvey as reaches Cen Am, but... then that would leave us a scary scenario with that potentially ugly Irene! ;) ... But I should give up guessing future names - earlier pegged 92L / 93L as possible Franklin / Gert, lol...

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
151. LakeWorthFinn
5:19 PM GMT on August 17, 2011
Thanks swampdawg :)
Yeah, Dr. Jeff's blog will be such a jungle that I will not be able to fing your comments there, nor Skye's, Levi's etc. Glad you all have your own blogs to run to for hassle-freee info!
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150. DocNDswamp
4:58 PM GMT on August 17, 2011
Howdy Miss Finn,

"Jamie is going to Key West for the weekend, and I just saw this - anything mischievous in your eyes ?"

I did see that sat view late last night w abundant tstms, but no, doesn't appear tropically mischievious. More related to recent trof that dug down over FL.

Too bad Jamie's not there today as activity has calmed down... but increased scat tstms possible ahead thru weekend, brief squally wx, probably biggest risk being the lightning as usual... Usual caution advised, but he knows that, so best wishes for fine trip!

And far better than the ugly outlook for the next weekend to follow, as GFS model still insisting the large Atl wave to develop, maintaining threat to FL with nearly every run... It does make me curious / nervous since that model overstated / over-developed some of the systems we've had already, so I'm apprehensive on what it's indicating now... Some GFS runs have brought into GOM as far W as here, but majority want to target FL-Carolinas... Last ECMWF run holds it weaker initially, missing the islands as lifts farther N but still tracking toward FL, w further development off the coast by / beyond 10 days... Of course, still way too early for any confidence from either.

Nonetheless, vis imagery shows that wave has a very large well-defined circulation envelope, but little convection yet... Should see that begin to build as moves over warmer waters next couple days... Historically, the time / conditions are getting ripe for a bonafide hurricane to develop and threat for US impact rising, particularly with break / weakness between the Atl and CONUS steering ridges. This sure might be our last week to enjoy without a serious tropical concern for some time.

LOL, Dr Jeff's blog might totally implode by next week w 20-30 comments per minute...

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
149. LakeWorthFinn
4:47 AM GMT on August 17, 2011
LOL! But I'm glad you like to use more words, I UNDERSTAND them :)

Duh... I saw Gert-ex-Emily curve out, was so close and yet so far, that we didn't get a single drop out of it. But a week of rains have made up for it. I totally missed Franklin - slept a bit late that day :) So yes, Harvey is next. Besides da drainbamage gets to you and the alphabet real quickly...
I don't wish canes to anybody, but looks like Harvey-wannabe will stay away from your coast.

Jamie is going to Key West for the weekend, and I just saw this - anything mischievous in your eyes ?

Irene is not a name I like (have known 3 in person and they've been mean b!tc#es) so I already have shivers down my spine with that name relating to a blob - Sorry to all nice Irenes out there, this doesn't concern you :)

I hope you'll have time to give quick updates if/when we get in da cone of doom.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
148. DocNDswamp
3:55 AM GMT on August 17, 2011
I know Finn... to think, those silly cats had to audacity to eat all of the... er, cat food!

Hmmmm, Frankie done came / gone... but it's an easy excuse you missed or forgot Franklin - was one of those 24-36 hr wonders that barely earned a name, raced off to NE as fishy (much like TS Cindy did) over N Atl... and TS Gert passed safely E of Bermuda, now transitioned to decaying post-tropical system, also headed NE... Gert actually developed off partial remnants of Emily that circled back round the ridge, also managed to rip up / absorb what had appeared on model runs to be a promising African ELY wave to it's SE - 92L...

Meanwhile, 93L at lower latitude missed the N turn, currently sliding W / WNW across Caribbean w chance for development as slows / nears W Carib... but should keep generally going W / WNW into Cen Am / Yucatan, maybe lower BOC... And we have the latest African wave WSW of Cape Verde that models have gone nuts over last several cycles - BEARS WATCHING for later development perhaps by weekend as nears Windwards / enters E Carib... and beyond, no solid clue if becomes another weak fizzler or a devastating hurricane we'll never forget... certainly we'll wanna keep up by next week on possible future impact. Anyhow, next two named storms will be Harvey and Irene...

Damn, I coulda shortened all that crap and just said Harvey's next, lol!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
147. LakeWorthFinn
12:45 AM GMT on August 17, 2011
Spot, Shorty and Fuzzy prolly slipped into my boat one of those nights (aided and abetted in spirit by Mickey and my own two, Minnie and Missy, all of 'em alluring females ya know, lol)... Clearly, Moo Kitty and Crash were partying their furry butts off with the cute Louisiana cousins, and while we half-drunk / stoned humans were, er, distracted - DEM LOLCATS EATED UP all our Felix Pat├ę stash!

Cold case resolved!!! I actually thought you or Sub suffered from terrible late nite hunger attacks after all them Felix tubes were sucked empty every morning. (Yeah right, it's always the female's fault LOL!)
Spot and the rest of da gang on the other side, I envy you, "All You Can Eat" Felix buffet now...
And no wonder NOLA's rum balls tasted more like balls than rum... LMAO

I don't like seeing the Atlantic blob-train either, and this closest one may become Franklin, but I have a hard time believing something named Franklin could harm the country he so cherished.
Time for GOM salute Damon!
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