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SE LA obs: into September we go!

By: DocNDswamp , 7:09 PM GMT on June 28, 2010

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For observations, commentary and additional updated information please refer to the comments section within...


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283. DocNDswamp
6:17 PM GMT on September 21, 2010
Tue Sep 21...

...or maybe I won't, will post the Karl analysis at later date... as 95L (our 3rd of season) is steadily materializing on schedule as expected to crawl WWD across S Carib... The subtropical steering ridge remains well established above (actually strengthens) to track 95L right toward Nicaragua-Honduras... We could see 95L become TD 15 within next 36 hrs, becoming TS Matthew shortly after and could become a hurricane before making landfall around Fri night... (edit: Note the NHC has upped chances to 50% now)... GFS has been all over this coming storm (and complicated evolution), long targeting Honduras as center of attention, with past few adjusting track of the imminent development of 95L more SWD toward Puerto Cabezas in NE Nicaragua, but we'll watch...

However, dissipation over Cen AM or continuation into E Pac does NOT appear likely, as we'll see major changes in the steering evolution as the ridging over CONUS breaks down by weekend / early next week thanks to a CONUS cold front and large deepening Mid-Upper level cut-off low expected to develop and drop down over lower MS Valley / N Gulf region, that will bring delightfully, cooler more Fall temps by early next week here... But with the subtropical ridge going poof over the area - sets up farther E over Atlantic and over W CONUS-MX - appears it will leave the TC's circulation intact to stall / slowly drift NWD over Cen AM and above Honduras for several days under nearly non-existent to weak steering, which could cause monumental flooding woes in Cen AM...

Now for some speculation / interpretation of GFS guidance based on past several runs (and I've been saving every cycle's outlook since Sep 14th for persistence / consistency on this system since came off Africa around Sep 13th)... It becomes really interesting to watch how this plays out by next week, and it's not exactly clear if same low remains intact or new low forms (and perhaps a new named storm!) above Honduras, given the prospects ahead... As I've been mentioning forever, lol, the overall set-up is for the Cen AM monsoon trof to become engaged, shift / expand more ENEWD over the W Carib-S GOM region and we could see a transformation of that Honduras low become a very large circulation such as a monsoon depression type feature that is more common in the W Pacific...

Additionally, with the MJO advancing EWD now becoming more favorable to enhance activity, several GFS runs have indicated we could have multiple lows try form during the period, to possibly include a Tehuantepec or E Pac low to the W or SW, and another near Haiti - which could well happen... But overall scheme, seems the Honduran Gulf low should become the dominant feature to watch - the Haiti low could become a separate storm that lifts NWD, while the E Pac low gets absorbed into the Honduras low's larger circulation... Fascinating to ponder we could actually have 3 named storms over next 10 days or so outta all this! As such, this process will slowly evolve, going beyond medium range guidance limit of 192 hrs out, at this time... However, what it has indicated beyond is another deepening E CONUS frontal trof that picks up both the cut-off low over N Gulf region AND the large sprawling W Carib storm, that - at this time - appears greatest threat could be to either Florida / Bahamas, or both around mid to late next week...

About my best guess / analysis at this point, certainly bears watching as could become biggest threat to US yet...

Also, with the favorable MJO, Cen AM monsoon trof expanded, and ELY waves continuing, additional development in Caribbean likely in weeks ahead that will offer more potential US threats for October with frontal trofs digging across...

We shall see...

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
282. DocNDswamp
4:16 PM GMT on September 20, 2010
Mon Sep 20...

Glad to see long-lived monster-sized Igor weakened to Cat 1 with it's close pass by well-fortified Bermuda, which had TS force winds over 24 hrs... a peak of 74 mph sustained / 93 mph gust... Steadily improving wx there now...

The Cape Verde system, Invest 94L could be declared TD / TS Lisa at any time and could well stay in that region...

Of more local concern, much as been advertised in this time frame, watching what has been a barely distinguishable weak ELY wave that came off Africa Sep 13th behind Julia crawling along the ITCZ, now approaching S Windwards with blossoming convection today (as we saw with Karl)... This should become Invest 95L in time, and may not see development until reaches SW-W Caribbean later this week... Given the wide-ranging multitude of options beyond medium range forecasting, EVERYONE west and north of the Cen Caribbean will be monitoring future possibilities... Do keep in mind what I've mentioned previously, should this feature fully engage the Cen Am Monsoon trof, which has shown signs of more NEWD migration, we could have a system as large in breadth as Igor... Just saying... Nothing "written in stone" yet...

But what I will "write in stone" is this - Hurricane Karl's operational intensity as a much overly-hyped Cat 3 115 mph major at landfall will be severely downgraded in post-season re-analysis! Oh, the NHC / HRD prolly won't honestly demote it as strongly as they should... or have, say, hurricanes that have hit Louisiana for example, but IMHO Karl at landfall was at most - a high end Cat 1 of 90 mph!

And yes, I saved the pertinent data to support my argument... maybe I'll post it here while we wait for next threat to materialize...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
281. DocNDswamp
2:51 PM GMT on September 17, 2010
See a hint of Karl's motion being slightly WSW, appears landfall will be just above Veracruz near the point where Cempoala (Zempoala) located around noon hour... then pass either over Jalapa (about 35-40 miles inland), or just below might put them in the N sect of eyewall / storm's north quad... (Veracruz State map)...

Watching Karl on Alvarado radar when possible - server heavily overloaded, lol... last couple frames appears eye contracting a bit...

And on NASA vis imagery...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
280. DocNDswamp
1:53 PM GMT on September 17, 2010
Fri Sep 17...

Good morning Finn and Barefoot!
Great to have ya back, Miss Finn!
Yes, hoping the season calms down some, now that you're back to help reign it in, lol... ;)
Yes, still concerned for our amigos down there...

LOL, lacking a bit of sleep here, but was curious about Karl's status... see it made it to Cat 3, 120 mph / 956 mb per NHC... bringing our seasonal numbers now to 11-6-5 - any upward revision of Alex would have every hurricane a major!
Karl is potent, but quite compact - hurricane force winds outward to 25 miles and does appear will go past Veracruz about 25-30 miles to the N... but would seem not so good for Jalapa, as should pass right over... Reported winds so far in Veracruz and those buoys nearby linked above - with Karl just 35-40 miles away - are quite minimal, considering... Not sure about accuracy, but here's the WU link to Jalapa's weather station... (and noting last report over 2 hrs old)... To the north, here's Poza Rica's link...

Even knowing how confined the wind field is, I'll go back to my original point being curious about actual winds we'll see recorded at the surface...
Time will tell...

Nonetheless, the hvy flooding rains will cause trouble...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
279. Barefootontherocks
12:57 PM GMT on September 17, 2010
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
278. LakeWorthFinn
12:45 PM GMT on September 17, 2010
Hi Doc, BF and other friends! I'm back in FL and joining in with your prayers for and wishes for safety to all those on the path of the hurricanes.
All well here and having a permanent internet connection back I'll be able to read the updates :)
PS. We were following Danielle when I left, what a difference 3 weeks make...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
277. DocNDswamp
6:15 AM GMT on September 17, 2010
Hey Barefoot, just checking back...

Ya know, I kept mentioning Veracruz, but to the NW just a bit inland and upland, the state's capital, highly populated Jalapa (Xalapa Enriquez) also lies in Karl's path... so lotta folks between those two metros at risk with winds and floods, hoping it doesn't ramp up much more as closes in...

Have noted last few frames the overall structure seems a bit elongating, and outflow restricted all along NW side w westerlies digging across above, lol, just not sure if could limit the intensifying we've seen to status quo leveling off before landfall, as internal core looks well organized... Already at 105 mph / 967 mb is strong enough!

Indeed, prayers for our friends down SE MX!
Will back check in morn...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
276. Barefootontherocks
4:24 AM GMT on September 17, 2010
Hi DocNDswamp,
Rough day for Mexico tomorrow. And tomorrow, too, Igor's winds will reach Bermuda. I join you in best wishes and prayers for these two countries.

Add: Oh. Where are my manners? G'nite, Doc.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
275. DocNDswamp
3:28 AM GMT on September 17, 2010

"It's actual intensity at landfall could reach 90-100 mph, and at this time I'm leaning toward thinking it not becoming a major hurricane..."

Appears an adjustment to THAT mindset is in order...

As per 10 PM NHC advisory -

LOCATION...19.7N 94.5W

With Karl's excellent sat presentation, compact size, a small tight eye forming... and another 12-15 hrs or so before landfall, Karl may be a very healthy Cat 3 then! It's tightly wound structure is a bit reminiscent of '04's Hurricane Charley... While may not get that strong, some incredible damage is likely along a narrow path, with landfall slightly farther S between Nautla and Veracruz... along with expected intense flooding rainfall over the affected area... Obviously, should Karl track with more a WSW motion will put populated Veracruz in even greater danger...

Prayers / best wishes to all in the region!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
274. DocNDswamp
5:28 PM GMT on September 16, 2010
Thu Sep 16...

And now with Karl declared a hurricane less than 12 hrs after making "seafall" into the BOC, the seasonal count rises to 11-6-4... Karl organized quickly into TS before moving into Yucatan, and not surprising with a strengthening system, maintained itself with the overland journey...

At least, Karl has excellent organization / vorticity above the sfc thru mid levels, but as mentioned 2 days ago when was wrapping up, still somewhat curious about it's actual surface wind speeds... Granted, the wind field must be rather compact / limited, and will watch data from buoys near Karl, but recorded winds so far have been less than expected... As Karl passed very close to Chetumal yesterday (doused with 6.54" rain), peak sustained wind recorded was 23, gust to 41 mph, far less than advertised 65... and saw similar report from Belize... likewise, max sustained at Campeche was 26 mph last night as exited...

That said, Karl sure looks great on satellite images, a strong well developed core with a large anticyclone developed aloft in support... and we likely will see those higher winds transported to sfc over next 36 hrs or so and by time it reaches the MX coast, as should continue to intensify... Appears Karl has been tracking generally more west, and should make landfall somewhere near Nautla / Poza Rica, well below Tampico... It's actual intensity at landfall could reach 90-100 mph, and at this time I'm leaning toward thinking it not becoming a major hurricane... LOL, unless I see actual winds recorded to support it!

Dunno, just thinking out loud here...
Might be having another "open mouth, insert hoof" moment... ;)

GFS continues advertising trouble in long range outlook for Gulf region to end September... apparently from the weak ELY wave disturbance that exited Africa behind Julia that eventually develops as approaches / enters Caribbean next week... Of course, all speculation right now, we'll see if materializes first, but if does as projected it's final destination and possible threat to US Gulf states appears will all depend on timing / strength of a potentially strong cold front coming across in that period... or whether the S CONUS ridge remains locked in or rebuilds behind it... Lotta options for somethin', or nuthin'... ya know the drill... LOL...

Meanwhile - it still looks ugly for Bermuda with Igor passing close by to the west, even if degenerates to Cat 2 by then... Right now, don't think Igor will go past 67W (edit: may well turn NWD along 65W as NHC current projection shows)... Guess still a chance Igor could pass to E of the island, but either way they should certainly have quite an impact from this big dog...

Be back later when can...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
273. DocNDswamp
4:08 PM GMT on September 14, 2010
Tue Sep 14...

Delightful all-too-brief taste of Fall this morn here under clear skies / dry air / NELY sfc flow as HUML1 dropped to 63F (and KHUM to 66F)... coolest reading since May 10th... Yep, returning to muggies ahead but as said before, given the tropics prolly do not wanna see a strong frontal trof digging down yet, as it would be our undoing... Ridge overhead rules, even though we've seen CONUS westerlies descend SWD just enough to give us a lil Fall hint now / then (this was our 3rd front to pass)...

92L looking a bit better, appears gaining a sfc swirl... obs from area buoys show declining pressure / wind shift but not very impressive yet with wind speeds... Maybe a TD before Yucatan, better probability for TS Karl in BOC on Thu-Fri as continues WWD into E MX below Tampico... 92L's failure to organize yet, struggle with swath of dry air to W and N that many storms in the past have easily overcome may be result of the unfavorable, suppressive MJO influence... otherwise, parameters looked decent... As 92L enters the Cen Am monsoon trof region, should find conditions enhanced enough to counter the MJO, like others before it...

Speaking of which - if believable, forecasts for the MJO propagation show it becoming more favorable for TC's in our region around the last week Sep thru 1st 2 weeks October... Combine with likelihood of stronger cold fronts digging down, and any of those long range GFS runs raising eyebrows could become a dire reality... And I'm still concerned with the Cen Am monsoon trof lifting in latitude, getting recentered more NEWD as a broader pattern in the weeks ahead time frame... Other than BOC / SW Gulf activity, we've been fortunate so far in the Gulf states, but somebody's luck could run out during the slow, seasonal pattern shift... Still 45% of the season left, and lol, with the count at 10-5-3 now, my pre-season opinion of 15-8-4 does appear a little conservative... We'll see...

It's been interesting (and of relief so far) watching the 2010 Atlantic Fish Storm Parade, but... add my vote of concern that Igor represents a high threat of hitting Bermuda as a major hurricane this weekend...

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
272. DocNDswamp
6:01 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Hey Barefoot,

Very glad you didn't see the worse of da "Her Mean" flooding! Like it did in S Cen TX, as you've seen, the stretch from just above McAlester-Fort Smith was nailed! On the bright side, now appears the next feature will be kinda barren as comes across your area...

Yes, lol, don't need additional tropical memories to add to collection but we know it's a matter of time... Wow, check out today's 12Z GFS at 192 hrs out - 4 tropical cyclones at one time! Next wave behind Igor might become Julia before the 92L Carib disturbance...

Seems little has come from Gaston, and glad that Sat run previously mentioned of it blowing up, quickly changed in all subsequent cycles to what we see now... But more threats on the way... Was a little surprised with NHC declaring Igor as soon as did in it's highly sheared state, as in past with two nearby lows usually wait to see how they interact / consolidate... Was a funny looking graphic they had yesterday showing Igor and the other low a mere 150 miles to the NE, showing slight chance of development, lol...

Gotta run,
Have a good 'un, BF!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
271. Barefootontherocks
4:46 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Hi DocNDswamp,
Thanks for dropping by my blog. Stayed up till 1 am watching Ex-TD Hermine move into E OK. The rainfall amounts grew and grew as it crossed the State.

Did not see coming the trouble that came to light this morning! Well, sometimes what's sitting on the other side of the teeter-totter jumps off and, surprise, you hit the ground. The nature of the balance beast, I guess.

Sincerely hope tropical troubles for you and all of SE LA surface only as memories of past storms!

Geaux Saints... echo, echo.

Stay in that music zone.

Take care!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
270. DocNDswamp
2:58 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Thu Sep 9th...

Too busy to be here, but...

Looking at sat imagery and past day's worth of GFS runs strongly indicate new Invest 92L, the 1009 mb blob growing near S Windwards bears monitoring by all from Nicaragua to the Gulf over next week / 10 days or so, as could become Julia... On the N fringe of 92L, saw some arc clouds bust NWD interacting with the dry air above on vis sat, but the system has plentiful ITCZ moisture to draw from... Will watch for persistence... LOL, as much as would like a strong cold front to bring in the Fall wx, along this time frame might not be a good idea - would prefer seeing the "protecting" hot ridge just hang in for a bit...

Also seeing some runs showing something occasionally in long range I've mentioned possible in time - the Cen Am monsoon trof recentering farther NEWD that could spawn further ugliness... May or not happen, but '98's TS Frances came from such and as minor as may sound, the wind field size was along the lines of Hurricane Ike - extremely huge, as TS warnings covered ALL of coastal Texas and Louisiana to the LA / MS border and brought widespread flooding from torrential downpours and high tidal surge fully across the warned areas... Just speculating ATT, given the overall set-up this season...

Otherwise, on this date (9-10th) - the 45th anniversary of the eve of Hurricane Betsy's devastating blow to SE LA... Lasting memories indeed...

Oh... and it's Who Dat time again - Geaux Saints!!!

Back to regularly scheduled blogs,
Over and outta heah...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
269. DocNDswamp
7:05 PM GMT on September 07, 2010
Tue Sep 7...

Locally for SE LA, ridging building back in from E, only a few iso shwrs, even less next few days - hot and muggy rules with next front for us maybe by early next week, if then... as we watch Hermine lift NWD, rotate around ridge pattern over TX / OK then EWD over MO/AR dropping rain in deprived areas as needed... Here, had .29" amt at home from rains on Labor Day... Other than, will keep an eye on da Gaston remnant tracking across Caribbean and the Igor candidate off Africa...

So was "her mean"?
Certainly the strongest TS Hermine yet as made landfall as a 65 mph TS, with previous two in '98 and '04 pretty weak systems... While flash flooding will remain biggest issue, saw several reports of winds sustained of 45-55, lot of gusts in 50-70 range over S TX with the 72 mph at Harlingen the highest...

Kinda surprised, not by Hermine, but from remarks of "sudden development", "some caught offguard" and such as this certainly is NOT unusual to see a BOC system ramp up any given year, and esp this season... Besides Alex and TD 2, we've had a parade of several potential waves / lows that had a chance if only they weren't steadily shifting WWD inland (or into the E Pac) too quickly, insufficient time over water... And definitely aided by persistent monsoon trof pattern over the region... Also, while not uncommon either, it's notable that Hermine's formation was partly due as late last week's TD 11E broke apart with either the remnant low drifting NNE after came inland or reforming... NHC's final TD 11E advisory mentioned the chance...

Model guidance prior was quite good, even if was sketchy in med-long range views... Little was firmly indicated as late as Sep 1st runs, but noted by Thu Sep 2 the 12Z 1st showed a BOC low possible, and esp that day's 18Z GFS was remarkably accurate as clearly showed the evolution - broad area low pressure / sfc trof over SW Gulf / S MX present, Gulf Tehuantepec TD 11E formation next day, then weakens / energy split over S MX by 4th with part shifting WWD to dissipate, rest of TD 11E remnant vort low slow lifting NNE inland S MX toward BOC, reforming Sun morn Sep 5 in SW BOC along persistent sfc trof, strengthening during day into TD Sunday moving NNW, potential TS by Mon Sep 6 continuing NNW making landfall above La Pesca MX, around evening near 0Z Sep 7th - very accurate projection of what has occurred, that Sep 2 18Z track just slightly west... Only question remained to see if the low would actually get far enough offshore to consolidate, since we've seen earlier candidates fail, and a few subsequent model runs played it back / forth in placement... So nope... TS Hermine's formation time frame, track or strengthening was no surprise, par for the course in the BOC we look for every tropical season... And probably won't be the last this season... LOL, maybe Gaston has plans later if he nears the region...

Safe wishes for all badly needing rain, but not floods!

Busy schedule ahead,
BBL sometime...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
268. DocNDswamp
8:06 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
TS Hermine bearing down... thought the NHC's center fix from earlier mighta been too far SE, and clear it was... so less time for Hermine to grow before landfall, the chief limiting factor, even as we see continental dry air just to the west it's the lesser hindrance... Big convective blob waned but fresh convective regrowth firing around it's steadily deepening center again... Moving at a good clip, seems just below Brownsville this eve for landfall...


G'day Shore and Barefoot!

Looks wet fer ya Shore! LOL, for that matter a lotta storms nearby here popping up, quite a return from here WWD and my aftn work could be screwed too, lol...

LOL, untold number of records we scratched, eh?
Several so bad I replaced... Ahhh, your mention of the Lomax recordings of Lead Belly reminded me of the Robert Johnson recordings (but not by the Lomax's) of '36-'37 - I've got his King of the Delta Blues Singers, Vol 2 released in '70 but never could find the original Vol 1 compilation from '61... Glad all those obscure but highly influential artists were recorded / saved...

Alright, glad ya saw Swamp People! Yes saw "Italy Boy" on 2nd show, lol... What I like best with all of it is it's taped / filmed with very high definition pro cams / lenses... Really great aerials included, although they flash thru most too fast - like the fantastic fog-shrouded L Verret view from above... I've also noticed they blend / repeat several scenes from different locations in the captures to add excitement but it's all good... I'm familiar with most, esp Verret and B Sorrel and the ones near Myrtle Grove with Trapper Joe and with the Klieberts near Ponchartrain resemble more marsh mixed w scat cypress / willows terrain like around lakes Bouef-Des Allemands and Terrebonne's habitat S of the cypress forest ecoline - as can see, there are distinct differences in makeup, age, elevation (highest being Sorrel where fresh river sand piles up around active channels annually)... LOL, all full of big fat gators!

Wow that sounds inviting those big spanish macs, I agree with the guy at sport shop! Get some medium large top water plugs and cast around 'em for a blast of a line-zipping ride when ya hook up! LOL, they always showed up to interrupt when was trying to catch large specs on the coast!


Barefoot, yes, just too early to get sustained cooling yet... But glad you did get a taste of 50's with the last one... Seems wet is on the menu for all of us this week... esp with Hermine lifting up and that next frontal low coming, at least for you in OK... Prolly back to usual daytime seabreeze tstms later here after get Hermine / previous front lifted outta the way...

Indeed, been enjoying the playing again after a very lengthy absence... even if has been a strain on the hand - sheesh, I separated yet another another fingernail, another recurring issue that developed soon after the injury (combined with abuse from work and fishing)... Oh well, no pain / no gain, lol!

And true enough, have been in a zone lately with that acoustic, love that old dog FG 200 and it's full-bodied tone! And still haven't plugged in one of my electrics yet... although the riffs are a hella lot easier to stretch and rip on 'em... ;)

Enjoy rest of the holiday,
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
267. Barefootontherocks
5:37 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Hi Doc,
LOL. Don't be jealous. The coolth didn't last long. Tropical moisture streaming this way. Wednesday, possibly into Thursday, could get interesting. Though flash floods and severe weather may be a concern, much of Oklahoma needs the rain.

Must be a great zone to be in. Picking up and picking your Yamaha acoustic. Not to mention good for the soul. Hey, nothing to say Django wasn't right there with you in spirit. Bet he was.

Have a great holiday!

Holy mackerel!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
266. shoreacres
4:26 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Hiya, Doc,

Just got run in by some rain from the outer edges of Hermine - looks like it's going to be splash and dash for a while, and then all splash. I see the tides are rising a bit, too - hello, coastal flood watch.

I'm just getting caught up with a few things and wanted go thank you for those other Django links. Just wonderful music. And how right you are - the internet's made it so much easier for those of us who used to lift that needle time and time again to teach ourselves this or that from the masters. ;-) First time I did that was with my 12-string, and it was the Lomax recording of Lead Belly's "In the Pines". Good times, for sure.

Speaking of which - mom and I watched Swamp people last night. It was especially fun after bumping up against all the alligator posts here and there on the net. Did you see the episode with the Italian guy? Give him credit for wanting to haul in an alligator, and give those other guys even more credit for holding their breath and letting him! LOL

I mentioned over at my place I had my own fish story - this is just too great. I've been working on a boat on a private canal off Clear Lake, up on the West End. Davis Road, in League City. It's a substantial canal with plenty of deep water - proably 12 feet the whole way and lots of fish. Mullet, drum, flounder - the usual.

The other day it was sunny and I saw what looked to be muddy patches here and there in the water, like it had been stirred up. I looked closer and it wasn't mud at all - it was fish, just below the surface, and they were big. I mean, really big - like 2'-3' big. Big dorsal fins, and silvery. There must have been a dozen of them. They just kept cruising around, real lazy-like.

I kept looking for someone to show them to, and of course there was no one around. So I got smart and called over to Marburger's sporting goods in Seabrook - they're fishing crazy over there and a lot of the guides go in there. I figured they might know. Sure enough, I talked to a really nice guy who just laughed and said, "You just saw a school of Spanish mackerel!" Apparently they hang out here in the summer and then head to Eastern Florida or down to Mexico over the winter.

Anyway, the guy at Marburger's got pretty excited. WHERE are they? How many are there? How big are they? He sounded like he'd be willing to leave work RIGHT NOW to go down there and see what kind of damage he could do!

OK - off to see what the latest track for Hermine is. If they get her as far north as Corpus I may go buy an extra loaf of bread ;)

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
265. DocNDswamp
4:04 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Mon Sep 6 Labor Day...

Nice mostly dry weekend, but CAA behind front washed out over SE LA (even had a brief late aftn tshwr over S-SW Terrebonne Sat aftn) - actually, Friday's 68F was our coolest temp (69 Sun, 71 this morn)... Regional weather following expectations as we saw Invest 90L in BOC become TD 10 on Sunday, into TS Hermine this morn... Locally the front has returned NWD today, Summer muggies back with w scat shwrs and SE winds increasing, already had gust over 21... All in conjunction with TS Hermine in BOC which is growing rather impressive with healthy blob of deep convection (and FAR more consolidated than the '98 joke of a storm I always reference... this one's for real!)...

Already to 50 mph with about 12-18 hrs before making landfall under favorable conditions, Hermine could reach hurricane intensity or certainly a strong TS that could pack a punch as it likely should come ashore into far NE MX or near Brownsville in steadily intensifying phase... As seen previously with several similar disturbances this season, incl Alex and TD 2, hvy flooding rainfall over next 2-3 days will be a concern as Hermine crawls up Rio Grande, then NWD across TX pulling up copious moisture...

In between E-NE MX and SE LA - where we've had ENOUGH rain this Summer - those of you who have had abnormally dry to drought conditions should get some relief... Please keep it there, thank you, lol...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
264. DocNDswamp
7:44 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Sat Sep 4th...

Saw we had another WU crash last night, out for about 4 hrs... but posts made during the outage appeared later... Heck, I actually read thru Jeff's comments both to confirm and get a laugh at everyone talking to themselves, lol...

Very pleasant dry air / cool air advection behind our front... N LA was down to low-mid 60's this morn, they'll see 50's next couple morns, rest of us should be into 60's for a nice reprieve...

With Earl departing now into Nova Scotia and other than watching Gaston - which may indeed become a greater concern next week as per last couple GFS runs - area of interest next couple days will be in BOC where does appear a good chance could have a TD consolidated by tomorrow if the NNE-SSW sfc trof closes off a low far enough offshore as all other conditions seem favorable... and perhaps could strengthen into TS Hermine if does so before moves into E MX (and crawls up Rio Grande spreading hvy rainfall) a track much like Alex, by around Mon night / Tue morn... Certainly as sat images show, very distinct cyclonic turning over the area today...


Hiya MS Wx,
That's absolutely right, a recurve no guarantee that far ahead and last couple runs showing changes, with today's 12Z GFS showing a slowly consolidating Gaston creeping along by Tuesday over Leewards / PR / Hispaniola strengthening as lifts over Turks / Caicos / Bahamas, landfalling in S FL in about 8 days, into E Gulf with another landfall over the panhandle... Most definitely BEARS WATCHING! Chance of more WWD trend has been growing and as you mentioned with the MJO trend to positive (albeit a weak signal forecast), there may also be a teleconnection with the NAO, which latest forecasts show it also may be trending in positive direction, which could enhance subtropical ridging pattern continuity... And while the positive MJO usually indicates less lift / suppressed convection, that influence is probably at it's weakest now climatologically in the peak of Atlantic tropical season (even though perhaps, dry air entrainment issues might remain elevated)...

Hello Bug,
Very pleased Earl didn't cause ya any troubles!
And keep shaking that gris gris as sure will be more threats a'coming... Meanwhile, indeed very nice Labor Day weekend for many of us...
Best wishes, hope you enjoy the fine holiday wx!

Hey Barefoot,
Oh now that does it... 50's! I'm jealous... ;)
Guess I might wait a bit for that degree of coolth, but will make the most of what we're getting (soon as I post this!), it's delightful!

Glad to help with the Django mystery! Not familiar with other off top of my head... Tell ya what - last night with WU offline and having seen enough wx data stuff, I grabbed my Yamaha acoustic and just played his "September Song" You Tube over and over, playing along relearning the chords / melody lines and some of his riffs, clumsy as I may be... Hey we were even perfectly in key - detuned a half step to E flat... LOL, at one point thought I heard him say, "take it Doc!"... Yeah, I wish... ;)

Heck, I'm just satisfied to play some once again, as had a nasty left hand crush injury in '97 to go along with the double-jointed thumb I was born with that's always been awkward (flimsy hand support / control on the neck)... But hey, Django had a severely debilitating injury to overcome and adapt! Guess ya find a way if determined!

And LOL - Sure is a bit easier with the vast resource of I'net and You Tubes these days to learn things from, mo' better than spinning / scratching the hell outta records - if ya could find 'em - and digging thru my Mel Bay chord book, back in the day... Hmmmm, now where did I put that book? As I can't remember or define what a lotta chords are I'm playing, lol...

Cheers all, enjoy the weekend!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
263. Barefootontherocks
2:55 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Good Morning, Doc.
Nice and cool here. Dipped into mid-50s this a.m. for the first time since... I can barelyfootly remember.

Django Reinhardt. Yep, you had that right over at shore's. Sure that's how I'd heard his name. Still doesn't explain the strange "J'attendrai" tune familiarity... oh wellol.

Happy weekend. Enjoy the cool.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
262. palmettobug53
1:15 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Morning, Doc!

Earl passed us by with nothing more than the usual beach erosion and lingering rip currents.

Hanging on to my gris-gris, in hopes that the rest of the Cape Verde freight train cars keep passing us by!

It looks to be a lovely Labor Day weekend here. Just hope those folks at the beaches stay safe.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
261. MississippiWx
3:37 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Hey, Doc. Not so sure about Gaston recurving yet. If it's that far south and a weak trof (which is being depicted so far on the models) is present, I have a hard time believing Gaston would feel the effects. We'll see, though. And, as I have learned, the MJO plays a role in steering tropical cyclones farther to the west because ridges tend to build farther west in positive phases. It just so happens that a positive phase is beginning across our basin.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
260. DocNDswamp
4:34 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Fri Sep 3rd...

Steadily weakening Earl moving away from NC toward close clip of Cape Cod, and landfall into Nova Scotia...

NC's Outer Bank did receive hurricane gusts, with highest I found both around 5 AM hour with wind shifted to NNW / NW - Oregon Inlet station had sustained to 41 kts / 47 mph and a strong peak gust of 71.1 kts / 82 mph shown at 5:42 AM... while Hatteras Station HCGN7 reached sustained at 53 kts / 61 mph with a peak gust up to 68 kts / 78 mph at 5 AM... Very glad Earl weakened / shifted more EWD away to avoid a direct hit, as they still got a good lashing for lengthy period...

Locally, looking forward to the cold front which will bring noticeably cooler, much drier conditions with the "good feel" air in place for next 2-3 days - esp overnight low temps... During which, we'll also be watching the BOC once again for another low that might brew up for E MX / S TX, and eventually help coincide with frontal return / rain chances back early-mid next week... GFS still shows same outlook been showing for Gaston - regeneration later (3-5 days), tracks into E Caribbean, then keeping the recurvature theme going, gets lifted over PR or Hispaniola up into W Atl to possibly threaten either parts of E coast or Bermuda... but of course, several days to over a week away to watch developments...

Cheers, good Labor Day weekend all!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
259. DocNDswamp
6:17 AM GMT on September 03, 2010
Late evenin' / g'morning Shore!

Oh dang, sorry to hear 'bout the lockout issue, hope they get it fixed soonest for ya! Sounds as ya need put it in obedience training when get it back... I keep a sledgehammer sitting handy next to mine as a reminder jis who's da boss! LOL... luckily haven't had to use it, but I did threaten the DSL router with it, during last internet failure!

Earl's giving coastal NC a good lashing of 40-60, to 70 mph, offshore waves 24-36 ft... Sat loops of it remind me of Gustav's appearance some and it's status at last couple advisories was about same as Gus - 105 mph / 951 mb... But it managed to grow that larger center, cloud filled as it is... Shear / dry air really worked it over reducing organization sooner than expected, continues the more NNE trend, all better news for the affected!

And WOW, thanks a ton for that "September Song" link, those cats are great! Another excellent version, and a favorite thru the ages of mine as well, just love the mood!

LOL, I got absorbed replaying it (hence the late hour!), listening to version from Django in '47 - just incredibly articulate phrasing! - and several others ... Check out the nice version of "Tea For Two" from way back, with a wonderful transcription accompanying the tune for all us guitarists! Oh, I'm gonna give this a few more looks, drag the acoustic in for a session... Jeeez, I'd swear Django had ten fingers on his fretting hand instead of two he used!

Thanks again Shore!

(PS: and Sub, I do hope you see this, check those tunes out - know you'd dig it!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
258. shoreacres
3:05 AM GMT on September 03, 2010
Evening, Doc,

Thanks for the updates. I've just managed to get on for a bit - had my first honest-to-goodness computer crash today, for no apparent reason. Danged thing locked me out - wouldn't even take my password! So, after a couple of really frustrating hours, it's gone to a computer doctor, who's going to make it all better. It'll be interesting to see what the diagnosis is.

I'm so glad Earl's easing off a bit. I've been worried about PeaceRiver, who's up in Chatham.

I haven't taken a look at Gaston this evening. That one got my attention a bit - guess I'll go see what he's up to. I presume Fiona's in the process of fizzling - relatively speaking, at least.

Here's a little September song for you. I just happened across it, and it's really nice.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
257. DocNDswamp
2:15 AM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting DocNDswamp -

10:38 AM CDT: "likely will still have core winds of near 130 mph even if the slow decline we see now continues"

2 PM EDT: Downgraded to 125 mph...

2:09 PM CDT: "slow weakening should continue but still could remain near 115-120 Cat 3 strength as nears OBX"

5 PM EDT: Downgraded to 115 mph...

8 PM EDT: Downgraded to 110 mph...

Okay, another revision since I've jinxed it's intensity with each call prior -
I now believe Earl with pass offshore of Outer Banks significantly weaker than previously thought but should maintain enough integrity and it's strength at a bit more than Tropical Depression intensity...

There... that oughta do it... lol...

Little doubt it's degraded presentation due to factors mentioned earlier continued impinging on it... Also seeing a motion slightly E of due N, or about 05 degrees last couple hrs...

Again, best wishes for those that are (and will be) affected by Hurricane Earl...
Stay safe!

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
256. DocNDswamp
7:09 PM GMT on September 02, 2010
Fluctuations, structural changes continue with Earl as lifts NWD, generally along 75W... Downgraded at last advisory to 125 mph, slow weakening should continue but still could remain near 115-120 Cat 3 strength as nears OBX - regardless, still a powerful hurricane!...

Will be watching several buoys tonight, including Diamond Shoals 41025... and farther out at Station 41001 where we should see strongest winds...

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
255. DocNDswamp
4:34 PM GMT on September 02, 2010
Viewing latest (and last NHC discussion), appears Earl will not get past 75W now that it's definitely moving more close to N at 355 degrees... might get lucky if have it more like in the 100 miles offshore range, however does seem an EWRC attempt is underway which will expand the wind field... NRL microwave imagery suggest the inner eye may be collapsing, larger outer eye transformation could be taking place... And it does make me ponder the dry air entraining relevance / contribution to this process... Can see how the open the entire S half / semi-circle of inner eye has become...

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
254. DocNDswamp
3:38 PM GMT on September 02, 2010
Thu Sep 2...

(part of this from post attempt last night - yet another internet connection failure!)

Hiya Finn and Code!

Back at ya ((Finn)))!

Code, our local paper The Courier didn't even mention the Gustav anniversary yesterday, however they did ask readers for recollections of their Rita experience for a planned remembrance article ahead! F'ing amazing... I guess the criteria here for a bonafide hurricane disaster is only when flooding is involved! Never mind the widespread wind damage, hell as we know those trees were just standing in the way of f'ing progress anyway, less trees the TPCG and developers will have to cut down later... Grrrrrrr....

So true, that disgusted me when came to that part in the homemade documentary... But like ya said of the good over the bad, right after was the best part - over the next day, one 9th Ward guy walked thru chest deep or higher water, from flooded house to flooded house, carrying folks literally on his back to the safety of a larger two story home... So those survived, unknown but nearby neighbors became friends for life after... Couple weeks later after water receeded they returned, not so pretty as found other neighbors dead / decomposed who had been filmed right before the storm... Good, bad, ugly - from the desperate worst to unselfish best in folks, had a lot of gritty reality, life as is...


Earl grew to our strongest hurricane of season to 145 mph / 928 mb, still moving more NNW... Probably the two things have kept Earl from totally blowing up into a Cat 5 has been the periodic dry air entraining into the circulation and S / SW shear caused by combination of the Gulf ULL and Earl being not ideally situated under it's anticyclone aloft - on the far western perimeter of it... LOL, I hope folks in FL and the Gulf coast realize how important that upper air evolution / formation of the Gulf Mid-ULL was in helping force Earl's track away from us!

From last night, was thinking just hope doesn't go past 75W before turning more N, certainly if reaches as far as near 76W the OBX could really get raked over with direct hit... Most guidance still indicates a more N turn before then, tracks it just enough offshore to avoid the eyewall... An excruciating tough call! Certainly anyone on the islands trying to decide on evac at last minute had better do so, by like now! ... with conditions steadily downhill this aftn... Closest approach - or strike - still looks lil after midnight to 4 AM on OBX and likely will still have core winds of near 130 mph even if the slow decline we see now continues - might see another EWRC or fluctuation too... Sure wanna see that more N motion soon, obvious to say, Earl needs to be at least 50-60 miles east of OBX... and may not be much farther than that as it looks now... LOL, don't let the "weak side" fool ya!

Best wishes to those in it's path!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
253. code1
1:10 AM GMT on September 02, 2010
#250 Yeppers! Just 'cause there is lessor numbers of population....it hits you? It's devastating, no city needed to be a disaster. Another point: "aint gotta worry 'bout no police bothering us today, dey all gone", followed by crowd's laughter... About 18 hrs later, while struggling thru winds / rapidly rising waters flooding the homes, while huddled in the attic and in desperation they made a frantic 911 call to police for help! And were mad that no one could come save 'em - "we got babies dat gonna drown"!

Jeezzz! That is what turned off many in the days that followed the horrific devastation. Media being media only showed the worst of the worst. Much like the no more than 17 year old CHILD with three babies on her lap in the Superdome days later. Will never forget that. She wasn't worried about food, diapers, health of her babies. She just wanted to know "where's FEMA wit my money?"

Don't think anyone really could honestly believe that NO was not devastated. However, images such as those overshadowed all the good that NO is, and in no way should it just have been NO. She was so large, she caused destruction in a wide path. At least NO "uptown and garden district" was fine. Can't say the same for neighbors east. Much like your Gustav ignored, MS was as well. The good far outweighs the bad, but it doesn't make for good news coverage. SADLY!

Yeah, I remember more than a few anxious moments over you and your area during Gustav. Was thrilled to hear all was "relatively" well so soon after the horror of Katrina in LA. Not so good news in MS/AL and even the beach and wind damage in my beloved town 250 MILES AWAY! Monster she was.

Be they all beautiful and fun to watch, but may they hit no coastlines. I really feel for the islands thus far this year. Take care, and shake the gris gris bag a time or two for our beloved GOM. No area needs it, but she needs to heal from more than just past canes and oil spillage. Greed comes to mind. Perhaps Ma Nature is just taking back what is rightfully hers? Ohhmmmmmmmm

Really hoping that all will realize those smaller areas, and under served as is PL's mission. Seems I believe in it now more than ever.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
252. LakeWorthFinn
8:26 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
251. DocNDswamp
6:16 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
But oh my... oh my!
The GFS 12Z has Earl's W eyewall about scraping the OBX and lifting more NWD closer along E coast... not good!

And LOL, guess the NHC will notice how it now develops TD 9 pretty well... into another hurricane!
C'mon cold fronts! Puhleeeze dig down as indicated!

(Hi res version not available yet to see better details, comes out a bit later)

Okay, I'm really outta here...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
250. DocNDswamp
5:42 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
Wed Sep 1st 2010...

Ooooo, 2nd anniversary of Gustav... Dang, and the media is just ignoring it, lol... and I will too having just returned licking my wounds from the still raging battlefields of Katrina... ;)

Actually, remembered later another point of contention with the article as all 3 storms - Camille, Katrina, Betsy - actually approached from SE, with B continuing on NWWD, while C & K turned more NWD so he's in error saying "Katrina approached from the South-Southwest, very similar to Hurricane Camille in 1969", as neither ever went past 90W relative to NOLA... LOL, but I've seen worse errors in statements of historical context...

There was one Katrina program I did watch over weekend, "Trouble the Water", shot mostly on home video by 9th Ward resident before / during / after that revealed some irony - day before Kat hit as neighbors were leaving, those staying had gathered late aftn, at one point remarking to effect "aint gotta worry 'bout no police bothering us today, dey all gone", followed by crowd's laughter... About 18 hrs later, while struggling thru winds / rapidly rising waters flooding the homes, while huddled in the attic and in desperation they made a frantic 911 call to police for help! And were mad that no one could come save 'em - "we got babies dat gonna drown"!
Yeah... right on... called reality people, deal with it as ya knew was gonna be on your own! ... What the hell did they think the cops / EMP's were gonna do in the middle of a hurricane with 5-6' of water covering the streets? LOL, darn cops - always there constantly hasslin' ya when don't want 'em... never around when ya need 'em!!! ;)

Anyway back to present, a much more pleasant day locally with atmosphere following the script - Mid-ULL sliding back SWWD overhead to N Cen Gulf area, a few iso / w scat tstms possible but much drier air mass / warmer temps brought in from NE in days ahead... chance of cold front reaching by weekend as large trof digging across, to pick up Earl... Haven't checked / totaled all data yet, but August was above norm in temps and wetness - tallied 10.48" amt rain at my B Cane home...


Hey Barefoot,
Glad those storms brought needed rains, a little show and nothing harmful!

LOL, then my soul should be in great shape!

You betcha, hoping Earl stays farther offshore, but if passes within 60-100 miles still will get a lashing - Nor'easter on steroids... and OBX direct hit still possible... East coast not a good place next few days, but might salvage their Labor Day weekend some...

Yeah, for while last night appeared Fiona might have better chance as she slowed / Earl speeded up moved more NWWD... Looks a bit more ragged this morn but it's still an unknown wildcard if can survive next 24-36 hrs... Was an interesting little development since yesterday as a small anticyclone formed between Earl and Fiona and effects from it prolly not helpful for Lil F...

Earl has had to deal with mid level dry air left behind from the previous trof, but seems has managed to isolate itself / mix it out so far as perhaps it's moving slow enough to do so... But a bit less than perfect conditions one would think... Along with some SW shear, likely why it declined last night...

And now we have TD 9 declared to no one's surprise, with another strong wave behind it off Africa today.. although I did find the NHC TD 9 discussion kinda odd as mentioned - "IT IS WORTH NOTING

Funny, but I sure have seen it on several GFS runs, such as this 0Z 1000 mb Abs Vorticity depiction... and up thru mid levels (albeit displaced to SW of LLC) on same 0Z 600 mb Abs Vort chart too... Although all those GFS runs are not excited with it's future, showing shear and SAL taking a toll... We'll just hafta watch...

EDIT PS: For entertainment / edu purposes: Watched all of the 2nd "Swamp People" show on the History Channel last night... it's actually pretty good, as even for those who don't like seeing gator hunting, they offer some great views of SE LA's swamps, varying from marsh to cypress-filled habitat... and of course I enjoyed seeing all my old stomping grounds (was filmed in '09), esp Lake Verret scenery with Troy Landry... Man, I know so many folks like him... Get a kick hearing his thick Cajun accent hollerin' at rifleman Clint to "schhoot, schhoot, schhoot, dammit"!!! LOL...

Gotta lot to do today, so can't offer much else...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
249. Barefootontherocks
2:45 AM GMT on September 01, 2010
Thanks, Doc.
Oh, I see your report on the SE LA GOM swirl. Wow!

And you know I meant "powerful" in a positive way about post 243. Sometimes cussing can be good for the soul.

This eve's storm turned out perfect. Lot of thunder. A little lightning. Plenty rain. (One of these days maybe Santa will bring me a rain gauge. lol) Still raining a little. The earth sure needed it.

I been thinking of our Carolina blog friends, too. Bet huri's already found a hiding place. You know her motto-If a hurricane's around... hurry and go! I hope Earl stays way off shore.

Watching Fiona and Earl at all tonight? A rare occurrence. Quite a feat for GFS if the merger solution bears out.

2345 GMT
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
248. DocNDswamp
10:58 PM GMT on August 31, 2010
Hey Barefoot,

LOL, I was on slow simmer mode with it... know I sounded a bit, er, "harsh" in a few spots there... LOL, I deleted / re-edited the 1st response I'd written as the excessive cussing didn't sound quite professional... ;)

Not much here yet, they've gone around me, just a few hundredths to add to the monthly collection...

Oh heck yeah, just viewed your radar... looks like a good cluster coming from SW! Just wishing for the needed rain and coolth for ya, please!

Haven't paid as close attention today on our tropical troubles, but darn... sure could be really close call for Carolinas, esp NC OBX... I'm sure Bug and even more so, Huri and CarolinaGal are nervous with it! I'm sure they're pre-prepping all necessary things... At the least, serious Nor'easter effect for 'em...

I think Fiona's gonna get thrashed by Earl much as GFS been insisting, but will know better by tomorrow... and always that odd chance if doesn't, well who knows?

BTW - seems some odd things going on with the blogs, WU admin must be working on the system...

Gotta run,
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
247. Barefootontherocks
10:23 PM GMT on August 31, 2010
Oh, shore,
Albeit inadvertent, you inspired DocNDswamp to write a powerful piece!

Hi Doc.
What's up? Lots of thunderstorms all around late this afternoon. I am patient, waiting my turn. Getting kinda dark out. Whoops. Soon as I thought that, the weather radio went off, so I had to go listen to the robot voice. Severe t-storm... gettin close. Small hail, heavy downpours, frequent lightning.

Was gonna ask your latest tropics thoughts. bbl, in case you want to expound!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
246. DocNDswamp
10:21 PM GMT on August 31, 2010
Was an interesting feature, our coastal low that developed last week and had additional enhanced convective activity on Saturday as a short wave ULL shaped up over E Cen LA / W MS - great LL convergence / upper divergence... But it was a bit of surprise to see the strength of a potent MCV that formed to E of the sfc low by late aftn, just off the SW Terrebonne coast... I can not recall ever seeing a report of 90-120 mph winds over the Gulf, not related to a TC, even if waterspouts were involved!

From KLCH -

852 PM CDT SAT AUG 28 2010





713 PM CDT SAT AUG 28 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

08/28/2010 M45.00 MPH GMZ455 LA PUBLIC


08/28/2010 M90.00 MPH GMZ455 LA PUBLIC


08/28/2010 M120 MPH GMZ475 XX PUBLIC


08/28/2010 E70.00 MPH GMZ455 LA PUBLIC


08/28/2010 M53.00 MPH GMZ475 LA PUBLIC


08/28/2010 M55.00 MPH GMZ455 LA PUBLIC


08/28/2010 M41.00 MPH GMZ475 XX AWOS


Just Amazing!
All that occurred over a 30 mile area, with strongest within a 10 mile portion... Can imagine if had gotten inland! By Sunday some of that convection moved over SE LA, giving additional rains all day, just ugly... Had 1.06" amt Sat, another 1.82" Sunday at my house... added a minor .11" yesterday - Have tallied 10.46" for August, way over avg...

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
245. DocNDswamp
9:56 PM GMT on August 31, 2010
Oh I know, Shore... And I'm sure my response is hardly definitive either... It just rubbed me the wrong way as I've heard plenty such opinions tossed out, esp the "was a MS storm, not LA" and the political attack crap too... I was involved in many such debates, comparisons, etc that went on for months after, including the "should we rebuild NOLA" question that, lucky for Bob, he didn't touch!


Hey, on another note - found something really interesting gonna post in a bit about the coastal low last weekend... LOL, heck might even get around to Cat 4 Earl and about-to-get-shredded TS Fiona, etc...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
244. shoreacres
9:32 PM GMT on August 31, 2010
Oh. Whoops. Wasn't exactly offering it as a definitive word, just one more view of things on the anniversary. I'm running through here now - be back later to give your response another read. ;-)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
243. DocNDswamp
9:07 PM GMT on August 31, 2010
G'day, Tue Aug 31,
Last day of what's been a very wet month here, with more w shwrs / tstms on the increase around SE LA...

Hey (((Finn))),
Good to hear ya check in!
Continuing with best wishes on your situation, and great you and family are there together...
The weather sounds wonderful! But, lol, watch out for the remnants of what was the "newest 95L" might come near your way in couple days - Danielle!
Seriously, wish ya the best gal!


Hiya Shore,
LOL, did ya catch those "Swamp People"?
Darn if I didn't miss the 1st half hr, will catch later, but 2nd half was entertaining... Sunday nights a biggie for HBO too, so there I was back / forth... In between digging data on the computer...

Glad to hear the Texans whomped the C'boys!
And yes, I KNEW that was da "Bayou Fabio" when read the article, which was informative / interesting...

As for that Symon article -
In all honesty, I've pondered how I should respond for about two days now... as I'll tell ya, I wasn't impressed with his comparison at all, agree on some but take issue with many of his points and it certainly opened up old wounds with me! Sheeeesh, feel like I'm constantly forced to relive the past, this in addition to a full week / weekend of being bombarded with media's 5th anniversary rehashing of history...

I'm tempted to say, "no comment"... but will be damned if I'll let some of his statements go unaddressed, so here's a few -

First of all, Katrina's flooding impact / aftermath was NO surprise to most of us here... and Betsy remained fresh in all the memories of us who experienced it! I agree that overall, the winds in NOLA from Betsy were far stronger / more widespread - that's an easy assessment, all things considered... And we know once a large TC attains such Cat 4-5 intensity, it will maintain that ocean surge even if weakens coming ashore... Certainly we all agree how ignorant the MS national media is in accurately portraying such events, and well remember the hasty declarations of NOLA dodging the bullet... However, lol...

He's criticizing the MS media, yet he is as guilty of promoting a slanted opinion as the media he detests! As here, once again, I read more idiotic bloviating how Katrina hit Mississippi, not New Orleans... Sorry to have to inform at this late hour, but Katrina's center passed much closer to NOLA (20-25 miles E) than did Betsy's (35-40 SW)... and not only qualified as a hit, but a direct hit from BOTH storms by standards he should be aware of as a meteorologist... Why certainly the right front quadrant contains the worst winds / surge, but doesn't alone define being "hit"... Like many others, he's trying to minimize the storm's actual severity over NOLA as being next to nothing (all problems manmade), while glorifying the destruction of MS - BTW, 127 mph winds WERE recorded during Katrina in East New Orleans right before the anemometer blew away! - Source: KLIX NWS office...

And while he continues belaboredly stressing the MS coasts "direct hit" but NOLA not, he failed to even note Katrina's equally total annihilation of SE LA's delta 1st (likely, as NHC mentions, while still a 135 mph Cat 4), destroying Plaquemines / St Bernard before reaching NOLA / MS coast... Hell, for that matter, there was a swath of hurricane force wind damage lying across most of SE LA, incl well west / SW of NOLA that I documented to Morgan City, and including notable fish kills in Verret-Palourde and Terrebonne due to winds overturning waterways! So despite such "expert" assumptions / attempts of denial or minimizing, the wind damage was indeed significant on the "weak" side of Katrina over E LA... For several reasons as well, those W side impacts were often widely scattered to more isolated from this very broad TC circulation of extremely low pressure, distributed in a non-linear manner likely attributable to the attempted EWRC process, and narrow bands of entrained dry air streaks blasting to surface... Sheeeshhh...

Politics? Oh... and here we go again, as we have to endure more Blanco-Nagin bashing from yet another outsider... Hmmm, do I smell some Republican-leaning sympathizing here? LOL, yeah, I can envision Gov "Big Mike" Foster leading the charge on his white horse thru the toppled trees / powerlines / debris-strewn flood waters to save everyone... sending smoke signals to the resident victims since all other forms of power / communications was lost over an area covering between Morgan City to Mobile... Yeah, if Blanco had only called Bush sooner... "sob, sob, sob"...and darn that Ray Nagin, certainly after hearing assurances for days on end from the NHC forecasters of a FL panhandle hit - until late Friday night with the miraculous 170 mile WWD shift in track - how could he dare go watch a game that evening? ... blah, f'ing blah, blah... Yeah, you're damn right I'm not letting up on the NHC's complicity in this mess either - folks who generally ignore the wx anyway while planning / enjoying the weekend ahead were left Friday morning thru aftn with the impression of "it's going to FL"... only to wake up to a total shock by Saturday morn if they missed the big correction / track shift put out late Fri night...

Mississippi obliterated by record surge from Camille and Katrina? No surprise to me, and I did generally agree with Symon's explanation of the physics... As I have declared in the past - the Mississippi coast will ALWAYS hold the US record for highest surge from any intense hurricane tracking like Camille's and Katrina's path, due to the cyclonic generation and "walling off / funneling effect" of SE LA's geography and drawing from very deep to shallow ocean topography leading right onto their coast! ALWAYS!!! I dare speculate - if Big-Eye Billion Dollar Betsy had taken the Kat track AND her forward speed was slower (she hit us moving at 18-22 mph!) at around same speed as Katrina (12-15), the surge record might have been more like 40 feet instead of the 28 they got!!!

Why? As large as Katrina was, a big-eye herself that was attempting an EWRC expansion during landfall / passage over SE LA (tried to expand to 50 mile eye, as radar reanalysis indicated outer ring was nearly to Houma, but reconsolidated it's relatively smaller inner eye by time reached MS coast landfall), Betsy had perhaps THE largest eye / eyewall (of any recent US storm) as approached the SE LA coast at a gargantuan 60-80 miles across after several eyewall fluctuations / EWRC's it went thru in it's life (had varied from 25-55 previously in Atlantic), and appears with best post-storm estimates it had tightened to 45 mile diameter as hit us - still huge!...

So Betsy could have produced a really ungodly, monstrous surge over MS... That reason is also why NOLA caught such a sustained right front quadrant brunt from Betsy tracking NW over Houma, well to the SW of NOLA... For a reference, a study showed the Radius to Maximum Winds for Betsy as being the widest on record - 74 miles (with Wilma / FL 2nd at 73), while Katrina's RMW was determined at 47 miles... Camille a potent but paltry 22, Charley similarly small at 19...

And hey guess what? For the most part, outside of extreme E NOLA / St Bernard, the earthen levees did not fail, nor overtopped! MANY of us had commented well before Kat (and Georges) of the engineering idiocy of having open-ended canals draining / facing NWD into the lake and those weak "canal seawalls" failed / undermined after filling with the onrushing surge, not earthen levees... Instead of having those drainage lake outlets closed off, installed with pumps within the earthen levees - otherwise, was a disaster waiting to happen... The Corps? Perhaps... surely they have done plenty of screw ups thru the years (often to help serve business interests, as well in name of protection)... But don't they submit a budget to fund needed projects every year to Congress? And in all their wisdom, doesn't Congress usually approve less than half the f'ing monetary request... consistently? Congress determines what the Corps can do...
Blame needs be shared and directed appropriately!

Hmmmmm... One last stab in response... Ya know... since this kind of op-ed piece usually has underlying undertones revealing inherent prejudices of "us versus them" that degenerates every time between states' residents - Should I ask the author how well did Houston cope with and mitigate Allison's flooding impacts? ... Or the unnecessary deaths that occurred during an unwarranted mass evacuation for Rita? ...And just how late was it when Galveston's mayor FINALLY ordered an evac there for Ike??? And like in NOLA, didn't several residents in the affected area decide to just ride it out despite being in the crosshairs right on the coast?

Okay... Nothing personal intended toward you, Shore... I know you were just sharing what ya thought was an interesting piece, but ya gotta understand - the details and debates over Katrina are about as far-reaching and divisive as AGW!!! And credentials aside, Symon has hardly written the definitive portrayal on Katrina either, IMO! On the other hand, I have read some other articles Bob has written that are indeed both humorous and informative... Sorry to get both long-winded and so riled up, lol...

I'm done... Maybe can get back to current events now...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
242. LakeWorthFinn
5:05 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
{{{{Doc}}}} thanks for posting updates, ya know I follow you wherever ya go ;-)
Nice sunshine here in Finland and 72 F at 8pm on Monday.
Good to be with dad, dau and family, were all surrounding dad with our love.

yeah, that ex-ex-ex 95L etc reminds me of a cat with many lives lol
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
241. shoreacres
2:56 AM GMT on August 29, 2010
Doc ~

The Texans' season is a success - whomped up on Dallas tonight ;-)

You probably saw the article in the Courier about Ricky Verrett, the gar fisherman (Bayou Fabio). But, if not, here's the link - it's really a nice piece.

And finally, a great Betsy/Katrina comparison by a historian/meteorologist I follow: Hurricane Katrina Should Not Have Been A Surprise. Bob's a Houston native, and a pro in the weather field. Here's a bio link - also interesting.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
240. DocNDswamp
7:24 PM GMT on August 28, 2010
G'day Shore!

Well it's a world of difference on either side of our coastal low, wish we could trade conditions! That sounds delightful there and was similar here for about 3 days, esp on Thu when was a bit cloudy and definitely felt Fallish... It's just nasty here today and got worse this aftn - very much the equivalent of a TD, SLY winds sustained from 12-20 with gusts to 30-35 at times (enough to whistle thru the powerlines), overcast with low clouds flying NWD, off/on tropical shwrs / tstms but have avoided very hvy rain so far here, but plenty more to come...

Good thing this low is so close to coast / should lift NWD and shear is still holding it back, even so I may hafta upgrade the disturbance to an "almost Cat 1" TD, lol, as it's well defined - it's a good 1008-1009 mb low, several mb's lower than surrounding locations, esp to the east, so quite a gradient effect... That wind field has grown quite broad, and bearing plentiful convection so getting more impact than 95L or TD5 / XTD 5 here... Interesting - counting the outer effects of Alex, TD 2-ELY wave, and 95L, TD5 and XTD5, this coastal low may be our 6th tropical / semi-tropical event this season... LOL, and I may be forgetting another...

Ahhh, yes those Galveston Bay water conditions sound great, far better than what ours prolly are now (imagine we're getting some tidal rise / influx now)...

Well I hope your Texans have a better than avg season, they've been a good young team!

Enjoy the fine wx ya have... and I swear, I'm not trying to intentionally hog your rain chances!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
239. shoreacres
5:51 PM GMT on August 28, 2010
Hiya, Doc,

Love that Cat 0.5 TD! LOL

I noticed you were hogging all the rain for yourself. At least now we're getting a few clouds - looks like fair weather cumulus is going to be it for a while. They've dropped our chances for a popup shower even further, and it makes sense. I've been out and about all morning without breaking a sweat - humidity must be way low.

The downside of extended dry weather and light winds is ozone. The upside is that the bay is gorgeous today - clear, blue to blue-green water. It's settled out like a dream. Lots of folks who come down think the water's dirty because of pollution, and we've got our share of that - but I don't have to tell you about silt ;-) It's almost worth a drive down to Galveston to see how far into shore the blue water's come. If it were cooler, I'd be gone!

Tonight's our night to see if the Texans have recovered from the licking they took from the Saints last week. I suspect not ;-) What I actually expect is a 500 season - if we're lucky.....
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
238. DocNDswamp
4:40 PM GMT on August 28, 2010
Sat Aug 28 update...

And it was an enjoyable action-filled game as Saints win 36-21 piling up over 550 yds over the Chargers... Loved that swing out pass to Chris Ivory, often used w Reggie Bush, and result was same - a tough hard-nosed run with a TD! He's a keeper.... ;)


Ugly wet weekend for N Cen Gulf coast... Locally numerous bands of shwrs / tstms continuously rumbling across the area with E / SE winds gusty at times...
NWS issued Flood Watch in effect thru Sunday for S Cen / SE LA / S MS as shwrs / tstms on east side of our low lift over the area... as radar shows coverage from S Cen LA to Mobile-Pensacola...

LOL, well the NHC restored the yellow circle over S LA, a meek 10% chance for TC development, but unlikely to happen with conditions aloft... Although the effects are same as a weak TD (It's a Cat 0.5 TD, lol!)... The coastal low that formed yesterday migrated a bit west, but hasn't gone much further as it's sitting just offshore below Marsh Island and SW Terrebonne's Point Au Fer Island (early morn pressure falls down to 29.78" / 1008.5 mb at FRWL / Marsh Is, lower than in BOC)... May slowly edge closer toward SW LA, but it's generally stuck in place and less likely will ever reach TX... Trof extends down toward BOC - where upper high / low shear is more centered - but all the energy / best focusing is above over N Cen Gulf coast where low-mid level vorticity / semi-stationary mid level short wave weakness is concentrated... Convective development being aided by what is essentially a subtropical jet streak around the N side of upper high to south / CONUS split flow within upper ridge above over Cen US... but also creating too high shear level for any tropical cyclone development...

By the time the subtropical streak weakens / shear lessens, our disturbance is expected to just slowly lift inland NWD over LA next 24-36 hrs and unfortunately those that need rain in TX will see little compared to us on N Cen / NE Gulf... But, as said before - if this is what we trade in exchange of a hurricane, well you know...

Danielle still in lengthy EWRC that began yesterday, ending it's intensification and was looking pretty healthy up to that point... Back to a Cat 2 now, should evolve a large eye and wind field is steadily expanding outward...

Earl is a large slow-growing TC but continues getting ripped / convection displaced with strong ELY flow which keeps bringing it farther west, increasing the threat to Leewards and SE US for late week, particularly the OBX... But is expected to slow and get better organized over next day as approaches islands... By mid week could become our 2nd major hurricane after passing above (or clipping) N of Leewards / PR, progressing NWLY in direction of SE US... LOL, if only looked at sfc-850-500 mb ridge pattern it would appear there's nothing to stop Earl from continuing WWD toward FL and the Gulf... However, a developing Mid / esp ULL trof is expected (via GFS guidance) to carve out over the SE US to N Gulf region to act as a block, force a weakness to the east to lift it NWD where it may slow / semi-stall a bit awaiting passing trof in westerlies to pick it up, lift Earl out - hopefully Earl will track right between Carolinas-Bermuda for all concerned... We'll just have to watch how all this transpires carefully, esp for NC residents who should be very wary of Earl at this point... At the least thru this week, strong sea swells generated by both Danielle currently and Earl later will cause concern for large waves / strong rip currents / beach erosion all along the US east coast...

GFS keeps showing chance for Fiona candidate catching up closer to Earl and getting absorbed by the large storm, which is entirely plausible if it remains a weak system... just like Big-Eye Wilma ate up TS Alpha in '05... Just have to see how plays out next few days for better confidence...

PS Edit: Alright! ... I've reached comment #3800 with this one, LOL!!!
Man I'm on a roll!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
237. DocNDswamp
2:18 AM GMT on August 28, 2010
Wow, Danielle is beautifully organized... and love watching her where she's at, lol!

Gams, no reason to be embarrassed at comment numbers - you're a welcome, frequent visitor to many of us!
And yes indeed, the Atlantic will hold our attention thru next week and beyond!

Hey Barefoot,
Well I was questioning that earlier this morn, whether was mostly mid level, but some of that vorticity did work it's way down to spark a sfc reflection, judging from sfc obs / sat imagery and pressure falls... Actually it's the 3rd sfc spin seen out this really elongated frontal trof mess last few days - was one off S TX coast, another in BOC and this latest might just as well wane... Especially given the strong W / SWLY winds aloft in place over N Gulf coast it has little chance to develop in near term... Something in the BOC with more favorable conditions would seem a better location for any tropical development... Despite some similarities, this is not a repeat of early July's 95L... not yet, lol...

LOL, but it sure caught my attention today... ;)
Been a very tropical feel this aftn locally, with rapid deep moisture return, numerous shwrs passing over...

Okay, back to Saints / Chargers game... ;)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
236. Barefootontherocks
12:00 AM GMT on August 28, 2010
Hi DocNDswamp,
They took away your yellow circle!?

Yes. Looks like something spinning, maybe midlevel?

GOM Vis loop noaa, flash.

Thanks for the tips on Safari. I had no idea an apple-command-click would zoom it out. lol I will try it in Firefox also. Hunt. Peck. I have been using shift-ctrl-click as a left click.

Back to warm here today after three glorious days with windows open and no AC. A touch of Fall in the air the past few mornings-even today. And cooler eves. 88 at 7 pm as opposed to 98.

Keep your eye on the spin. Or maybe those in TX should as seems it's moving west.

Next up... Earl.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
235. DocNDswamp
8:41 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
307 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2010



Uh yep, exactly...
Was nice to be a lil ahead of the curve... ;)

Even if it has now run me 3 hrs late for everything else while talking to myself here... lol...

Later, sometime...

Edit: Hiya Gams!
Glad ya stopped by...
LOL, I've flat run outta time...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
234. seflagamma
8:38 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
I did not even notice they have "member since" dates on our post now!

Shore, you were here when there were only Photographers here.

The first weather blog Dr master's did was in April 2005..I discovered the weather blogs in probably July but did not get a handle and post until Katrina (I was so afraid of the "internet" back then!)
But I had been coming here to look at radars and get weather info for years. I had no idea about the photographers that were here back then.

but Wanda said the photographers had a sort of "membership club" they could talk to each other and such.

I got to get to your blog tomorrow; did not today because I had no "real" time and I know you have a new story to read so I want some time to enjoy it!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
233. seflagamma
8:33 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Hi Doc,

Well, I am almost embarrassed at how many comments I have made in the past 5 years...
does that mean I talk all the time?

No I am just a very fast typist so i can post a lot without thinking about it! LOL

Got a lot to watch in the Atlantic this week and going to be very interesting!

Enjoy your weekend!
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