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By: DocNDswamp, 7:52 PM GMT on November 28, 2006
Latest W Atlantic Basin AVN / IR Satellite Image
Fri Dec 1 2006 10 PM CST:
SE LA / N Gulf wx Update: Chance of lite freeze and / or frost expected most areas tonite... colder again on Mon / Tue
Wow... what a winter storm to end November, start off December! This early season blast has had everything from - rapidly plummeting temps following heels of record / near-record highs... a wide swath of record-setting snowfall from TX to the Great Lakes... crippling ice storm across MO, IL with massive power outages... gale force winds with brutal wind chills... damaging straight line winds and a few tornadoes (with injuries) from AL to PA, NY - the largest severe outbreak in the NE ever in Dec... and that's just in the last 48 hrs! ...As it had previously blasted the West Coast, N Plains and Rockies with arctic chill, high winds, hvy rains and snowfall... Storm system is now winding it's way thru the NE US with it's finale... Guess it's safe to say Hawaii missed out, the only state not affected!
An observation - A lot of components came together with this system - too much to detail here, but one element had genesis here on Thu aftn... when pre-frontal cluster of shwrs formed just to my WSW, moved across at 3 PM bringing gusts of 26 to 37 mph and brief shwrs... Other than blowing the leaves off, a minor event here... but that same line grew and consolidated into strong T-storms showing bow echoes as it raced thru MS / AL Thu eve / nite, producing damaging straight line winds and the tornado that caused destruction in Demopolis / Huntsville area and further N... One could write a book on this amazing winter storm's evolution! LOL, I'll let it slide...
Locally, Dec 1 started off with wind chill in mid-20's and temps fell to 31░, for 1st sub-freezing temps here... and despite gorgeous clear skies and sunshine, high temp peaked at 49░ - 50░ in Bayou Cane / Houma... Strong 20-30 mph NNW winds subsided to more pleasant NNE @ 5-12 by midday / aftn... Cold and mostly sunny, dry wx will continue into mid next week, as another upper trof will dive down bringing reinforcing cold air by Sun into Tue as high pressure builds in from the NW, bringing cold air further EWD... secondary front should also reach deeper into FL peninsula, cooling to more seasonable levels... For SE LA and most of N Gulf, will be continuation of cold temps with lows ranging up 20's / up 30's with highs generally in 50's... might have increasing upper clouds on Sat / early Sun as next front comes thru, but no rain expected... although NLY winds will increase again on Sun... Could see slight warming (60's) Wed - Fri and incr rain chances by then, as a low may form in N Gulf, ahead of and in conjunction with next cold front... But LOL, all subject to change!
Bottom line - it feels like December! LOL... 10 PM and frost forming already... ;-)
SE LA / N Gulf wx: Stormy changes ahead...
Tue Nov 28 2006 1:30 PM CST:
SE LA / N Gulf coast wx update: Warming up, chill down to start December...
Rounding out November... Long stretch of dry, cool / cold, sunny and stable wx finally coming to an end as sprawling dominant high pressure regime cont sliding off E Coast... allowing the prevalent ELY flow to shift more SLY bringing back moist Gulf air and steady warming thru Wed, with increasing rain chances by late Wed / Thu... Meanwhile, we're watching as the coldest arctic air intrusion of the season is diving SWD into the NW, Rockies, Cen / S Plains, / Cen CONUS as week progresses... Sharp jet stream troughing centered over West / S Plains will likely lift toward the Midwest and become more broad in scope by Fri... will not continue to plunge toward the SE US in this initial round, as pattern is somewhat blocked both at the surface and aloft... with huge sfc high over the W Atlantic and broad upper ridging centered over W Caribbean... Cold front will move EWD across CONUS, but for N Gulf region cold air advection will be limited... with TX / LA certain to feel colder temps than will FL...
So here we go on another roller coaster ride! ...Low and high temps will run 10░ above norm Tue thru Thu morning with muggy Gulf airflow... If winds subside overnite hrs, areas of dense fog could form tonite, and again on Thu morn (esp EWD)... yet SELY winds are expected to increase to 10 - 20 mph by Wed... With thickening low-mid level clouds a few iso to w scat shwrs today and Wed with best chances on Thu as cold front will begin moving across TX / LA with a few strong (to iso severe) T-storms within the squall line - N Cen Gulf region extending NWD toward W TN / KY in SPC's slight risk category... although greatest energy from series of lows forming along frontal boundary will be focused toward the NE from N TX - AR - MO to TN / OH... and with rapidly falling temps, a changeover to mix of sleet / snow likely late Thu in N TX / extreme NW LA / AR toward Midwest / E Great Lakes... Cold front will pass thru SE LA late Thu eve / overnite and temps will quickly fall and stay in the 50's on Fri... Very strong NLY winds of 20 - 30 mph behind the front will warrant SCA's and Lake wind advisories, with wind chill index likely to make it feel in the up 30's / 40's... Lite rain / drzl and wrap around clouds should clear out by Fri midday... leaving sunny skies, low humidity for weekend... Temps will be close to normal / slightly below for SE LA with lows ranging low 30's N to low 40's coast... with highs in upper 50's / low 60's for Sat thru early next week... as dry reinforcing shot of cold wx likely to come thru by Sunday, perhaps dropping the temps a tad... Generally WSW upper flow across N Gulf region should allow front to progress across N Gulf region / N FL although core of arctic cold will remain from Rockies toward Great Lakes, EWD... Also note, will be substantially colder in NW portions of the Mid-South than coastal region.
Note: Have had great difficulty last 2 days accessing all NOAA sites, obviously their servers suffering from overload... LOL, have had to piecemeal together this forecast...
Updated: 4:19 AM GMT on December 02, 2006
By: DocNDswamp, 8:23 PM GMT on November 12, 2006
Latest W Atlantic Basin AVN / IR Satellite Image
Bayou Cane / Houma, LA Update:
Thanksgiving Nov 23 2006 8 AM CST: Happy Thanksgiving to all in WUBA-land!
Absolutely, perfect seasonally cold Thanksgiving morning in da SE LA swamp again today - Low hit 35.8░ here and Wooo Hooo... 6th Frost of season, moderately thick and melting quick... (4th day in a row, 6 out of last 8 days)... unless a very lite one occurs tonite, will be last of November... Will have to check how this compares to previous years... Steady warming into mid next week could lead to another clashing of air masses with next cold front passing likely by Wed / Thu... Lot of very cold arctic air that's been bottled up in E Alaska / W Canada poised to come into the CONUS, but model runs diverging on extent of cold air advection SWD... This all needs to be fine-tuned for accuracy... We'll be watching with great interest! And I'll most definitely need to place a new entry up soon... LOL.
SE LA / N Gulf Update: Cool, Pleasant thru Thanksgiving week
Monday Nov 20 2006 2 PM CST: Local wx data / forecast:
And just a glorious winter day in da swamp! Got down to 35.3░ here in Bayou Cane / Houma with our 3rd Frost...While still lite with minimal humidity, this one reached the ground... as previous 2 were only on rooftops with dew below to surface... And temps this aftn struggling to rise, only 54░ now under brilliant sunny skies, should top out in upper 50's...(currently 30% humidity / 24░ dewpt.) then fall quickly after dark, with excellent radiational cooling... NW/N winds blowing at 10 - 18 mph and gusty will diminish somewhat overnite, but will be mid-week before calming - thanks to pressure gradient from low developing off Carolinas and high to our west... LOL, no snow here... but parts of N AL / N GA / E TN and W Carolinas will receive some, with accumulations in higher elevations likely...
Light freeze warnings in place for our area tonight in most but extreme coastal regions... Interior regions (Cen LA / MS) should see temps in up 20's / low 30's, while Houma area could likely drop to near freezing with low around 31░ - 34░ by morning... Highs near 60░ Tuesday... mid 30's Wed morn with temps slowly moderating rest of week with lows in up 30's / low 40's, highs in up 60's / near 70░ thru Friday... Just awesome, and should see a few more frosts this week!
...Beautiful Thanksgiving wx here!
Happy Thanksgiving all!
SE LA / N Gulf Update:
Thu Nov 16 2006 11:15 AM CST:
Oh My God... That about sums up everyone's reaction today viewing the reports / video of damage across the South as powerful storm system plowed thru... and continues today into Mid-Atlantic states as cold front progresses EWD (with reports of 6 - 9 fatalities in Riegelwood, NC)... Storm damage reports are extensive, esp in MS and AL where some tornadoes likely reached at least F3 intensity - NWS Survey teams investigating today... Just amazing there haven't been more injuries and fatalities (1 tornado fatality in LA)... For comprehensive info check out the NWS IWIN Page, click on the individual states' Public Information Statement for details... (more storm data/info in comments section)...
Forecast for SE LA and N Gulf region into mid-next week looks nice with seasonally cool-mild days / cold-cool nights... strong W/NW winds will be slowly subsiding (Gale warnings dropped earlier) as high pressure builds across, sunny skies are returning as wrap around clouds depart...very dry with low humidity and cooler than avg temps will rule, with near 60░ today and lows dipping to mid-upper 30's (low 30's interior areas) to low 40's on the coast tonite and again on Sat... with frost likely many areas... moderating only slightly as highs will stay in 60's to low 70's with lows of up 30's / 40's... Reinforcing shot of cool air into early next week as another cold front will pass thru by Sunday and with generally drier NWLY upper flow from E CONUS troughing, no rain or storms are expected next 7 days... Temps will be slowly warming as we approach Thanksgiving Day as jet stream troughing lifts / flattens out... Additionally, will keep an eye on frontal trof sagging into NW Caribbean for any possible... well, you know the drill... and our usual suspect area above Panama for any late season surprises.
SE LA / N Gulf wx - Severe T-storms underway, Tornado watches issued
SE LA / N Gulf wx Update: Severe wx underway... and more coming overnite / into Wed...
Tue Nov 14 2006 1 PM CST:
Warm-up underway as powerful developing system approaching from west is pulling warm front and unstable moist Gulf air NWD... shwrs and T-storms are breaking out across SW / S Cen LA EWD into S MS... and 1st Severe T-storm / Tornado warning issued by Lake Charles NWS minutes ago for parts of SW LA / Cen LA, likely with many to follow thru overnite / Wed as appears severe wx possible from S AR / LA into MS / AL tomorrow... All ingredients for severe wx from strong T-storms coming together to produce damaging straightline winds, hvy rainfall, hail and tornadoes... as polar jet stream carves out trof and intensifies surface low... Only change to previous update... will mention cold snap may have a reinforcing shot coming - likely dry passage - this weekend, maintaining seasonally cool temps into early next week... More on this later... SCA's and lake wind advisories likely to go up soon into tomorrow... Tornado watch issued for most of SE LA this aftn, likely to be extended... Please heed advisories from NWS folks!!! ...Here's the latest from NOLA NWS -
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1234 PM CST TUE NOV 14 2006
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 849 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IN LOUISIANA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 16 PARISHES
IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA:
ASCENSION, ASSUMPTION, EAST BATON ROUGE, EAST FELICIANA, IBERVILLE, LAFOURCHE, LIVINGSTON, POINTE COUPEE, ST. CHARLES, ST. HELENA, ST. JAMES, ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST,
TANGIPAHOA, TERREBONNE, WEST BATON ROUGE, WEST FELICIANA
IN MISSISSIPPI THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES
IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI:
AMITE, PIKE, WILKINSON...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ADDIS...BATON ROUGE...BAYOU CANE... BRUSLY...CENTREVILLE...CLINTON...CROSBY...CUT OFF... DENHAM SPRINGS...DESTREHAN...DONALDSONVILLE...GALLIANO...
JACKSON...LABADIEVILLE...LAPLACE...LAROSE... LIBERTY...LIVONIA...LUTCHER...MCCOMB...MONTPELIER...NEW ROADS...NORCO... PAINCOURTVILLE...PIERRE PART...PLAQUEMINE...PONCHATOULA... PORT ALLEN...RACELAND...RESERVE...ST. FRANCISVILLE... THIBODAUX...WALKER...WHITE CASTLE AND WOODVILLE.
THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS:
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS
N Gulf wx Update: Roller Coaster ride in temps to continue thru November...
Sun Nov 12 2006 2 PM CST:
Quite a cool down last 24 hrs here as temps dropped below guidance... and despite cloud cover, local (Houma) low temps Sun morn fell to 39░ - 41░... coldest of season yet and probably woulda been in mid 30's with clear skies and radiational cooling... and only slowly warming today into 60's with mix of sun / thick upper level cirrus streaking across the Gulf. Would expect temps overnite (Mon morn) in the 40's again, with 30's and frost likely in interior MS / AL, EWD... with highs warming to up 60's / mid-up 70's by Tuesday as moisture / rain chances increase ahead of a very strong storm system... The polar jet stream will carve out a deep trough Wed / Thu over the Cen US as deep-layered low pressure system winds up over the Great Lakes, with a potent cold front driving across the South... Heads up folks! - With such strong jet max energy, cold air clashing with returning warmer, moist Gulf airmass... There will likely be a strong squall line develop ahead of and along the cold front bringing threat of severe T-storms bearing hvy rains, damaging winds and possible tornadoes to the N Cen Gulf region by early Wed and further EWD into Thu as it progresses... as dynamics may well be in place to support it in that 24-36 hr time frame... As for the wintry probability / freezing temps? ...ATT it appears best chances for snow and mixed frozen precip will remain across Great Lakes region to Upper TN / Ohio Valley... While could be somewhat colder briefly, Temps for N Gulf region behind the front should be slightly below to near seasonal avgs with highs in 60's / lows in up 30's to up 40's, and will feel even colder with expected strong N / NWLY winds rushing in... Beyond that, a stretch of stable wx expected as high pressure settles in thru next weekend as temps moderate... And better than equal chance for avg to warmer than normal temps Thanksgiving week, as it looks now with the upper flow flattening out, becoming zonal... LOL, almost a hint of a Bermuda High type set up! ...Oh yeah, I just love it... NOT!!!
Tropical Update: Still keeping a watch on the W Caribbean...
The long range GFS has been adamant for several days to a weeks worth of runs that we'll have a tropical disturbance / depression / TS form in the W / SW Caribbean toward the end of this coming week and slowly migrate NWD during Thanksgiving week... If it occurs (and being so far out in time), the track of this system is problematic as steering patterns may be weak, that could allow potential cyclone to either drift towards Hispaniola or migrate further N into the S Gulf before getting caught in the westerlies, sending it EWD toward Florida... Who knows, we may see TD / TC 10 yet! Yep, that would be about right - a Tropical Storm for Thanksgiving... As for now, just expect a big rainmaker if anything develops, esp if a slow mover... And this remains - long range speculation!
Updated: 2:19 PM GMT on November 23, 2006
Heavy Thunderstorm Rain