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SPECIAL UPDATE Hurricane Ernesto - 8/7/12

By: CybrTeddy , 6:16 PM GMT on August 07, 2012

Good afternoon and welcome to my special tropical weather outlook for Tuesday, August 7th, 2012. I haven't posted on Ernesto much simply because there has not been much change with the storm until now. Ernesto failed to be influenced by the weakness to it's north and is now poised to make landfall in the Yucatan as a Hurricane. Hurricane Hunters discovered in the most recent recon that Ernesto has become a 80mph Category 1 hurricane, the second of the season as it churns westward towards landfall tonight or tomorrow morning.

figure 1. Latest satellite image of Hurricane Ernesto

Forecast for Hurricane Ernesto

Ernesto won't probably strengthen much beyond Category 1 strength as it's running out of time for rapid development, but I could see it becoming a 90mph hurricane just as it crosses the coast. Gradual organization is expected as the system exits the Yucatan and could regain Hurricane status. The Bay of Campeche is famous for causing storms to quickly intensify, this is due to the geographical shape of the coastline that acts to accelerate the winds in a cyclone, causing them to intensify. Recent examples are Hurricane Lorenzo in 2007, and Hurricanes Alex and Karl in 2010. All of these systems managed to intensify into potent storms before landfall. It all depends on how much time Ernesto gets over the Bay of Campeche for strengthening to really get going. In the end, I could see Ernesto at least regaining the strength it has now and perhaps even stronger.

Figure 2. Latest forecast track for Ernesto.

Florence no threat to re-develop into a cyclone
Wanted to make a passing mention that in my break of posting we did get Tropical Storm Florence, the 6th named storm of the season. Florence managed to intensify into a 60mph Tropical Storm becoming the first Cape Verde system of the season before dying due to the dry Saharan Air. Dry air and shear should keep Florence in check and regeneration is unlikely.

Invest 92L no threat to develop
Another disturbance, Invest 92L has also developed just south and west of the Cape Verde islands. The computer models do not develop 92L, but the intensity models are rather over-enthusiastic about the systems chances. Dry air will probably keep this system in check before development can occur, at most becoming a brief Tropical Depression before dissipating in about 3 days.

Figure 3. Invest 92L out in the Eastern Atlantic.

Watching for another wave to emerge later this week
Our next area of interest to watch for future development will be once again off the African coast as the GFS has been very consistent the last few days with developing a classic Cape Verde hurricane later this week. The other models, with the exception of the NOGAPS, are unenthusiastic about this but I do believe there is a good chance development may happen. Unfortuantly, this wave seems unlikely to recurve straight away and *could* pose a threat downstream. I will not guarantee this as it's all about timing, but the GFS has been showing in the long range this getting close to the United States. We'll see what happens. Focus though on the initial development before actually seeing this come towards the United States or any body.

Figure 4. Latest GFS model run 84 hours out showing a possible Tropical Storm over the Cape Verde islands.

CybrTed


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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36. wxchaser97
1:55 AM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Not now that I'm here!

Anyway, seems to me like the NHC is still being conservative with 92L... If I was at the NHC I would call this a TD at 11PM.

But you aren't:) I would wait 12-18 hours before making the call. I would want to make sure it doesn't go away in a little bit. I see what you mean but I want a little more organization/consistency.
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35. ryang
1:55 AM GMT on August 09, 2012
Anyone think the ridge will push 92L to the WSW over the coming days?



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34. WxGeekVA
1:51 AM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Slow though :P


Not now that I'm here!

Anyway, seems to me like the NHC is still being conservative with 92L... If I was at the NHC I would call this a TD at 11PM.
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33. CybrTeddy
1:44 AM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA:
To avoid the trolls... I see the conversation here is good though :)


Slow though :P
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32. WxGeekVA
1:42 AM GMT on August 09, 2012
To avoid the trolls... I see the conversation here is good though :)
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31. Tazmanian
1:41 AM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy:
92L is farther north than Ernesto was at this point so don't be too sold on the 'another' Mexico storm. It's not even guaranteed it will develop.



i guss will have too wait and see
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30. CybrTeddy
1:39 AM GMT on August 09, 2012
92L is farther north than Ernesto was at this point so don't be too sold on the 'another' Mexico storm. It's not even guaranteed it will develop.
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29. Tazmanian
1:36 AM GMT on August 09, 2012
dran you 92L other mx storm
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28. Tazmanian
1:35 AM GMT on August 09, 2012
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27. wxchaser97
1:35 AM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Slowly, but it's going to be hugging the coast really close.

If it wasn't for the turn to the W and then WSW Ernesto would be over water longer and have a better shot at a good re-strengthening.
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26. Tazmanian
1:34 AM GMT on August 09, 2012
drop a 500LBS cow on the 18z gfs
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25. CybrTeddy
1:32 AM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:

Eventually it could be Gordon but that's later down the road. I just noticed that and I'm pretty sure it will be back tonight. What are your thoughts on the wave over Africa?


I think the GFS is a real tease, but that it will probably try to develop when it reaches the water.
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24. wxchaser97
1:32 AM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy:
92L is currently in an area of severely dry air.

Also, I see the 18z GFS had a fluke and dropped the hurricane it was so consistently developing. Don't count on that happening.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
92L is currently in an area of severely dry air.

Also, I see the 18z GFS had a fluke and dropped the hurricane it was so consistently developing. Don't count on that happening.

Eventually it could be Gordon but that's later down the road. I just noticed that and I'm pretty sure it will be back tonight. What are your thoughts on the wave over Africa?
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23. CybrTeddy
1:32 AM GMT on August 09, 2012
Heh, well there you go. Ignore the 18z GFS unless it stops showing it for the next few runs which would be just typical of the GFS.
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22. Tazmanian
1:30 AM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy:
92L is currently in an area of severely dry air.

Also, I see the 18z GFS had a fluke and dropped the hurricane it was so consistently developing. Don't count on that happening.



drop a cow on the 18z gfs
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21. CybrTeddy
1:30 AM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:

T-storms look to be trying to surround the center again.


Slowly, but it's going to be hugging the coast really close.
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20. wxchaser97
1:29 AM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Latest Radar image of Ernesto, once could say it's getting the 'grove' back on so to speak.

T-storms look to be trying to surround the center again.
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19. CybrTeddy
1:29 AM GMT on August 09, 2012
92L is currently in an area of severely dry air.

Also, I see the 18z GFS had a fluke and dropped the hurricane it was so consistently developing. Don't count on that happening.
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18. wxchaser97
1:28 AM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy:
It's the whole Jason thing, and the constant discussion about him as well, ect. Let's not talk about trolls though tonight if you're going to be on here.

Alright, I think 92L is looking pretty good and I also think it will become Gordon eventually.
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17. CybrTeddy
1:27 AM GMT on August 09, 2012
Latest Radar image of Ernesto, once could say it's getting the 'grove' back on so to speak.
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16. wxchaser97
1:27 AM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting Tazmanian:



jason for one of them

I was here for the videos and I "-", "!", and ignored.
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15. Tazmanian
1:27 AM GMT on August 09, 2012
i think 93E have made its peak but thanks too are E storm outflow i think it kill 93E
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14. CybrTeddy
1:26 AM GMT on August 09, 2012
It's the whole Jason thing, and the constant discussion about him as well, ect. Let's not talk about trolls though tonight if you're going to be on here.
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13. Tazmanian
1:26 AM GMT on August 09, 2012
.
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12. Tazmanian
1:25 AM GMT on August 09, 2012
92L

08/2345 UTC 14.3N 38.1W T1.0/1.0 92L -- Atlantic
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11. wxchaser97
1:25 AM GMT on August 09, 2012
Whats the troll problem, I've been gone for a while?
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10. Tazmanian
1:25 AM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Hello Taz.


hi CybrTeddy
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9. Tazmanian
1:24 AM GMT on August 09, 2012
92L looks good
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8. CybrTeddy
1:24 AM GMT on August 09, 2012
Hello Taz.
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7. Tazmanian
1:24 AM GMT on August 09, 2012
hi
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6. CybrTeddy
10:03 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Thanks for dropping by!
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5. nigel20
9:04 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Thanks CybrTeddy!
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4. wxchaser97
6:31 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Great job and thanks Ted!
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3. Thrawst
6:28 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Thanks Ted!
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2. CybrTeddy
6:20 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Fixed
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1. WeatherNerdPR
6:19 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
"the first of the season"
lol. Chris was the first of the season. Ernesto is the strongest.
Good blog. :)
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