3/5/11 Spring nears, what might be in store for Hurricane season?

By: CybrTeddy , 5:24 PM GMT on March 05, 2011

Good afternoon everyone and welcome to my update for SATURDAY March 5th, 2011. I haven't done a tropical update in a bit so I thought I'd give you all a bone, those who read my forecasts anyways. Even though in the Northern US it might not seem it, for the most part the 2010-2011 Winter is over, particularly in the South-Eastern United States. Which means we're starting to get a better view of the shape the ENSO is going to take. Earlier predictions back in December when CSU made its first prediction of 17, it appeared then the La Nina was going to hold well into the summer and we'd have another La Nina hurricane season. I'm starting to think its much more likely that 2011 will be a neutral year on the ENSO (-0.5 to 0.5), but then might begin to re-strengthen back into a La Nina as the season progresses. The CFS is showing this.

As it stands right now, the La Nina is defiantly collapsing and will continue to do so straight on through the spring. But is this a blessing for the 2011 Hurricane Season? I can tell you it is not. Let me explain. First of all, think back to the year 2008. That was a neutral year, and so was the infamous year of 2005. Both years featured significant amount of US landfalls. 2008 and 1961 so far resemble the way 2011 is shaping up so far. What I find interesting however is the way the SST's are shaping up in the Atlantic, they are defiantly cooler than what they were this time last year. However what is equally as interesting is that the GOMEX is much warmer than this time last year.

What will also be interesting to see with these SST's the way they are is how the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) will react. Last year as you may recall in some of my updates I made mention of the MJO behavior. It seemed stuck in the Atlantic the entire year but we didn't get intense amount of activity until late August, were we had virtually non-stop named storms until late-October and finished off with 19 named storms.. something that I didn't even think would get that high. What I think is going to happen is that 2011 however unlike 2010, will be more active earlier into the year but September won't be as active as 2010 was. This is again similar to what 2008 experienced.

I will not speculate on US landfalls, last year I thought it was likely that the US would get at least 1 major hurricane. I was wrong to the fullest extent, but everyone else got nailed by strong storms particularly the Mexican Gulf Coast and Central America. But however, neutral years usually based on history alone see bad hurricanes hitting the United States. Does that mean 2011 will follow suite? No, does not mean so at all. Personally, I do not think 2011 will be as active as 2010 was. Here are my March predictions. I'll have another one on May 15th.

Number of named storms: 16-17
Number of hurricanes: 9
Number of major hurricanes: 5

Get ready, be prepared. The game begins in 86 days from this blog post.


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3. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:33 PM GMT on March 14, 2011
During the last few hours, as expected, this low pressure system began to intensify and organize over the Atlantic between the coast of Espírito Santo and Rio de Janeiro. Based on different numerical simulations, the trend is that this system grow even more in the open sea between today and tomorrow, further inland, and gain characteristics at least a tropical storm (tropical cyclone with wind of 65 to 120 km/h). At dawn came to be recorded wind gusts of up to 80 km/h at Inmet Abrolhos, in the coast of Bahia, but associated with temporal caused by convection that had in the area because of low system off the coast of Espírito Santo.

The possibility of this system becoming a hurricane in the South Atlantic can not be removed. The trend of slow displacement and over waters with high surface temperature (27-29° C) allows this system to receive enough power to greater intensification, which can take you to a hurricane. Not all models suggest the possibility of a system of this nature. The European model, for example, indicates a low without greater relevance in the South Atlantic.

The more aggressive model follows the American GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory), designed for forecasting of tropical cyclones, and one of the principal to be operated by weather United States when predicting hurricanes. This simulation, in particular, indicates that there might be the formation of a hurricane here in the South Atlantic. See the projection of this model to the system during the week.

Tropical cyclone forecasts are extremely complex even in countries with Meteorology structured for this type of prediction. This is because this kind of phenomenon is often surprising. A tropical cyclone can become a tropical storm to a category 3 hurricane in a matter of a few hours. This has occurred many times and, in some cases, even recent, just surprising and frustrating prognoses of Central American Tropical cyclones is the most advanced in the world. Predict the intensity of a phenomenon of this nature, so it is not easy. In the case of the South Atlantic, is even more difficult. When a tropical cyclone form in the North Atlantic there is a package of "guidance" (templates) very wide (example below) providing projections of intensity for a given system, which does not occur here in the South Atlantic.

One of the most disparate outputs of the weekend, the GFDL model has arrived to suggest (see below) a hurricane within the limits of categories 2 and 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale in the Atlantic South this week with a pressure of 960 hPa and wind around 200 km/hThis solution, which does not have support for multiple masters. One of our curiosities in MetSul is the advancement of air cooler by the coast of southern Brazil, preceded by a frontal system, with greater divergence of wind, can't commit a larger organization and intensification of the stormOnce in the open sea.

In the last few hours commented on media channels that this possible system on the Brazilian coast received the name Arani, designation of the Tupi-Guarani language, and that already exist in Brazil a list of names ready to identify tropical cyclones, tropical storms and hurricanes
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 62 Comments: 54078
2. HurricaneKyle
11:27 PM GMT on March 06, 2011
Quoting cg2916:
Maybe a bit high IMO

I don't think he's far off actually. SST's across the entire basin's compare with years such as 2008. They're well above 2009. We're in for an active year though.

Great update Ted.
Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 672
1. cg2916
3:24 PM GMT on March 06, 2011
Maybe a bit high IMO
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3047

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