95L a threat to develop over the weekend 8/20/10

By: CybrTeddy , 3:06 PM GMT on August 20, 2010

Good morning everyone! The tropics have once again waken up with invest 95L just south of the Cape Verde islands at 110N, 260W for those tracking along. It is currently moving in a due west course at about 8 knots. Satellite revels a system trying to develop with good outflow, moderate shear, and SAL to the north that doesn't appear to be a serious problem at this time for development. I see no reason why 95L shouldn't become TD6 over the upcoming days and eventually Danielle. SHIPS currently takes 95L up to Category 2 status and the IVCN takes it to Category 3 borderline Category 4 status over the next couple of days. Based on the shear forecast with a anti-cyclone predicted to develop over 95L I see no reason why 95L can't become a powerful tropical cyclone. Every single model develops this system, most of them take it to major hurricane status so it bares watching but is not a threat to land at this time.


(Satellite image of 95L, a very large invest)



The track right now is of course hard to predict, but I do think that 95L could take a very similar path to Hurricane Bill of last year, perhaps even a little lower in latitude even. Most of the models take this out to sea, thanks to a trough in place off the East coast of the United States that should steer it out to no mans land and become extra-tropical. However, there is also the possibility that the Caribbean 'could' be grazed by this system, especially if it moves more south than predicted which might happen if 95L stays weaker then begins to ramp up as it approaches the islands while going north.



I will continue to monitor 95L as the days go on.

CybrTed

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1. CybrTeddy
7:29 PM GMT on August 20, 2010
ECMWF 12z doesn't develop this until its in the Bahamas. I suspect however, that the models will start shifting more west over the next coming days.
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