Amanda intensifying; not a major threat to land

By: Civicane49 , 9:32 AM GMT on May 24, 2014

Tropical Storm Amanda is strengthening as it is moving slowly moving west-northwestward in the northeast Pacific Ocean. As of the 2:00 am PDT National Hurricane Center advisory, the maximum sustained winds of the tropical storm are 65 mph, and the minimum central pressure is 994 mb. It is moving west-northwestward at around 5 mph. The system is centered about 630 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Satellite imagery reveals a well-organized tropical storm with a prominent central dense overcast and improved outer banding pattern. Microwave imagery suggests a developing inner core structure as well as a mid-level eye underneath the central dense overcast.

Forecast for Amanda
Warm waters around 29┬░C and light vertical wind shear should allow Amanda to strengthen for at least the next 48 hours. With the establishing inner core, the cyclone have a high likelihood of rapid strengthening. In fact, the Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS model indicate a 55% chance of 40 kt wind increase within 24 hours. SHIPS, HWRF, and GFDL forecast rapid strengthening for the next 24-36 hours. After 48 hours and beyond, Amanda will encounter higher wind shear and cooler waters, which should result steady to rapid weakening of the cyclone.

Amanda is currently moving slowly west-northwestward as it is situated between the mid-level ridge centered over Mexico to the northeast and the mid to upper-level trough over southwestern United States to the north. This large-scale pattern should continue a slow west-northwestward motion for at least the next 24 hours or so. The trough is expected to shift to the east and should allow the ridge to re-strengthen. This, along with the approaching upper-level trough from the west, should cause the cyclone to turn northwestward and gradually turn northward in 36-48 hours. At this time, Amanda is not expected to be a significant threat to land.

Figure 1. Infrared satellite image of Tropical Storm Amanda. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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