By: Civicane49 , 2:50 AM GMT on June 25, 2013
Tropical Storm Cosme continues to organize and intensify steadily over the eastern Pacific. Satellite and microwave imagery depict a large but well-organized tropical storm. The deep convection is wrapping around the center, which is indicating that the eyewall is developing in its formative stage. That also indicates that the storm is close to becoming a hurricane. The eastern half of the eyewall is defined, but the other half remains open. As of the latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory, Cosme had maximum sustained winds of 65 mph and minimum barometric pressure of 994 mb. It is moving towards the northwest at 14 mph. The cyclone is centered about 320 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Figure 1. Evening infrared satellite image of Tropical Storm Cosme. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.
Forecast for Cosme
Cosme is anticipated to remain in favorable conditions during the next 24 hours with warm ocean temperatures above 26.5°C, light to moderate shear at 5-15 knots, and moist environment with 700-500 mb relative humidity values around 80%. I have no doubts that the storm will continue to intensify and become a minimal hurricane by tomorrow morning. University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows that an upper-level anticyclone remains over the system, which is helping to keep the shear light over Cosme. Models are predicting this anticyclone to remain in place for the next few days and this should keep the shear light over the tropical cyclone. After 24 hours, Cosme will enter into more hostile conditions with cooler waters and drier airmass. Rapid weakening is expected, and it should degenerate into a remnant low by late Friday.
The storm will continue to move northwestward in the next several hours before slowly turning towards the west-northwest as the mid-level ridge builds over northern Mexico and southwestern United States. By Friday, Cosme should turn westward within the east-west low-level flow as it weakens to a remnant low. Although Cosme will not make landfall as a tropical cyclone, the outer bands of the cyclone will bring some heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico. High waves and rip currents are also expected for the southern Mexican coast. By the middle of next week, the remnants of Cosme could bring enhanced shower activity over portions of Hawaii, mainly over the windward and mauka areas.
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