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TD 2 bringing a threat for heavy rain; outlook for the remainder of June

By: Civicane49 , 11:06 PM GMT on June 18, 2013

Tropical Depression Two continues to bring a threat for heavy rains and significant flooding to portions of northern Guatemala and eastern Mexico in the next couple of days; radar from Sabancuy, Mexico shows rain continuing to fall in those regions. The latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory stated that the tropical depression has maximum sustained winds of 30 mph and minimum barometric pressure of 1007 mb. It is moving west-northwestward at 10 mph. Satellite presentation of the tropical depression has increasingly improved since this morning as the low-level center continues to tighten, and the convective bands are redeveloping to the north of the center. The northern portion of the circulation center is over the Bay of Campeche, and the entire center will be over that region in the next hour or so.

Figure 1. Evening visible satellite image of Tropical Depression Two. Image credit: Mauna Kea Weather Center (MKWC).

Forecast for Tropical Depression Two
West-northwestward motion is expected during the next 24 hours by the influence of a weak ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. Beyond 24 hours, the system should turn westward as it will move across the southern Bay of Campeche and Mexico. Although one of the statistical models is showing the system moving north-northwestward after emerging over the Bay of Campeche, it should be discounted as the aforementioned ridge should prevent it from moving that far northward. The system would make its second landfall near Veracruz, Mexico on Thursday morning and will shortly dissipate over the Sierra Madre Oriental mountain range in Mexico by later that day.

Some brief strengthening is expected once the system moves over the Bay of Campeche within the next hour or so. However, time remains the limiting factor of this system; the cyclone will have very limited time over warm waters to strengthen greatly. Though, if the system manages to stay offshore longer than anticipated, then it is possible to become a tropical storm. Regardless, the system will continue to bring very heavy rain to portions of Guatemala and eastern Mexico for the day or two. This would cause dangerous floods over those regions.

Outlook for the remainder of June
Aside from Tropical Depression Two, no tropical cyclone development is anticipated in the next 48 hours for both the Atlantic and the eastern Pacific. After the tropical depression dissipates, the Atlantic basin will become quiet for the remainder of June as no global models are forecasting any significant tropical cyclone development later this month. The eastern Pacific is a different story, however. Global models, including the GFS, ECMWF, and CMC have been consistent in developing a tropical cyclone over the eastern Pacific by the final week of this month. Track and intensity will not be a concern for now as it remains in a long-range forecast. As we get closer, then we will have a better idea of what will likely occur. The upward Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is forecast to reach the Atlantic basin by the start of July and will increase convective activity across that basin. This would also increase the chances of tropical cyclone development and we should keep an eye on that.


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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2. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
9:59 PM GMT on June 19, 2013
Civicane49 has created a new entry.
1. TylerStanfield
11:34 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
Great read. Thanks.
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