By: Civicane49 , 2:04 AM GMT on October 06, 2012
Invest 96E has suddenly become organized earlier today and is remained organized on recent satellite image. However, shower and thunderstorm activity has somewhat diminished, likely due to diurnal minimum and some dry air. 96E is situated about 750 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. The system is moving west-northwestward at roughly 15 mph. The tropical disturbance is in an area of relatively favorable conditions, and it should continue to organize.
Forecast for 96E
96E appears to have a chance to develop before encountering hostile conditions. The SHIPS model shows that the system is forecasted to remain in relatively favorable conditions over the next 48 hours with warm sea surface temperature and low to moderate wind shear. UW-CIMSS analysis shows that an anticyclone is building over 96E. However, water vapor satellite loop depicts that the large area of dry air is present to the north and west of the disturbance. Dry air may hinder some further development of 96E. Therefore, I expect slow development of 96E over the next couple of days. After 48 hours, however, 96E is anticipated to enter into unfavorable conditions with cool sea surface temperatures, high wind shear, and more stable airmass. Weakening should be gradual. Many models are forecasting little or no development of 96E. I give this system a 60% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. 96E is forecasted to move generally west-northwestward over the next several days by the high pressure ridge over the Pacific Ocean. 96E is highly unlikely to threaten any land areas.
Figure 1. Evening infrared satellite image of Invest 96E. Image credit: Mauna Kea Weather Center (MKWC).
Elsewhere in the tropics
None of the global models are forecasting tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days. However, the GFS model is forecasting a tropical cyclone developing over the Caribbean Sea by the next fourteen days. The month of October is a time when tropical cyclones develop closer to home in the Atlantic basin. In the eastern Pacific, the GFS model is predicting a possible development just south of the border of Guatemala and Mexico by the next six days.
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