Fabio becomes a Category 2 hurricane; Emilia expected to weaken further

By: Civicane49 , 2:01 AM GMT on July 15, 2012

Fabio intensified to a Category 2 hurricane, after it maintained its strength in the past 24 hours. As of the latest National Hurricane Center advisory, Fabio has maximum sustained winds of 105 mph and minimum barometric pressure of 972 mbar, making it a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. The hurricane is moving west-northwestward at 9 mph, and it is located about 575 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Recent satellite loop reveals that the eye has become more symmetric and less ragged in the past several hours.

Forecast for Fabio
Fabio appears to be near peak intensity as the cyclone has about 12 hours left in favorable conditions with warm sea surface temperatures. Additional strengthening is possible. After 12 hours, however, the system is forecasted to enter cool sea surface temperatures at less than 26°C, which should commence the weakening trend of the cyclone. By the next 48 hours, Fabio should weaken rapidly as it is anticipated to be in colder waters at less than 23°C. Fabio could become a remnant low after the next 96 hours and later dissipate. Fabio is forecasted to continue moving west-northwestward over the 36 hours due to the high pressure ridge, which is situated north of the cyclone. After that, however, the trough of low pressure is anticipated to allow Fabio to turn north-northwestward and then northward in the next 48 to 72 hours and beyond. Most models are in good agreement with this forecast track. The remnants of Fabio might increase shower activity to southern California and northwestern Baja California by late next week.

Figure 1. Visible satellite imagery of Hurricane Fabio. Image credit: RAMMB imagery Colorado State University.

Emilia expected to weaken further
Tropical Storm Emilia maintains its strength as it moves westward. The latest National Hurricane Center advisory states that the tropical storm has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and minimum barometric pressure of 997 mbar. The storm is situated roughly 1585 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Recent satellite image depicts that Emilia has most of the convection activity located in the eastern side of the system. Additional weakening for Emilia is anticipated as it is expected to remain in unfavorable conditions with cool sea surface temperatures and dry atmospheric environment. Emilia is forecasted to become a remnant low in the next 36 hours or so. The system is forecasted to continue moving westward over the next several days by the southern edge of the high pressure ridge.

Figure 2. Infrared satellite imagery of Tropical Storm Emilia. Image credit: RAMMB imagery Colorado State University.

Civicane49

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5. MAweatherboy1
10:17 AM GMT on July 15, 2012
Nice post.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 93 Comments: 8901
4. nigel20
4:54 AM GMT on July 15, 2012
Very nice blog post...keep up the good work!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 9410
3. GeorgiaStormz
2:17 AM GMT on July 15, 2012
thx
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9897
2. Ameister12
2:12 AM GMT on July 15, 2012
Nice job, Civicane.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5167
1. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:06 AM GMT on July 15, 2012
Thanks.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 128 Comments: 35751

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