Hurricane Emilia on the weakening trend; Fabio strengthening

By: Civicane49 , 10:25 PM GMT on July 12, 2012

After little fluctuations in intensity of Emilia over the past couple of days, the cyclone now appears to begin the weakening trend. The hurricane is moving over cool sea surface temperatures at less than 26┬░C, which is the threshold for tropical cyclone that needs to sustain itself. In response to cool sea surface temperatures, Emilia begins to weaken as the satellite image shows the system becoming less organized. The latest National Hurricane Center advisory states that Emilia has maximum sustained winds of 105 mph and minimum central pressure of 965 mbar, making it a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. The cyclone is moving westward at 12 mph, and it is located roughly 980 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.

Forecast for Emilia
Now that Emilia will remain in unfavorable conditions with cool waters and dry atmospheric environment, the cyclone should begin the weakening trend. The system is expected to become a remnant low by the next four days or sooner. Similar to Hurricane Daniel's track, Emilia is forecasted to continue moving generally westward over the next five days by the high pressure ridge over the Pacific Ocean. Many global models are in good agreement with this forecast. Moreover, many models are forecasting the remnants of Emilia to pass south of Hawaii by the next eight to nine days. The remnant low might bring some added showers to the Hawaiian Islands, when it passes south of the islands.

Figure 1. Afternoon infrared satellite image of Hurricane Emilia. Image credit: RAMMB imagery Colorado State University.

Tropical Storm Fabio strengthening
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Fabio is strengthening as it is situated roughly 425 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico and moving west-northwestward at 10 mph. As of the latest National Hurricane Center advisory, Fabio has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and minimum central pressure of 1000 mbar. Recent satellite loop reveals that Fabio has not changed much over the past several hours; the cyclone maintains deep convection in the center.

Forecast for Fabio
Fabio is expected to continue strengthening over the next couple of days as it is forecasted to remain in favorable conditions with warm sea surface temperatures, moderate wind shear, and moist atmospheric environment. These conditions should allow the system to steadily strengthen and become a hurricane in the next two days. After two days, however, Fabio is anticipated to enter into unfavorable conditions with cold waters, which should weaken the cyclone rapidly. The system is likely to become a remnant low by the next five days. Fabio is anticipated to continue moving west-northwestward over the next three days. Afterwards, it is expected to turn north-northwestward due to the break in the high pressure ridge. Fabio is unlikely to be a significant threat to Mexico.

Figure 2. Afternoon infrared satellite image of Tropical Storm Fabio. Image credit: RAMMB imagery Colorado State University.

Civicane49

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3. KoritheMan
12:53 AM GMT on July 13, 2012
You kids and your blogs. But you know something? I freaking LOVE them!
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2. MAweatherboy1
12:11 AM GMT on July 13, 2012
Well done, I just finished a blog myself.
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1. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:55 PM GMT on July 12, 2012
Thanks for this.
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