Civicane49's WunderBlog

Rosa nearly a remnant low; 90E little threat to develop

By: Civicane49, 3:04 AM GMT on November 04, 2012

Tropical Depression Rosa is soon to become a remnant low. The latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory states that the cyclone has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and minimum central pressure of 1007 mb. It is located roughly 1025 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas in Mexico. The system is moving westward at 6 mph as it is embedded in an easterly flow. Recent satellite image reveals that the cyclone is a tight swirl of low clouds with limited deep convection. Rosa continues to succumb due to high upper-level southwesterly shear. A large upper-level low pressure trough is expected to continue generating strong wind shear over 30 knots to Rosa in the next several days. The depression will likely to degenerate into a remnant low early tomorrow. Rosa is forecasted to turn northwestward or possibly northward in the next few days. It is not anticipated to threaten any land areas.

Figure 1. Evening infrared satellite image of Tropical Depression Rosa. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.

90E little threat to develop
An area of low pressure centered roughly 400 miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico has been classified as Invest 90E. Last visible satellite image and recent ASCAT pass depict that the disturbance has a closed surface circulation. However, satellite image is also depicting that the thunderstorm activity is disorganized. Strong upper-level southwesterly shear is shifting deep shower and thunderstorm activity away to the east of the center. The SHIPS model is forecasting 90E to remain in a high shear environment for the next few days. I do not expect significant development of this system; I give this system a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Regardless of development, the system is currently bringing heavy rain to the southwestern coast of Mexico. Heavy rains are forecasted to linger in the next few days. 90E is anticipated to move northward or northwestward.

Figure 2. Evening infrared satellite image of Invest 90E. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.




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