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Update for Monday Storm

By: BwalshNLWeather , 5:33 PM GMT on December 29, 2013

Good afternoon,

A low approaching from Ontario and a low originating over the Southeastern US merge over the Maritimes Monday morning, then track over Eastern Newfoundland early Monday evening. Snow develops over Southwestern Newfoundland just after midnight tonight, spreading to the north and east Monday morning, reaching the St. John’s/Metro region near dawn. As the low will pass over Eastern Newfoundland, snow will change through a period of ice pellets and freezing rain, to drizzle late in the day south of an associated warm front. The low will be a quick-mover, so the duration of the storm will only be about 12-15 hours across the Island. The heaviest snowfall is likely over Southwestern Newfoundland, where the precipitation remains all snow, and 15-20 cm is likely. Elsewhere, snowfall amounts of 8-15 cm are expected in Newfoundland. There will be a 3-4 hour period of heavy snow late Monday morning/ afternoon where snowfall rates of 2-4 cm/hour are possible, which will correspond with winds gusting up to 80 km/h along the coast to produce reduced visibilities in blowing and drifting snow.

Timeline for St. John’s and the Northeast Avalon:
Light snow begins near dawn Monday (8-9 AM) and will become moderate to heavy later in the morning through mid-afternoon (11 AM – 3 PM), then changes to a period of ice pellets, then freezing rain later in the afternoon (3-6 PM), to drizzle in the evening (6-8 PM). Visibility will be reduced Monday morning and early afternoon in blowing and drifting snow. Temperatures rise to +3 Monday evening, falling below zero overnight.

Monday 6 - 9 AM: Snowfall amount 1 cm. Wind east 10-20 km/h.
Monday 9 AM – Noon: Snowfall amount 2-4 cm. Wind east 40 gusting to 60 km/h.
Monday Noon – 3 PM: Snowfall amount 6-8 cm. Wind east 50 gusting to 80 km/h.
Monday 3 – 6 PM: 1-2 cm snow/ice pellets; 1-2 mm freezing rain/drizzle. Wind east 40 gusting to 60 km/h.

Outlook: Another system is expected to affect Newfoundland Friday into early Saturday. There is currently a lot of disagreement regarding the track and intensity of this system, but updates will be sent later in the week as the situation becomes more clear.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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About BwalshNLWeather

Operations Manager and Meteorologist with Ice & Environmental Services at Provincial Aerospace Ltd. I've been weather forecasting since 2000.

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