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Bad Day for Forecasters/Weather Models

By: BwalshNLWeather , 5:04 PM GMT on April 19, 2014

Good afternoon,

Today is one of those humbling days where we, as meteorologists, see our forecast go completely bust as we are at the mercy of the weather models. Today’s projected system is much weaker than expected and contains quite a bit less moisture than what model projections earlier in the week were forecasting. Light snow through this afternoon over the Northeast Coast, including the Bonavista Peninsula, Clarenville and Terra Nova will taper to flurries tonight. Amounts in this area could be 5-8 cm by Sunday morning. For the Avalon, light snow have lifted north of the region and the afternoon will just see a mix of ice pellets and freezing drizzle. Flurries, or occasional light snow, redevelops this evening, ending Sunday morning, with amounts of 2-4 cm expected.

Flurries end Sunday morning in Eastern Newfoundland, with fair skies developing in the afternoon, but temperatures remain below seasonal. High pressure builds over the Island on Monday, with temperatures warming up above zero. A weak trough moves over Newfoundland Tuesday, bringing some scattered wet flurries and showers.

The biggest event for this upcoming week will be a low that will move south of Newfoundland on Wednesday and could linger through next weekend. This will provide lots of easterly/northeasterly winds to the Island and unsettled weather, with plenty of cloud, showers, drizzle and, of course, fog, not to mention no big warm-up in temperatures.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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10:01 AM GMT on April 23, 2014
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About BwalshNLWeather

Operations Manager and Meteorologist with Ice & Environmental Services at Provincial Aerospace Ltd. I've been weather forecasting since 2000.

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