@BwalshNL Weather's Blog

Potential for Significant Ice on the Avalon

By: BwalshNLWeather, 10:01 AM GMT on April 23, 2014

Good morning,

Here is the forecast for the Avalon Peninsula.

Today: Cloudy. Occasional drizzle and fog patches along the coast. Risk of freezing drizzle this morning. High 6, except 2 in an onshore winds. Wind becoming east 30 gusting to 50 km/h this morning.

Tonight: Drizzle changing to freezing rain this evening. Coastal fog patches. Low minus 1. Rainfall amount 10 mm. Wind northeast 40 gusting to 70 km/h.

Thursday: Freezing rain changing to rain in the morning. Coastal fog patches. High plus 2. Rainfall amount 10 mm. Wind northeast 40 gusting to 70 km/h.

Thursday Night: Rain, drizzle and fog. Rainfall amount 10-15 mm. Temperature steady near plus 2. Wind east 40 gusting to 60 km/h.

Friday: Rain tapering to drizzle in the morning. Fog. High plus 5. Wind northeast 30 gusting to 50 km/h diminishing to light in the afternoon.

Friday Night: Drizzle and fog. Low plus 3.

Saturday: Cloudy. Coastal fog patches. High 8.

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Bad Day for Forecasters/Weather Models

By: BwalshNLWeather, 5:04 PM GMT on April 19, 2014

Good afternoon,

Today is one of those humbling days where we, as meteorologists, see our forecast go completely bust as we are at the mercy of the weather models. Today’s projected system is much weaker than expected and contains quite a bit less moisture than what model projections earlier in the week were forecasting. Light snow through this afternoon over the Northeast Coast, including the Bonavista Peninsula, Clarenville and Terra Nova will taper to flurries tonight. Amounts in this area could be 5-8 cm by Sunday morning. For the Avalon, light snow have lifted north of the region and the afternoon will just see a mix of ice pellets and freezing drizzle. Flurries, or occasional light snow, redevelops this evening, ending Sunday morning, with amounts of 2-4 cm expected.

Flurries end Sunday morning in Eastern Newfoundland, with fair skies developing in the afternoon, but temperatures remain below seasonal. High pressure builds over the Island on Monday, with temperatures warming up above zero. A weak trough moves over Newfoundland Tuesday, bringing some scattered wet flurries and showers.

The biggest event for this upcoming week will be a low that will move south of Newfoundland on Wednesday and could linger through next weekend. This will provide lots of easterly/northeasterly winds to the Island and unsettled weather, with plenty of cloud, showers, drizzle and, of course, fog, not to mention no big warm-up in temperatures.

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Update for Saturday

By: BwalshNLWeather, 1:27 PM GMT on April 18, 2014

Good morning,

After a beautiful Good Friday across the Island, the only blemish on the long Easter weekend is the system approaching for Saturday. The weather models have been shifting quite a bit over the past few days, but look to be in better agreement today regarding the track and intensity of the low, which will approach from the south overnight and pass just southeast of the Avalon Saturday evening. While the highest snowfall amounts have been lowered since earlier this week, I’m still expecting totals of 10-15 cm for the Northern Avalon over to Clarenville, Terra Nova and the Bonavista Peninsula, which is still a big inconvenience this late in the year and on a busy travel weekend. Even with a track just southeast of the Avalon Saturday night, there is still a good chance of snow mixing with ice pellets and freezing rain on the Avalon Saturday afternoon, and could still change to a bit of rain over the Southeastern Avalon. Based on the current guidance, snow develops across Southern and Eastern Newfoundland Saturday morning, before tapering to flurries Saturday evening. Flurries end overnight Saturday and fair skies should move back over the Island on Sunday, which continue Monday.

Storm Timeline for St. John’s-Metro:
Saturday 6 – 9 AM: Light snow developing. Snowfall amount 2 cm. Wind southeast 25-35 km/h.
Saturday 9 AM – Noon: Snow and blowing snow. Snowfall amount 3-4 cm. Wind east-southeast 30 gusting to 50 km/h.
Saturday Noon – 3 PM: Snow mixing with ice pellets. Blowing snow. Snow/ice pellet amount 2-4 cm. Wind east 30 gusting to 50 km/h.
Saturday 3 – 6 PM: Light snow mixed with freezing drizzle and ice pellets. Snow/ice pellet amount 1-2 cm. Freezing rain amount 1-2 mm. Wind northeast 30 gusting to 50 km/h.
Saturday 6 – 9 PM: Light snow mixed with freezing drizzle tapering to flurries. Snowfall amount 1 cm. Freezing rain amount 1 mm. Wind north 40 gusting to 60 km/h.
Saturday 9 PM – Midnight: Flurries. Snowfall amount 1 cm. Wind north 40 gusting to 60 km/h.
Sunday Midnight – 6 AM: Flurries ending. Snowfall amount 1 cm. Wind northwest 40 gusting to 60 km/h.

Precipitation Amounts Saturday:
Southern Avalon: 4-8 cm snow/ice pellets. 2-5 mm freezing rain. 2-5 mm rain
Northern Avalon (including St. John’s)/Burin Peninsula: 10-15 cm snow/ice pellets; 2-5 mm freezing rain
Clarenville/Bonavista/Terra Nova: 10-15 cm snow
Central (east of Grand Falls-Windsor): 5-10 cm snow
Central (west of Grand Falls-Windsor): 2-5 cm snow
West Coast and Northern Peninsula: Less than 2 cm snow

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Easter Weekend Update

By: BwalshNLWeather, 11:15 AM GMT on April 17, 2014

Good morning,

The weather models continue to have some difficulty in predicting the exact track and intensity of a system that will approach Newfoundland, from the south, on Saturday. The most recent guidance has shifted the track further to the southeast, which means that western side of Newfoundland will likely escape the system, with the heaviest snowfall amounts over Eastern Newfoundland. Even with a track east of the Avalon Saturday night, there is still a good chance of snow mixing with ice pellets and freezing rain on the Avalon. It’s unlikely that rain will mix in, except possibly over the Southeastern Avalon Saturday evening near the low. Based on the current guidance, snow develops across Southern and Eastern Newfoundland Saturday morning, before tapering to flurries Saturday evening. Flurries end overnight Saturday and fair skies should move back over the Island on Sunday.

Precipitation Amounts Saturday:
Southern Avalon: 5-10 cm snow/ice pellets. 5-10 mm freezing rain
Northern Avalon (including St. John’s)/Burin Peninsula: 10-15 cm snow/ice pellets; 2-5 mm freezing rain
Clarenville/Bonavista/Terra Nova: 15-20 cm snow
Central: 5-10 cm snow
Western: 2-5 cm snow
Northern Peninsula: Less than 2 cm snow

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Spring Weather Replaced by Winter Storm for Easter

By: BwalshNLWeather, 11:30 AM GMT on April 16, 2014

Good morning,

After a brief taste of spring this week with mid-teen temperatures, it looks like Newfoundland will have one last (hopefully) winter blast for the Easter weekend. A low moves south of the Maritimes Friday night, and slowly moves northeastward through the weekend, as it intensifies, and tracks over, or just east of, Eastern Newfoundland early Sunday morning. There is still considerable disagreement on the intensity and exact track of the low, which will have a significant impact on the location of the heaviest snowfall and whether snow will mix with, or change to, rain Saturday night in Eastern Newfoundland. Based on the current guidance, snow develops across Southern and Eastern Newfoundland late Saturday morning, spreading northward through the afternoon. As the low approaches the Avalon Saturday night, snow will become mixed with ice pellets, and depending on the track, could change over to rain, particularly on the Southern Avalon overnight. Precipitation should remain all snow west of the Avalon and Burin Peninsulas, with significant snowfall amounts up to 30 cm possible. In addition, strong winds gusting to 90 km/h will produce blowing and drifting snow, particularly Saturday night and Sunday in Eastern Newfoundland.

Anyone with travel plans this weekend, particularly driving, across Newfoundland may face delays and/or poor road conditions Saturday morning through Sunday morning.

Below is a preliminary forecast for Newfoundland this weekend. These numbers will be adjusted through the week as the system approaches.

Precipitation Amounts Saturday/Sunday:
Avalon/Burin Peninsula: 10-20 cm snow/ice pellets; 5-10 mm rain (Higher snowfall amounts if precipitation stays all snow and ice pellets; less snow if low tracks over Eastern Newfoundland)
Clarenville/Bonavista/Terra Nova: 15-25 cm snow
South Coast (Port aux Basques to Burin Peninsula): 15-25 cm snow/ice pellets
Central: 15-30 cm snow
Western: 10-15 cm snow
Northern Peninsula: 5 cm snow

I will have more updates on this potential storm through the week.

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Avalon Forecast - April 14, 2014

By: BwalshNLWeather, 10:12 AM GMT on April 14, 2014

Good morning,

Here is the forecast for the Avalon Peninsula.

Monday: Mostly cloudy. Flurries develop late this afternoon. High plus 3. Wind increasing to south 20-30 km/h this afternoon.

Monday Night: Flurries changing to freezing rain this evening, then to drizzle near midnight. Fog patches. Snowfall amount less than 2 cm. Rainfall amount 2-5 mm. Low minus 1 this evening, rising to plus 6 overnight. Wind increasing to south 40 gusting to 60 km/h this evening, becoming southwest 40 gusting to 60 km/h overnight.

Tuesday: Cloudy with sunny periods. Fog and occasional drizzle on the Southern Avalon. High 12, except steady near 6 on the Southern Avalon. Wind southwest 40 gusting to 70 km/h.

Tuesday Night: Cloudy with occasional drizzle and fog. Low 8, except 4 on the Southern Avalon. Wind southwest 30 gusting to 50 km/h.

Wednesday: Sun and cloud. Fog and occasional drizzle on the Southern Avalon. High 15, except 7 on the Southern Avalon. Wind southwest 40 gusting to 70 km/h.

Wednesday Night: Showers, drizzle and fog. Low plus 2. Wind southwest 40 gusting to 60 km/h shifting to northwest 30 km/h overnight.

Thursday: Sun and cloud. High plus 5. Wind north 20-30 km/h.

Thursday Night: Mainly clear. Low minus 4. Wind north 20 km/h. Wind chill minus 12.

Friday: Mainly sunny. High plus 5. Wind west 20 km/h.

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Avalon Forecast - April 11, 2014

By: BwalshNLWeather, 10:21 AM GMT on April 11, 2014

Good morning,

Here is the forecast for the Avalon Peninsula.

Friday: Mainly sunny. Increasing cloud this afternoon. High 6. Wind increasing to southwest 40 gusting to 70 km/h near noon.

Friday Night: Cloudy with showers developing near midnight. Amount 2-5 mm. Coastal fog patches. Low plus 3. Wind southwest 30 gusting to 50 km/h diminishing to southwest 20 km/h overnight.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with showers ending early in the morning and redeveloping in the afternoon. Coastal fog patches. High 8.

Saturday Night: Rain changing to freezing drizzle overnight. Rainfall amount 10 mm. Low zero.

Sunday: Sun and cloud. High 7. Wind west 20 km/h.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy. Low minus 3.

Monday: Increasing cloud with showers developing in the afternoon. Fog patches. High 7. Wind south 20-30 km/h.

Monday Night: Showers ending overnight, then partly cloudy. Low plus 3. Wind southwest 30 gusting to 50 km/h.

Tuesday: Sun and cloud. Fog on the Southern Avalon. High 7 on the Southern Avalon coast to 13 inland. Wind southwest 40 gusting to 60 km/h.

Wednesday: Sun and cloud. Fog on the Southern Avalon. High 8 on the Southern Avalon coast to 16 inland. Wind southwest 40 gusting to 60 km/h.

Updated: 10:23 AM GMT on April 11, 2014

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Springtime Weather

By: BwalshNLWeather, 12:24 AM GMT on April 08, 2014

Good evening,

After a long winter across much of Canada, there are positive signs of spring over the coming weeks as milder (near normal) temperatures move over Newfoundland and Labrador, along with the potential for rain and fog, causing significant snow melt. The first system to affect the province approaches from the Maritimes late Tuesday and tracks into Southeastern Labrador Wednesday. Snow develops across the Island, from west to east, Tuesday night, changing to rain across Newfoundland by Wednesday morning as the associated warm front lifts northward. Rain ends from west to east on Wednesday as the cold front moves eastward, although the rain will persist until early Thursday morning on the Avalon as the front stalls over the region. Rainfall amounts will be highest on the South Coast and Avalon Peninsula Wednesday/early Thursday where 30-60 mm of rain is possible. The rain, in combination with fog, mild temperatures and southerly winds gusting up to 110 km/h along the coasts, will lead to significant snow melt and could produce localized flooding, particularly on the South Coast and Burin Peninsulas Wednesday.

Timeline for St. John’s and the Northeast Avalon:
Wednesday 12 – 6 AM: Light snow changing to rain. Fog. Risk of freezing rain. Snowfall amount 2-4 cm. Rainfall amount 5 mm. Wind south 40 gusting to 60 km/h increasing to south 60 gusting to 100 km/h.
Wednesday 6 AM – Noon: Rain and fog. Amount 10 mm. Wind south 60 gusting to 100 km/h.
Wednesday Noon – 6 PM: Rain and fog. Amount 5-10 mm. Wind southwest 50 gusting to 80 km/h.
Wednesday 6 PM – Midnight: Rain tapering to showers. Fog. Amount 2-5 mm. Wind southwest 40 gusting to 60 km/h.
Thursday 12 – 6 AM: Showers, drizzle and fog. Wind southwest 30 gusting to 50 km/h.
Thursday 6 AM – Noon: Showers, drizzle and fog ending, then clearing. Wind west 30 gusting to 50 km/h.

Snowfall and Rainfall Amounts by Thursday Morning:
St. John’s-Metro/Avalon Peninsula: 2-5 cm snow; 25-40 mm rain
South Coast/Burin Peninsula: 5 cm snow; 40-70 mm rain
Clarenville/Bonavista/Central Newfoundland: 5-10 cm snow; 10-20 mm rain
West Coast: 10 cm snow; 10-20 mm rain
Northern Peninsula/Southeastern Labrador: 15-20 cm snow; 5-10 mm rain
Northern and Western Labrador: 10-15 cm snow

Outlook: After the system clears out on Thursday, no significant systems are expected to affect Newfoundland through early next week. Temperatures will remain near, to slightly above, seasonal through next week, with the potential for values near the double digits early next week for inland sections of the Island.

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@BwalshNL Weather's Blog

About BwalshNLWeather

Operations Manager and Meteorologist with Ice & Environmental Services at Provincial Aerospace Ltd. I've been weather forecasting since 2000.

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