I'm a 31 year old weather enthusiast from Central Ohio. Certified SKYWARN storm spotter.
By: Buckey2745 , 2:30 PM GMT on August 21, 2014
The SPC has a slight risk for severe weather out for the western half of Ohio, but I don't think that'll be our concern today. I've been watching an area of storms develop for the past few hours and it looks like training will be an issue today.
Training is when multiple heavy storms move over the same areas consecutively over several hours, causing torrential rainfall rates and sometimes causing localized flash flooding.
Watching this large area that reaches back to Chicago, I believe areas right along the US33 corridor could be in for 2" of rain or even more.
Model guidance suggests this large area, with the heaviest storms on the northeast side, should move in to the Columbus area soon and eventually make a turn to the east. But that turn won't come until after very heavy rain inundates us for several hours:
The HRRR is indicating rainfall totals in to this evening in the 1-2" range, with the heaviest amounts south of that US33 line I suggested, but I believe future runs will move those totals north... and increase them:
In this constant northwest flow some models have also suggested an even larger MCS develops in the late afternoon hours over Wisconsin and make its way southeast towards us overnight. If this scenario does develop I absolutely expect a Flood Watch to be issued this afternoon. Areas that do get the 2"+ I am forecasting will be in a serious threat of widespread flooding with an overnight heavy rain as well.
I may update later as rain accumulates.
The first batch of rain isn't completely gone yet as we have the back end is between Dayton and Columbus right now, moving southeast. This may give us another 0.1 to 0.2" of rain. So far in Canal Winchester I've received 0.65" of rain, which is probably near tops in the county as a small swath from Galloway to Carroll has seen some of the heaviest totals.
I was off about my 2" prediction. Some of the storms actually began to weaken as they entered our less than favorable airmass.
The SPC has now put the southwestern half of Ohio in a Slight Risk area for storm redevelopment this afternoon:
I feel pretty strongly that afternoon or evening thunderstorms will not develop in our area. We've had about 4-5 hours of constant rain, leaving the atmosphere completely worked over. Cloud cover seems pretty unlikely to subside in time to recharge things, so that would leave us waiting for a late night MCS to develop as I suggested earlier. While that has started to come together over Chicago, I just don't feel like this will reach the Columbus area. In fact if it does turn in to a large event, I think it stays just north of us.
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