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April 7th: Slight Risk of Severe Today

By: Buckey2745 , 3:13 PM GMT on April 07, 2014

Last week's severe weather never panned out for us here in Central Ohio which is why I never posted a follow up to the slight risk threat from the SPC. But now we have a Slight Risk for us here in Central and Southern Ohio. This threat looks more promising than last weeks, but it still isn't a classic setup.

Below is the severe risk map for today:

I don't feel really confident about our severe potential today for the simple fact that we will be shrouded in clouds and precip all day before the elevated instability finally enters our area in the late evening hours.

I think the only reason we still have a chance today is because we will be so close to the deepening low pressure center. With the low passing in to Western Ohio after dark, our wind threat will increase. But still, only a small area of 500 J/kg CAPE will exist in the airmass, and it'll be right around or after dark:

I think it's a marginal threat today, and if anything we should be on the lookout for heavy rain again after we got an impressive 1.43" of rain from our last storm. Flooding could be a threat again.

Overall, here's what I think our probabilities are today:

Tornado Watch/Warning: <1%
Severe Thunderstorm Watch/Warning: 15%

Keep safe our there today.

UPDATE: 3:46pm
The SPC is considering a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the southern half of our state, but without very high confidence in it:

We're already seeing storms develop in northern Kentucky on radar. No warnings out yet, but some of these could intensify as they move in to Ohio:

Wind shear is extremely high in Kentucky and southern Ohio right now, which could allow some storms to rotate, but I still think high winds will be the primary threat to our south. Up around Columbus, I still don't have much confidence that severe weather will make it this far north, and neither does the SPC if they're really only considering a watch for the southern half of the state.

I'll post again if we get a Watch this far north.

Severe Weather Stats:
Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 1
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0
Tornado Watches: 0
Tornado Warnings: 0
Flood Watches: 2
Flood Warnings: 2
Heat Advisories: 0
Excessive Heat Warnings: 0
Red Flag Warnings: 0

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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3:01 PM GMT on April 12, 2014
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Central Ohio

About Buckey2745

I'm a 31 year old weather enthusiast from Central Ohio. Certified SKYWARN storm spotter.

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Canal Winchester, OH
Elevation: 754 ft
Temperature: 34.0 °F
Dew Point: 18.2 °F
Humidity: 52%
Wind: 4.0 mph from the NE
Wind Gust: 5.0 mph
Updated: 8:49 PM EDT on March 22, 2017

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