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Sunday Update

By: Buckey2745 , 9:58 PM GMT on February 02, 2014

I didn't plan on posting again today but the southern extend of Winter Storm "Maximus" appears it'll come close enough to us here in the Columbus area to be an issue overnight.

Currently snow is working across the Ohio River toward our area, but I still think the heaviest snows will stay down that way and not in and around Columbus. Why? Because dry air has been inhibiting snow as it moves toward the dryer air that has set in post frontal:

I think we could see the precipitation shield reach as far north as NW Franklin County, and with about 3-4 hours of light to moderate snow in the overnight hours, I think we could see a little accumulation.

I don't want to go as far as drawing an entire snowfall map for this event, but it's a tight gradient from NW to SE. From least to most, here's what we should see by tomorrow:

Dublin: 0.25"
Columbus: 0.50"
Canal Winchester: 0.75"
Lancaster: 1.5"
Logan: 3"

In a straight line down US33 were the totals I highlighted, which would give you a pretty good visual of where the gradient is if you wanted to paint totals anywhere west or east of that line.

This could be a HUGE storm for southern Ohio and northern Kentucky where I think they will end up with 6-7" of snow.

The closer this gets and the more the models are coming in to agreement, this thing could be a monster. The three major models disagree on the placement of the low by about 100 miles total, but that's huge when it comes to ice and snow totals. Or... even just plain rain totals for some areas to our south. Here's the spread between the models:

The Euro is currently bringing us the most snow from this, but I'm not even ready to discuss totals yet. What interests me more right now is the placement of the low, and the way the Euro not only takes it further south, but almost on a curved trajectory would mean the most winter weather for us.

Notice I didn't say snow.

Because for right now this is going to be too close to call on freezing rain, sleet, snow, rain... all. As of right now I feel like we may see all of these at one point over a 24 hour period here in the Columbus area.

This has the makings of our biggest storm of the season. The impacts could be crippling if we have a long lasting icing event. It could be pretty bad too if we get hit with the dreaded heavy snow that this city seems to shut down for, too.

Early prediction: I still say this system comes in a little warmer than even some of the last second high resolution models will show. How will that affect us? That'll still depend on track, which is why I'm not ready to say for sure yet what we will have and how much. What I do think is north of Columbus will be the big winners in this one, with most likely all snow. Columbus will be right there in that transition zone where I think we could be either/or. Snow. Sleet. Freezing rain. And south? That's where we could see quite a bit of rain or even a decent icing event before the rain takes over.

I will post again tomorrow.

Season Stats:
Winter Weather Advisories- 9
Winter Storm Warnings- 1
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 2
Wind Chill Advisories- 4
Wind Chill Warnings- 2
Blowing Snow Advisory- 0

Snowfall Totals:
November: 3" (Predicted: 3")
December: 8.05" (Predicted: 7")
January: 15.1" (Predicted: 7")
Season: 26.15"

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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4:00 PM GMT on February 03, 2014
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About Buckey2745

I'm a 31 year old weather enthusiast from Central Ohio. Certified SKYWARN storm spotter.

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Wind: 1.0 mph from the SW
Wind Gust: 1.0 mph
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