I'm a 31 year old weather enthusiast from Central Ohio. Certified SKYWARN storm spotter.
By: Buckey2745 , 12:24 PM GMT on November 16, 2013
The situation for Sunday is looking more serious by the minute. Computer models yesterday started cranking out some serious "significant tornado" parameters, and the SPC this morning really took it to the next level with a Moderate Risk already forecasted for all of Ohio on Sunday:
The reality of this situation is Ohio is in the bullseye for one of the worst "second season" severe weather outbreaks of the year.
As a low pressure system moves from the Plains it will bomb out over the Great Lakes. This is similar to the Halloween storm a few weeks ago in the sense that this rapid pressure drop will crank the lower level jet and really intensify the frontal winds, allowing for a damaging wind threat with a line of storms.
Right now there are two parts of this storm. The first part is early to mid-afternoon we could see significant supercells developing pre-frontal with this. IF... and that's a big if... the atmosphere destabilizes just a little bit, these storms could pop, and with the extreme shear we will be experiencing, these storms will absolutely rotate.
But that's conditional. I don't have high faith in that scenario playing out.
However, the second part will be a squall line that will develop with the front. This, much like the Halloween storm, will bring a high wind threat, and will pose a risk with imbedded tornadoes. Weak, but still a threat. This line could be stronger than the Halloween storm. All of the parameters are there for an almost derecho-like event with this line.
It's not very often that we see a High Risk outlook here in Central Ohio, let alone in the middle of November, but I think that's a real possibility tomorrow.
If you're reading this from anywhere in Ohio, please be alert tomorrow. The supercells with round 1 may be very easy to spot and prepare for. However, it's the second round, the squall line, that will come through after dark that will be very hard to spot tornadoes in. If a warning is issued for your area, take the precautions.
I'll start a liveblog for this event tomorrow.
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