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July 10th: The Last Round

By: Buckey2745 , 3:36 PM GMT on July 10, 2013

Finally, reprieve from a cold front arrives overnight.

But before we can get to a cool down and an eventual stop to our deluge, we have one more day of severe weather and heavy rain ahead of us. And this could be a pretty big one.

Our focus today will be from a MCS over Illinois that should bring the forcing we need later on. The system itself is slowly progressing eastward, but with storms on more of a southeasterly march I don't think the actual MCS itself will be our severe weather of the day. Instead I expect an outflow boundary to develop out ahead of this as storms begin to rain out and push cooler air in to our extremely unstable airmass:

Speaking of our airmass, it's 11:30am and the heat index is 95°. That's because of an oppressive dewpoint of 76.7°!. This is some of the most moist conditions I believe I have seen in a long time around here. This is tropical in nature.

When you combine all of these things, we could really be looking at some big wind and hail producing storms this afternoon, along of course with flooding rains. Our Flash Flood Watch is still in effect for the rest of the day, and with absolutely saturated grounds throughout the state, one tiny storm could over run creeks and streams. When you factor in that the storms today will absolutely be heavy rain makers, there is no doubt that today will be a volatile day.

I plan on updating later with Watches and forecast updates.

UPDATE: 12:50pm
There's our watch, our sixth of the season:

The SPC points at high wind events being our main threat, but also highlights our extremely high PWATs and high flood risk.

UPDATE: 1:46pm
Looks like I was wrong about a second line coming from an outflow boundary. It appears the entire MCS has congealed in to a large squall line.

Smaller cells are slowly developing in the soupy airmass out ahead of the main system, and those very well could become severe in a short amount of time. But the main event will get here sometime near or after evening rush hour, between 6pm and 8pm.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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2. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:19 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
Buckey2745 has created a new entry.
1. AnalogueKid
7:13 PM GMT on July 10, 2013
NWS is reporting wind damage in St. Mary's, estimated 80 mph winds.
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Central Ohio

About Buckey2745

I'm a 31 year old weather enthusiast from Central Ohio. Certified SKYWARN storm spotter.

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