I'm a 31 year old weather enthusiast from Central Ohio. Certified SKYWARN storm spotter.
By: Buckey2745 , 1:57 AM GMT on February 11, 2009
The calendar says February, but it might as well say June. Although if you ask some around here, we've seen this before and it feels a lot like September 2008 again.
A two-pronged spring-like system will be moving in to our area tonight through tomorrow night. This system poses two very serious threats.
It seems uncommon that we would see severe thunderstorms in February, but given the perfect situation, you can see severe weather in every month of the year.
Very warm air has moved in to our area over the past few days. When the much colder air from the strengthening low pressure meets our current air mass, we have the potential for a fast moving squall line of severe weather with wind, lightning, and even tornadoes.
Wednesday's severe weather threat
I give a 30% chance that we actually see severe weather. While our air is moist and warm, I'm not positive we'll see the forcing required to build high thunderstorm tops and produce tornadoes.
High Wind Warning
We're under a high wind warning starting Wednesday afternoon. After the cold front passes through, a tight pressure gradient from the strong low pressure will increase winds. We could see 65mph wind gusts tomorrow evening.
This is obviously reminiscent of September's wind storm. The scenarios are similar too. A strong low pressure will pass north of our area, butted up against a strong Atlantic high pressure.
Sustained winds of 30-40mph will be observed. Gusts between 45-55mph seem likely, with possibly as high as 65mph gusts. The strongest winds should occur between 10pm Wednesday and 4am Thursday.
Wednesday's high wind potential
I see damaging winds being likely tomorrow. 90% chance perhaps. The best chance we miss the strong winds would be if the low pressure moves further north than predicted, or doesn't strengthen as deep as expected.
Our area is set up for a devistating tree damage if winds exceed 40mph for any amount of time. The ice storm two weeks ago, and the week's snow melt have weakened the tree branches and roots.
Widespread power outages should be expected Wednesday night in to Thursday morning.
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