I'm a 31 year old weather enthusiast from Central Ohio. Certified SKYWARN storm spotter.
By: Buckey2745 , 11:10 PM GMT on December 18, 2012
Winter Storm "Draco" is taking shape over the Rockies this evening and on its way for the Great Lakes region. The path of this storm determines a lot in terms of what we will see Thursday evening in to Friday. Here's what we know for sure about the impacts:
The deepening low will put us in the warm sector Thursday morning and a line of heavy rain and possibly thunderstorms. Amount could vary, but expect at least a half an inch of rain throughout the day Thursday.
Wind is the next phase as the cold front passes. Winds will go from 10mph to 30mph sustained and gusts as high as 45mph. As of now that's just below advisory criteria, but we've seen Wilmington throw advisories up as a precaution lately, so I imagine we'll see the same with the post-frontal portion of this storm.
This is still one of those pieces of the storm that is up in the air. Literally. How much cold air will wrap around on the backside of this low as is passes to our north? Once the cold air moves in, how much wrap around moisture will there be coming in off of Lake Michigan and the deepened low pressure?
The current GFS shows now that the low pressure will come in a little "flatter" across the country, meaning it'll be more of a west to east track rather than southwest to northeast. That allows the low to pass closer to us, and brings us a better chance of wrap around snow showers.
GFS Thursday night in to Friday morning.
Keep in mind, if the moisture develops on the backside these will only be snow showers. It'll be nothing like the heavy snow Wisconsin will see earlier in the day on Thursday. However, the temps should drop low enough for any showers to stick on grassy areas. Does that promise a White Christmas like a dispelled yesterday? Not quite, but we'll see.
I'll write more tomorrow as the storm gets closer.
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