The 'Big Miss' - Part 2

By: Buckey2745 , 2:30 PM GMT on December 12, 2010

The center of the storm is just north of us at the Michigan border, and moving east. That means the arctic air behind the storm is on its way. In fact the initial cold front should be passing through our area within the hour. We're still holding steady, within a couple degrees of where we've been for the past 12 hours, at 39┬░. Overnight we got roughly 0.31" of rain from the warm sector of the storm...

But everything's about to change.

Wind out of the south will switch to westerly. Temperatures will take an inital plummet as the winds change. Any remaining moisture (which won't be much) will change over to snow. And part two of this massive storm will begin to affect us.

(As I typed this, large snowflakes began mixing with the rain.)

But first, we'll have to wait. Once the front passes in the next hour, we're going to see a large dry slot the size of Indiana keep us pinned down for possibly the next 12 hours:

After that we should see some light snow that's currently in Illinois move our way and give us a little accumulation overnight. But that may be it for most of us with the snow. The 3" I predicted yesterday may not come true unless we get some help from Lake Michigan.

And some people will get that help. This large fetch that has been forecasted days in advance should set up and spread across Indiana and all the way toward the Cincinnati area:

However, just the slightest miscalculation in where this heaviest band of snow sets up tonight and tomorrow could mean the difference between Cincinnati getting 4"+ and Columbus getting it.

We've seen 3" of snow before, so that's not going to be a shocker with this storm. What will be is the bitterly cold temperatures that come along with it. With high gusts on Monday, we could easily see wind chills below zero.

What about the actual temperatures? We won't see them budge much from the high teens and lower 20's... with lows Monday and Tuesday getting in the single digits. I wouldn't be surprised to see some places get close to zero Tuesday night with enough clearing.

There's a good chance we see our first wind chill advisory in two seasons here in Central Ohio. This certainly is a rough way to start December.

UPDATE: Sunday, 12:56pm
After I wrote the above, the changeover to snow was complete. Although temps stayed above freezing for another hour or so, we were able to accumulate roughly 0.5" of snow on grassy areas.

Temperatures have dropped to 30┬░ where they'll probably stay until sunset.

The dry slot has begun filling in faster than originally anticipated, so we may actually see additional snow showers throughout the day and tonight... which may help us actually get closer to the 3" totals I predicted over the 48 hour period.

UPDATE: Sunday, 5:07pm
A large area of snow has setup over the Cincinnati/Dayton region in the past couple hours, and hasn't been moving anywhere fast. It's moderate in rate, and early reports have already seen upwards of 3" of snow there.

This area, and more from Indiana, will eventually begin to rotate in to our area:

Also as the night goes on, winds should increase above 25mph, making the road crew's job even more difficult. I wouldn't be surprised to see some snow emergencies to our southwest tomorrow.

UPDATE: Sunday, 9:34pm
With steady snow falling across the area now, and winds slowly picking up, blowing snow will be the main concern for the next 24 hours. With this blowing snow is our first set of county snow emergencies for the season:

County snow emergencies as of 9:30pm on Sunday

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About Buckey2745

I'm a 31 year old weather enthusiast from Central Ohio. Certified SKYWARN storm spotter.

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