A Little Dry

By: Buckey2745 , 1:36 AM GMT on September 13, 2010

On September 3rd I wrote about how August was our third wettest month of the year so far with 5.79". But those numbers are deceptive, especially since most of our rain fell on two days (August 4th and 13th).

And since then?

Well, in the past 28 days we have had 0.59" of rain, spread out over exactly two days. The rain threat I wrote about yesterday? Didn't even record a trace here at home.

The CPC currently believes 73.4% of the state of Ohio is Abnormally Dry. This percentage is slowly going up with each week that passes by.

Drought index from the CPC

It's been a while since we've been considered Abnormally Dry, and the month of September probably won't do us any favors. September is historically a dry month here in Ohio, where we average between 2-3" of rain this month.

Not promising.

Thursday, September 16th GFS model

Thursday is our next good chance at rain, but without looking too deeply at our next system I can tell you that we won't get very beneficial rain from it. It's a cold front, and all the precip would be in a line out ahead of the front. So maybe a quarter of an inch at the most?

What we really need is deepening low pressure systems rolling out of the Plains and in to the lower Great Lakes. Long range models indicate our pattern may favor that next week, but it's hard to trust that prediction this far out.

What IS interesting is what I saw near the end of the latest GFS model run. Cool... wait, nearly COLD temps.

The September 25th section of the GFS is indicating after a cold front moves through, the 5400 line dips pretty far south toward our area.

September 25th GFS model

It's pretty far down the line, but just something to think about. It'll be interesting to look back on this and see how close the GFS really was.

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About Buckey2745

I'm a 31 year old weather enthusiast from Central Ohio. Certified SKYWARN storm spotter.

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