I'm a 31 year old weather enthusiast from Central Ohio. Certified SKYWARN storm spotter.
By: Buckey2745, 8:20 PM GMT on September 25, 2013
It's early in the season, but we're seeing our first hint in the GFS of snow for the season. In an unusually early arctic blast, the GFS forecasts... gasp... lake effect snow? The kind of wrap around we see with mid season storms:
Early guesses say the snow stays to our east here in the Columbus area, as the fetch would most likely run from a Cleveland to Pittsburgh line. But still, there's a little excitement at the potential of one of the earliest snows in Columbus' history.
On top of that the GFS calls for a reinforcing shot of cold air about a week later, for what would probably officially usher in colder weather on a permanent basis.
I'll update in the coming days with what the models are doing.
UPDATE: September 26
The latest runs take the lake effect snow out of play, but it's still way too early to rule anything out. Considering we may hit 80 this Saturday, it would be an incredible 7 day swing to see snow the following weekend, but stranger things have happened.
I asked the NWS in Wilmington this morning to confirm our earliest snowfall here in Columbus:
@ericijosephson Earliest measurable #snow at #CMH was 10/19/1989 (0.4"). Average first measurable snow is Nov 20th. Period used: 1931-2012— NWS Wilmington OH (@NWSILN) September 26, 2013
Updated: 1:39 PM GMT on September 26, 2013
By: Buckey2745, 3:39 PM GMT on September 13, 2013
September and October are the heart of meteorological Fall here in Central Ohio, a time when weather can be on either extreme: summer or winter. If you remember last year we had our first trace of snow at the end of October with Hurricane Sandy. But we also had two days in the early part of September with temps in 90's.
September is transition, and that's being felt big time here in Central Ohio today.
Our forecasted high of 63° is almost 30 degrees
cooler than Tuesdays high of 92.5°. Is it possible we have seen our last 90° day of the year?
In fact I am going on record of saying we have seen our last 85° day of the year, too.
What we should expect:
Yesterday a cold front passed through the area bringing us our first significant rainfall in a couple weeks. That cold front has ushered in much cooler weather, and the high pressure settling in over the northern plains is keeping us in a northerly flow, so cool temps will be the rule, not the exception, for the next few days.
We'll see this happen a few more times over the next month or two, with temps dropping a little lower each time. In between, ridging will begin to build back in a little slower with a gradual warm up before the next front.
In a pattern like this severe weather is very possible. A couple of severe storms popped up on Wednesday out ahead of this cool air mass, and it could continue to happen until our area cools down enough.
One such scenario could play out near the end of the month with a decent warm up forecasted and a mid-continent low, more reminiscent of an early spring storm, driving toward the Ohio Valley:
Until then, lets enjoy this nice shot of Fall while we can.
UPDATE: September 14th
Last night's low temp of 42.2° was the coldest we have been since May 26th when the low reached 39.9°!
Updated: 12:43 PM GMT on September 14, 2013