Ph.D. Student - Earth System Science (UC Irvine), B.Sc. - Atmospheric Sciences (Cornell University)
By: Zachary Labe , 2:46 PM GMT on December 26, 2007
Well good morning and I hope everybody had a wonderful Christmas. Anyway last night a few snow showers moved into my region and I got a surprise coating of snow and when I look at radar it shows more snow moving into my area soon. This is all from a coastal low. This coastal low may pull a few surprises. It seems to be closer to the coast than the models thought it would be for this time. My temperature at my north of Harrisburg is 33degrees as of 1040am. This temperature is much colder than any weather station predicted. But I have noticed that the deformation band of snow headed my way is being ripped apart, probably by the high pressure. Still though it will be interesting to watch what will happen with this storm. I think some areas in MA, NH, and VT will get several inches of snow. I do not think any accumulation will occur here in PA from this storm. Also thursday and short wave moves into PA, probably and the New York border. This might cause a coating to two inches of snow in some higher elevations of Pennsylvania. About above 1700ft is where most of the accumulating snow will be. Here in southern PA, I expect little if anything from this week storm too.
I will have more on this storm this afternoon.
Also for this December 31st storm, the GFS really wants to deliver a coastal storm with many areas getting snow, even as far south as the Delaware Valley. If this would happen many areas would see moderate accumulations of snow.
Check out the 06z GFS for the 31st...
Then for the January storm. Many questions still remain with this, but one thing is for sure and arctic outbreak will be headed in for next week. Though it will be shortlived, and then most of the USA goes above average in temperature for a time. I check many models and do not see a storm on any of the models for the first week in January, but I may have missed something. Correct me if I am wrong.
***Update as of 1130am...
Well the 12z gfs is out for the 31st and it shows not a coastal low, but it shows another low heading up through Ohio spreading warm air northward, so in this case there would be little snow. Also for today's coastal storm it shows the storm farthur west than previous models. This will be something to watch. Here is the 12z gfs model map for the 31st...
***Update as of 330pm...
Well interesting, very interesting the coastal storm in much farthur inland than any of the models predicted, temperatures are about 10degrees colder than any weather service predicted, and the slug of precipitation is as far west as Martinsburg, West Virginia and the precipitation does not seem to be moving east. The radar basically shows the precip. moving very slowly to the north with it all most being light. Here north of Harrisburg it is 36degrees and lightly raining. I think it will be interesting in the next few hours to see what happens with this storm. Once the sun sets temperatures will probably drop 2-4degrees by evening and that will be close enough for maybe some areas to see snow. We will have to wait and see. It will be interesting to see how long precipitation hangs out in the far west. I will issue my forecast regional for tonight for Pennsylvania around 500pm.
I should have much more on these storms sometime later today...
"Short Term Outlook"
Regional forecast for tonight...
Eastern- (Allentown, Southern Poconos)-
Light rain. Low 32.
South Central (Harrisburg, York, Lancaster)(my home)-
Light rain ending. Remaining cloudy. Low 31.
Light rain all night. .25inch of rain. Low 34.
Central- (State College)-
Cloudy. Flurries and a few snow showers after midnight. No snow accumulation. Low 26.
Northern- (Bradford, Williamsport, Erie)-
Cloudy then light snow after 2am. (coating to one inch of snow accumulation) Low 27.
Cloudy with late night flurries. Low 27.
Cloudy. Late night flurries. Low 25.
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