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March 25 Northeast Winter Storm...

By: Zachary Labe , 9:19 PM GMT on March 23, 2013

"Current Northeast Surface Station Plots"


"Current Surface Map and Weekly History of Jet Stream Position"


"Regional Radar"


"Regional Satellite"


"Regional Advisories"


"Soil Moisture Anomalies and 5-day Precipitation Amounts from Hydro Prediction Center"


"Seven Day Departure from Normal Precipitation"


"Forecast Max Temperatures"


"Forecast Min Temperature"


"Forecast Weather at 2pm"


"Severe Weather Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"


"Current Storm Reports"


"Fire Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"

(All maps courtesy of NOAA and Penn State Meteo.)

"Forecast Model Links"
-NAM model 12z...Link
-GFS model 12z...Link
-NMM model 12z...Link
-SREF model 9z...Link

"Severe Weather Links"
-Atmospheric Soundings Skewt T charts...Link
-SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pages...Link
-Public Spotter Reports for State College NWS...Link
-Severe Weather Model Forecast indices...Link
-Severe Weather Parameter Definitions...Link

"Flooding Links"
-Automated Pennsylvania Rainfall Recording Stations...Link
-Flash Flooding Guidance...Link
-HPC Forecasts for Excessive Rainfall...Link
-Hydrology Predictions for Lakes, Rivers, and Streams...Link

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

Follow my 24hr forecasts on Twitter... Link and Facebook... Link.

"10mi northeast of Harrisburg 2012-2013 Winter Statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Monthly Total (October)- 0.0"
Monthly Total (November)- 0.8"
Monthly Total (December)- 9.5"
Monthly Total (January)- 5.8"
Monthly Total (February)- 2.8"
Monthly Total (March)- 4.1"
Seasonal Total- 23.2"
Winter Weather Advisories- 7
Winter Storm Warnings- 0
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Watches- 0

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 32.1F
Lowest Low Temperature- 18.2F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
First Trace of Snow - November 24 - Lake Effect Snow Showers
First Measurable Snow - November 27 - 0.8" - Overrunning event
Enhanced Clipper - December 24 - 2.1" - Christmas Eve Snow!
Miller B - December 26 - 3.3" - 0.15" of freezing rain also
Miller B - December 29 - 4.1" - Moderate all snow event
SWFE - January 15-16 - 1.0" - Snow/sleet/freezing rain/rain
Arctic Cold Front - January 21 - 0.5" - fluffy snow
Weak southern disturbance - January 25 - 3.3" - snow ratios above 20:1
Great Lakes Cutter - January 28 - 1.0" - snow/sleet/freezing rain/rain
Alberta Clipper - February 2 - 1.0" - very light snow
Weak SWFE- February 19 - 1.0" of snow
WAA Snow - March 18 - 3.3" of snow


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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161. vis0
2:31 AM GMT on March 26, 2013
Thank you Zachary Labe for the great maps & info.

First i'm in the Global Climate Schizo party, not Global Warming Party.
GCS is worse, but doesn't sound as bad, either way pollution/pollutants have to be lowered.
GW when it was being explained in the 1980s (went to NYiT (2yrs BS) and John Jays (requested by a prof. to take 1 yr for free, he thought i had a "deep" mind, whatever that is...do luv deep dish foods ;-)).
That Prof. stated that GW will cause more storms or stronger storms, BUT storms would not deviate from the normal movement patterns. In fact another professor stated if storms are affected by global warming storms would stick to the "normal (w-e} jet stream steering, but move in their forward motions at a faster pace be it continuously or abruptly.
We've seen that, but pay close attention as to the last ~3 yrs (2010-present...) storms are moving erratically specially under the area where i state the ml-d has influence over the LOWs/Fronts, why dynamic cooling occurs more often, to the point that over the last 3 yrs. forecasts expecting fronts to die off as they more often do as they reach the NYC "coast" as the fronts go the downside of the Appalachians, yet we see the opposite. why? i state its the ml-d's influence. If one has the patience to read things that are not yet in books then trying reading my blog were i leave clues as how the ml-d causes an opposite "friction" affect (thus storms within the ml-d's AOI seem to want to form an "eye" particularly as to elevating land/mountains or near to them.,peace
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
160. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
8:17 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
Blizzard92 has created a new entry.
159. Pcroton
7:39 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
From Nebraska to nearly the Azores... that's one big system....

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
158. Pcroton
7:33 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
Nice...

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
157. Pcroton
7:23 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
Quoting johnbluedog69:
Still snowing at a very good rate in Seaford De.Not accumulating much but it sure is coming down.


Snowing heavy here again in Tinton Falls, and back down to 34 after getting up to 36 in the lull.

Regardless I think we've seen the writing on the wall that no accumulation will occur...as we will probably end the heavy precip before the sun sets.

Can we blame the clock change? LOL

Seems the warm solution followers had it right all along..even if it did get colder than they expected.

Although some places to our south and west might beg to differ as I've heard some of 4-6" when expecting rain or wet snow slush.



Out of five storms of this general nature this season, two were able to sustain the dynamic cooling and turn into what I like to call runaways.. and just get cold enough where they keep reinforcing.

There were two others where the upper level dynamics came in, were overhead for some time and dropped snow and gave the look, and then passed right on by and warmed. The DC staller is the poster child.

Then there's this one where the dynamics were there in the form of upper level cold but the lifting slid off the coast and set up just offshore. 50 miles further inland I will field a guess that we get better cooling and we runaway and actually accumulate a good deal of what fell.

Not the case today...and unlikely to happen suddenly this evening. Maybe there's one last curveball left in it as it pivots out for the coastal NJ counties...but inconsequential at this point.



Bring on Spring? NAO says NO. Quite negative through April 10th? GFS shows first week of April is active..with rain...which we don't need. This was our last shot at a snow storm. Maybe some strange once every couple of years April flurries or snow showers await us.





Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
156. wxgeek723
7:17 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
Not sure where you're getting your numbers from P. I had maybe an inch of slush earlier today before a rain shower around lunch time eroded much of it. Back to snowing, but it doesn't look that will make a difference anymore.

I call dud. :(

Time to close the chapter on this painful winter. I'm ready for some squall lines.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
155. johnbluedog69
6:35 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
Still snowing at a very good rate in Seaford De.Not accumulating much but it sure is coming down.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
154. Pcroton
6:21 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
Looks like radar just took a dump in central NJ. Damn.

Still some nice northward progressing echoes out in the Atlantic but at this point...who can guess if they'd actually make it in...or if a line has been drawn at the Monmouth-Ocean county border.




And for one last attempt at optimisim:



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
153. Pcroton
6:04 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
Quoting NJTom:
Well, here's something you don't see every day. On the 1:00 pm map, temps in North Jersey over 40 degrees; temps in South Jersey just above freezing!



Yep. That's dynamic cooling for ya.

So close but yet so far...




Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
152. Pcroton
6:01 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
I guess if you're going to go down with the ship, it's a noble thing to do, and it's the last storm....from unwilling to advertise the chance of snow...to jumping head first...then not giving up.





SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...
CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...
HAMMONTON...WHARTON STATE FOREST
116 PM EDT MON MAR 25 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY... EXCLUDING CAPE MAY COUNTY
AND EXCLUDING THE COMMUNITIES ALONG THE COASTS OF ATLANTIC
COUNTY AND OCEAN COUNTY.

* HAZARD TYPE...SNOW.

* STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES ON GRASSY
SURFACES...LESS ON PAVEMENT.

* DETAILS...SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX...WILL AT TIMES CHANGE TO
PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
POSSIBLY BACK TO RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY.

* IMPACTS...SLUSHY SNOW MAY AT TIMES ACCUMULATE ON UNTREATED
SURFACES BUT IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
151. NJTom
6:01 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
With link this time http://climate.rutgers.edu/stateclim/
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
150. NJTom
6:00 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
Well, here's something you don't see every day. On the 1:00 pm map, temps in North Jersey over 40 degrees; temps in South Jersey just above freezing!

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
149. Pcroton
5:55 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
Mount Holly won't give up yet...and they DID edit this map but an hour ago to add 4-6 back in PA there.

TWC has 3" for coastal NJ in anticipation of the potential wrapup. Taunton is bold? NYC gave up.





Each time I think we're about to stop or go over to rain because of a lull...it starts back up again. Moderate snow again.

No chance to accumulate further at this rate though. At one point we were close to a half of slushy inch.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
148. pittsburghnurse
5:49 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
Walkways just beginning to get slushy. Still have light snow falling just after lunch. More like a mix. But this morning's snow wasn't slushy at all.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
147. Pcroton
5:48 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
Quoting 1900hurricane:
What this storm is really missing is a banana high to pump cold air in at the low levels. Nothing over New England and Canada is even remotely close to a cold air source. The only thing this storm has to rely on is its own top-down cooling, which I suspect will end up failing this afternoon.



Yep. It's been a problem with many storms in 2013 for this region.

Just an awful setup that relies on perfect and persistent vertical stacking....and in each case we only get it for a few hours.

Radar does look rejuvenated and nice in southern NJ again...so we'll see. If it's gunna make a push this is it. If this one fails or wanes again it's done.


At any rate it's been an insanely impressive storm from Colorado to the coast... Late March.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
146. Pcroton
5:46 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
Radar filling in now and strengthening throughout south jersey throwing new stronger bands further north towards central jersey now.

If it's gunna surprise, then this is the start of that surprising as we head through the afternoon.

You can see the surface center too if you look close at certain radars...and it looks to be coming due north at the moment - much how the NAM modeled it (and then has it pulling eastward).

Disappointing thus far but there's still time. I wouldn't fault anyone for having zero confidence in it however!

Plus, it's really been reduced to a central-southern nj-philly triange of potential - again much how the NAM had it's snowfall bullseyes painted. (just amounts way too high, talking presentation here).



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
145. 1900hurricane
5:43 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
What this storm is really missing is a banana high to pump cold air in at the low levels. Nothing over New England and Canada is even remotely close to a cold air source. The only thing this storm has to rely on is its own top-down cooling, which I suspect will end up failing this afternoon.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
144. Pcroton
5:33 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
Temp is 34F. The snow had tapered to very light, but the last 30 mins it is coming down heavier like earlier this morning. The roads are just wet now. Even where the sidewalks were covered they are becoming slushy. Probably the sun.

It will be interesting to see if the Low off the coast bombs into PA


Prayers sent. Some felt that's when the "surprises" would come.

We have nothing else left to ride at this point...

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
143. Pcroton
5:32 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
Quoting NEwxguy:
P,it really has been a crazy year,for models and forecasters,they earned their pay this year,but then again with so many mistakes this year,maybe they didn't earn their pay.But I'll give them a pass this year,it has been one of the more difficult years I've seen a long time.


They could have done better with a few moments...that's for sure. A couple of too quick to jump...and a couple of too late to jump situations.

It would seem at best we can say it's been a tricky atmospheric setup most of the winter with the phases and trying to get the two streams to link up and time properly.

I would expect models to do better picking that up - and also forecasters to do better in seeing the failures coming.

They didn't. Too much model watching? I really believe so. Watching poorly performing models at that. So it's a triple hit!


Tricky atmospheric setups.
Poorly coded models.
Forecasting mode of operations failures.



Soon I'll get to complain about the SPC. :-D

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
142. Pcroton
5:29 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
#138 and with a lull in the precip surface heating is increasing. Back up to 35F. Coating of snow is melting off.

It has stayed as snow. Flurries to occasional moderate in wind gusts.

I know some discussions were about this occurring as the coastal low took over...and some felt any snow would come this evening when the low wrapped up and new banding developed and spread out from the low (while others felt the best shot was the morning hours).

As has been the case with several systems this year it's all about potential and waiting to see if it is realized.

Doesn't look to good at the moment. Either way it appears more and more any surprise will not be coming and if it does will be confined to southern NJ interior coastal counties.

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141. TheRasberryPatch
4:52 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
Temp is 34F. The snow had tapered to very light, but the last 30 mins it is coming down heavier like earlier this morning. The roads are just wet now. Even where the sidewalks were covered they are becoming slushy. Probably the sun.

It will be interesting to see if the Low off the coast bombs into PA
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140. johnbluedog69
4:48 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
Still on and off snow in Seaford De.Temp 34.Seems quite calm as far as winds go.I would have thought with a developing low off the coast we would have more gusty winds but it is calm for the most part.Snow is falling almost straight down.Pressure is down to 29.44
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139. NEwxguy
4:36 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
P,it really has been a crazy year,for models and forecasters,they earned their pay this year,but then again with so many mistakes this year,maybe they didn't earn their pay.But I'll give them a pass this year,it has been one of the more difficult years I've seen a long time.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
138. 1900hurricane
4:31 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
I probably should have clarified surface temps to boundary layer temps as well as thickness. Right now for the most part the boundary layer is above freezing but is too shallow kill the snow before it hits the ground. Still though, the warm boundary layer probably means that there is partial melting upon surface contact, which translates to more poor snow to liquid ratios and surface melting.

Still though, with extremely steep boundary layer lapse rates (the sounding I posted above has lapse rates exceeding the dry adiabat!), wherever the heavier precip sets up should dynamically cool the boundary layer to where the last few hundred meters of atmosphere is in line with the dry adiabatic lapse rate, allowing the snow to at least make it to the surface. Below is another RAP sounding, but this one is a little to the SW of my first one where heavier precip was falling.



Notice especially that from 950 mb or so to the surface the lapse rates aren't bonkers steep like the last one, but rather follows the dry adiabat down. This is due to the dynamic cooling resulting from heavier precip.

However, as the day goes on and the boundary layer warms up, dynamic cooling is going to become less and less effective. As dynamic cooling takes place, the surface layer is going to convectively rise until it reaches the top of the boundary layer, effectively warming the rest of the boundary layer. As long as surface heating is occurring, this convective process in the boundary layer will continue to occur, with or without dynamic cooling.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
137. Pcroton
4:12 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
Thanks for the posts and analysis 1900!

But did you mean to say surface temps are NOT the decider in PType?

I hope you did. :)

====


Snowing moderately to sometimes heavy still. When we lulled I was waiting to see if we would warm and see mix again. We didn't.

It does appear we stopped at 33F though and I notice a couple of 32's in south Jersey went to 33s. So the sun is now in play.

Roads wet, grass covered, and on blacktop you see the flakes last a little longer before melting now.


Overall I'd say the 2-4" on grass with wet roads guess of a day or so ago will ultimately play out.

We never know if the surprise comes later this afternoon or not - it's borderline and we all know what can happen if a storm really amps up for a few hours. If the precip shield holds on and we hit evening with the sun setting maybe we see something special. Difficult to tell.

For the most part it seems forecasts have been reasonable, even if they took more time that usual to migrate to the idea of snow fall (they just hung on way too long to the GFS warmth solutions in my opinion while entirely discounting the NAM which invariably became weighted in the most recent forecasting beginning late yesterday), and things look to generally verify.

As far as tricky storm go they are doing much better with this one over the DC mess...but with that one nobody ever saw the surface feature staying put for nearly a whole day as it did, while the upper level support motored in, looked good (snow) for a few hours, but just kept on chugging out to sea.

Last summer and fall were the tale of the low level jets. This winter has been the tale of complicated phases and late or missed phases.

Can't always get a straight forward season like 2010 was...where it was easy to see and say "blizzard coming" and it came. Many times.









Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
136. 1900hurricane
4:02 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
And just to cover all of my bases, here is an example a cold profile with a warm boundary layer in Skew-T form. RAP sounding is from central NJ.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
135. 1900hurricane
3:54 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
Quoting Pcroton:
Stepped out in it.. This is not wet snow. These are colder drier icy flakes. This is not Spring Snow at the moment...this is deep winter snow.

Upper levels must be cooling quickly and further than expected.


Upper levels are very cold with this system. Even with an above freezing boundary layer, every normally used critical thickness contour lies offshore.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
134. 1900hurricane
3:45 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
After poking around several products, it looks like this is another storm where surface temps are the main deciding factor of p type. The warm boundary layer isn't very deep, but with dry and wet bulb temps well above freezing for most areas, the snow that is falling looks to be already melting on either side of initial surface contact.



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
133. PattyNorthShoreLI
3:18 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
Over here we are at about 38 degrees and only saw a few flurries an hour or two ago. Pretty sharp dividing line eh?


Quoting originalLT:
Just cloudy here in Stamford CT. (dim sun visible at times). Baro. down to. 29.59". Temp. is up to 45F. After an overnight low of 34F. Winds have picked up some, now out of the NE at 10-15mph, with some higher gusts. Virga has been over me for several hours, but not one drop or flake.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
132. listenerVT
3:07 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
Sunshine and already 40F here in NW VT!

I've been offline a lot, as a friend is visiting from California and we've been seeing the sights.

Grateful for the new thread, Blizz! :-)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
131. originalLT
3:03 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
Just cloudy here in Stamford CT. (dim sun visible at times). Baro. down to. 29.59". Temp. is up to 45F. After an overnight low of 34F. Winds have picked up some, now out of the NE at 10-15mph, with some higher gusts. Virga has been over me for several hours, but not one drop or flake.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
130. Pcroton
3:00 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
Radar really evolving as the coastal low takes over.



You can see the banding setting up for NJ...and you can see the sharp cutoff along the NJ/NY border...AND you can see the sudden drop in precip in PA.

Let's hope that doesn't evolve over NJ as well...and the cutoff stays right along the NJ/PA border as we see it now.


Meanwhile, I'm pretty sure I just heard a rumble of thunder.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
129. Pcroton
2:41 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
Stepped out in it.. This is not wet snow. These are colder drier icy flakes. This is not Spring Snow at the moment...this is deep winter snow.

Upper levels must be cooling quickly and further than expected.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
128. Pcroton
2:38 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
Quoting bwi:
Nice band filling in from Frederick MD to Southern MD area -- coastal development.


I'm telling ya... hit or miss.. snow then bust.. overall bust.. or suprise hit. Whatever any of us are getting you got to marvel at this system.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
127. Pcroton
2:38 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
Garden bed getting coated... All turned over and ready to go when the weather cooporates! Might be a "3rd week in April" for the lettuce this year.


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
126. bwi
2:38 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
Nice band filling in from Frederick MD to Southern MD area -- coastal development.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
125. Pcroton
2:31 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
Coastal Low must really be taking over... My wind is north already. Flakes gone "colder temps" flakes if you will.


Mount Holly's take: Already 3" has fallen in spots.



.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH
POCKETS OF HEAVIER SNOW EMBEDDED WITHIN. SO FAR THIS MORNING,
WE`VE HAD 1-3 INCHES ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE THE
SNOW HAS FALLEN, WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE. SHORT
TERM MESOSCALE MODELS (HRRR AND RAP) CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
PRECIPITATION WEAKENING AND/OR DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN EDGES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE LOW OFF THE
COAST TIGHTENS UP AND PULLS THE PRECIP CLOSER TO THE COAST, AND
THIS TREND IS STARTING TO OCCUR TO OUR SOUTHWEST. ALSO, WE MAY
BEGIN TO MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES WHEN PRECIPITATION BECOMES LIGHT
ENOUGH ACROSS SOME OF THE AREA AS WELL, WHICH AGAIN IS ALREADY
OCCURRING. FOR THIS REASON, WE HAVE KEPT PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE TIME BEING AND KEEP
THE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES AS IS FOR NOW. WE LEAVE THE HIGHEST SNOW
AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT THE STRONGEST OMEGAS PUSH EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE ENTIRE EVENT SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY LATER THIS EVENING
ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
WRAPPING AROUND AND IMPACTING OUR EASTERN ZONES. BY THIS POINT AND
TIME THOUGH OUR WINDS WILL HAVE BACKED TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND
TEMPERATURES WILL NO LONGER BE IN QUESTION, TO ALLOW FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. A COATING TO A HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS. WE
SHOULD BE COMPLETELY DRYING OUT LATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR IS PUMPED
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW-30S TONIGHT.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
124. Pcroton
2:20 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
33F and moderate to heavy snow. This is no longer big wet flakes this is "real" snow if you will at the moment.

Grass and trees have a glaze/coating of slush. Raised beds are starting to turn white.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
123. Pcroton
2:13 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
NYC Updates....Nice read:


MOST DIFFICULT FORECAST TO START THE WEEK. 993 HPA LOW EAST OF
THE DELMARVA AS OF 12 UTC WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY.
HEAVY WET SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ HAS LOWERED TEMPS TO
FREEZING THERE.

LOCALLY...13 UTC TEMPS ARE NEAR 40 F WITH DEWS IN THE MID 20S. THIS
GIVES ME A WET BULB OF 34-35 F. PCPN IS HAVING A HARD TIME
MAKING NORTHWARD PROGRESS INTO THE DRY AIR.

TIME LAGGED RAPID REFRESH (RR) SUPPORTS HEAVIEST PCPN STAYING
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. SUBJECTIVELY...THIS TYPICALLY GETS
DISPLACED NW OF THE DEPICTED MODEL QPF. LATEST HRRR IS A BIT SOUTH
OF THE RR.

TEMPS ARE NEAR MAX AT THIS TIME AND WILL DROP TO WET BULB THIS
AFTN AS PCPN MOVES IN.

P-TYPE IS MAINLY WET SNOW...BUT WITH TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING...ACCUMULATION IS DIFFICULT UNLESS HEAVIER PCPN MAKES IT
FURTHER NORTH THAN FORECAST.

HAVE CANCELED THE SNOW ADVISORY WITH THE BELIEF THAT EVEN IF WE
WERE TO REACH 3 INCHES...LIMITED IMPACT IS EXPECTED DUE TO TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
122. Pcroton
2:00 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
Matlack: Surfaces are warm and it's melting on contact on all surfaces...so it's likely melting and dripping into the sensor.

We're now 33F and moderate to heavy snow. Big springtime flakes for sure.

Do we drop to 32 or well more importantly 31 and stick? If we do...does it cause the runaway that November's storm did where it dropped and never came back up?

I guess that is and has been the burning question for several days now - with one change - we were supposed to be at 38F right now and wondering.. Not at 33F and wondering.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
121. Matlack
1:56 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
Interesting - checked the home weather station and the pressure has been steady the past few hours but as with P the temps have dropped steadily from 38 to 35 with the onset of precip. Must be a mix or rain as rain gauge is recording .2" so far since 8:25am. Cloud cover is becoming broken here in WV very light snow falling, March sun is doing its thing on the hardscapes. Be safe all, shutting down for the day and no access to Internet for the rest of the day.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
120. Pcroton
1:48 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
Coastal taking over...




Steve of nynjpaweather has been pro-warm..and his twitter is going on with it...but each one of his tweets someone near a location he says is warm and raining...replies to him "snowing."

hehe.

----

S: A perfect example is PHL to ACY. PHL being reported as rain/34, ACY snow and 32. Why? Because the best lifting is over NJ coast. However, that lifting is pushing east, so does the precip go back to rain or stay as snow?

R: All snow in Lancaster and south. it's really pretty.

----

S: Reading, PA is being reported as rain/snow mix, was all snow.

R: It's all snow Steve and 31

----

READING SNOW 33
PHILADELPHIA LGT SNOW 34
NORTH PHILA SNOW 33
LANCASTER SNOW 32
WILMINGTON LGT SNOW 33
DOVER LGT SNOW 32
GEORGETOWN LGT SNOW 34
POMONA SNOW 32
MILLVILLE HVY SNOW 34
MOUNT HOLLY SNOW 33
TRENTON SNOW 34



...I mean, sometimes ya just gotta give in.



Don't get me wrong, I like Steve and his analysis, but it's pretty funny. The storm could still crap out but all indications thus far this morning go against that thinking.

Things evolve and we'll see how it goes. Right now we're all way colder than originally thought and things are just getting going.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
119. Pcroton
1:30 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
It's in the low 30s..well below upper 30s guidance for me at this time (40s if you go GFS)...so.....what to make of this:


TODAY
SNOW THIS MORNING...THEN SNOW AND RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.

TONIGHT
CLOUDY. SNOW AND RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO
4 INCHES. BREEZY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTH WINDS 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
90 PERCENT.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
118. Pcroton
1:21 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
Uhmmmm... we'r below guidance and dropping folks. 32s already widespread in NJ.


*static, rehosted image.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
117. Pcroton
1:14 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
Quoting goofyrider:
Rain with snow flakes. 38 F


Was that you that bought the winning powerball?

Immediate coastline is going to bust I would think.

34F and Moderate Snow at the moment. It keeps switching back and forth but each time it goes snow it stays snow a bit longer.

We're really close. And to think GFS asked for low 40s and then high 30s.. and NAM mid to high 30s... it would seem we are all falling below that guidance.

Another 2 degrees here and then what happens? It all sticks.

Surprises coming for someone. I'd be happy if it were me but am just as resigned we might stop just short.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
116. goofyrider
1:03 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
Rain with snow flakes. 38 F
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
115. PoetSirrah
1:01 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
33 here in Philly. Light snow. Close to an inch on the grass, nothing on the pavement. The coastal low is starting to fire up nicely though, can already see some banding developing. Storm seems to be moving quicker than anticipated.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
114. johnbluedog69
12:59 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
Since this started about 7:30 last night i haven't seen any rain out of this in Seaford De.It has been all snow,varying from light to moderate intensity.When the snow rate picks up it sticks everywhere,but when it slows down it melts on the roadway.Cant wait to see what happens later when this low winds up off the coast.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
113. TheRasberryPatch
12:57 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
I wonder if Walshy is getting any snow?

Still snowing and the slush on the roads is icing a bit. Temp is 32F
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
112. Matlack
12:53 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
Quoting Pcroton:


Sooooo no 20" bullseyes like the GFS and NAM were frequently showing with this storm for days?

Are you up in the mountains or in a valley? Any word on around the region...


No but I would not be surprised if to the northeast of me they got 5-8". The rainfall rates last night would have been equal to 20" of snow for sure. I was in a very warm sector of the storm yesterday afternoon it was in the mid 40's even at 1300'. Snow here has become steadier and heavier over the last hour. I'm at 2000' on Twin Falls mountain. The higher ridge lines are to the northeast of me. Not looking forward to driving off the mountain many hairpin turns.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
111. johnbluedog69
12:52 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
Still hanging around 32 or 33degrees and snowing moderately.Not sticking well to the paved surfaces,but an inch on the grass and cars.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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