Severe Weather Chances Thursday for the Northeast

By: Zachary Labe , 5:44 PM GMT on July 24, 2012

A warm front will lift northward across the northern Middle Atlantic reintroducing higher humidity and heat for Thursday into the weekend. Increasing shear values as an upper level wave moves through on Thursday will enhance the risk for significant severe weather chances across northern Pennsylvania up through central New York State. Scattered showers and thunderstorm chances will continue through the weekend over most areas.

"Afternoon Thoughts" (Updated 7/24)
As of early July the word 'derecho' was ranked 7th for trending words on twitter. Link. This is courtesy of post-storm from the June 2012 derecho across the Ohio Valley and Middle Atlantic causing one of the most widespread damaging wind tracks in recent memory. It affected millions across the eastern portions of the country. The explosion of popular social media has greatly influenced the way weather is related to the general public. Only just a few months ago, the majority of Americans would not have any idea the meaning of a derecho. Now the word is a commonplace in the internet language particularly for amateurs on weather forums. In fact the word is now often abused; for instance today's squall line advancing southeast over the Ohio Valley does not actually fit the word of derecho despite those definitions currently bouncing arounds on sites such as twitter today.

Credit must be given to The Weather Channel for sparking the general public's interest in weather and meteorology, but in the last decade many sources have directly improved acknowledgement for general weather conditions across the country. For the most part this has been for the better, but there has been an increase in ignorance in severe weather warnings for the general public. Many false alarms have allowed many to ignore other weather warnings such as severe thunderstorm warnings. Many people believe they are issued when any thunderstorm is threatening a region.

There are too many weather advisories/warnings being issued and the definitions are too complex to relay to the general public. This is causing general confusion and ignorance. The system needs to be reworked and this is not just an education problem... The problem exists in the original architect of the system.

"Regional Radar"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Regional Satellite"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Regional Advisories"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Forecast Discussion" (Updated 7/24)
A cold front on Tuesday will continue to dip south across the Middle Atlantic sparking a few broken lines of scattered showers and thunderstorms. 0-6km shear values around 30kts may enhance a small threat of damaging winds particularly towards the Washington, DC-Baltimore corridor. Winds will begin to turn to the north and northwest filtering in drier and cooler air. High pressure will take control on Wednesday for the best day of the week. Sunshine is expected region-wide with near normal temperatures. By Wednesday night a warm front will begin to lift north across Pennsylvania with increasing heat and humidity. Scattered thunderstorm development along the front may enhance convective probabilities for portions of western Maryland and western Pennsylvania overnight. A slight risk of severe weather is possible in those areas with the highest threat being damaging winds.

An upper level low over the Great Lakes will spark the development of a MCS that will advance east into New York before dawn on Thursday with heavy rain. Current NAM/SREF progs indicate QPF totals in excess of 0.5in. This complex will weaken as it advances east into New England by Thursday morning. Existing boundaries and the cold front trigger will initiate thunderstorm development later in the day across Pennsylvania and New York with possible severe weather development given the favorable right front entrance from the low level jet positioned directly over the region. Highest shear is a bit displaced to the north, but should be enough to give way to a widespread damaging wind threat as a potential squall line develops. H85s will rise above +20C on Thursday with highs reaching the upper 90s across southern areas in Maryland and the Washington DC area. Dew points in the lower 70s will increase heat indices to near heat advisory criteria values. PWATs near 2.0in will also enhance the threat of heavy rain especially across Pennsylvania. The highest threat for convective activity will be across northern Pennsylvania into south-central New York. To the north in New England will be an area of more stratiform rain showers, while areas in the south experience a strong warm mid level cap.

Recent GFS and ECMWF runs highlight the potential for a second MCS to move through on Friday across Pennsylvania with heavy rain and scattered thunderstorms, but for now this threat remains a bit more uncertain. Temperatures will begin to lower towards the weekend, but higher instability will enhance the risk for pulse thunderstorm development each day. Most areas will be dry and the weekend will not be a washout. High pressure will advance over the Northeast by early next week with cooler temperatures and lower humidity. Sunshine will prevail by Sunday and Monday.

"Current Surface Map and Weekly History of Jet Stream Position"

(Courtesy of Weather Underground)

"Fire Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Gardening Outlook" (Updated 7/24)
After an extensive dry period across much of the Northeast, a basin-wide rainfall gave relief to many areas nearing D0 or D1 drought conditions. Areas that received the most rainfall were across central and eastern Pennsylvania up through New England. Continued drought conditions exist across central New York state, western Pennsylvania, and parts of the Delmarva. These areas have received little precipitation this year after a nearly snowless winter. Main-stem waterways are running quite low in this region. Isolated may be on the way over the next seven days as several convective chances of precipitation will exist with isolated locations receiving 7-day QPF totals in excess of 2.0in while other areas receive little. Latest GFS/NAM runs indicate the potential for a MCS to move through New York state into New England with widespread heavy rain QPF totals. This may help the drought-stricken regions around the Finger Lakes. This complex will likely weaken as it moves east of the Hudson River. Elsewhere precipitation chances will remain less organized and more isolated in nature. Showers and thunderstorms can be expected Thursday through early next week.

Temperatures will average near normal for the next seven days with highs generally at 90F or slightly below depending on location. The combination of rain chances and cooler conditions will be beneficial for those late-summer gardens. Many farmers have been saved from poor seasons courtesy of the last widespread stratiform rain. Corn and soy bean crops were generally saved across much of the region.

My vegetable garden has had an excellent year. Currently my corn stalks are beginning to produce small ears and appear to be cross-pollinating very nicely. Pepper and tomato crops have been slow producers despite the hot weather. I believe my main problem was that I planted them too late in the season. I also am currently growing watermelons, eggplant, cucumber, zucchini, yellow beans, and the typical herbs (basil, cilantro, chives, oregano, parsley).

"Soil Moisture Anomalies and 5-day Precipitation Amounts from Hydro Prediction Center"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Severe Weather Outlook" (Updated 7/24)
Severe weather probabilities are beginning to increase for Thursday across parts of the Northeast. A warm front will begin to lift north across the region allowing warmer and more humid air to advance into southern New England. Meanwhile an intense upper level low will begin to rotate east across New York state. Current guidance including the latest 12z NAM highlights PWATs rising to near +2SD as far north as the Finger Lakes associated with a MCS that will move through the overnight hours on Wednesday. Given the unfavorable diurnal hours and slightly displaced dynamics at that time, it is likely severe weather chances will remain low with this complex. The track will likely be across New York state before weakening as it advances east into southern New England. Heavy rain will be the primary threat along with continuous lightning. Total QPF may approach 0.5-1.0in for those areas.

Thursday morning will feature lower CIN as an area of subsidence exists across New York and New England as the MCS advances off the coast. Widespread strato-cumulus will likely prevent any morning surface instability. As the low level jet begins to intensify, the warm sector will begin to destabilize once again. Existing boundaries left from the MCS and approaching trough will act as the trigger for afternoon thunderstorm development. 0-6km shear values near 40-55knots and SBCAPE in excess of 2,000j/kg will be the primary ingredients for a severe thunderstorm threat. Current HIRES guidance suggests the development of a squall line with a widespread damaging wind threat across Pennsylvania and New York. A SPC moderate risk of severe weather is possible across these areas. The primary inhibiting factors are the questionable stabilization after the passage of the MCS along with the extent of the cloud cover.

For the time being it appears like a widespread severe weather outbreak is possible Thursday afternoon and evening with the highest threat across northern Pennsylvania and southern New York. Stay tuned!

"Severe Weather Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Monthly Outlook" (August)
As El Nino conditions continue to develop based on the latest SST reports from the equatorial Pacific region, lingering La Nina-based weather patterns will continue to dominate across the contiguous United States. Despite a near record low NAO for much of the meteorological summer. This has allowed the higher heights to develop across the central United States where persistent above average temperatures and dry conditions will continue through much of August. Little to no pattern change is expected allowing drought conditions to worsen. The Northeast long range forecast shows some upper level troughs rotating through the region with northwesterly flows for 1-3 day periods. This cooler weather will most directly affect parts of New England, while the Middle Atlantic continues in a warmer regime.

Temperatures for the most part should average above normal for the month of August across the entire Northeast around (+)1F-(+)2F. Precipitation chances will be on the increase with normal to slightly above normal rain given the slightly more active northwesterly flow with chances of rain showers and thunderstorms. Given the convective nature of the precipitation, some areas will see localized D0-D1 drought conditions particularly in areas that are already dry such as central New York and portions of Delaware.

Guidance also continues to favor a relatively quiet tropics for the next few weeks with limited activity. Given the current position of the upper level ridge over the Midwest, a higher than normal probability exists for a tropical storm to near the eastern seaboard should one develop. This of course will enhance rainfall amounts for the month over the Northeast. None the less the general theme will be a warmer than normal pattern, but less hot than it has been with increasing rain chances. The worst heat waves of the summer are likely over for the Northeastern part of the nation.

"Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from Climate Prediction Center for next 30 days"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

Follow my 24hr forecasts on Twitter... Link and Facebook... Link.

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

"Linglestown, PA 2012 statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 9
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 10
Tornado Watches- 1
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 21

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 0
Flood Warnings- 0
Flash Flood Watch- 2
Flash Flood Warnings- 0
January precipitation- 2.82"
February precipitation- 1.90"
March precipitation- 1.41"
April precipitation- 1.74"
May precipitation- 7.47"
June precipitation- 3.30"
July precipitation- 5.29"
August precipitation- 0.00"
Yearly precipitation- 23.93"

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 9
Excessive Heat Watch- 1
Excessive Heat Warnings- 1
90F days- 22
100F days- 1
Highest Temperature- 102F on 7/7

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Not even one tenth of an inch for the day so far. Dry under the trees.

Aside from isolated regions getting some flooding out of the isolated slow moving cells... this is a joke.

There is nothing out there south of I78 to warrant an MD or a Severe TStorm watch let alone warnings.

If you want to put out a Rain threat MD or some flood warnings in isolated areas that would suffice.

This widespread damaging events they keep calling for make them look like complete idiots time and again.

Honestly...it is pathetic. All they do is cry wolf every damn day and if one branch falls within an entire state they feel vindicated to go ahead and cry wolf the next day.

Either their equipment is god awful or the software that renders the satellite information is god awful...or what benchmarks and guidelines have been set to call for a severe weather outbreak are way over done.... or these guys have no business forecasting the weather.

Not sure what it is, perhaps a combination of the whole thing, but when your failure rate is over 90% for an entire summer.... well, you suck. No sugar coating it.

/rant

---
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 134 Comments: 34115
looks like you are getting it goid LT
renewed thunder south here but just some more light rain
dont see much to make me think i get anything good
the lid is on super tight here
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 134 Comments: 34115
Here the sounds of the Seneca guns off to the SW
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3348
"P", it looks like the storms are still sinking SE and have hit Ossining and Chappaqua, and are heading towards me. I'll of course let you know what I get.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8012
I see what you are saying "P".Sorry to say.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8012
206. bwi
Very benign weather now in DC area. Sunny, winds close to calm. Hot but not outrageous.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1787
tough to say lt
seems the light echoes heading into manhattan from me down here could be eroding the line as it slowly works your way. seems to be remnant outflow boundaries from our monmouth cty convection that collapsed

some evidence of that in northern nj part of line hanging up with convection heading northward now as eastward progression halts
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 134 Comments: 34115
Hi "P", sorry your storm, "fizzeled". Looks like I might get hit with that line that is in the lower Hudson Valley, draped southwestward into NW NJ. Seems to want to move ESE towards your old stomping grounds and then on to me in Stamford. What do you think?
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8012
Quoting goofyrider:
1.5 in rain since 11 am. 95 %. RH. T. 75 F. Winds light from SE


yea SL was under repeated red cells for some time early on
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 134 Comments: 34115
Quoting Blizzard92:
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued.


tstorm warnings cancelled
cells now rapidly weakening
sun has come out
of course a watch is issued
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 134 Comments: 34115
1.5 in rain since 11 am. 95 %. RH. T. 75 F. Winds light from SE
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3348
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15245
gotta see what the trough out by trenton doeswith it all
that could be my best bet to get this stuff over me as it heads doen 195
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 134 Comments: 34115
llol
cant make it up
energy split
im getting nothing
redev nw will miss to north as it goes east
orig heading east out to sea to the south
pathetic
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 134 Comments: 34115
seems inevitable now as constant northern redevelopment is overtaking eastward drift
lots of good thunder to the south
periodic light rain as am on fluctuating north edge
that will change soon
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 134 Comments: 34115
Just back from a trip to Trenton. Cloud tops were growing all the way to west. Rain started about Farmingdale. Nasty at the shore. Local flooding.
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3348
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1630
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT SAT JUL 28 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN PA...NRN/ERN VA...SWRN NEW
ENGLAND...DE...SERN NY...DC..NJ...MD EXCEPT PANHANDLE.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 281626Z - 281830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTION FCST TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY IN COVERAGE
ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH MID-AFTN. MOST INTENSE CELLS WILL
PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS AND OCNL HAIL. SEVERAL MULTICELLULAR
CLUSTERS/BANDS WITH AGGREGATE COLD POOLS ALSO ARE
POSSIBLE...ENHANCING WIND-DAMAGE POTENTIAL ON MESO-BETA SCALE.

DISCUSSION...16Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED WAVY/QUASISTATIONARY FRONT
FROM OFFSHORE LONG ISLAND WWD THROUGH WEAK LOW JUST OFF NRN NJ
SHORE...THEN GENERALLY WWD OVER SRN PA AND SWWD FROM SWRN PA OVER OH
VALLEY. SFC TROUGHS EXTENDED NWD FROM LOW NEAR HUDSON VALLEY AND
SWWD FROM NRN NJ ACROSS CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE BAY TO S-CENTRAL VA AND
WEAK LOW OVER WRN NC. EACH OF THOSE MAY FOCUS CONVECTIVE THREAT.
RR MODEL REASONABLY INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR LOW TO FORM ALONG SRN
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/NRN VA...AS MID-UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION APCHS.
THIS WOULD FURTHER ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/LIFT IN THAT
AREA...AS WILL SEA-BREEZE AND BAY-BREEZE BOUNDARIES NEAR COASTLINES.

AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE FAVORABLE
DESTABILIZATION...WITH STG SFC DIABATIC HEATING WELL UNDERWAY AND
CINH NEARLY GONE OVER MOST OF AREA. INSOLATION AND PRESENCE OF RICH
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...EVIDENT IN SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 70S F
AND 1.5-1.75 INCH GPS PW READINGS...WILL OFFSET WEAK LAPSE RATES
ALOFT ENOUGH TO YIELD MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG. VIS IMAGERY
ACCORDINGLY SHOWS DEEP CU...TCU AND CB IN PATCHES FROM SRN PA AND NJ
SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN MD AND ALSO DELMARVA PENINSULA...ON BOTH
SIDES OF CHESAPEAKE BAY AND INVOF TROUGH. SWLY EFFECTIVE SHEAR
VECTORS WITH 30-40 KT MAGNITUDES WILL AID IN MULTICELL
ORGANIZATION...AND TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15245
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
313 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR COUDERSPORT IN POTTER COUNTY
PENNSYLVANIA...
LOCATION...COUDERSPORT IN POTTER COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA
DATE...7/26/2012
ESTIMATED TIME...1515 EDT
MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF0
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...80 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...150 YARDS
PATH LENGTH...400 YARDS
BEGINNING LAT/LON...41.7911N / 78.0112W
ENDING LAT/LON...41.7917N / 78.0044W
* FATALITIES...0
* INJURIES...0

* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN NWS
STORM DATA.

...SUMMARY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS CONFIRMED A
TORNADO NEAR COUDERSPORT IN POTTER COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA ON 7/26/2012.

A TORNADO OCCURRED NORTHEAST OF COUDERSPORT PA ON JULY 26 2012 IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THE PATH OF THE
EF0 TORNADO WAS APPROXIMATELY 150 YARDS WIDE AND ONE QUARTER MILE
LONG. DAMAGE WAS LIMITED TO TREES WITH NO DAMAGE TO HOUSES.
ADDITIONAL DAMAGE...NOT RELATED TO THE TORNADO...WAS REPORTED
COUNTY-WIDE IN THE OVERALL PATH OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
85 F. 76% RH. Clouds building up with some dark gray at bottoms. Not Good for beach day. Winds out of the SSE
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3348
0.36in of rain here last night
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15245
That Long Island situation is really something. I can't remember when I've seen storms form over LI like that and move so slowly ENE, the very direction that LI goes.Will be interesting to hear the final rain toals from out there, if I hear them I will tell you guys here. I guess "P" will do the same if he hears the totals.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8012
Careful what you wish for P:)
Member Since: October 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 438
Ah so it's going to be this kind of day...where if you are going to get hit the cells must for just on your doorstep and then move over you. One look at Long Island this morning confirms that type of flow. They are torrential rain producers and moving agonizingly slow.

I see some hint to my SW that a second similar line of weather is attempting to form.

It is very overcast here and has been darkening from SW to NE overhead. Whether or not it decides to continue to intensify and erupt like the Long Island line has....well....who can say.

This is what we need though. I know many say they feel torrential downpours just wash off and away and to some degree they are correct....but why would you wish to have nothing instead? That I cannot fathom.

Bring on the gully washers...the toad stranglers...the goose drownder... the cats and dogs...and everything else you can think of. Hell, a kitchen sink or two (preferably full) would be welcome as well.

Let's go already, mother nature, let's go.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 134 Comments: 34115
Not a thing up here in TF, goofy.

Well....it is by far the most disgusting morning of the summer.

Overcast...low visibility due to poor air quality and the highest humidity I have seen in some time.

78F which is also our overnight low if you can believe it.

Nice area of thundershowers to our east well off the coast. I see some nice areas in western NY and PA.

We of course remain dry.... forecast is 50% chance of heavy rain-frequent lightning-gusty winds thunderstorms this afternoon.

The juice is here for certain. Looks like last chance for several days so for our sake we better get it and get it good. This is getting ridiculous.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 134 Comments: 34115
Little squall headed our way. Sent a little warning ahead in time to clear the deck cushions and close the windows. Moving at 7 kts and not a lot of pun h. Still raindrops falling by the time I'd finished. Set the rain Gage's. Nite
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3348
I got about 0.20" of rain from that shower

Pcroton - I can so relate to body surfing. I love a good ride in the ocean. you can't find anything like it really. at least in my lifetime living along the east coast USA
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6338
Quoting originalLT:
Blizz, looks on radar that the bulk of the cell is passing just to your South. -- But I see you are still getting some good down pours.

Yep, most of the lightning show is to my south, but still has been a nice moderate to heavy rain here for the last 30-45 minutes. A good rain for the gardens.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15245
Blizz, looks on radar that the bulk of the cell is passing just to your South. -- But I see you are still getting some good down pours.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8012
Getting some good downpours from this very interesting cell that developed right along Blue Mountain. Clearest example of the effects of terrain on pulse thunderstorms...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15245
With a clear lack of development and a very stable looking sky (septemberish I might add very cool!) they have dropped the chance of storms for us in central NJ to slight 20%.

As the discussion showed there has been NE Penn development and you can see some cumulus trying in NW NJ and even S NJ. Yet you can just see them struggling.

Well, on to tomorrow, where I have 50% once again, and all the heavy wording to boot.

I'm running out of forecasters and forecasting offices to get frustrated with. LOL

Honestly, for my area, if you said even 10% of the forecasted events occured, and if even 10% of those lived up to anywhere near the forecasted intensity, I could very easily and confidently call you a liar.

That's how bad it's been for us here in Central NJ.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 134 Comments: 34115
TRP unsure what the water temp was officially but it was certainly 75-77 IMO and I am a pretty good judge of that given how often I like to swim in the ocean.


The waves were just perfect until the tide began to fill in and the wind began to close out the waves. For about 2 hours there they were perfect sharp risers on the bar and you were just in waist deep able to launch with them. Got many 20 yard rides out of it.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 134 Comments: 34115
That depends what qualifies as a severe wind event.

They listed 55mph, Sandy Hook NJ, as a severe wind event.

It's not. At least not that I once knew was required. 58mph+?

So....I wouldn't put much into that. They also seem to list whatever anyone submits.

Now, if a branch comes down, in an unknown wind gust event, it's listed as a legitiment severe weather wind report? Without verification?

Since there is no way to go out and verify every single event I think personally they have given up. You also can't rule out, unfortunately, those who have something to gain these days by allowing unverified reports to just slip right into the archives.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 134 Comments: 34115
There were over 400 wind damage reports yesterday...mostly clustered in the moderate risk area. It looks like the SPCs 45% chance of wind damage within 25 miles of a point verified well.



Not surprisingly an EF1 tornado was confirmed in Elmira today.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
Quoting Pcroton:
Yeah with ads like I say I'm not using a system I can freely put software or blockers on. So I am stuck there for the time being...but shame on sites that don't check up on their ads frequently and think it through.
------

Anywho...just got back from Manasquan had a great three hours of beach time in. Perfect body surfing waves, temps, etc.

Building clouds to the north while sun was still out down there.... yielded cloudy skies as I got back to TF.

Hopefully we see some good showers this afternoon.


What is the water temperature? I love body surfing, especially when the waves don't crash you on the beach
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6338
Yeah with ads like I say I'm not using a system I can freely put software or blockers on. So I am stuck there for the time being...but shame on sites that don't check up on their ads frequently and think it through.
------

Anywho...just got back from Manasquan had a great three hours of beach time in. Perfect body surfing waves, temps, etc.

Building clouds to the north while sun was still out down there.... yielded cloudy skies as I got back to TF.

Hopefully we see some good showers this afternoon.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 134 Comments: 34115
0.56in of rain here for my total. I do not see adds either as I am a paying member and I use the google chrome extension 'ad block plus' so no problems here on my end.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15245
175. bwi
Nice bit on the LWX discussion this morning. Looking forward to a pleasant week next week and maybe beyond. And not so worried about rain after the good soaking we got in my immediate area last week.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ULTRA HIGH TEMPS WL BE HELD AT BAY DURG THE XTND PD. THIS IS
FREQUENTLY THE TIME OF YR WHEN THE "FOUR CORNERS HIGH" DVLPS OVR THE
SWRN U.S. ...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE THE CASE IN ALL OF THE XTND
MDLS. BECAUSE OF THIS THE ERN U.S. WL BE UNDER A SLT UPPER TROF.
THIS WL KEEP THE REALLY HOT WX...AND THE 70+ DWPTS...AT BAY FOR
THE FINAL DAYS OF JUL AND THE BEGINNING OF AUG. IN THE MID
ATLC...XPCT MOST OF THE XTND PD TO HV HIGH TEMPS IN THE MU80S.
LOWS RANGING FM THE L70S IN THE CITIES TO THE U50S IN THE
HIGHLANDS...BUT THE MAJORITY OF WL HV LOWS IN THE M60S.

THERE ISN`T MUCH TO HANG ONTO REGARDING POP CHCS. W/ ERN TROF IT
IS PSBL THAT A BNDRY COULD DVLP SOMETIME NEXT WK AND SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR TSTM DVLPMNT...OTHERWISE SCT AFTN TSTMS IS THE BEST CHC
FOR RAFL.

ONE DAY CLOSER TO THE END OF THE MONTH...THIS RMNS THE WARMEST JUL
(AVG TEMP) IN DC ON RECORD. IT`S AMAZING THAT #2 AND 3 ARE THE PRVS
TWO YRS...EVEN THO RECORDS GO BACK TO 1871. BWI - THIS JUL IS IN
THE #2 SLOT...0.2 DEGS BEHIND 2010. THIS JUL IS ALSO #1 FOR
IAD...0.5 DEG AHD OF LAST YR.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1787
My total rain for yesterday was 0.69" I hope it soaked in a bit.

Pcroton - I am not getting the ads you are getting, but I am also a paid subscriber and shouldn't be seeing ads.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6338
Total rain for the storm was 0.45 in. Our winds topped around 33 mph. Rip tide warning didn't stop the swimmers. Green flags all around. Skies clouding up already.
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3348
Ah one last post...becuase the Mt Holly discussion is very well done this morning.

---

CHECKED THE NSSL WRF...NCEP NMM/ARW AND SPC WRF AND OF ALL THE
MODELS...LOOKS TO ME LIKE A BLEND OF SPC WRF AND NCEP NMM ARE
DECENT. FIRST A DECENT CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVES BY SANDY HOOK MID
OR LATE AFTN. THEN THE MLCAPE IN THE SOUTH ACTIVATES FROM NEAR PHL
S AND E WITH THE DE AND NJ COASTS PROBABLY RCVG PRETTY DECENT
STORMS IN THE 22Z-03Z TIME FRAME.

THE NEW 06Z/27 GFS LOOKS GOOD TO ME FOR TEMPS AND CONVECTION
OUTBREAKS N AND S LATE TODAY.

MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN TODAY WITH ANY MORNING SHOWERS FEW IF ANY
BUT AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE UP IN NE PA AND NW NJ AS
ALSO DELMARVA TO S NJ .. BOTH DURING MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. BEST
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS IN THE NORTH WHILE LARGER ML
CAPE IS FROM S NJ THRU DELMARVA. SUSPECT WE`LL BE ISSUING SPS`S
FOR LIGHTNING STRIKES AND G 40 KTS BY LATE AFTN WITH POSSIBLE ISO SVR.
PLENTY OF SHEAR AVBL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IN NJ TODAY. CAPE/ML CAPE MAY
BE A LITTLE ON THE LOW SIDE FOR MID SUMMER... UNDER 1500J.


=============

Watch the event be more intense for many of us today than yesterday's "you're all going to die, love the spc" event.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 134 Comments: 34115
OK...LOL...people taking reporting severe reports wayyyyy too seriously these days. (tries not to pick agw fight lol)

---
0054 60 GARLAND SEWARD NE 4094 9699 CORN FLATTENED IN THE AREA
===

Really? I give up. Really...I do.

What's next? Grass lying in same direction after sea breeze?

Bird relocates from birch tree to maple?

:/

:)

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 134 Comments: 34115
Really wunderground? Now you have autoplaying video ads? If I weren't on someone elses' system I'd take care of that. It's 630am and I want sound blaring out of nowhere?

*&^% you.

Ugh....

---anyways.

Yep, LT, disappointing, and I figured after reading everyone elses' messages as the system passed through that that would be the case. At least we had rain...and I did receive several other shots of light rain over the night but those echos must have waned overnight.

Had a dry thunderstorm for a spell around 11pm. Nothing on radar yet several close flashes of lightning.



Today's local zone forecast product has the same strong language for storms as they did yesterday. Identical wording. Yet the SPC only has us in the green as opposed to red.

What will be the difference today? We probably get something that can be classified as a thunderstorm.

55mph wind gust at Sandy Hook, essentially a miles long sand bar dividing Raritan Bay and the Atlantic...was the 'big winner'.


Well, have a good day folks, and enjoy whatever rain comes. We all need it for certain.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 134 Comments: 34115
From Pleasant Mount here, where we had tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings. Huge branch cracked and brought down my dog runner. Power out for close to 4 hours. Still out just down the road.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hello all, I haven't posted in quite some time, but I've been reading a lot from work. There were about 6000 out of power from here to New Haven a few hours ago, but it's since dropped to 4000 even though the number of individual outages has increased. The highest returns on the radar passed right over me, but we never got the hail they mentioned.

Saw a few tress that were struck by lightening and 1 was laying on power lines and had caught fire when I drove home after the first line. Loving the rain amounts, can't wait to see some totals.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just rain up here today, but welcome of course; never even heard a rumble, but was north of the watch area anyway.

Hope everyone fared well!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Storms were decent here, with strong winds at the beginning and the intense thunder and lightning coming after the heavy rains. The clouds were something to behold as the line came in over Manhattan toward me. It's still raining at this hour, a moderate mist. Great weather for the gardens.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well "P", you had just about the same as I got(see post #152). Pretty disappointing. It does look, like you said, that ENE movement of the rain in PA should give us some nice totals over night.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8012
Spring Lake saying less than 5 customers out. You one of five? Wow!

1600 in Tinton Falls.
2300 in Howell
1000 in Freehold
1000 in Marlboro.

JCPL saying widespread storm damage?

I dunno...where??
We all topped around 40mph.
Can't be anything widespread.

huh....
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 134 Comments: 34115
Well goofy I have power here between Asbury Ave and W.Park Ave.

But on the west side of Asbury Ave they are out.


Interesting....

MANY OUTAGES in the region!


Meanwhile that line began to produce some decent lightning and thunder now that it's moved through to the south.

We had a couple more shots of moderate rain.

Looks nice throughout central PA to potentially give us a couple chances at some batches of rain - provided the line doesn't decide to surge southward again.

Showers are building in northern NJ and quickly filling in from there down to the line. We will be in solid light rain soon enough.

Another batch entering east-central PA is moving ENE towards us.

I am liking this flow that has set up!

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 134 Comments: 34115
Temp dropped from 90 to 75. RH @ 82. Winds gusted to 25-33 mph. Scattered lightning and thunder to the north and south. Not much OH. Chilli w/ rice outstanding.
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3348
Trans Fire and e1ec fai1 few min ag0 seems its dividing ar0und us
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3348

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