Potential Major Storm for Eastern US for January 26-27...

By: Zachary Labe , 8:16 PM GMT on January 21, 2011

Current wavelengths are supporting a large synoptic storm east of the Mississippi River Valley during the January 26th to the 27th with widespread moisture from the Southeaast to New England. This setup is corresponded with highly favorable teleconnections. The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) remains negative but has shifted the higher heights more east-based. This causes less blocking upstream. Blocking is typically associated with suppression and tracks of coastal lows well over 100mi off the coast. Also blocking allows for a slower movement of low pressures ushering in cold air to the right of the low in the large cold sector of the storm. When the blocking is allowed to relaxed or becomes displaced as in this instance, it allows cyclogenesis to often occur a bit farther to the west offering warmer air with a southeasterly flow off the Atlantic. This upcoming coastal threat will favor the later with dampened upstream blocking. Also the MJO (Madden-Jullian Oscillation) is entering phases 7-8. The MJO is a measure of the positioning of the monsoonal rains across the Indian Oceans. Since all global weather patterns are interconnected, differing wavelengths of pressure in the Indian Ocean will in time affect areas downstream in the jet stream across North America. Here is the current composite 500mb mean charts for an MJO phase 7 during January from a meteorological study by Allan Huffman...

Link
As noted above, increasing ridging across the western United States with a deep trough over the east coast often occurs. This corresponds to the current teleconnective pattern over North America with a positive PNA (Pacific/North American Pattern) which favors high pressure over the western United States coupled with upper level ridging.

The teleconnections are certainly signaling the classic jet stream setup for eastern cyclonegesis. But several 'issues' will likely prevent a major east coast snowstorm for areas in the major metropolitan region of the United States. Paul Kocin and Louis Uccellini's monograph of Northeast snowstorms signals the classic setup for widespread historical snowfalls to be accompanied by an arctic high pressure to the north of the storm. Typically we would root for a large anticyclone to the north or north-northeast of New England across southern Canada. This helps usher in cold air funneling in the western periphery of the low pressure. Also this helps prevent the low pressure from running too far inland.

The current synoptic setup shows the high pressure to the north of the low quickly scooting to the northeast and eventually too far east to save many from the expected rainfall. The 1/21/11 12utc ECMWF shows the banana high displaced to the east in an unfavorable location.

Kocin/Uccellini's near miss historic east coast snowstorm often featured a high pressure in a similar displaced location. Typically this would then favor inland snows with a mix or rain across eastern areas. While a severe arctic air mass will be in place along with a fresh snow pack over the Northeast, oftern these air masses can disperse quicker than one would assume. Current GGEM/UKMET/ECMWF guidance supports the upper level trough becoming negatively tilted towards the easteern Mississippi Valley. With these higher amplitude trough, the banana high is quick to depart and allows the cyclogenesis to occur farther along the coast. The 1/21/11 12utc GFS shows this evolution a tad differently, but does appear to be an eastern outlier. The 12utc GEFS mean shows a farther west solution, which often argues that the operational model is too far east. Most of my analogs support the heaviest snows well northwest of I-95 as warmer invades from the east. Despite several global models showing the low becoming vertically stacked allowing H85s to crash, there will likely be a southeast maritime flow across eastern areas.

The track of the H5 low tracks across Virginia, which is a bit too far north for a favorable snowstorm for most areas south of Washington DC for certain. Given the departing arctic air mass I would expect areas that receive mainly rainfall still to receive snow accumulations on the front end of the storm. The ECMWF mentioned earlier supports a quick 4-8in along most of I-95 before rainfall.

At this point, those farther east will be hoping to look for the 500mb low to track farther south, the banana high to become more situated north and not northeast, and the exact placement of the negatively titled trough.

While the threat is several days away, current climatology and guidance supports a very high threat of a large storm system over the eastern United States in this time frame. Whether it is rain or snow, there appears to be a large amount of moisture involved with ECMWF QPF up to 4in in northern Delaware and southeastern Pennsylvania. I know many are critical of predictions of storms well in advance, but meteorology is about understanding the synoptic setup that leads to the development of these storms. Watching the evolution of this situation will be very interesting and I am becoming increasingly enthused for those well inland. Even along the coast heavy rain and high winds are possible with a western storm track so threats will be high with any storm scenario. Stay tuned for updates throughout the weekend. For now if I had to make a forecast, this would be the precipitation scenario map.

The exact placements of the trough/shortwaves/high pressures will change, but I have not seen such consistency in the computer models for a large event in a very long time. This is also backed up by a favorable wavelength pattern as mentioned earlier in the blog. I think there is a higher possibility of this tracking farther west and inland than it tracking east. The odds of all snow along I-95 to the coast remain low given the departing high pressure. Another concern is the poor modeling this winter and the trend for storms to phase later than expected. Something to keep reminded of... Stay tuned!

Short Computer Model Introduction
This is a pretty decent quick intro on computer model forecasts along with beneficial links. Computer models use the complex calculus algorithms to print out the forecasts. Despite our complaning with the models, without them much of us would be lost except in the short time. Some of the earlier computer models consisted of the ETA, NGM, and AVN, which forecasted generally less than 84hrs. They were highly inaccurate, but provided a basis. The ETA was actually the computer model that helped meteorologists predicted the "storm of the century" in March of 1993 so well in advance. But now more than ever we have a myriad of computer models available to the general public with many mesoscale models only available to NOAA. Lets start with the general. All current computer models are based off on the Zulu time. Zulu time is also known as UTC or Greenwich time . Generally to forecast timing of storms my special BUFKIT data transitions UTC time to EST time, which is helpful. But BUFKIT is a special download, which I won't get into, but the transition is helpful as for some reason I never am able to understand time zones too well, hahaha. Anyways let me start with each computer model...

-GFS (Mentioned most of all as it is a global model (Global Forecasting System))
~Available in 0z (initiates at 10:30pm), 6z (initiates at 4:30am), 12z (10:30am), 18z (4:30pm)
~Forecasts out to 384hrs
~Typical biases
Cold bias on long range on 18z run
6z and 18z slightly unreliable
Northwest trend on lows within 84hrs of event

-ECMWF (This is another global model run by an international organization (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts))
~Available in 0z (initiates at 1:30am), 12z (initiates at 1:30pm)
~Forecasts out to 240hrs
~Typical biases
Overphases lows in 168hr range
Holds too much energy in southwest
Known as extremely accurate within 140hrs

-NAM (Mesoscale short range model)
~Available in 0z (Initiates at 9:30pm), 6z (Initiates at 3:30am), 12z (initiates at 9:30am), 18z (Initiates at 3:30pm)
~Forecasts out to 84hrs
~Typical biases
Highly inaccurate towards the 84hrs
Handles coastal storms very well and southwest overrunning events
Tendency for way too much QPF

Those three above are the most common models for a beginner in computer models, but there are many more. All of the global models consistent of ensemble models also, such as the GFS has a myriad of ensemble (small models) that create a mean solution known as GEFS. They typically are too cold and southeast with low pressures, but some reason the NWS seems to enjoy using them. There are also more global models than the GFS and ECMWF... The UKMET is run by an internation organization and forecasts out to 144hrs. This model typically comes out an hr before the ECMWF and usually is pretty similar to the ECMWF. The ECMWF may also be known as the EURO by the way. There is also a Canadian model known as the GGEM/CMC, which again contains ensemble models. All of the internation models only run 0z and 12z runs. This is probably for the best as all models only receive new upper air data in 0z and 12z runs, so this is why the American model runs of the 6z and 18z are usually worthless. There is also a high resolution Canadian model known as the RGEM, which is very similar to the American NAM. High resolution (mesoscale models) are important as they usually are able to pick up on fine details such as frontogenesis, advection, adebiatic cooling, convection, etc. Some of this high resolution models include the WRF, HIRES NMM, RUC, ARW. They all are usually very accurate, but the WRF and HIRES NMM usually have wet bias.

As mentioned above there are ensemble models which come up with a mean solution instead of using one computer model's algorithms like the global models use. These ensemble mean solution are known as the MREF and SREF with MREF being in the medium range and SREF in the short range. SREF is usually pretty accurate and forecasts within 87hrs of an event. There are also other computer models used for hurricane forecasting, but I will not get into them. For instance one is the GFDL, which you may have heard of. I find I use mainly the GFS, NAM, and WRF/NMM in the summer, but use all of the models in the winter.

A few models to avoid...
JMA
KMA
CAMPASS
DGEX

Here is a list of links for explanations on how to interperate the models...

-PennState E Wall, which runs all of the models
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html

-PennState E Wall tutorial on computer models (Check it out)
http://www.personal.psu.edu/adb241/eWallTutorial/ Main.htm

-Severe Weather parameters used on models, explanation
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/n=severe_weather_chec klist_paper

-Forecasting winter weather
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/soo/docu/precip_type. php

-NCEP; used to find American Computer models
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

-Severe Weather Models
http://www.wxcaster.com//conus_0012_us_models.htm

-Winter Weather Models
http://www.wxcaster.com/conus_snowfall.htm

-Model Soundings
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?te xt=KMDT#

The last link is listed above as model soundings which takes all of the data to print out all sorts of information including precipitation type along with dynamics such as Omega. This is very complex and takes some time getting used to. Also you may see this data instead of in charts, it is sometimes used in SKEWT T charts.

I hope all of this information helped out... Keep in mind precipitation amounts is QPF, with 500mb aloft being the jet stream, 700mb aloft measuring relative humidity, 850mb aloft measuring 5,000ft aloft temperatures, 925-1000mb measuring surface temperatures. Generally I would look at the GFS and NAM first to get a hang of it along with reading the tutorial links. Use the 850mb and 2m charts for the GFS especially as they are pretty self explanatory and color coded. You will find some maps for international models are confusing and black and white.

"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2010-2011 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 1-4in
Monthly Total (November)- Trace
Monthly Total (December)- 0.6in
Monthly Total (January)- 11.65in
Seasonal Total- 12.25in
Winter Weather Advisories- 5
Winter Storm Warnings- 0
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Watches- 1

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 23.7F
Lowest Low Temperature- -1.7F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
First accumulating snow - December 10 - 0.50in
Clipper light snow - January 7-8 - 2.25in then another 1in
Double Barrel Low - January 11 - 4.5in of snow
Coastal Low - January 17-17 - 1.8in of snow/sleet
Arctic Front - January 20-21 - 2.1in of snow

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)



This is the most difficult forecast I have ever had to make for the region. The gradient is going to be very sharp across the north and will make for a very high bust potential. This map is a bit bullish for northern areas. We shall see. Enjoy!

"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2010-2011 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 4-8in
Monthly Total (November)- Trace
Monthly Total (December)- 0.6in
Monthly Total (January)- 18.15in
Seasonal Total- 18.75in
Winter Weather Advisories- 6
Winter Storm Warnings- 1
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Watches- 1

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 23.7F
Lowest Low Temperature- -1.7F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
First accumulating snow - December 10 - 0.50in of snow
Clipper light snow - January 7-8 - 2.25in then another 1in of snow
Double Barrel Low - January 11 - 4.5in of snow
Coastal Low - January 17-17 - 1.8in of snow/sleet
Arctic Front - January 20-21 - 2.1in of snow
Upper level/coastal low - January 26 - 5.75in of snow

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1831. Alee6k
Quoting Hoynieva:
Welcome, Alee6k. Take your coat off and stay awhile.


Thanks Hoy... trying to regain feeling in fingertips. (that teaches me not to shovel 50 feet of sidewalk without gloves).
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Quoting danielb1023:
can anyone comment on the rain snow line. Everytime I check the radar more of NJ is in the blue, Now Ocean City down to the majority of Cape May are showing snow on radar. I feel that a changeover is not in the works at this time.


To be quite honest, I live by The Weather Channel's "Current Surface Maps" and radar for the rain/snow/sleet lines. To me, they seem to be the most accurate. Try it. TWC, go figure...
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I normally would "chime in" but this storm situation has been confusing from the start, confusing from 4-5 days ago even! Even from last night!!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8012
1828. anduril
Link On the full resolution loop you can see the energy transfer starting to happen between the low in the Tenn valley and the one offshore. In my opinion I think the low in the Tenn valley is certainly strong enough to still give us decent snow totals this evening. Multi-feet? No. 3-6in? Certainly possible.

However, I could be WAY wrong :)
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Quoting 717WeatherLover:
Steven D said last night that he felt that there was a 20% chance of a "full phase" with this storm. He is now saying he feels that there is a 70% chance. This could be bad for us in the LSV because the tighter the low winds up off the NJ coast the more the precip shield draws inward creating the famous "sharp cut-offs" that we so dread.

Others are saying that the convection to the SW of us is far outperforming and impressive which would bode well for us. I just don't know enough to decide which scenario wins. I wish P451 would chime in as he always had good insights on the now casting. Anyone wanna take a shot?


Well, as PP showed, the low is strengthening off of Hatteras, so that does indeed usually equate to your current fear. Could be an impressive storm, tightly wrapped up, where the coastal areas would see the strongest and most persistent bands. But, still a ways to go...don't lose hope yet.
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Steven D said last night that he felt that there was a 20% chance of a "full phase" with this storm. He is now saying he feels that there is a 70% chance. This could be bad for us in the LSV because the tighter the low winds up off the NJ coast the more the precip shield draws inward creating the famous "sharp cut-offs" that we so dread.

Others are saying that the convection to the SW of us is far outperforming and impressive which would bode well for us. I just don't know enough to decide which scenario wins. I wish P451 would chime in as he always had good insights on the now casting. Anyone wanna take a shot?
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Quoting 900MB:
Could we be looking at a foot or better in NYC? Looks that way. We have about 3 inches in NYC and 2" in the last hour or so. It is supposed to be all snow and heavy til 1 before round 2. So, 6 inches round 1??? And another 6-8 later??


Did you actually measure that? It's 4" in Brooklyn, just a stop over on the L from Manhattan. You may have a bit more than you think. And yes, if we get what they were thinking tonight, we'll surely be at a foot or more.

We'll probably be at about 5" after that last band goes through
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1824. 900MB
Could we be looking at a foot or better in NYC? Looks that way. We have about 3 inches in NYC and 2" in the last hour or so. It is supposed to be all snow and heavy til 1 before round 2. So, 6 inches round 1??? And another 6-8 later??
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Quoting WallSquan:
The numbers are increasing:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1021 AM EST WED JAN 26 2011

...SIGNIFICANT SNOW EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NJZ013-014-020>022-026-027-262330-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-110127T0900Z/
WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...JACKSON...
MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST
1021 AM EST WED JAN 26 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE: MIXED SNOW...SLEET AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW THIS
EVENING AND BECOME HEAVY TIMES.

* ACCUMULATIONS: 8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING: SNOW AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW THIS
EVENING...AND MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END
BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

* IMPACTS: SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE TWO OR THREE INCHES THROUGH THE
MORNING COMMUTE...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SLICK TRAVEL. ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL BE FALLING BY THE END OF THE EVENING COMMUTE...AND
TRAVEL WILL BECOME MORE DIFFICULT AS THE EVENING WEARS ON.


In other words, they're expecting about 6" - 9" in that area with part II this evening.
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The low is forming off Hatteras. This may not be a good sign for the LSV.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
Welcome, Alee6k. Take your coat off and stay awhile.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well that was an adventure! Drove to school in Newtown in what usually takes 30 minutes in dry conditions. Took me an hour and a half just to find out that they had finally closed the moment I pulled into the parking lot. Took me an hour to get back home to Hamilton.

@ 10:30am, 33.0F, Wind ENE 9pmph, Light Snow

Measured 3.0" new snow depth here.

Around 4" in Newtown PA.

Temp has risen +1.4F in the last hour.

Heavy burst of snow heading this way within a half hour. Wondering if any sleet involved with it.

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The numbers are increasing:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1021 AM EST WED JAN 26 2011

...SIGNIFICANT SNOW EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NJZ013-014-020>022-026-027-262330-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-110127T0900Z/
WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...JACKSON...
MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST
1021 AM EST WED JAN 26 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE: MIXED SNOW...SLEET AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW THIS
EVENING AND BECOME HEAVY TIMES.

* ACCUMULATIONS: 8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING: SNOW AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW THIS
EVENING...AND MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END
BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

* IMPACTS: SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE TWO OR THREE INCHES THROUGH THE
MORNING COMMUTE...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SLICK TRAVEL. ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL BE FALLING BY THE END OF THE EVENING COMMUTE...AND
TRAVEL WILL BECOME MORE DIFFICULT AS THE EVENING WEARS ON.
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1818. Alee6k
Blizz- fantastic Blog! i've been lurking since last year... and i must say, you have the best accuracy in the Biz!

Here in central Jersey, we just scraped about 3 inches of snow off the car.
Really light snow and mix now falling... not as strong as the last two hours, but still coming down from the north-east.

Thanks to every one on the blog for making this the most entertaining and educational Weather Discussions Blogs out there.

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Quoting originalLT:
Jcantin12, first, where are you, and second I'd hold off on a comment like that till tomorrow morning. You could look very silly.


Yep, waaaaay too early to be using that word.
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1816. 900MB
Quoting 10301:
hey Hoy, any salt trucks yet in Brooklyn? I have a city bus stuck on my block already


Looks like another tough week for Bloomberg! 3 inches and counting in Manhattan and the streets are snow and slush covered. Need plows, but I haven't seen a one!
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The nanny asked me if she she take my 15 month old daughter to her music class today. I told her to stay home....am I being a worried parent or is that the right call?
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Jcantin12, first, where are you, and second I'd hold off on a comment like that till tomorrow morning. You could look very silly.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8012
If we're in a big hole like that I'll be pissed. No other way to say it.
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
Quoting jcantin12:
whelp, after all this hype a week or so ago, this storm is DEF a bust. too bad.


What? Where are you? This thing has barely even begun and I'm at 4" Definitely not a bust.
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Quoting CapeCoralStorm:
Just got an official measurement from my patio. 4 5/8" Thats on my patio, might as well call it 5.


I just measured as well - 4" on the dot and still fluctuating between light and moderate snow.

After that heavy stuff in Jersey moves through (assuming it makes it here) we could already have a half a foot up here before round 2 is even close to beginning.
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Quoting originalLT:
Just looking at radar, it seems the second and major low seems to be over NE Tenn. and is really "winding up"! and moving East or ENE. Also there seems to be a stripe of very heavy precip moving NE across from the Philadelphia area all the way off the Cenreal NJ shore.

Thats the band that went through Newark,DE a little bit ago. HUGE snowflakes at a rate of atleast 1" per hr. lasted 30-40 min.
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whelp, after all this hype a week or so ago, this storm is DEF a bust. too bad.
Member Since: January 24, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 12
Just got an official measurement from my patio. 4 5/8" Thats on my patio, might as well call it 5.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just looking at radar, it seems the second and major low seems to be over NE Tenn. and is really "winding up"! and moving East or ENE. Also there seems to be a stripe of very heavy precip moving NE across from the Philadelphia area all the way off the Cenreal NJ shore.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8012
Quoting CapeCoralStorm:
Snow is slowing and the sky is brightening up.. Rd.1 is about over. Maybe Rd.2 is the K.O. punch.


That's what the buzz is. Watch out for round 2.
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
Snow is slowing and the sky is brightening up.. Rd.1 is about over. Maybe Rd.2 is the K.O. punch.
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Quoting Hoynieva:
Hahaha, I love this. They posted this map earlier with 6" for pretty much everyone, now they update two hours later and it shows this:



ummmm hellooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
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Quoting pittsburghnurse:


Hoy, I too would say no. You still have the warm air at the surface layer vs. the cold air aloft to combine for your precip. Very simplistic but that's my rationale.


seems just as reasonable as anything else i've heard
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Snow continues to fall here in Palmyra, PA.

Meanwhile, down the street, Joe Calhoun at WGAL issued a 9:00 AM update admitting that he didn't see this morning's snow coming, and that it should be clearing before picking back up around 2:00 PM

2:00 PM - 6:00 PM: 1-3 inches
6:00 PM - 1:00 AM - 3-6 inches

He then follows it up by showing the northern part of the LSV (Cumberland, Dauphin, Lebanon counties) at 1-4 inches, with 4-8 to the south.

What a dope.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
Quoting CapeCoralStorm:
One day it started snowing, and it didn't quit for 24 hours. We been through every kind of snow there is. Little bitty stingin' snow... and big ol' fat snow. Snow that flew in sideways. And sometimes snow even seemed to come straight up from underneath. Shoot, it even snowed at night...


Hahaha. Forrest with a twist...
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One day it started snowing, and it didn't quit for 24 hours. We been through every kind of snow there is. Little bitty stingin' snow... and big ol' fat snow. Snow that flew in sideways. And sometimes snow even seemed to come straight up from underneath. Shoot, it even snowed at night...
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Looks like we skipped the sleet and went right to light snow. Medium sized wet flakes. 36 degrees. Wind from SSE @ 3mph.
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
Hahaha, I love this. They posted this map earlier with 6" for pretty much everyone, now they update two hours later and it shows this:

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will any of this freak snow you are all talking about make its way up to coastal Maine?
Member Since: January 24, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 49
Quoting danielb1023:


Hoy, I know our weather skills are not exactly top notch but does this piece that broke off negatively impact what was supposed to come tonight??? Anyone?


Hoy, I too would say no. You still have the warm air at the surface layer vs. the cold air aloft to combine for your precip. Very simplistic but that's my rationale.
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
Quoting bwi:
I think NWS is underdoing it a little with the winter weather advisory for DC. Blizz has us in the 5-10 range, NWS 2-4. I'm siding with Blizz.

12z NAM still has a lot of precip headed this way, and I think most will be accumulating snow.

HPC has DC in the high chance of 4+ and the medium chance of 8+.


I agree!
Member Since: January 9, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 138
They finally woke up!!! They were saying 4-8 total, now look........

Today: Snow before 2pm, then snow and sleet. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 35. East wind between 6 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Tonight: Snow, mainly before 3am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 24. North wind between 8 and 11 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
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1793. RkTec
10 a.m. obs:

Emmaus, PA Lehigh County

Temp: 30.9
Light Snow
2.2" accumulation

Some intense stuff down by Philly and the NW burbs. They must be getting smoked this morning.
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Those reds and oranges could be our first sleet when it gets here



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Quoting Beachllama:
Just had moderate rain with flakes mixed in switch to light rain with less flakes. It's 34F here, Germantown, MD. I woke up to the sound of sleet this morning.


Now I have snow with a bit of rain mixed in, the rain/snow line must be over my house.
Member Since: January 9, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 138
1790. bwi
I think NWS is underdoing it a little with the winter weather advisory for DC. Blizz has us in the 5-10 range, NWS 2-4. I'm siding with Blizz.

12z NAM still has a lot of precip headed this way, and I think most will be accumulating snow.

HPC has DC in the high chance of 4+ and the medium chance of 8+.
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1789. GTOSnow
The precip shield needs to push north!! It looks like it is just south of us here in MA/Northern RI
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Quoting danielb1023:


Hoy, I know our weather skills are not exactly top notch but does this piece that broke off negatively impact what was supposed to come tonight??? Anyone?


I would say no, but that's just a guess, dan. I think that's all the mets have been doing from the start is guessing, and look what's happened thus far. This storm is a surprise in many ways so we'll just have to see how it continues to evolve. Your guess is as good as mine...or anyones.
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To give you an idea of how intense the snow has been here. I took these about 20 minutes ago from my roof...



This building is around the block...




We are now up to 3"

Looks like there will be a slow down before another strong band currently in southern NJ makes its way up here.


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Just had moderate rain with flakes mixed in switch to light rain with less flakes. It's 34F here, Germantown, MD. I woke up to the sound of sleet this morning.
Member Since: January 9, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 138
1785. Gaara
Quoting drj10526:
Gaara I am going with stafford springs CT at 19"

LT I will be looking for your posts later tonight. I have to play a playoff hockey game in my hockey league in Bridgeport at 10:30 pm. They never cancel and I have to drive from New Milford CT. Your observation will help me decide if i should even try to make it Should be fun in the jeep but I have to realistic and I will definitely help knowing first hand what's down there.

Good luck to all.....


Wonderland of Ice? We keep forgetting to take their curling tutorials.
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I have never seen snow flakes like this before. they are more like snow sheets. they are HUGE the only thing i can think to compare them to is silver dollars. maybe bigger. and coming down heavy
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1783. anduril
Quoting Ironpoe:
Where's Blizz when we need him? What is going on here?
He's probably in school :)
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1782. Ironpoe
Where's Blizz when we need him? What is going on here?
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Quoting shipweather:


Well that's cool.


This was basic WAA Snow from the low that broke away. We're going to be dry for a little bit today before the Main Event really kicks in tonight.

Read that some Mets believe mesoscale banding sets up over MDT tonight. That would increase accumulations.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250

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Ph.D. Student - Earth System Science (UC Irvine), B.Sc. - Atmospheric Sciences (Cornell University)

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