Potential Major Storm for Eastern US for January 26-27...

By: Zachary Labe , 8:16 PM GMT on January 21, 2011

Current wavelengths are supporting a large synoptic storm east of the Mississippi River Valley during the January 26th to the 27th with widespread moisture from the Southeaast to New England. This setup is corresponded with highly favorable teleconnections. The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) remains negative but has shifted the higher heights more east-based. This causes less blocking upstream. Blocking is typically associated with suppression and tracks of coastal lows well over 100mi off the coast. Also blocking allows for a slower movement of low pressures ushering in cold air to the right of the low in the large cold sector of the storm. When the blocking is allowed to relaxed or becomes displaced as in this instance, it allows cyclogenesis to often occur a bit farther to the west offering warmer air with a southeasterly flow off the Atlantic. This upcoming coastal threat will favor the later with dampened upstream blocking. Also the MJO (Madden-Jullian Oscillation) is entering phases 7-8. The MJO is a measure of the positioning of the monsoonal rains across the Indian Oceans. Since all global weather patterns are interconnected, differing wavelengths of pressure in the Indian Ocean will in time affect areas downstream in the jet stream across North America. Here is the current composite 500mb mean charts for an MJO phase 7 during January from a meteorological study by Allan Huffman...

Link
As noted above, increasing ridging across the western United States with a deep trough over the east coast often occurs. This corresponds to the current teleconnective pattern over North America with a positive PNA (Pacific/North American Pattern) which favors high pressure over the western United States coupled with upper level ridging.

The teleconnections are certainly signaling the classic jet stream setup for eastern cyclonegesis. But several 'issues' will likely prevent a major east coast snowstorm for areas in the major metropolitan region of the United States. Paul Kocin and Louis Uccellini's monograph of Northeast snowstorms signals the classic setup for widespread historical snowfalls to be accompanied by an arctic high pressure to the north of the storm. Typically we would root for a large anticyclone to the north or north-northeast of New England across southern Canada. This helps usher in cold air funneling in the western periphery of the low pressure. Also this helps prevent the low pressure from running too far inland.

The current synoptic setup shows the high pressure to the north of the low quickly scooting to the northeast and eventually too far east to save many from the expected rainfall. The 1/21/11 12utc ECMWF shows the banana high displaced to the east in an unfavorable location.

Kocin/Uccellini's near miss historic east coast snowstorm often featured a high pressure in a similar displaced location. Typically this would then favor inland snows with a mix or rain across eastern areas. While a severe arctic air mass will be in place along with a fresh snow pack over the Northeast, oftern these air masses can disperse quicker than one would assume. Current GGEM/UKMET/ECMWF guidance supports the upper level trough becoming negatively tilted towards the easteern Mississippi Valley. With these higher amplitude trough, the banana high is quick to depart and allows the cyclogenesis to occur farther along the coast. The 1/21/11 12utc GFS shows this evolution a tad differently, but does appear to be an eastern outlier. The 12utc GEFS mean shows a farther west solution, which often argues that the operational model is too far east. Most of my analogs support the heaviest snows well northwest of I-95 as warmer invades from the east. Despite several global models showing the low becoming vertically stacked allowing H85s to crash, there will likely be a southeast maritime flow across eastern areas.

The track of the H5 low tracks across Virginia, which is a bit too far north for a favorable snowstorm for most areas south of Washington DC for certain. Given the departing arctic air mass I would expect areas that receive mainly rainfall still to receive snow accumulations on the front end of the storm. The ECMWF mentioned earlier supports a quick 4-8in along most of I-95 before rainfall.

At this point, those farther east will be hoping to look for the 500mb low to track farther south, the banana high to become more situated north and not northeast, and the exact placement of the negatively titled trough.

While the threat is several days away, current climatology and guidance supports a very high threat of a large storm system over the eastern United States in this time frame. Whether it is rain or snow, there appears to be a large amount of moisture involved with ECMWF QPF up to 4in in northern Delaware and southeastern Pennsylvania. I know many are critical of predictions of storms well in advance, but meteorology is about understanding the synoptic setup that leads to the development of these storms. Watching the evolution of this situation will be very interesting and I am becoming increasingly enthused for those well inland. Even along the coast heavy rain and high winds are possible with a western storm track so threats will be high with any storm scenario. Stay tuned for updates throughout the weekend. For now if I had to make a forecast, this would be the precipitation scenario map.

The exact placements of the trough/shortwaves/high pressures will change, but I have not seen such consistency in the computer models for a large event in a very long time. This is also backed up by a favorable wavelength pattern as mentioned earlier in the blog. I think there is a higher possibility of this tracking farther west and inland than it tracking east. The odds of all snow along I-95 to the coast remain low given the departing high pressure. Another concern is the poor modeling this winter and the trend for storms to phase later than expected. Something to keep reminded of... Stay tuned!

Short Computer Model Introduction
This is a pretty decent quick intro on computer model forecasts along with beneficial links. Computer models use the complex calculus algorithms to print out the forecasts. Despite our complaning with the models, without them much of us would be lost except in the short time. Some of the earlier computer models consisted of the ETA, NGM, and AVN, which forecasted generally less than 84hrs. They were highly inaccurate, but provided a basis. The ETA was actually the computer model that helped meteorologists predicted the "storm of the century" in March of 1993 so well in advance. But now more than ever we have a myriad of computer models available to the general public with many mesoscale models only available to NOAA. Lets start with the general. All current computer models are based off on the Zulu time. Zulu time is also known as UTC or Greenwich time . Generally to forecast timing of storms my special BUFKIT data transitions UTC time to EST time, which is helpful. But BUFKIT is a special download, which I won't get into, but the transition is helpful as for some reason I never am able to understand time zones too well, hahaha. Anyways let me start with each computer model...

-GFS (Mentioned most of all as it is a global model (Global Forecasting System))
~Available in 0z (initiates at 10:30pm), 6z (initiates at 4:30am), 12z (10:30am), 18z (4:30pm)
~Forecasts out to 384hrs
~Typical biases
Cold bias on long range on 18z run
6z and 18z slightly unreliable
Northwest trend on lows within 84hrs of event

-ECMWF (This is another global model run by an international organization (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts))
~Available in 0z (initiates at 1:30am), 12z (initiates at 1:30pm)
~Forecasts out to 240hrs
~Typical biases
Overphases lows in 168hr range
Holds too much energy in southwest
Known as extremely accurate within 140hrs

-NAM (Mesoscale short range model)
~Available in 0z (Initiates at 9:30pm), 6z (Initiates at 3:30am), 12z (initiates at 9:30am), 18z (Initiates at 3:30pm)
~Forecasts out to 84hrs
~Typical biases
Highly inaccurate towards the 84hrs
Handles coastal storms very well and southwest overrunning events
Tendency for way too much QPF

Those three above are the most common models for a beginner in computer models, but there are many more. All of the global models consistent of ensemble models also, such as the GFS has a myriad of ensemble (small models) that create a mean solution known as GEFS. They typically are too cold and southeast with low pressures, but some reason the NWS seems to enjoy using them. There are also more global models than the GFS and ECMWF... The UKMET is run by an internation organization and forecasts out to 144hrs. This model typically comes out an hr before the ECMWF and usually is pretty similar to the ECMWF. The ECMWF may also be known as the EURO by the way. There is also a Canadian model known as the GGEM/CMC, which again contains ensemble models. All of the internation models only run 0z and 12z runs. This is probably for the best as all models only receive new upper air data in 0z and 12z runs, so this is why the American model runs of the 6z and 18z are usually worthless. There is also a high resolution Canadian model known as the RGEM, which is very similar to the American NAM. High resolution (mesoscale models) are important as they usually are able to pick up on fine details such as frontogenesis, advection, adebiatic cooling, convection, etc. Some of this high resolution models include the WRF, HIRES NMM, RUC, ARW. They all are usually very accurate, but the WRF and HIRES NMM usually have wet bias.

As mentioned above there are ensemble models which come up with a mean solution instead of using one computer model's algorithms like the global models use. These ensemble mean solution are known as the MREF and SREF with MREF being in the medium range and SREF in the short range. SREF is usually pretty accurate and forecasts within 87hrs of an event. There are also other computer models used for hurricane forecasting, but I will not get into them. For instance one is the GFDL, which you may have heard of. I find I use mainly the GFS, NAM, and WRF/NMM in the summer, but use all of the models in the winter.

A few models to avoid...
JMA
KMA
CAMPASS
DGEX

Here is a list of links for explanations on how to interperate the models...

-PennState E Wall, which runs all of the models
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html

-PennState E Wall tutorial on computer models (Check it out)
http://www.personal.psu.edu/adb241/eWallTutorial/ Main.htm

-Severe Weather parameters used on models, explanation
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/n=severe_weather_chec klist_paper

-Forecasting winter weather
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/soo/docu/precip_type. php

-NCEP; used to find American Computer models
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

-Severe Weather Models
http://www.wxcaster.com//conus_0012_us_models.htm

-Winter Weather Models
http://www.wxcaster.com/conus_snowfall.htm

-Model Soundings
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?te xt=KMDT#

The last link is listed above as model soundings which takes all of the data to print out all sorts of information including precipitation type along with dynamics such as Omega. This is very complex and takes some time getting used to. Also you may see this data instead of in charts, it is sometimes used in SKEWT T charts.

I hope all of this information helped out... Keep in mind precipitation amounts is QPF, with 500mb aloft being the jet stream, 700mb aloft measuring relative humidity, 850mb aloft measuring 5,000ft aloft temperatures, 925-1000mb measuring surface temperatures. Generally I would look at the GFS and NAM first to get a hang of it along with reading the tutorial links. Use the 850mb and 2m charts for the GFS especially as they are pretty self explanatory and color coded. You will find some maps for international models are confusing and black and white.

"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2010-2011 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 1-4in
Monthly Total (November)- Trace
Monthly Total (December)- 0.6in
Monthly Total (January)- 11.65in
Seasonal Total- 12.25in
Winter Weather Advisories- 5
Winter Storm Warnings- 0
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Watches- 1

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 23.7F
Lowest Low Temperature- -1.7F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
First accumulating snow - December 10 - 0.50in
Clipper light snow - January 7-8 - 2.25in then another 1in
Double Barrel Low - January 11 - 4.5in of snow
Coastal Low - January 17-17 - 1.8in of snow/sleet
Arctic Front - January 20-21 - 2.1in of snow

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)



This is the most difficult forecast I have ever had to make for the region. The gradient is going to be very sharp across the north and will make for a very high bust potential. This map is a bit bullish for northern areas. We shall see. Enjoy!

"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2010-2011 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 4-8in
Monthly Total (November)- Trace
Monthly Total (December)- 0.6in
Monthly Total (January)- 18.15in
Seasonal Total- 18.75in
Winter Weather Advisories- 6
Winter Storm Warnings- 1
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Watches- 1

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 23.7F
Lowest Low Temperature- -1.7F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
First accumulating snow - December 10 - 0.50in of snow
Clipper light snow - January 7-8 - 2.25in then another 1in of snow
Double Barrel Low - January 11 - 4.5in of snow
Coastal Low - January 17-17 - 1.8in of snow/sleet
Arctic Front - January 20-21 - 2.1in of snow
Upper level/coastal low - January 26 - 5.75in of snow

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Log In or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1881 - 1831

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58Blog Index

Quoting 10301:
The band from central jersey has reached southern nyc. Biggest flakes so far today.


Yep. It's a shame it weakened a bit though. The stronger area is just to our east.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
I don't know if this was posted - Blizz will probably be online earlier today. His school district is being let out a bit early today as well as most other districts in the area.

1st round - 1.6" of snow = 0.13" of water equivalent
temp 32.6F
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Still not a single flake here in springfield :(

Back home they've been getting hammered all morning
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting anduril:
From the latest radar loops it almost looks like the low in the tenn valley is digging SOUTH east.


I think what we are looking at is the transition from a northerly track to a more easterly track which is a good sign that the low is doing it's thing off the coast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1877. 10301
The band from central jersey has reached southern nyc. Biggest flakes so far today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1876. GTOSnow
I work in smithfield and live 25 mi north in Sutton, Ma. I'd love to get the snow as far north as Sutton, but it looks to be heading south of there. It is now coming down good in smithfield though. I need it to lift due north instead of east. South eastern Ma, heading out to the cape looks like they will benifit from the bands moving through CT now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bwi:
DC upgraded to winter storm warning. 5-10 inches.


Did you guys get much with the first round?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1874. bwi
DC upgraded to winter storm warning. 5-10 inches.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Just got a call from CDSD they have a 1 hr early dismissal so we can expect to hear from Blizz between 1:30 and 2!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
15Z HRRR has the precip shield farther north with the "heavy stuff" reaching into southern Dauphin County now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1871. anduril
From the latest radar loops it almost looks like the low in the tenn valley is digging SOUTH east.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1870. Alee6k
Hum, big giant sticky flakes again...
Temp just floating above 32.5

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTOSnow:
You think we'll get some northward movement on it, seems to be drying up before it gets here.


NORTH??? Like up here to me in So. Maine??
I have been watching the radar and that sneaky little bugger is sliding right beneath me :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GTOSnow, we've had light snow here in Kingston in South County RI for about half an hour. It does look like it's heading in your direction on the radar from Eastern CT. Where do you live?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTOSnow:
You think we'll get some northward movement on it, seems to be drying up before it gets here.


Here ya go:

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Long Island is about to get hammered

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1865. GTOSnow
You think we'll get some northward movement on it, seems to be drying up before it gets here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting PalmyraPunishment:
Latest surface suggests that the transfer may take place just off of ORF. I believe this was what JB was alluding to yesterday when he threw out some pretty high numbers...





Yep, the farther north we can get that precip shield before the low winds up and sucks the moisture east, the better off it will be for us central pennsylvanians.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTOSnow:
We are getting left out up here in norther RI :( Light snow just started, but looks to be heading due east, we need a little more of a northward trend to this!!


Have you looked to the SW of you? Heavy heavy snow headed your way. Just give it time, should be there in about an hour and a half, probably less.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting TrentonThunder:


For the Mid-Atlantic I-95 corridor, I think anything with a light intensity early this afternoon could mix a little, but not cause any reduction in accumulations and not much if any reduction in current snow depths. Anything of moderate to heavy intensity should be all snow.

Thanks! Good to know. I'm a little concerned about power outages when the wind kicks up. Getting my work done now. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1860. GTOSnow
We are getting left out up here in norther RI :( Light snow just started, but looks to be heading due east, we need a little more of a northward trend to this!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TrentonThunder:


Once you head into northeast Jersey and New England though, they have mostly overacheived. Underacheived in the LSV etc...


Well I mean for us along I-95 near Philly. Storms this year haven't quite hit the bar around here; even the shore has had some real overachievements this season.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting PhillySnow:
Ok; snow is stopping for now. Road has been plowed; no salt yet. I think they're waiting for the rain, if there is going to be any - which makes sense in a way.

Total snow this morning = 4"


For the Mid-Atlantic I-95 corridor, I think anything with a light intensity early this afternoon could mix a little, but not cause any reduction in accumulations and not much if any reduction in current snow depths. Anything of moderate to heavy intensity should be all snow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Latest surface suggests that the transfer may take place just off of ORF. I believe this was what JB was alluding to yesterday when he threw out some pretty high numbers...



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting PhillySnow:

NWS just upped us to 8 - 12", so you're right in there TT. What I don't understand is that they say snow will be falling during the morning rush, and then in another place they say it'll end at 4am. ???


They mean this mornings rush. Heaviest should fall for you between 6pm - 12pm and taper off in the early morning hours, done by tomorrow mornings rush. Then mostly sunny & breezy tomorrow. The snow stuck to all the trees will look great tomorrow when the sun breaks out. Great photo opportunities.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PhillySnow:
Ok; snow is stopping for now. Road has been plowed; no salt yet. I think they're waiting for the rain, if there is going to be any - which makes sense in a way.

Total snow this morning = 4"


Does it? I'm not sure we'll get rain out of this event.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxgeek723:
Craziness! Already 3 inches on the ground, heavy snow mixed with sleet! For a brief 10 minutes it was freezing rain but that didn't last long at all.

Mt Holly bumped my total up to near 10 inches. This morning storm really took everyone by surprise! Local schools are letting out early. Roads are nasty and slushy. This is very exciting!

Meanwhile, this harsh cold winter has left significant ice pack on local lakes. A man was skating on a lake near me with no trouble or fear at all, the first time since the 70s. "NO SKATING" signs are posted all over trees by the lake, and you could probably walk across it.

Finally, after all the snowstorms underdid it this year, we might have an overachiever!


Once you head into northeast Jersey and New England though, they have mostly overacheived. Underacheived in the LSV etc...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ok; snow is stopping for now. Road has been plowed; no salt yet. I think they're waiting for the rain, if there is going to be any - which makes sense in a way.

Total snow this morning = 4"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHOLESALE UPDATE TO NEAR TERMS GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR MUCH QUICKER
DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY PRECIP. LIKELY CAUSE FOR POOR MODEL HANDLING
WAS DUE TO PROLIFIC CONVECTION OVER THE GULF...INTERRUPTING MODEL
HANDLING OF SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hoynieva:


Yep, especially since we're already approaching it from the first round. I think some areas will exceed 15"


Yes, possibility.

I'll up my educated guess to 8" - 14" now with this I-95 runner that we're experiencing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Storrs, CT. Flurries started at 10:30, its picking up fast. Easily an inch on the ground. Scrambling to finish up work and play!!! I hope the second wave hits hard here in Eastern CT.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TrentonThunder:
6" - 12" total accumulation for the I-95 corridor from Delaware through New Jersey look pretty good to me.

NWS just upped us to 8 - 12", so you're right in there TT. What I don't understand is that they say snow will be falling during the morning rush, and then in another place they say it'll end at 4am. ???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Heavy snow here. That band hit me at 11:02.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ADCS:
Wow, that last band over Philly was unbelievable! Huge flakes coming down insanely fast - I couldn't hold my head up straight!


Looks like that band is heading more east than north or am I wrong. Im currently in Cranford NJ, check out a map....i shouldnt have a problem getting under that should i? I want the heavy stuff
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Radar show we're getting set for another "blob" of heavy snow. Can't really call it a band, so blob will do. Then it's over until tonight.

Thing is, the models seem to want to scoot that second low directly over SE PA, but looking at the jet and the current radar, I can't fathom it. It looks like it's going to go over western PA from SW to NE to me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1845. ADCS
Wow, that last band over Philly was unbelievable! Huge flakes coming down insanely fast - I couldn't hold my head up straight!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link

FWIW-HRRR composite reflectivity looks pretty good. You can see how York, Lancster & Chester counties look to be on the heaviest axix but not bad for the next tier of counties.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1843. Snowmog
wow! this 2 part system scenario is interesting, I looked at the radar this morning and said "hey! it's in two peices now". :0) I wonder if that means I'll get more than the forecasted 6-10 in Tiverton RI?? hmmm and, the bigger question, should I leave work in Lakeville MA early today?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1842. 900MB
Quoting testbenchdude:
I think you guys up in the NYC metro area are about to get hammered by what's just north of Philly just now... It recently swung through West Chester and I think we're up to 6" now. That's the "1-3 inches" all the local mets were calling for this morning before they actually looked out the window.

It'd be nice to get confirmation that what's to follow this afternoon is actually going to be heavier or not. If it is... well then, wow.

wundermap


Bring it!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Craziness! Already 3 inches on the ground, heavy snow mixed with sleet! For a brief 10 minutes it was freezing rain but that didn't last long at all.

Mt Holly bumped my total up to near 10 inches. This morning storm really took everyone by surprise! Local schools are letting out early. Roads are nasty and slushy. This is very exciting!

Meanwhile, this harsh cold winter has left significant ice pack on local lakes. A man was skating on a lake near me with no trouble or fear at all, the first time since the 70s. "NO SKATING" signs are posted all over trees by the lake, and you could probably walk across it.

Finally, after all the snowstorms underdid it this year, we might have an overachiever!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1840. 900MB
Quoting anduril:
Link On the full resolution loop you can see the energy transfer starting to happen between the low in the Tenn valley and the one offshore. In my opinion I think the low in the Tenn valley is certainly strong enough to still give us decent snow totals this evening. Multi-feet? No. 3-6in? Certainly possible.

However, I could be WAY wrong :)


Anduril- awesome link! That low over the Tenn Valley is no joke!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting TrentonThunder:
6" - 12" total accumulation for the I-95 corridor from Delaware through New Jersey look pretty good to me.


Yep, especially since we're already approaching it from the first round. I think some areas will exceed 15"
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1838. Snowmog
Quoting Hoynieva:


Hahaha. Forrest with a twist...


Love it! :0)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting testbenchdude:
I think you guys up in the NYC metro area are about to get hammered by what's just north of Philly just now... It recently swung through West Chester and I think we're up to 6" now. That's the "1-3 inches" all the local mets were calling for this morning before they actually looked out the window.

It'd be nice to get confirmation that what's to follow this afternoon is actually going to be heavier or not. If it is... well then, wow.

wundermap


Yep, that's precisely why I haven't shoveled yet. Just waiting for that nice heavy stuff to get back in here and out again. Snow has been light for the last 25 minutes but it's starting to pick up a bit now.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting RkTec:
10 a.m. obs:
Some intense stuff down by Philly and the NW burbs. They must be getting smoked this morning.


Yes, we are! :) Just went for a great walk; snowing hard with sleet just starting to mix in a bit. Temp 31F, 3.5" snow so far.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Is anyone familiar with the HRRR models? Evidently it has moved the heaviest precip shield north some which is good for us.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
6" - 12" total accumulation for the I-95 corridor from Delaware through New Jersey look pretty good to me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think you guys up in the NYC metro area are about to get hammered by what's just north of Philly just now... It recently swung through West Chester and I think we're up to 6" now. That's the "1-3 inches" all the local mets were calling for this morning before they actually looked out the window.

It'd be nice to get confirmation that what's to follow this afternoon is actually going to be heavier or not. If it is... well then, wow.

wundermap
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hoynieva:


I would say no, but that's just a guess, dan. I think that's all the mets have been doing from the start is guessing, and look what's happened thus far. This storm is a surprise in many ways so we'll just have to see how it continues to evolve. Your guess is as good as mine...or anyones.


No worries...Energy #2 will be just fine.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1831. Alee6k
Quoting Hoynieva:
Welcome, Alee6k. Take your coat off and stay awhile.


Thanks Hoy... trying to regain feeling in fingertips. (that teaches me not to shovel 50 feet of sidewalk without gloves).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1881 - 1831

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58Blog Index

Top of Page
Ad Blocker Enabled

The Northeast Weather Blog...

About Blizzard92

Ph.D. Student - Earth System Science (UC Irvine), B.Sc. - Atmospheric Sciences (Cornell University)

Local Weather

Light Rain
44 °F
Light Rain Mist

Blizzard92's Recent Photos

Fall in Ithaca
Snow Fluff
Deep Creek and Wisp, MD
Deep Creek and Wisp, MD

Recommended Links

Personal Weather Stations

About Personal Weather Stations