Widespread Winter Storm; January 11-12...

By: Zachary Labe , 8:29 PM GMT on January 09, 2011

Thoughts on January 11-12 Snowstorm...
A 1008mb low pressure is developing off the coast of Texas spreading of plethora of moisture northward along the Gulf Coast states. The low is courtesy of a deep trough sinking south towards the middle of the nation with an accompained strong 500mb low. With the trough axis being situated relatively far west, a low pressure will develop along a weak jet streak towards Missouri and slowly move northward. This low pressure will weaken and shear apart the Gulf of Mexico low pressure. Both lows will begin to lift northeastward with moisturing favoring the primary low and coastal low near Georgia. In between a dry slot will affect parts of the central Appalachians with moisture less than .15in. As the double barrel low complex continues to progress, the primary low over the Ohio valley will begin to weak and shear apart courtesy of significant blocking across northern Canada with a near record low Arctic Oscillation and negative NAO. This will begin an energy transfer restrengthening the coastal low. The timing of this transfer of energy remains highly uncertain at this point and will be very important to the evolution of this system as it traverses up the coastline with a heavy snowstorm across New England.

By Tuesday morning widespread light snow will begin across the Middle Atlantic reaching the Mason-Dixon line. Snow will be relatively light with rates only about .25in per hour as model QPF suggests less than .25in south of the Mason-Dixon line as this region will essentially be in a dry slot. As the coastal low continues to develop, the precipitation shield will begin to intensify from the Mason-Dixon line on northward with moderate snow by early afternoon as far north as the Mason-Dixon line in a widespread manner with rates around .5in per hour. Given the retreating high over Canada, the system will be a relatively quick mover. Current high resolution model guidance shows excellent dendritic growth over much of Pennsylvania west the New Jersey/Pennsylvania border coinciding with H85 thermals below -6C. This will allow favorable snow ratios of 15:1 or slightly higher over central and western Pennsylvania. Current QPF for the state of Pennsylvania through Tuesday night will be around .25-.4in from the overrunning, warm air advection precipitation.

By Tuesday night the low will begin to rapidly intensify off the coast throw a strong CCB across parts of eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and southern New York. Favorable dendritic growth accompanied by enhanced frontogenesis will allow snow rates to increase to 1in/hr especially northeast of Trenton, New Jersey. The low will rapidly intensify to +-992mb by Wednesday morning with heavy snow across much of New England with several enhanced mesoscale bands. A tight pressure gradient will also allow surface winds to increase to 35mph+ gusts along the coast courtesy of a 50knot+ low level jet mixing occasionally down to the surface in heavy precipitation. The low will continue to move northeast with storm total QPF in excess of 1in from just northeast of New York City up through much of New England. Orographic lift across the Berkshires up through the Presidentials will enhance snowfall with storm totals upwards of 14in across the favored upslope regions. Given the relatively fast movement of the storm, snow totals should remain below 18in for all areas.

Many questions remain on the exact track and intensity of the low along with the question of timing on the transfer of energy. But the above summary gives a general basis to the evolution of the storm system. Expect more updates coming tomorrow.

Radar...
Radar...

Warnings...
Warnings...

NAO...
NAO...

This is my current rain/snow line...
Salisbury, Maryland - Georgetown, Delaware - Atlantic City, New Jersey - Islip, Long Island - Nantucket, Massachusetts

*Note west of this line will stay all snow for the entire duration of the storm. Along the line the snow will vary to sleet and perhaps rain for a point. But given the rapid cyclogensis the coastal low will undergo, most all areas even along the rainn/snow line will receive large snowfall accumulations especially as one moves north of Atlantic City.

Storm Reports...
STAY TUNED!

Storm Impacts...
1. Widespread snow accumulations in excess of 1in from Georgia to Maine.
2. Gusty winds as low pressure bombs out off of Long Island with gusts exceeding 35mph within 50mi of the Atlantic coast.
3. Heavy snow accumulations of 12in+ in parts of New England.
4. Embedded snow bands from New York City on northeastward with 2-3in/hr rates.
5. Very cold temperatures west of I-95 barely rising out of the low to mid 20s during the bulk of the snow accumulation.

Snow Map...

The more difficult locations for the forecast include central Pennsylvania and northern parts of New England across northern Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. These areas have the highest bust potential in this storm.

Selected City Snowfall Accumulations for the Northeast...
Hagerstown, MD- Light to moderate snow; 1-3in
Baltimore, MD- Moderate snow at times; 2-5in
Salisbury, MD- Wet snow and sleet mix; 1-4in
Washington, DC- Light to moderate snow; 1-4in
Wilmington, DE- Moderate snow, heavy at times; 4-8in
Dover, DE- Moderate snow; 3-7in
Trenton, NJ- Moderate to heavy snow; 5-10in
Pittsburgh, PA- Moderate snow; 2-5in
State College, PA- Light to moderate snow; 1-4in
Harrisburg, PA- Moderate snow; 2-6in
Philadelphia, PA- Moderate to heavy snow; 5-9in
Scranton, PA- Moderate snow; 3-6in
New York City, NY- Heavy snow; 6-12in, locally more
Poughkeepsie, NY- Moderate to heavy snow; 4-8in
Binghamton, NY- Moderate snow; 3-6in
Albany, NY- Moderate to heavy snow at times; 3-7in
Hartford, CT- Heavy snow; 10-15in
New London, CT- Heavy snow; 10-15in
Concord, NH- Moderate to heavy snow; 6-12in
Providence, RI- Heavy blowing snow; 10-16in
Worcester, MA- Heavy snow; 12-16in
Boston, MA- Heavy snow, windy at times; 8-14in
Nantucket, MA- Heavy snow mixing with sleet at times, windy; 4-9in
Hyannis, MA- Heavy snow, windy with drifting snow; 7-13in
Portland, ME- Heavy snow; 6-12in
Bangor, ME- Moderate to heavy snow; 4-9in
"Final Forecast Above"

Model Analysis
A very dynamic storm setup is creating model chaos with polarizing views dependent on the models. The high resolution models including the NAM, NMM, and ARW are indicating this storm becoming a bit more amplified allowing for a further west track. This allows the low to intensify quicker with heavier precipitation. Several mesoscale boundaries are being indicated especially towards southern New England particularily just northwest of New York City with an increased area of upward vertical velocities are present based on the NAM 700mb. The mesoscale boundaries will feature the heaviest snow rates accompanied by the best dendritic growth with hourly rates up to 2in per hour. Current GFS/NAM combination indicates a deep area of frontogenic forcing with an embedded CCB band across central Connecticut and central Massachusetts. Further south, the less dynamics will be available especially south of New York City with a weaker portion of the deformation band. The overrunning precipitation associated with the primary low over Ohio will spread light to moderate snows developing from Washington DC northward stretching from Columbus, OH to Reading, PA. Shortly, HIRES NMM simulated radar indicates a collapsing precipitation shield as energy is transferred off the coast. The simulated radar shows a large strengthening deformation band from about Harrisburg on eastward quickly moving north and east. The GFS and NAM differ on the strength of this axis as for QPF placement. Again the mesoscale, high resolution models show significantly more precipitation than the operational models of the GFS, ECMWF, and GGEM. Now the mesoscale models have a precipitation wet bias, but still the differences are quite significant in QPF in when taking in account the wet bias. The H5 charts are quite similar on all the guidance, but the surface plots differ. Given the general theme of declining QPF in antecedent runs leading up to the event, I am actually using GFS/ECMWF QPF has my primary blend. While yes the mesoscale models are quite wetter along with the SREF blend, the recent poor model QPF performance leads me to blend a bit conservative at this point. Considerable questions remain to where the dry slot occurs in Pennsylvania and how far north the heavy precipitation gets across northern New England. These nuisances will likely only be discovered upon actual evaluation of the radar. For further reference, after tracking the RUC QPF during the December 26 storm, I found it to be highly inaccurate. Overall QPF performance has been very poor recently, so I am sticking with the low QPF blend.

After the storm...
As the low pressure zips northeast out of the region, an anticyclonic flow will resume with a bit of lake effect snow. The air mass left in its wake will be very dry likely preventing a widespread lake effect snow outbreak. The flow also favors a northerly trajectory, keeping a hold on the lake effect machine. A few areas downwind of the lakes in the Syracuse-Finger Lake belt may receive a quick 3-6in in the Wednesday to Thursday time frame. Further south across Maryland and Pennsylvania the snow belts will likely get a minimal 1-5in including the Laurel Highlands. A weak disturbance will move across the area Friday with some light snow showers and flurries across the Northeast especially towards New York state. Little to no snow accumulation is likely. A very strong high pressure, 1038mb, will slowly move east out of the middle of the nation bringing clearing skies across the entire region towards Saturday. This high pressure will center itself across the Middle Atlantic likely bringing some radiational cooling Saturday night for one of the coldest nights of the winter. With a widespread snow cover over the entire east coast coupled with a below normal trough and low dewpoints, lows below zero are likely in the colder spots near Bradford, Pennsylvania and up across northern New York state along with parts of Maine. High temperatures much of the week will be around (-3)-(-7)F below normal for the entire Northeast, but especially for those with a solid snow pack. By Sunday, things begin to get interesting as a -3SD trough moves south over the Northern Plains with H85 thermals near -25C accompanied by a 1038mb high pressure. Lows over the Midwest may drop to near -20F or so in some areas across the north country. This arctic front will center itself across the Mississippi Valley along the steep temperature contrast. A low pressure will develop along the front, but it remains uncertain with regards to the track. In any case it is likely some light snow will exist along the arctic front as it cross through the Northeast with several heavy squalls given what appears a decent WINDEX event. The low pressure over the mouth of the Mississippi will just play another role. The ECMWF delays this arctic air mass a bit later in the week, so the long range definitely remains uncertain post Saturday, January 15. Following that I am expecting a slight rebound in temperatures to close the month of January with slightly above normal temperatures as the pattern reloads. The key word there is reloads. Current wavelengths support another wintry blast for an above normal snowfall February. At this point if this forecast holds, most all winter predictions will completely bust. As we say last year, an anomalous -AO will dominate despite whatever the ENSO conditions.

Please post storm reports in this blog from across the Northeast during the winter storm and please post location of observation in each report...

This blog is in progress. Check back soon...

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"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2010-2011 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 6in
Monthly Total (November)- Trace
Monthly Total (December)- 0.6in
Monthly Total (January)- 7.75
Seasonal Total- 8.35in
Winter Weather Advisories- 2
Winter Storm Warnings- 0
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Watches- 1

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 24.1F
Lowest Low Temperature- 12.8F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
First accumulating snow - December 10 - 0.50in
Clipper light snow - January 7-8 - 2.25in then another 1in
Double Barrel Low - January 11 - 4.5in of snow

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

January Snowstorm... (Blizzard92)
Dawn arises on a wintry landscape full of mystery and solitude.
January Snowstorm...

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625. ADCS
Do the models in general just have trouble with dealing with Miller B scenarios? It would make sense, given how dicey and contingent on timing the energy transfer is.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Blizz please tell me Philly still has a shot. I want snow! If I don't get it, I WILL SHUT DIS BLOG DOWN, lol nah. But it would be saddening to tell all those kids depesperate for snow on Facebook the dissapointing news that they'll have to wake up usual time tomorrow.

I've noticed this winter has, geographically, been the reversal of the 2009-2010 winter. In 2009-10, DC, Baltimore, and Philly got slammed with New York sometimes fairing well and Boston getting nada.

Now in 2010-2011, Philly is getting sideswept like New York did and NYC and Boston are getting hammered, leaving Balt & DC snowless. I'm just hopeful that we'll have a storm that brings heavy snow to the starved regions that missed out. The storm of February 25-26, 2010 barely brought us anything and the left out cities really cashed in. Pray for a storm like that this year!
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623. P451
Quoting danielb1023:
Given that map am I wrong in still having confidence in a solid 8 inch+ snow? I think that Low position is south of what I was expecting at this point.

BTW, I think we name this Tropical Storm Norlun for Cape Cod, in honor of our good friend from this past weekend.


The question is where does the rapid transfer of energy occur? Wherever it occurs generally anyone south of that latitude will get low totals.

So if it occurred at 40N then central jersey southward doesn't get much.

It also isn't shown to occur until late this evening. 10pm onward.


That coastal low is pretty far south but it's very weak.

There is still a chance these two systems don't phase in time to make this happen for NJ/DE.

New England on the other hand looks in store for a very big snowfall event. CT and north and east should be just fine (sans immediate coastlines).

Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
light supposedly freezing mist or drizzle here. This is definitely not an igloo making ingredient. Maybe as a hardener after it's made.

Back to the bridge.
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Freezing drizzle here in Silver Spring, MD but not ever a hint of a mix was in our forecast. So much for models.
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TheRasberryPatch- In all honesty, I am very pleased with the evolution of this storm given my forecast from nearly a week ago. While yes the details are not correct, but the general evolution was near spot on.

danielb1023- Still 5-10in for your area I believe.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15228
619. P451
TONIGHT
SNOW THIS EVENING...THEN SNOW WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100
PERCENT.


=======
The immediate coastline is tabbed for 4-8".

Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
618. P451
Tinton Falls
Occasional flakes. 31.8F
Coastal still looks anemic as can be.
Not sure if this thing gets cranking quickly enough to give me a good snowfall or not.
6-10" is still the forecast.

We'll see what happens.
Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
Given that map am I wrong in still having confidence in a solid 8 inch+ snow? I think that Low position is south of what I was expecting at this point.

BTW, I think we name this Tropical Storm Norlun for Cape Cod, in honor of our good friend from this past weekend.
Member Since: September 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 300
Just like you said last weekend Blizz. you didn't think the Ohio storm would get too far north and then move underneath of us before transferring offshore
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6338
They just put up blizzard warnings for my area.Another work from home day tomorrow.
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Quoting Snowlover2010:



Those radar returns totally just jumped State College.

Wow, it really did develop just to your east. Looks like there are three heavy bands...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15228
Quoting danielb1023:
Blizz, where is the coastal Low currently? It looks like an semblance of a Low is about at the NC/VA border still. If so, im still ok with that. We have time!

Latest surface map...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15228
Ok, Noaa has us getting between 10-16 inches with no mixing. The evening news has us at 8-12 with mixing. Who do I listen to..LOL
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Quoting Blizzard92:

Yep, that is correct. About .25in of snow here so far with snow lightening up before those heavy radar returns move east shortly.


Those radar returns totally just jumped State College.
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
Blizz, where is the coastal Low currently? It looks like an semblance of a Low is about at the NC/VA border still. If so, im still ok with that. We have time!
Member Since: September 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 300
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
I assume Blizz that most of our snow will come from the storm out of Ohio and not from the storm forming off the coast?

717Weather - PP sane here? huh? hahahaha

Yep, that is correct. About .25in of snow here so far with snow lightening up before those heavy radar returns move east shortly.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15228
snowing hard in Shippensburg....wish I was there.

http://www.ship.edu/Webcams/Huber_Art_Center_Construction/
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I hope we're far enough west of I-95 here in Kutztown to get some good snow.
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I assume Blizz that most of our snow will come from the storm out of Ohio and not from the storm forming off the coast?

717Weather - PP sane here? huh? hahahaha
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6338
Quoting Blizzard92:
Mason803- Those yellows are about ready to cross South Mountain! Keep us updated!!!


I'm ready!! still mod. snow
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
Kinda dissapointing. Looks like heaviest radar returns are jumping right over state college.
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
Quoting CapeCoralStorm:
Why do I have this miserable feeling that newark,de is going to get shafted on this.......

Yeah, so far things are not looking great for Philadelphia and on southward. But we still have time to get the coastal working for you.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15228
Why do I have this miserable feeling that newark,de is going to get shafted on this.......
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 213
Mason803- Those yellows are about ready to cross South Mountain! Keep us updated!!!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15228
Quoting Blizzard92:
Currently the primary low over Ohio is a tad stronger allowing for a widespread shield of snow over Pennsylvania currently. QPF actually may be a bit more than expected especially across the south central mountains. This will allow for a delayed transfer of energy to the secondary low off the coast. It will occur, but will be slower than expected. This will cause the heaviest snows to definitely be focused towards New England. This scenario is better for western and central Pennsylvania, but worse for those along I-95 until you get about into central New Jersey on northward where they still will do well. Generally if the low was stronger off the coast, the QPF shield would have a tight gradient. But with a stronger primary low, the precipitation is more widespread for areas west of I-95. Currently the best model animating this solution is the HIRES NMM.


two thumbs up
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
Quoting danielb1023:
as long as its central nj and northeast......dont be tellin me its nyc and northeast later. HA!

Hahaha... I did that just for you!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15228
as long as its central nj and northeast......dont be tellin me its nyc and northeast later. HA!
Member Since: September 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 300
597. fz1
Light rain outside of ACY. Airport showing 33F
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Currently the primary low over Ohio is a tad stronger allowing for a widespread shield of snow over Pennsylvania currently. QPF actually may be a bit more than expected especially across the south central mountains. This will allow for a delayed transfer of energy to the secondary low off the coast. It will occur, but will be slower than expected. This will cause the heaviest snows to definitely be focused towards New England. This scenario is better for western and central Pennsylvania, but worse for those along I-95 until you get about into central New Jersey on northward where they still will do well. Generally if the low was stronger off the coast, the QPF shield would have a tight gradient. But with a stronger primary low, the precipitation is more widespread for areas west of I-95. Currently the best model animating this solution is the HIRES NMM.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15228
Quoting PhillySnow:

I've been to Smugglers Notch in spring and winter. Beautiful place - lucky you for living there.


It is a great place to live! I work in Burlington(40 minutes away) but the skiing/hiking,etc is 5 minutes away! I don't miss any powder days even if I can only get 4 or 5 runs in.
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Blizz will this Central PA good fortune extend out here to Berks and Lehigh counties?
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Quoting Blizzard92:
Again, I still really like my snow map above. So generally I am forecasting locations using those snow totals above.<BR>

Yep, during light snow it is mainly needles. But the heavier bursts have wonderful dendrites.


AKA stop asking me how much snow i'm going to get in my backyard lol

franklin and fulton counties s+ mod. snow here
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
Again, I still really like my snow map above. So generally I am forecasting locations using those snow totals above.

Quoting Mason803:
wow look at the the dbz's blossoming!! I can't beleive how fast this snow got cranking. Very large flakes as well

Yep, during light snow it is mainly needles. But the heavier bursts have wonderful dendrites.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15228
Blizz, NE NJ???
Member Since: September 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 300
Looks like the ULL is a bit stronger than models predicted. Will that pull the coastal in or push it out a bit?
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wow look at the the dbz's blossoming!! I can't beleive how fast this snow got cranking. Very large flakes as well
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
Quoting CapeCoralStorm:
Blizz, what are you thinking for Newark,De?

Probably a good 2-6in for your area.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15228
Blizz, what are you thinking for Newark,De?
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 213
Quoting 717WeatherLover:
Off to pick up my musician from musical practice at CD! See you all later to see how the energy transfer is going.

Haha... I do not do musical for some reason. I have been a member of CD singers for three years though (our rehearsal was canceled tonight).
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15228
Quoting Mason803:
0.5" of snow here so far ( Cashtown, PA) Snow is really picking up. Fulton County seems to be getting a good thump currently

That is part of an intense band of frontogenic forcing...

That band moving and enhancing through western Pennsylvania is going to give us a quick and very heavy thump of snow this evening. So far things are pretty good for us in central Pennsylvania.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15228
584. Gaara
Quoting Hoynieva:


Haha, you missed me. Your first reply apparently got lost in your pm files.


Somehow I threw snowtrucker's name in there because I had another PM from him. I will correct it when I get home from work. Trying to get as much done as I can before leaving.
Member Since: December 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 534
Off to pick up my musician from musical practice at CD! See you all later to see how the energy transfer is going.
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0.5" of snow here so far ( Cashtown, PA) Snow is really picking up. Fulton County seems to be getting a good thump currently
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
Snowlover2010- I still really like my snow map. Although I think those amounts of 3-6in I have for northeastern Maryland should be now 1-4in. I doubt anyone outside of the Appalachians will see greater than 1-4in south of the Mason-Dixon line.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15228
Tropical terror at Truro, MA!

The NWS needs to reconfigure how they generate graphics.
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Quoting Blizzard92:

Honestly the current radar is pretty good for us with returns all the way to Ohio moving east. Very impressive dbz returns over western Pennsylvania. Now for for Heavysnow, it looks terrible currently...


How bout for State College?
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
my totals on the NWS total snow forecast map has increased....i like that.
Member Since: September 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 300
About .1-.25in of snow here so far.

Quoting MarylandGirl:
WU has now changed out forcast for southern Maryland to a mix with a coating of ice and less than an inch of snow total. Your thoughts Blizz? Are they right?

Yep the H85 0C line moved a bit farther north. There may be some freezing drizzle and sleet in your area tonight, probably little to no snow.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15228
Blizzard warning up for eastern Ma, including Boston, but does not include the metro Providence, RI area.
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Quoting Blizzard92:

Honestly the current radar is pretty good for us with returns all the way to Ohio moving east. Very impressive dbz returns over western Pennsylvania. Now for for Heavysnow, it looks terrible currently...


Hahaha, Heavsnow = HeavysnOWND
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