A possible unsettled end of the week...

By: Zachary Labe , 10:41 PM GMT on September 13, 2009

"Afternoon Thoughts"(Updated 9/13)
Good afternoon all!!! So the big winter forecast debut is over and now it is time to analyze the pattern each week to make sure the forecast is on track. I think this coastal storm was optimistic in regards to the blocking scenario with a rex block/banana high which kept the low moving at a slow rate and allowing the precipitation to penetrate areas as far west as State College-Hagerstown. And looking into the long range this pattern appears to continue with slow moving cutoff lows and troughs over the east. This time of year is critical as historical records prove several scenarios. If we have a dominated mild October there is nearly a 75% chance of a mild winter to follow. So the key is to have a cold October as nearly 7 out of 10 cold Octobers featured cold and snowy winters. As for September there is not as much of a direct correlation between average temperature anomalies and winter average temperatures, but a cooler than normal September is loosely more favorable for a cold winter than a mild September, and it appears this September will fit the cooler than normal pattern. I have been analyzing trends this past week and it is looking more and more like an I-81 corridor winter. That means that coastal storms will track close enough to the coast for I-95 mixed precipitation with I-81 in the core axis of the heavy snow. Also this winter appears to have a higher than normal opportunity for large snowstorms with several large storms making for the higher than normal snow totals. I think this winter will be highly volatile with bitter cold vs. warm patterns. That though is typical of El Nino winters and is very favorable for large coastal storms. Remember my blog on the average Middle Atlantic Winter, a transition NAO from positive to negative correlates to coastal lows. Also current weather pattern regimes in northern Canada are bitter cold currently and that will continue. A build-up of cold air will allow a snow cover to build and ice to develop as we head through late September, which will be favorable for the US down the road. A few things can go wrong this winter such as a farther west trough centered in the Midwest as occasional lingering effects of La Nina with the negative PDO bring a weak and small southeast ridge. But really I think pure bad luck is the biggest detriment that will cause a lack of snow. And we all know we aren't the luckiest especially those of us in the Lower Susquehanna Valley, hahaha. Anyways that will be the last formal mention of winter in a blog for a few weeks. I just wanted to post a few thoughts of mine over the past week that were failed to be mentioned in my winter outlook.

By the way the new Fall blog format is now out. As you may have noticed the tropical discussion and severe weather outlooks have been replaced with a long term forecast and a fall foliage outlook. Have a great day!!!

"Regional Advisories"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Current Weather Map"

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

"7-Day Forecast Discussion"(Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware)(Updated 9/13)
1018mb high pressure remains in control for Monday for the entire Middle Atlantic region for another beautiful day. 15C H85 thermals will promote a mild day for much of the Middle Atlantic under clear skies only with a few patchy cumuli. Dew points will generally be pretty low in the mid to upper 50s throughout the day with low 60s over southern Maryland and southern Delaware. Patchy morning fog is likely after some radiational cooling. With a 15degree temperature contrast between lows Sunday night and water temperatures fog will become locally dense in the river valleys particularly across the western branch of the Susquehanna with visibilities below a quarter of a mile. Elsewhere generally ground fog will form with condensation values being reach by morning under calm winds and high pressure. Fog will limit visibility generally down to 1mile in the mountain valleys. By 9am fog will burn off with brilliant sunshine throughout the day. Highs will approach 84-86 for Washington DC with low 80s for most of Maryland, Delaware, and southern Pennsylvania. Western Maryland and north of the Pennsylvania turnpike will have highs in the upper 70s. Monday night will feature once again the typical Autumn radiational cooling conditions with clear skies, calm winds, and low dew points. With cool air sinking from the mountains into the valleys and the warm air rising, valley locations may drop into the 40s for western Maryland west of Cumberland and 40s for western and northern Pennsylvania. Central Pennsylvania and northern Maryland will see lows in the low to mid 50s with upper 50s and low 60s for Delaware and southern Maryland. Tuesday will be another gorgeous day with 1018mb high pressure in control. A cold front though will be dropping down through the Great Lakes and New York State promoting a few afternoon cumulus and cirrus clouds. Once again similar fog conditions will be likely Tuesday morning as there was Monday morning. This time of year is fog season you have to remember. Similar high temperatures will occur Tuesday as Monday but slightly warmer as winds shift near 260degrees. Highs will reach the mid 80s for the Philadelphia, Dover, Baltimore, and Washington DC metro areas with low 80s in surrounding suburbs. Western Maryland through the rest of Pennsylvania will feature highs in the upper 70s. Conditions begin to deteriorate slightly through Tuesday night. An alto-stratus deck will begin to move south through Pennsylvania and northern Maryland overnight. Weak frontogenesis will inhibit most moisture with PWATs only near 1inch, but a few sprinkles are possible with a few hundredths of an inch of rain for the state of Pennsylvania. Overnight lows will be in the 50s for Pennsylvania with low to mid 60 for Maryland, Delaware, and the Philadelphia metro region. Wednesday morning the stratus cloud deck will begin to thicken over the region with a few morning sprinkles over Maryland and Delaware. With the cold front passed through the Middle Atlantic stalling over northern Virginia, cool air will work its way over the region with a strong 1028mb high to the north. Cold air damming conditions will prevail and a difficult forecast resumes for the end of the week. Wednesday looks generally cloudy with cool temperatures. Highs for elevations above 1800ft will be in the low to mid 60s with 70s elsewhere over the region. Wednesday night begins the overrunning event with a series of weak waves along the quasi-stationary boundary. GFS is really on the wet side producing several inches of rain for southern Pennsylvania and northern Maryland, but I think it is suffering some convective feedback problems. Although the ECMWF has gotten increasingly wet in this time period, so possibly another heavy rain event is in store. Wednesday night will feature lows in the 60s for the entire region of Maryland and Delaware with upper 50s for southern Pennsylvania and mid 50s for northern Pennsylvania. QPF will remain below .05inch overnight Wednesday.

Just a reminder, this period from Wednesday through Friday remains lower than normal confidence, but I will provide updates throughout the week in my comments. Anyway clouds will begin to lower Thursday with IFR conditions for most of Pennsylvania except for extreme northwestern areas and all of Maryland and Delaware. Stratus ceilings will lower to 700ft with visibilities dropping to near 5miles. Isentropic lift and post frontogenesis will allow light to moderate rain to form Thursday with a weak shortwave. PWATs also will increase towards later in the day as tropical moisture works into the region up from the Gulf of Mexico. QPF amounts remain uncertain, but a general .5inch or so is possible. Rainfall will be in the form of several waves. Highs Thursday will be cool with an anticyclone to the north favoring cold air damming; also the flow will be onshore. Highs will be in the 50s for areas north of the Pennsylvania turnpike with 60s to the south through southern Maryland. Towards Thursday night a low pressure ejects out of the southeast along the quasi-stationary boundary. Increasing moisture and isentropic lift will promote a period of moderate to heavy rain towards Thursday evening with maybe some heavy QPF towards .75inches. Thursday night lows will be in the 50s for all three states with low stratus and rain. Friday will feature more rounds of rainfall ranging in intensity with weak warm air advection aloft, but cold air damming at the surface. Rainfall amounts will be .25-.5inches with highs in the 60s along and south of the Pennsylvania turnpike with 50s to the north. Friday night again will feature rain in the evening, but conditions may improve late. Lows again will be in the 50s. Keep in mind this period remains highly questionable and volatile so stay tuned for the latest updates. For now a reasonable estimate is for a period of unsettled weather from Wednesday through Friday with on and off rain, possibly heavy at times. Temperatures will also be well below normal with cold air damming conditions from a strong 1030mb high to the north. By the weekend conditions will improve; see the long term forecast for more details.

"Regional Radars"

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

"Regional Satellite"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Lower Susquehanna Valley Forecast"(Franklin, Adams, York, Lancaster, Cumberland, Perry, Dauphin, Lebanon Counties)(Updated 9/13)
High pressure will dominate the weather pattern for Monday and Tuesday across the Lower Susquehanna Valley with beautiful conditions. Monday morning will feature some patchy fog over the region with a land to water temperature contrast of 10-15degrees especially along areas lakes and rivers. Fog will limit visibilities in some areas in the morning to .25mile especially towards Halifax and Millersburg. Also light ground fog will likely form in the valleys Fishing Creek, Stony, Clarks, and Powells. Also light ground fog is likely along the foothills of South Mountain and over the farmland in Lancaster County. Fog will burn off in the morning with sunshine in the afternoon for all location. Skies will be generally completely clear with just a stray cumulus over the mountains. Highs will be slightly warmer than normal near 82 for Harrisburg, York, and Lancaster with 80 in the surrounding suburbs with upper 70s over northern Dauphin and across Perry Counties. Monday night will feature radiational cooling conditions with clear skies and calm winds. Temperatures will bottom out slightly below normal in the mid 50s for areas north of the Pennsylvania turnpike and around South Mountain with lows in the upper 50s for Lancaster and southern York County. Fog will form by early Tuesday morning for once again the same locations as Monday morning favoring the mountain valleys and farmland of the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Warm temperatures aloft will promote highs a degree or two warmer than Monday remaining slightly above normal. Highs will likely reach 83-84 for York, Lancaster, Harrisburg, and Gettysburg with lower 80s for surrounding areas and upper 70s for Perry County. Sunshine will prevail throughout the day with a touch of a small cirrus deck by dusk. Tuesday night will feature the approach of a weak backdoor cold front dropping south over the region. Weak lift with the front combined with poor upper air dynamics will promote most precipitation, but late Tuesday night a few sprinkles of a hundredth of an inch or two is possible. The front will push to the south of the Lower Susquehanna Valley with a shift in wind trajectories from the west to back onshore similar to the past few rainy days. Tuesday night will feature lows in the mid to upper 50s for all areas. Questions begin to arise towards the later part of the week as a stalled front and waves of precipitation will affect the valley Wednesday through Friday. Wednesday though is looking relatively dry with just cloudy skies and cool temperatures with highs in the upper 60s for Harrisburg, York, and Lancaster with mid 60s for Perry County and Northern Dauphin County. QPF looks generally below .1inch for much of the day. But by evening the first shortwave advances east from the west with light to moderate rain overnight especially towards early Thursday. Lows Wednesday night will be in the upper 50s for all locations with lows near 60 for the city of Lancaster. Thursday is looking gray and dismal with a chilly easterly wind with rain. Periods of rain are possible during the day with amounts varying to possibly moderate to heavy amounts (.5-.75) depending on the exact synoptic. Highs will be in the 60s for all areas with low 60s possible for elevations above 1500ft over South Mountain and across northern Dauphin County. Thursday night looks continued wet with periods of rain and rain showers. Rainfall amounts near .25inches are possible with lows in the upper 50s. Friday should feature again light fog, low stratus, and cool temperatures in the low 60s to perhaps upper 50s, and rain. Rainfall amounts will be near .25inches+. During this period from Wednesday through Friday there will be dry periods without rainfall as rainfall will not be as steady as the last event, but still conditions will be pretty miserable once again. By the weekend a cold front pushes the stalled boundary out of the area to allow for an amplified jet stream over the continental United States with well below normal air by Sunday over the Lower Susquehanna Valley; another strong taste of Fall.

"Current Lower Susquehanna Valley Radar"

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

"Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic Coast Marine and Boating Forecast"(Maryland and Delaware Coastal Forecast)(Updated 9/13)
Monday and Tuesday look very nice over the open waters of the Chesapeake and Atlantic shorelines of the Middle Atlantic. A general 270degree westerly flow will dominate for Monday and Tuesday with winds around 10knots over the open water, which is well below small craft advisory thresholds. But towards Wednesday conditions begin to deteriorate as a cold front moves through the Middle Atlantic the first half of Wednesday. Winds will increase to near 20knots Wednesday with the flow begin to turn more onshore as the day progresses and the front stalls over northern Virginia. As the front begins to stall out over the Middle Atlantic an overrunning regime will form from Thursday through Friday. Current QPF totals approach 1.5inches or more for many areas in the region as a series of waves move along the front. Rainfall will be periodic with showers and not a general shield. But conditions will still be poor with IFR conditions with cloud ceilings down to 500ft over the Chesapeake and Atlantic coastline. The flow will be out of the east with gusts occasionally up to 20knots. A small craft advisory may be issued towards later in the week. Wave heights will be minimal throughout the week generally 1-4ft for all coastal waterways. Overall the first half of the week will be free of marine concerns, but by the end of the week sporadic stratiform rain showers will form with low stratus and an onshore flow. Conditions will improve towards the weekend as a trough moves in over the region with a final cold frontal passage on Saturday. High pressure will build in for a chilly, but sunny Sunday. Highs this week over the waters will range from 65-75degrees. Happy boating!!!

"Current Atlantic Coast Forecast Wave Heights and Chesapeake Bay Forecast Wind Direction/Speed"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Fall Agriculture/Gardening 7-Day Outlook"(Updated 9/13)
Well there are less than a handful of gardening discussions to be posted. I cannot say I am overly sad though as about this time of year I get "gardened out," if that makes sense. In any case my vegetable garden is still throwing out a decent amount of produce. I have been consistently picking celery the last few days with decent sized stalks, about 20 of them this week. I have been still picking many tomatoes especially the cherry tomatoes and romas. My Early Girl tomato plant has completely died and I picked the remaining fruit. I also picked all of my leeks and will try to make potato and leek chowder and see how it tastes. The leeks grew to a thickness of about a quarter to half dollar diameter. I have also been still picking Swiss Chard. It is amazing how long the Swiss Chard has lasted as I have been picking it consistently since March, amazing! My Blueberry bushes are shedding their foliage with a deep red the color of a burning bush in the Fall. My lettuce and spinach is still growing although a few of my Spinach plants have bolted so I have picked them out of the garden. The lettuce is of the Buttercrunch variety. The herbs are still producing and I use them for almost every home-cooked meal. My beets have all been picked and they grew to about the size of golf balls and slightly large. The look wonderful with about the perfect size and shape! My yellow beans have all been picked this week also with a final batch that was had for dinner the other night with brown butter, yum! I still have a watermelon growing, so I guess I will see how that progresses in the coming days. It is not quite ripened yet. My broccoli and cauliflower are not doing too well; I just never seem to have any luck with Fall crops. My Big Bertha pepper plants are still producing many peppers surprisingly even with the cool and damp weather of the last few days. I also pulled all the dead and zucchini plants away and began to put some of my garden trellises away in the shed in preparation for colder times ahead. Overall another very successful vegetable gardening year! Now I cannot wait to start fall decorating with mums and ornamental cabbage plants!

Precipitation totals for this week remain high and with the recent heavy rain for many areas over eastern Pennsylvania, watering concerns will remain low. For areas though over southern and west-central Maryland along with western Pennsylvania watering may be necessary for Monday or Tuesday. But towards later in the week a stalled front and cut-off low will allow precipitation to move in for most areas possibly heavy especially for areas south of I-80. As far as frost/freeze concerns this week, you may have noticed I added the freeze map below for historical averages. This week I do not expect and widespread frost or freeze for most areas, but for the higher elevations of northern Pennsylvania lows may drop in the 30s by next week for Saturday night. Clouds and higher dewpoints should prevent most cold nights this week.
"Soil Moisture Anomalies and 5-day Precipitation Amounts from Hydro Prediction Center"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Average Date of First Freeze"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Fall Foliage Outlook" (Updated 9/13)
Anyone who has read this blog for a short period of time knows Fall is one of my favorite times of the year. In fact the month of October is one of my favorites. You cannot beat those cool days with a myriad of colors across the mountains and country sides. I was pretty busy this weekend taking some day trips such as up to Clarks Creek fishing for late season trout, which proved to be semi-successful with two fish. Also I took trip out to the East Broad Top Railroad which is a historical landmark for the US as one of the oldest narrow gauge railroads in the United States. It is a scenic steam locomotive ride through eastern Huntingdon County. I got to see how some of the early colors are doing and I was a bit surprised. Many locations across Maryland, Delaware, and southern Pennsylvania have already experienced a few bouts of color in young and distressed maples and some color in dying sumac and roadside invasive species weeds. But from about the Blue Ridge Mountains on north and west color is beginning to show a bit more in the 5% range. Elevations above 2000ft from central Pennsylvania through the Laurel Highlands are experiencing decent change for adult maples, dogwoods, and birch. Across western Maryland and northern Pennsylvania color is around the 5-10% range with elevations above 2200ft even showing some defined color for Maples with some spotty yellows on young oaks. As each passing day with shorter and shorter days more color will show. Peak fall foliage should be running about 5-10 days ahead of average based on current reports especially across northern Pennsylvania. Also a cool weather pattern will continue through the end of the month favoring enhanced color change. The northern side of east-west mountain ridges above 1800ft will notice the color first. For those in southeastern Pennsylvania in the Philadelphia metro region through most of Maryland and Delaware, you will have to wait another week or two for any color change.

"Long Term Outlook" (Updated 9/13)
The long term weather pattern equals some very interesting weather in store for the entire east coast, but especially for the Northeast and Middle Atlantic. A very amplified pattern looks likely as we start towards the end of the month. Latest ECMWF and GFS runs indicate a large and expansive western ridge with the PNA spiking to positive 2. This will allow a deep trough to form over the east coast. A few GFS runs dig the H85 0C line down through the southern Middle Atlantic towards the end of the period. But before everyone goes jumping to conclusions, the GFS has a definite bias outside of 180hrs of over-amplifying the pattern. Therefore an expansive cold deck like the GFS shows is unlikely. But what is evident is a more moderate approach similar to the ECMWF with a weaker trough, but still well below normal air. Therefore I think we can begin taking a look at frost and freeze potential towards the end of the month especially for locations north of interstate 80. So when looking at long term computer models run to run do not analyze the exact placement of the 850mb thermals, but take a look at the more pattern approach in the 500mb range with jet stream flows. All in all a cool end to the month is likely with the cold air entering the region next weekend as a cold front moves through Saturday. Highs towards the beginning of next week will likely be in the upper 60s with lows in the low to mid 40s with areas north of I-80 with highs in the low 60s and lows in the 30s. The GFS insists on a series of waves of low pressure up the trough axis through next week, but for now I will leave the forecast dry. In any case both the GFS and ECMWF produce a decent amount of rain through the end of the month with the GFS towards excessive amounts over 5inches in the next two week period. I must say I am excited to be finally looking at these types of patterns again. During the Summer I do not use the computer models as much, but by Fall I begin to use everything.

"Current NAO and PNA Predictions"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Monthly Temperature/Precipitation Outlook"(October)(Updated 9/13)
This monthly outlook is going to be posted a bit early this year for October. I never issued a September forecast and now it is the middle of the month so I decided to forecast October instead of the last two weeks in September. Therefore this outlook is a bit lower than normal for confidence. As many probably could guess I am going with a colder than normal October. Long term GFS especially is consistent with trough formation over the east coast and an amplified western ridge. Latest ECMWF is also steadfast, but not amplified with weaker western ridge and a weaker trough, but they are still evident. Teleconnections are a bit more favorable also for a cool pattern across the east coast. It appears the PNA will be spiking highly positive towards October 1 with the NAO and AO more towards neutral. As far as precipitation it appears near normal precipitation is likely with a drier start to the month gradually becoming more active. If the cooler than normal October verifies historical odds definitely favor a colder than normal with quite a bit of snow for the upcoming winter. I guess all we can wish for is not another October 2008 which was extremely mild and again followed by a mild winter. Looking on a more global perspective there is a building dome of cold air over the Arctic towards Greenland and northern Canada. This cold air will continue to build and likely be a catalyst for bits of cold air to break off and surge to the United States with strong cold fronts.

Temperature- As I already mentioned I believe this month will feature cooler than normal temperatures will a general trough over the Middle Atlantic. I think areas north of I-80 will have the colder anomalies as occasional stalled fronts affect southern Pennsylvania, Maryland and Delaware with clouds and precipitation while highs to the north allow radiational cooling for northern Pennsylvania. I am going with a general (-1)-(-2) temperature anomaly for most areas with a generally (0)-(-.5) for the metros of Philadelphia and Washington DC. Frosts and freezes do look likely for most all locations this month with periods of colder than normal weather. Especially early in the month frosts may occur with a high pressure over the region and a trough.

Precipitation- Precipitation looks to be near normal for the month with a dry start to the month as a strong high pressure looks to be over much of the eastern United States in a general benign weather pattern. Towards the middle of the month and the end the active storm track should resume similarities to earlier in the month of September. The subtropical jet will feature periods of storms tracking up the east coast. As far as snowfall, most likely at some point in the month areas, in the lake effect snow belts of Maryland and Pennsylvania will see at least flurries. It is too early to tell whether any system like October 2009 will affect the region.

"Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from Climate Prediction Center for next 30 days"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Here 10mi Northeast of Harrisburg, PA 2009 Statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 8
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 9
Tornado Watches- 0
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 33

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 4
Flood Warnings- 1
Monthly Precipitation- 2.11inches
Yearly Precipitation- 30.95inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 2
Excessive Heat Warnings- 0
90degree Days- 9
Highest Temperature- 95degrees

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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145. originalLT
4:02 AM GMT on September 20, 2009
Last check for me tonight, 49.4 degrees, clear and calm winds.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
144. weathergeek5
3:36 AM GMT on September 20, 2009
I look at the weather stations near me and I guess that this is my temp. they are all in the low 50's
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
143. Zachary Labe
3:02 AM GMT on September 20, 2009
weathergeek5- Wow, you have really dropped since your last report. Now to 49.1degrees which is impressive considering it is 11pm.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
142. weathergeek5
2:59 AM GMT on September 20, 2009
temp down to 51 degrees.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
141. Zachary Labe
2:52 AM GMT on September 20, 2009
TheDawnAwakening- Alright I will be on the lookout for them. I am not too familiar with the 2004 storm synoptic setup.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
140. TheDawnAwakening
2:24 AM GMT on September 20, 2009
There are some strange similarities I will talk about with the 2005 Blizzard and the December 26th, 2004 storms. I will analyze them to my best of abilities in the blog this coming week. Perhaps a winter like this one for this winter?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
139. Zachary Labe
2:16 AM GMT on September 20, 2009
originalLT- Down to 50.6degrees here. Looks like many parts of CT are under a frost advisory tonight.
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138. originalLT
2:09 AM GMT on September 20, 2009
51 degrees here now, clear , wind calm. Looking foreward to your new post Blizz, I'll check it when I get up on Sunday. Thanks.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
137. Zachary Labe
1:25 AM GMT on September 20, 2009
Quoting hurigo:
Thanks Blizz,
Looking forward to seeing your latest tomorrow when I get home from the beach. Have a good evening.

You too, enjoy the beach!!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
136. hurigo
1:15 AM GMT on September 20, 2009
Thanks Blizz,
Looking forward to seeing your latest tomorrow when I get home from the beach. Have a good evening.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
135. Zachary Labe
1:09 AM GMT on September 20, 2009
hurigo- Yep, my typical schedule for blogs is a main one out Sunday morning for a forecast for the next seven days. But typically in winter or during special weather events I add new blogs as necessary. Sometimes during the winter I even issue up to 3 blogs per week depending on how active the storm track is. Actually I am typing up a new blog as we speak which will be posted around 6am tomorrow for a forecast for the coming week.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
134. hurigo
1:01 AM GMT on September 20, 2009
It does seem that there have been a lot of coastal lows. And, I suppose we're about to start n'oyster season soon.

Blizz, forgive me showing my ignorance here, but how often do you plan to put up a new blog. Is it something you endeavor to do weekly, but with special posts when it gets really interesting (and to many of us that means the first frost and snow anticipation).
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
133. Zachary Labe
12:53 AM GMT on September 20, 2009
hurigo- Good evening! Enjoy your tomatoes; I continue to pick tomatoes with romas that taste the best. I wonder how much actual coastal erosion damage has occured within the past month from North Carolina on northward through Long Island with the countless off the coast lows and even weak tropical systems.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
132. hurigo
12:49 AM GMT on September 20, 2009
Hello Blizz, et al.
We're about 10 degrees warmer than ya'll. It is very comfortable and hasn't rained for a few days. I have a tomato almost ready to pick, about five others that may turn red soon, and some of those distinctive delicate yellow blooms indicating more to come. This was the first day in awhile that i did not notice tidal flooding in the usual areas.

I'm headed to the beach tomorrow. Looking forward to watching the dolphins jumping and osprey diving. There is a shark alert, very unpleasant.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
131. Zachary Labe
12:46 AM GMT on September 20, 2009
Already below our average low for Middletown of 56degrees for the date.
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130. weathergeek5
12:42 AM GMT on September 20, 2009
balmy here at 61F
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129. TheRasberryPatch
12:30 AM GMT on September 20, 2009
54.7F here currently
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128. Zachary Labe
12:24 AM GMT on September 20, 2009
56.8degrees here currently.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
127. TheRasberryPatch
10:56 PM GMT on September 19, 2009
what a great day today. except the Terps lost and Penn State played HACC.

thats a great view of Mt Washington, Blizz. i love how it has changed
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
126. TheDawnAwakening
10:30 PM GMT on September 19, 2009
Can't wait Blizzard. I haven't posted in your's or Sully's blog for a while now until today. I have been off the computer for a while because I needed a new antivirus security system installed. It was quite the discussion we had this morning about the potential for this winter.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
125. Zachary Labe
8:34 PM GMT on September 19, 2009
***New weekly weather blog out tomorrow!
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124. Zachary Labe
7:55 PM GMT on September 19, 2009
Yep, looks like Bradford will be at or below 32degrees tonight.
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123. Mason803
7:36 PM GMT on September 19, 2009
here's the frost advisory right on que:

319 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2009



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122. Zachary Labe
3:20 PM GMT on September 19, 2009
TheDawnAwakening- The AAM is the Atmospheric Angular Momentum index which basically measures East West and North South winds on a global level. Simply put AAM forcing with a negative reading represents more of a La Nina type jet stream and currently it is negative. The QBO is currently positive which positive favors La Nina. In fact on the 30mb charts there is some unusual anomalies towards the southern hemisphere. The PDO once again is also not favorable and looks to be negative.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
121. TheDawnAwakening
3:07 PM GMT on September 19, 2009
Blizzard, what does AAM stand for, I found the Southern Oscillation Index an Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. What does it all mean for the Northeast weather?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
120. TheDawnAwakening
2:58 PM GMT on September 19, 2009
Blizzard - I have been too Mt. Washington in the past. It is a very pretty sight, I went up the mountain as far as the coal train would take us with my family when we were up there for Story Land, when I was very young. I still remember that event somewhat, especially when I see the photos. I know that this is always subject to change, but looking at the current conditions in Harwich, MA now compared to September 19th, 2004 the temps look eeriely similar to now.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
119. Zachary Labe
2:50 PM GMT on September 19, 2009
TheDawnAwakening- What I am really enthused about is the NAO this month. September has basically been a negative anomaly for average temperature of the month so far. But when you look at the NAO, it has been been positive. This is excellent as the best scenario is to have a cooler than normal September and October coupled with a positive NAO. Therefore when the cycle of positive NAO is up around November we can get our negative NAO. My issue though is the very unfavorable QBO, SOI, and AAM which hinge more on a La Nina type jet stream than an El Nino. You should definitely try to head up to Mt. Washington sometime while you are up in the area. It is a really interesting place to visit.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
118. TheDawnAwakening
2:48 PM GMT on September 19, 2009
Wow, I am probably 30-60 minutes away from Mt. Washington right now. However I am not going there any time soon.
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117. TheDawnAwakening
2:47 PM GMT on September 19, 2009
The NAO and PNA indexes will be very important this winter. That is something I agree with you on Blizzard. Like the snowy winter will be hinged upon the effects of the -NAO or +NAO and PNA indexes. A +PNA and -NAO are favorable for a blocking type pattern which would bring higher probabilities for snowstorms on the East Coast of the US. +PNA supports a high pressure ridge over the western US supported by a large trough normally tilted negatively which was evident in the pattern for the Blizzard of 2005. Although the blocking pattern did not slow the 2005 blizzard to standards comparable to the 1978 New England Blizzard, it did slow down enough to give SE MA 3 feet of snow. This winter will be very exciting to watch both the NAO and PNA work together. 2005 Blizzard was signaled by a rather modifying western US in temperatures as the large central US high came further southward signifying a warming trend for the Northern Plains and eventually the Midwest as the week after progressed. This was an important factor because this allowed the clipper to tap into a stronger temperature contrast while the Northeast remained within a banana high pressure which was clearly evident on surface maps. THe primary Great Lakes low went as far north as Buffalo, NY but weakened considerably as the transition occurred quickly enough to allow temperatures even on eastern end of Cape Cod, MA to stay at 30F and not any warmer during the height of the Blizzard. A strong low level jet energized the temperature contrast over the Gulf Stream waters which was well above average some 4.5C above average in some areas. This low level jet was signaled through stuve diagrams of CHH the morning of Sunday, January 23rd, 2005 at 7am where 850mb level winds were 55knots and out of the northeast. This jet transported a copious amount of Atlantic Ocean moisture which combined with the Arctic airmass for a blizzard of the century type snowfall. While it is impossible to forecast such a storm out three months in time, I can say that the potential exists for a similar snowfall as we enter what looks to be a weak EL Nino pattern. 2004-2005 winter was not just the Blizzard but another day after Christmas storm on December 26th, 2004 in which 15" of snow fell in my backyard, this was another favorable coastal storm which started off as rain and transitioned quickly within 30 minutes to a wet pasty snow which created power outages even at my house. This storm originated in Texas likely due to the southern placement of the Pacific jet stream or subtropical jet stream bringing snow to as far south Mexico, and New Orleans, LA. Florida saw snow to the north of the storm track, this storm was a precursor of things to come. The tropical hurricane season of 2004 brought we closer to the excitement and thrill I got with following the weather, and that winter season further strengthened that thrill and excitement I received for following, researching and trying to forecast the weather.
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116. Zachary Labe
2:37 PM GMT on September 19, 2009
Looks like an icy morning on Mt. Washington... 23degrees and 90mph gusts
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115. Zachary Labe
2:29 PM GMT on September 19, 2009
TheDawnAwakening- Yep. If we can escape the La Nina lingering effects, which I think we may be able to, then this winter should be snowy with many coastal storms. But on the other hand if La Nina tends to hang around like it did this Summer then we will be back to the same old-same old with that pesky Alaska Vortex.
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114. TheDawnAwakening
2:25 PM GMT on September 19, 2009
The CPC outlook says that the ocean heat content has been on the positive side the last month or so growing from the negative phase it was in the beginning of the year. So that is good news.
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113. Zachary Labe
2:14 PM GMT on September 19, 2009
Mason803- Yep, I am pretty sure Bradford will be darn close to 32 tonight.

TheDawnAwakening- I agree. Did you catch my winter outlook? Link. Anyways I still do not like N PAC water temperatures though as they still hint at Nina type effects. I am thinking by late October early November the jet stream takes a more El Nino approach. But those SSTs are a big concern of mine growing slightly larger. This current El Nino just is not typical.
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112. TheDawnAwakening
2:00 PM GMT on September 19, 2009
Snowy winter in store for the Northeast?

Back in the winter of 2004-2005 the Northeastern part of the country experienced quite the snowy conditions snow lovers love to experience. On January 22, 23 2005 SE New England in the not so favored regions for heavy snowfall received their first blizzard in 7-8 years dating back to 1997 April Fool's Day Blizzard according to the NWS. 3 feet of snow feel in many areas of the SOuth and North Shores of Boston and Cape Cod, MA. This storm featured a lot of mesoscale banding which is why there was a large range of accumulations from one town to another. An example: Harwich, MA my town received 35" while a few towns to the west in Barnstable, MA received 20" school was out for a week and it was hard getting to places the first few days afterwards. Also there was hurricane force gusts and a 42.7mb drop in 24 hours occurred with the buoy SE of Nantucket, MA dropping to 980mb.

Anyways why do I bring this up, well currently we are in a cooling trend of the ENSO multivaritive Index perhaps trending to a warming singaling that a transition to an EL Nino is occuring which was found in 2005. SSTs over the eastern Pacific equatorial region was not cooling, or warming substantial indicating a weak phase or transition between the La Nina and El Nino. I believe we are currently undergoing a progressive transition into an El Nino phase therefore supporting a dislodged pacific jet stream which will be positioned further south perhaps allowing the polar jet to come further south as well at times. If these were to hook up a little more frequently this winter we could have a rather snowy winter. The cycles are due to bring us some snowy weather as well. Back in 2005, January experienced a rather warmer than normal Gulf Stream to the south, and this year it is no different at this time. This could signify something we have all been waiting for, the Blizzard of 2005 occurred during a weak El Nino transition. Perhaps a blizzard is in the cards this winter.
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111. Mason803
1:55 PM GMT on September 19, 2009
Quoting Blizzard92:
Mason803- Uh, I do not know, ha. I wonder why CTP has not pulled the plug on issuing a frost advisory for Warren, McKean, Potter, and Tioga.

not sure. they mention areas reaching the mid to upper 30's tonight with 32f in the coldest spots in their discussion but the offical forecast only calls for lows around 40. they will change it at the 3pm update like they usually do. lol

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110. Zachary Labe
1:45 PM GMT on September 19, 2009
Mason803- Uh, I do not know, ha. I wonder why CTP has not pulled the plug on issuing a frost advisory for Warren, McKean, Potter, and Tioga.
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109. Mason803
1:37 PM GMT on September 19, 2009
49 for a low for me. KBFD hit 35 this morning. now if they hit freezing tom. morning it will be sept 20th. I guessed the 18th and blizzard92 guessed the 22th. who wins?
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108. Zachary Labe
1:34 PM GMT on September 19, 2009
Low of 52 here, but that is because winds never decoupled. Tonight should be much colder.
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107. TheRasberryPatch
11:00 AM GMT on September 19, 2009
A low of 48.5F this morning. a bit cool walking out to the paper. i love the forecast for the next couple of days, though
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106. Zachary Labe
11:47 PM GMT on September 18, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- There are a lot of unresolved issues concerning the trough and ridge placement. The placement of a few of these features will cause problems.

shoreacres- Thanks! Yea that is a nice website that provides excellent information especially in the winter for us northerners. It is that time of year too where I become a blog hermit in a sense I do not get around visiting everyone on WU. Summer allows for more calm patterns in the weather allowing me to make my pitstops, but by October things start getting real active here in the Northeast and that is a non-stop train through March.
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105. shoreacres
9:07 PM GMT on September 18, 2009

So, it's Friday afternoon and it's been a tough week and I finally said, "Oh, heck. I'm going to go pick up a latte and mess around the blogs a bit while everyone assumes I'm somewhere else" - LOL.

I was going through your links and found the metropolitan meteograms. Checked out the Houston GPS page and that is just awesome!
I haven't figured everything out, but a little study and google out to sort it out pretty well. If I hit a wall I'll just come and ask!

Thanks for providing some things I never, ever would have found by myself. That page actually looks like a godsend for folks who can't read the charts themselves worth a darn.
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104. TheRasberryPatch
8:54 PM GMT on September 18, 2009
what seems to be the problem with next week Blizz? are there that many variables? that Low down in the south have any impact on us or does it just fizzle out?
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103. Zachary Labe
7:21 PM GMT on September 18, 2009
NEwxguy- Ugh, I am not looking forward to next week. Looks like a forecasting nightmare along with unseasonable warm air that I just do not feel like having. Severe weather may be common in central plains while very warm air funnels up the east coast with diurnal rain showers under a high moisture environment.

Fshhead- Haha, Thanks!!!
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102. Fshhead
7:16 PM GMT on September 18, 2009
Hey Blizz,
I am sure I am late to the party but, CONGRATS on becoming a featured blogger!!!!!!!!
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101. NEwxguy
7:14 PM GMT on September 18, 2009
Blizz,it is a beautiful day,whats your take on next week,Still looks like a cutoff low mid level setting in up in the midwest.
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100. Zachary Labe
7:03 PM GMT on September 18, 2009
Good afternoon all!!! Beautiful day out there!
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99. originalLT
4:10 PM GMT on September 18, 2009
Yeah, you are right, I should have kept a record, especially with my interests in weather, it would have been interesting, I would have by now 25 years of data. Of course we've all heard about the supposed correlation of weather with the thickness of the banding on wooly-bear catapillars, etc.
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98. TheRasberryPatch
3:57 PM GMT on September 18, 2009
i am surprised that through the years you haven't tried to correlate the harvest and the winter. maybe you should start a journal. just sometime to consider for your immediate area, especially should anything happen to the world and you need information. i always think of stuff like that. just my bit of craziness i guess. lol
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97. originalLT
3:30 PM GMT on September 18, 2009
Thanks Rasberry, I thought it might be such.About eating them, you're right too, I tell that to my two dogs, one of them loves to carry an acorn in his mouth-he doesn't eat it but carries it around, he seems to be proud of himself, of course I take it right away from him, swallowing it could not be good.
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96. TheRasberryPatch
3:13 PM GMT on September 18, 2009
original - i think it is just a cycle. i think if it was a precursor for the weather to come there would be reports all the time about the acorn harvest. its ashame that you can't eat them.
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95. originalLT
2:56 PM GMT on September 18, 2009
Just a thought Blizz and everyone , I have a huge Oak tree next to my house and driveway, this year we are being bombarded with huge acorns, VS last year when we hardly had any. I was just wondering if there is any correlation with the amount and size of acorns in a tree with the weather, or is this just a natural cycle of the tree itself where one year it might be plentiful and the next sparse? Unfortunatly I never kept a record of such, Ive been living in my house since 1984, would have been nice if I did.
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