Gearing Up for the 2012 ATL Season

By: BahaHurican , 4:37 PM GMT on May 13, 2012

In a little under three weeks, the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season will officially get underway.

With neutral - warm conditions expected to prevail in the ENSO and a weak El Nino likely to form by the end of the year, most forecasters are predicting an average to slightly above average season in terms of the number of named storms. However, several indicators suggest that those systems which form are more likely to impact land, due to the likelihood of formation along the western perimeters of the basin [that is, within the Caribbean or the Gulf of Mexico, or along the eastern seaboard of the US, west of 60N]. Additionally, instability appears likely to be greater this year than last, at least potentially giving rise to more long-lived and powerful systems.

Thus, while this season may not be as busy as last year's, the potential for "drama and trauma" in the basin is as high as it ever is.

Taking a retrospective look at the last ten years of Atlantic tropical cyclones, it appears obvious that The Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands are very much in the thick of things track-wise. Since 2002, the archipelago been impacted by at least 15 TCs, at least 6 of them hurricanes and at least 3 of those majors.

Year/ Storm/ Status/ Area impacted
2003/ Mindy/ TS/ Turks and Caicos
2004/ Frances/ MH/ Turks and Caicos, Bahamas
2004/ Jeanne/ MH/ Bahamas
2005/ Katrina/ TS/ Bahamas
2005/ Rita/ TS/ Bahamas
2005/ Wilma/ MH/ Bahamas
2005/ Alpha/ TS/ Bahamas, Turks and Caicos
2007/ Noel/ TS/ Bahamas, Turks and Caicos
2008/ Hanna/ H/ Bahamas, Turks and Caicos
2008/ Ike/ MH/ Bahamas, Turks and Caicos
2010/ Bonnie/ TS/ Bahamas, Turks and Caicos
2010/ Nicole/ TS/ Bahamas
2010/ Tomas/ TS/ Bahamas, Turks and Caicos
2011/ Bret/ TS/ Bahamas
2011/ Emily/ TS/ Bahamas, Turks and Caicos
2011/ Irene/ MH/ Bahamas, Turks and Caicos

That's why Bahamians and Turks Islanders should not relax their guard. Instead, now is a great time to run through the hurricane preparation list, including checking out the shutters and the roof, as well as beginning to stock the hurricane supply chest.

When the season begins, I will be updating this blog as often as I can, especially during events which threaten our area.

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6. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
10:43 AM GMT on August 25, 2015
BahaHurican has created a new entry.
5. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:42 AM GMT on January 12, 2014
Ian is forecast to stay on the east side of the dateline away from New Zealand.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 62 Comments: 54034
4. pcola57
3:13 PM GMT on September 01, 2013
Thanks for the updated blog Baha..
Good observations..
GB and Peace.. :)
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 7058
3. hydrus
1:40 PM GMT on July 14, 2013
Quoting 423. hydrus:
I wonder if the Mayaimi,s are distant relatives of the Maya..My theory is that the ancient Florida tribes came from Central and South America.

Quite possible, this last part is... the Arawaks living in the Bahamas when Colombus arrived had migrated up the Antillean chain from S America, and we have more recent evidence of how easy it is to cross the FL straits from Cuba. In the early 1800s Seminole Indians who settled the west coast of Andros made their crossing via canoe, so travel both ways is definitely possible. As to the relationship between the Miami Indians and the Maya - well, that could likely be easily determined by DNA analyis.

Thank you for this information. Great stuff..I would like to talk more on this someday. I am not able to chat much. Mom is gravely ill, Dad is of an advanced age, and 12 Irish Wolfhounds to take care of...I,m swamped..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 27403
2. GeorgiaStormz
12:49 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
alberto, beryl, and chris is fast approaching..
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9875
1. BrickellBreeze
6:13 PM GMT on May 13, 2012
Wow. 6 Hits in the past two years
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723

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