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Hurricane Katia: Possible analogue storms
By: AstroHurricane001 , 1:37 PM GMT on August 31, 2011
Tropical storm Katia formed last night in the Cape Verde region. As of 9:30 am EDT August 31, she is close to hurricane strength.
Examining historical patterns
In past seasons, a strong hurricane has often followed behind another one that affected the US East coast. The following tracks may provide some analogy to Katia's future trajectory. Here are the criteria below.
The first storm hit either the Bahamas, North Carolina or the American Northeast as a category one or stronger hurricane, either by direct landfall or very close pass. The storm must have caused at least $USD 4 billion (4,000,000,000) in damages, in 2011 dollars (inflation-adjusted).
Similar to Katia's predicted track, the second storm must have met at least four of the following five criteria:
-A Cape Verde long-track hurricane forming east of 50°W.
-Reached at least category three strength on SSHS.
-Formed within ten days (maximum 15 d) of the formation of the first storm [as TS - 2nd storm only; difference denotes TD formations].
-Track is generally east-to-west.
-The storm became a hurricane in the Main Development Region (10°-20°N, 20°-85°W).
Track map colors: light blue TS, light yellow C1, light yellow-orange C2, light orange C3, orange C4, red C5. In any year, retired storms go first.
The following storm tracks were detected:
Hurricane Ivan [retired], Sep 2004 (El Nino Modoki) - following behind cat. 4 Frances [retired], which hit the Bahamas, by 8 days:
Hurricane Karl, Sep 2004 (El Nino Modoki) - following behind cat. 3 Jeanne [retired], which hit the Bahamas, by 3 days:
Hurricane Gert, Sep 1999 (La Nina) - following behind cat. 4 Floyd [retired], which hit the Bahamas and North Carolina, by 4 days:
Hurricane Hortense [retired], Sep 1996 (La Nina) - following behind cat. 3 Fran [retired], which hit North Carolina, by 11 days:
Hurricane Frederic [retired], Aug-Sep 1979 (neutral ENSO), - following behind cat. 5 David [retired], which hit the Bahamas, by 4 days:
Remember, though, that even a hurricane like Igor of 2010 can be dangerous, taking a track missing the Lesser Antilles but hitting Bermuda and Newfoundland both at cat. 1, and getting retired:
For anyone unfamiliar, a hurricane name gets "retired" when an affected country requests it and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) deems it to be sufficiently destructive or deadly. However, not everyone is always happy with the results.
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.