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fxus64 kmob 212058 
afdmob 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama 
358 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2019 


Near term /now through Friday/...a sharp upper ridge over Texas and 
the Central Plains states will shift east to the north central 
Gulf states by midday Sat then move east of the region by late Sat 
afternoon. Near the surface a broad region of high pressure 
mostly inline or coupled with the upper ridge also shifts east 
over the north central Gulf states on Fri leading to more dry 
pleasant weather across the forecast area through Fri afternoon. 
For tonight believe enough cold air moving in from the west 
northwest ahead of the deep ridge to the west will allow for 
enough mixing to help keep overnight lows near current MOS values. 
The coolest spots tonight will be over western sections of the 
forecast area mainly well inland from the coast were surface winds 
diminish to 4 knots or less. For Fri expect sunny skies with 
better subsidence in the boundary layer especially inland from the 
coast possible leading to highs a tad above the current MOS 
numbers along with a good seabreeze generating along the coast due 
to the warmer inland temps combined with cool near shore sea 
surface temps. 


Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s to lower 40s for most 
inland areas, generally along and north of the I-10 corridor and the 
middle 40s to lower 50s further south to the immediate coast. Highs 
Fri will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s for most inland areas 
and the middle to upper 60s near the immediate coast, due to the 
cooler sea surface temps and onshore flow during the afternoon. 
32/ee 




Short term /Friday night through Sunday night/...a dry northwest 
mid level flow will persist across our forecast area Friday 
night, before shortwave ridging aloft builds eastward across the 
region on Saturday. Surface high pressure will meanwhile build 
eastward across the north central Gulf Coast through Saturday 
afternoon. Dry weather will continue across our region with this 
pattern through Saturday. Lows Friday night will range from around 
40 degrees to the mid 40s over the interior to the upper 40s to 
around 50 near the coast. Highs Saturday afternoon should reach 
near 70 along the coast and in the lower to mid 70s over inland 
portions of the area. 


The flow pattern aloft becomes more zonal across the region late 
this weekend. A shortwave trough embedded in the flow will 
translate across northern portions of MS/Alabama during the day Sunday, 
before a more amplified shortwave tracks approaches the MS and Tennessee 
Valley regions late Sunday night. Deeper moisture and ascent 
associated with these next features should remain focused to the 
north and northwest of our forecast area Sunday and Sunday night, 
but may need to watch our far northwest zones (northern Wayne/ 
Choctaw counties) for a possible low chance of rain approaching 
toward early Monday morning. For now, we have left a dry forecast 
intact through Sunday night. Lows Saturday night should range in 
the mid 40s to around 50 over the interior, and lower to mid 50s 
near the coast. Highs Sunday should range from around 70 to the 
lower 70s near the immediate coast to the mid 70s over interior 
areas. /21 




Long term /Monday through Thursday/...the upper level trough axis 
will progress eastward across the Tennessee Valley and adjacent portions 
of MS/al/GA Monday into Monday night. An associated cold front 
should also push across our forecast Monday evening into late 
Monday night/early Tuesday morning. Ascent along the trough axis 
and frontal zone will bring a chance of rain showers to our region 
during the Monday afternoon and evening time frame. A lingering 
low chance of showers may persist over southern/coastal areas into 
late Monday night depending on the timing of the cold front. 
Instability will be sufficient for a few thunderstorms Monday 
afternoon and evening, but meager MLCAPE values of 500 j/kg or 
less and modest low level shear currently looks to keep any strong 
to severe storm threat very isolated/limited. A dry northwest flow 
aloft returns Tuesday and Wednesday, before another shortwave 
ridge aloft looks to follow for Thursday. We will keep a dry 
forecast going through the latter part of the extended period. 
Monday looks to be the warmest day of the week with highs in the 
mid to upper 70s. Temperatures otherwise remain seasonably mild 
through the rest of the week. /21 


&& 


Marine...a light to moderate westerly wind flow will persist over 
the marine area through late Fri as a broad surface ridge of high 
pressure over the Central Plains states slowly builds east. A better 
southwest component can be expected near the coast Fri afternoon due 
to afternoon seabreeze effects. A light southerly flow is expected 
over the weekend as high pressure to the north shifts east to the 
eastern Seaboard with the highest winds likely occurring near the 
coast and over inland bays and sounds due to good seabreeze 
circulations. A better onshore flow is expected by early next week 
as high pressure to the north continues to shift east. 32/ee 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Mobile 44 72 45 74 50 74 56 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 40 
Pensacola 47 70 48 70 52 71 59 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 30 
Destin 51 68 51 68 54 70 60 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 20 
Evergreen 42 71 42 76 45 76 53 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 50 
Waynesboro 40 71 41 74 45 74 53 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 50 
Camden 41 69 41 74 45 76 53 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 50 
Crestview 42 72 43 76 45 76 53 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 30 


&& 


Mob watches/warnings/advisories... 
Alabama...none. 
Florida...none. 
MS...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 






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