000 
fxus62 kffc 221842 
afdffc 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia 
242 PM EDT Wed may 22 2019 


Short term /tonight through Thursday night/... 
obviously the primary feature impacting the region through the short 
term forecast period remains the strong upper ridging and warm 
temperatures. Just enough moisture and instability hanging around 
the northern and eastern periphery of the forecast area to keep a 
mention of at least isolated diurnal convection. This is being 
aided, at least to some small degree, by a weak backdoor front in 
the east this afternoon, and possibly by a glancing blow from a weak 
short wave sweeping into the central Appalachians/mid-Atlantic 
coastal region on the downhill side of the ridge Thursday 
afternoon. 


20 


Long term /Friday through Wednesday/... 
only tweaks to the long term based on the latest guidance. 


Bdl 


Previous discussion... 
hot and dry is really all there is to say about the extended 
forecast. The strong upper ridge will be in full force at the onset 
of the extended period with near-record or record 500mb heights for 
the month of may. As such, temperatures will be warming well into 
the mid-to-upper 90s Friday and continue to gradually warm into 
Memorial Day weekend. Widespread upper 90s to lower 100s can be 
expected into Memorial Day and beyond as the Southeast Ridge hangs 
firm. All-time record may highs will thus still be in play. The 
"good" news is forecast heat indices are running below heat advisory 
criteria despite the very warm air temperatures courtesy of 
afternoon dewpoints dipping in the upper 50s to near 60. Regardless, 
it will still feel quite hot, especially for late may. 


While the upper ridge will flatten a bit into early next week, there 
is little sign of any significant pattern change. While the GFS does 
bring a front into the area late next week, the European model (ecmwf) holds the 
ridge firm through the coming week. Given the difficulty of breaking 
such an entrenched ridge, am inclined to believe the European model (ecmwf). 


For reference, the all-time record highs for may follow directly below, 
and the daily records are in the climate section below. 


All-time record highs for may: 
atlanta: 97 degrees f in 1914 and 1941 
athens: 100 degrees f in 1918 and 1926 
columbus: 100 degrees f in 1916 and 1937 
macon: 99 degrees f in 1898, 1953, and 1967 


Rain shower 


&& 


Climate... 




Records for 05-22 


Max temperature min temperature 
station high low high low 
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- 
katl 94 1941 48 1883 70 1996 43 1883 
1938 1941 
kahn 99 1941 57 1967 70 1983 45 1993 
kcsg 99 1933 69 1967 74 1902 45 1954 
kmcn 97 1962 66 1967 71 1987 43 1993 
1898 1983 






Records for 05-23 


Max temperature min temperature 
station high low high low 
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- 
kahn 99 1941 57 1967 69 1953 45 2002 
katl 95 1941 56 1967 71 1941 40 1883 
kcsg 99 1933 59 1967 73 1983 49 1954 
1915 
kmcn 98 1956 56 1967 72 1938 42 2002 
1941 1915 






Records for 05-24 


Max temperature min temperature 
station high low high low 
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- 
kmcn 97 1960 65 1899 73 2000 46 1931 
kahn 96 1912 65 1966 71 1998 42 1931 
katl 95 1996 60 1895 72 2000 45 1892 
kcsg 99 1933 73 1977 74 1996 47 1892 
1933 






Records for 05-25 


Max temperature min temperature 
station high low high low 
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- 
kahn 100 1926 65 1979 71 2004 46 2013 
1956 1979 
kcsg 98 1912 71 1979 75 2000 51 1979 
1956 1931 
kmcn 97 2000 65 1923 74 2000 49 2013 
1960 1979 
1953 
katl 93 1960 63 1895 72 2004 46 1979 
1953 1953 






Records for 05-26 


Max temperature min temperature 
station high low high low 
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- 
kahn 99 1911 63 1963 72 2004 41 1979 
katl 94 1936 64 1923 73 1989 43 1979 
1916 1901 
1911 
kcsg 98 1933 75 1961 74 2000 47 1979 
1906 1989 
kmcn 98 1962 69 1901 72 1921 49 1979 






Records for 05-27 


Max temperature min temperature 
station high low high low 
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- 
kahn 97 1916 70 1997 71 1991 40 1961 
1961 
katl 95 1916 62 1901 75 1916 41 1961 
kcsg 98 1916 65 1901 76 2012 45 1961 
1911 
kmcn 99 1953 67 1901 74 1991 45 1961 
1953 






Records for 05-28 


Max temperature min temperature 
station high low high low 
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- 
kahn 97 1914 65 1997 71 2004 43 1925 
1934 1982 
1916 
katl 94 1941 63 1997 72 1991 42 1961 
1915 
kcsg 100 1916 68 1997 79 1911 43 1961 
kmcn 99 1967 63 1934 74 1991 46 1961 
1924 


&& 


Aviation... 
18z update... 
VFR conditions are expected to predominate across the majority of 
the forecast area through this forecast period. Local to isolated 
areas of MVFR or lower visibilities are possible between 06z and 
14z, however no significant impacts are expected at the taf sites. 
An area of MVFR to IFR ceilings is expected to push west into the 
far eastern portion of the forecast area early Thursday. It is 
likely that we will see at least a few hours of MVFR or lower 
ceilings at kahn between 10z and 16z. South to west winds 4-10kt 
will diminish to 4kt or less and become southeasterly between 00z 
and 06z. Winds increase again, generally 4-8kt, and become south 
southwest by 15/16z Thursday. A few, isolated, showers or 
thunderstorms are possible across northern and eastern portions of 
the forecast area this afternoon. Coverage to sparse to include 
in the tafs at this time. 


//Atl confidence...18z update... 


High. 


20 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Athens 68 91 69 95 / 20 10 10 0 
Atlanta 70 92 70 93 / 5 20 10 5 
Blairsville 62 86 63 88 / 10 20 10 10 
Cartersville 68 93 69 93 / 5 20 10 5 
Columbus 70 95 71 97 / 5 10 0 0 
Gainesville 67 90 68 92 / 20 20 10 5 
Macon 68 94 69 96 / 10 10 0 0 
Rome 67 93 68 94 / 5 10 10 5 
Peachtree City 67 93 68 94 / 5 10 10 5 
Vidalia 70 94 71 97 / 5 10 0 0 


&& 


Ffc watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 



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