fxus64 kbmx 200527 

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama 
1227 am CDT sun Oct 20 2019 

for 06z aviation. 


Short term... 
/updated at 0400 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019/ 

We are getting beneficial rains today thanks to moisture from 
Post-tropical Nestor with the best rains in the east half of the 
state closer to Nestor. As what remains of Nestor moves northeast 
across Florida and into southeast Georgia, rain chances will 
decrease across central Alabama. Temperatures will not vary 
greatly from the highs today to overnight lows. Low stratus and 
rain has kept our readings down for today, and extensive cloud 
cover is expected to remain tonight. Lingering low level moisture 
and a wet ground from rains will allow for some patchy fog after 
midnight as well. 

Timing and impact areas remain the same for our marginal severe 
potential for late Monday into the pre-dawn hours Tuesday with 
straight-line winds and a brief tornado possible in convective 
activity ahead of the front. I did increase rain chances for 
Monday afternoon with models coming into agreement better on 
precipitation in general. 


Long term... 
/updated at 0351 am CDT Sat Oct 19 2019/ 
Sunday through Saturday. 

Between weather systems, height rises will take place on Sunday as 
a significant trough digs toward the Central Plains. A dry and warm 
afternoon is expected under the influence of southerly flow. 
Temperatures should reach the upper 70s to the lower 80s. 

Pressure falls will take place Sunday night into Monday across the 
span of the Mississippi River valley as a powerful jet carves out a 
deep trough centered over the upper Midwest. A 40-50 kt low-level 
jet should be located along the MS river at 12z Monday with upper 
60s to near 70 degree dewpoints advecting northward across the 
arklamiss. Most of our forecast area will remain dry through the 
early afternoon, but a band of showers and storms will move in 
from the west during the afternoon and evening. The low-level jet 
is expected to weaken into the 35-40 kt range as it moves into our 
northwest counties. However, with SBCAPE of 500-1000 j/kg, there 
appears to be a marginal threat for isolated damaging winds and 
perhaps a brief tornado. 

The entrainment of a subtropical shortwave into the larger-scale 
trough may complicate the convective evolution for areas farther 
southeast. This feature may shift the strongest forcing and lift 
toward our southeastern counties, causing a localized minimum in 
the low-level jet and a lull in convection across the middle of 
the area. Additionally, the subtropical shortwave could cause a 
small-scale enhancement of the low level jet across our southeast 
counties Monday night. Therefore, the marginal risk for isolated 
damaging winds and a brief tornado will be expanded to cover all 
of our forecast area. Forecast confidence is low with this system, 
but an upgrade to a slight risk may become necessary. 

Cooler and much drier air will move into the region on Tuesday 
behind a cold front with high pressure in control through early 
Thursday. Another large trough is expected to take shape Thursday 
night and Friday to our northwest, leading to the potential for 
widespread rain for Thursday night through Saturday. 



06z taf discussion. 

MVFR cigs and visible restrictions have started to develop across the 
area. Expect IFR conditions to develop overnight and continue 
through the early morning hours Sunday. Obs in MS and Georgia are 
already showing these IFR conditions, so expect Alabama to follow in 
the next few hours. Conditions improve Sunday afternoon with visible 
clearing and cigs rising to VFR for the remainder of the period. 



Fire weather... 

Post tropical Nestor will be responsible for bands of light to 
moderate rain for the remainder of this afternoon and evening 
across the eastern half of the area. Dry conditions will return 
for Sunday, but a cold front will bring showers and storms for 
Monday afternoon into Monday night. 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Gadsden 78 59 80 53 70 / 0 10 70 90 10 
Anniston 79 61 80 55 70 / 0 10 60 90 10 
Birmingham 80 64 80 54 71 / 0 20 70 90 10 
Tuscaloosa 82 65 81 53 71 / 0 20 80 90 10 
Calera 80 63 80 54 70 / 0 10 70 90 10 
Auburn 79 61 80 60 71 / 0 10 50 90 20 
Montgomery 82 63 82 60 73 / 0 10 60 80 20 
Troy 81 61 83 60 73 / 0 10 60 80 20 


Bmx watches/warnings/advisories/... 

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