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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida 
315 am EDT Thu may 23 2019 


Near term [through today]... 


The deep layer ridge that has been well advertised continues to 
build westward today with surface high pressure centered off the 
Carolina coast also moving west. Hires guidance is hinting at a 
weakness moving under the ridge, with the rap actually analyzing a 
bit of a messy surface pattern. With the weak wave moving from the 
east, a few showers may move into the Easter regions this 
afternoon. At the same time, a weak area of surface high pressure is 
centered off the Panhandle coast, with more of a south-southwesterly 
flow, which could bring in some showers from the west as well. Both 
are supported by relatively "strong" isentropic lift and enough 
moisture around 850mb to sustain a few updrafts. A rumble of thunder 
can't be ruled out thanks to a relatively deep layer of instability 
that will become surface based by the afternoon. 


Noted that dew points mixed out yesterday much more than guidance 
has indicated, which is a known issue and therefore, bumped the dew 
points down a deg or two today. Kept the highs today similar to what 
we have had and about a deg warmer, in the lower to mid 90s 
with heat index values a deg or two higher than actual temps. 




Short term [tonight through saturday]... 


With the mid-level ridge building overhead and near record 500 
hpa heights, temperatures will continue to increase into the first 
half of the weekend. Both moisture and instability will be 
limited, with perhaps an isolated shower or rumble of thunder at 
most associated with the sea-breeze during the afternoon and 
evening, probabilities too low to include in the forecast. 


High temperatures on Friday in the low to mid 90s, with upper 90s 
to around the century mark on Saturday, with middle to upper 80s 
along the Gulf Coast. 


The combination of heat and humidity will lead to building heat 
indices/apparent temperatures, from 95-100 degrees on Friday to 
100-105 on Saturday. 




Long term [saturday night through thursday]... 


The unseasonably hot and humid stretch of weather is expected to 
continue into at least Tuesday, with minor relief possible by 
Wednesday. Confidence in excessive heat through Monday is high, 
with maximum temperatures each day ranging from the mid 90s to 
around 100 degrees, and heat indices/apparent temperatures from 
around 105 to 108 in spots. The only relief will be along the 
immediate Gulf Coast, where temperatures will be slightly lower. 
Temperatures and humidity levels may lower slightly on Tuesday 
and Wednesday, but still well above average, with highs in the 
mid-90s to near 100 degrees and heat indices/apparent temps of 
100-105. 


The last official 100 degree days (measured at each airport) 
for the following areas are as follows: 


Dothan, al: July 1, 2012 
Valdosta, ga: August 23, 2014 
Panama City, fl: August 26, 2014 
Tallahassee, fl: August 23, 2016 
Albany, ga: June 25, 2018 


Record high temperatures and record high minimum temperatures 
at Tallahassee, fl: 


May 25: 100 in 1953 
high min: 73 in 1938 


May 26: 100 in 2012 
high min: 73 in 1951 


May 27: 102 in 1953 
high min: 71 in 1972 


The combination of heat and humidity is expected to reach excessive, 
unhealthy levels. In particular, this event is early in the season 
when people are less acclimated to the heat, and this is expected to 
be a long duration event. These factors tend to exacerbate any heat 
related illness. The most vulnerable populations include the 
elderly, homeless, and those with medical conditions, especially 
where there is a lack of air conditioning. With the Holiday 
weekend, outdoor event goers will also have an increased risk for 
heat related illness. There is also a larger than normal 
population without air conditioning in areas recovering from 
Hurricane Michael. Given all these factors, a heat advisory will 
likely be needed for portions of the area, even if we fall just 
short of the 108 degree criteria. Please check on the elderly, 
homeless, those with medical conditions, and pets. Find an air 
conditioned place. For heat safety tips, www.Weather.Gov/safety/heat. 


Cannot rule out an isolated shower and thunderstorm each day 
during the afternoon/evening in association with the sea-breeze 
fronts given the instability and lack of a cap, but moisture is 
very limited, so a dry forecast given probability of precip is 
very low. 


&& 


Aviation... 
[through 06z friday] 


Winds generally less than 10 knots expected at the taf sites with 
VFR conditions. Sct050 may go broken briefly this afternoon before 
diminishing with sunset. A few showers may pop up during the 
afternoon but are too isolated to include in the tafs. 


&& 


Marine... 


Southeast winds will peak this morning and again on Friday morning 
beyond 20 nautical miles, ranging from 15 to 20 knots, with 10 to 
15 knots along the near shore waters. Wave heights will range from 
1 to 2 feet along the near shore waters to 2 to 4 feet beyond 20 
nautical miles. More tranquil boating conditions are expected late 
Friday thru Monday with winds 5 to 10 knots and seas 1 to 2 feet. 
Outside of an isolated shower at night, dry conditions are 
expected. 


&& 


Fire weather... 


A few showers are possible today in the eastern parts of the SW 
Georgia counties as well as parts of southeast Alabama and the central Florida 
Panhandle. These will be very isolated and not provide any relief 
to the dry conditions. Winds will generally be light and variable 
with transport winds only around 10 mph. Mixing heights will rise 
above 5000ft by the afternoon allowing for good dispersion. 


&& 


Hydrology... 


There are no flooding concerns. Precipitation over the next several 
days will be well below average, with most locations expected to 
remain dry. Overall, this will result in decreasing stream flows, 
with much of the region below normal. 


&& 


Spotter information statement... 


Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always 
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they 
occur by calling the office or tweeting US @nwstallahassee. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 


Tallahassee 95 68 97 71 99 / 10 0 0 0 10 
Panama City 87 73 89 74 91 / 10 0 0 0 0 
Dothan 93 70 96 71 98 / 20 0 10 0 10 
Albany 94 71 96 74 100 / 0 0 10 0 10 
Valdosta 94 66 96 70 99 / 20 0 0 0 10 
Cross City 93 65 95 68 96 / 10 0 0 0 0 
Apalachicola 86 72 87 72 89 / 10 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Tae watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
Georgia...none. 
Alabama...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Near term...line 
short term...lf 



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