000 
fxus61 kphi 261911 
afdphi 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mount Holly New Jersey 
311 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 


Synopsis... 
high pressure across the southern states will expand across the 
middle Atlantic tonight through Friday. Low pressure will deepen 
while moving across southern Canada this weekend. It will cause a 
cold front to drop across the area later Saturday. More high 
pressure will return for next week. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
afternoon temperatures have climbed just above seasonal normals, but 
dewpoints are mainly in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Thus, apparent temps 
are right around actual air temps. 


On radar, showers and thunderstorms are developing across central PA 
and New York. They are moving east. A sea breeze has developed and it's 
moving westward. 


The said showers and thunderstorms, associated with a S/W, will 
track through our far northern zones this evening. They will arrive 
around 6 PM and persist for several hours as they continue to track 
east. Isolated to scattered pops remain in the grids. 


Any shower threat should diminish by midnight. Skies will be mostly 
clear for the remainder of the overnight. Lows in most spots will be 
in the 60s. Some of the Poconos should see upper 50s. The highly 
urbanized locals shouldn't drop below 70. 


&& 


Short term /Thursday/... 
the mid-level ridge will build some the second half of tonight and 
into Thursday morning. It then becomes mainly zonal during the day. 
Surface high pressure will strengthen at the same time. As a result, 
skies will be mostly sunny on Thursday and temperatures will be a 
few degrees warmer than today. Apparent temps will be touch warmer, 
but not as hot as what's expected as we head into the weekend. Winds 
will be light, less than 10 mph, and mainly from the west. The coast 
will see a sea breeze develop. It should push inland. 


&& 


Long term /Thursday night through Wednesday/... 
the main story for the long term will be the continuation of the 
above normal temperatures for much of the period. Highs Friday 
and Saturday will be in the low to mid 90s across most areas 
with only the higher elevations of the Poconos and perhaps some 
shore areas escaping the 90s. Humidity levels will be moderate, 
so apparent temperatures will be nearing 100 across Delmarva and 
the urban corridor. The heat will temper some Sunday after a 
cold front crosses the area. Highs Sunday (and monday) will be 
about 5 degrees cooler than Saturday. The 90s will return 
towards the middle of next week, appropriate for early July. 


Precipitation will be rather scattered most days Fri thru sun. 
The cold front (sat night) will tend to try to focus some 
activity, but we kept pops at only slgt chc or chc for now with 
no good indication of which areas may be more favorable. 
Mon/Tue will be dry for the most part with high pressure moving 
in. More slight chc pops will be here for the middle of next 
week as some weak disturbance begin to move towards the middle 
Atlantic. 




&& 


Aviation /19z Wednesday through Monday/... 
the following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg, 
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas. 


Tonight...VFR conditions expected. Southwest winds less than 10 kts 
becoming northwest less than 5 kts. 


Thursday...VFR conditions expected. Northwest/west winds less than 
10 kts. A sea breeze should develop and affect kacy during the mid 
to late afternoon. 


Outlook... 
Thu night...VFR expected. 


Fri thru sun...mostly VFR. Sct tstms with lower ceilings and visibilities 
possible, especially Sat. Night thru Sun morning. 


Sun night/Monday...VFR expected. 


&& 


Marine... 
tonight...sub-sca conditions expected. Seas less than 2 feet. 
Southwest to west winds 10 kts or less. 


Thursday...sub-sca conditions expected. Seas less than 2 feet. 
Northwest winds 10 kts or less in the morning, becoming southeast in 
the afternoon. 


Outlook... 
by in large, sub-Small Craft Advisory expected with scattered showers and tstms 
Fri night thru Sunday morning. Higher winds and seas with any 
tstm. 


Rip currents... 


A low risk of rip current development will continue into Thursday 
as winds turn very light and waves in the surf zone diminish to 
only around one foot. 


&& 


Phi watches/warnings/advisories... 
PA...none. 
New Jersey...none. 
Delaware...none. 
Maryland...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...O'Hara 



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