000 
fxus64 kmob 260437 aad 
afdmob 


Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama 
1137 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019 


Discussion...see updated information for land areas and aviation 
discussion below. 


&& 


Update...showers and storms have ended over the land zones and 
late evening update will be to remove pops. /10 


&& 


Aviation... 
06z issuance...front makes passage tonight and brings wind shift 
in its wake. Patches of cigs 4 to 6 kft. Any lingering very 
isolated shra/-tsra shifts southeast out of the area overnight. 
Could see cigs down to MVFR categories by daybreak Tuesday. 
Northwest to north winds Tuesday around 10 kts with occasional 
higher gusts. /10 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 916 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019/ 


Discussion...see updated information for land areas below. 


Update...clusters of convection has been steadily moving 
southeast over The Heart of the forecast area this evening. Some 
of the storms were strong to locally severe, with history of 
producing nickel to quarter size hail respectively. Any severe 
storms late this evening look to be isolated with the main threat 
being hail up to around a quarter size or so. Given the isolated 
coverage, Severe Thunderstorm Watch 34 has been allowed to expire 
at 9 PM and headlines have been removed from zones. /10 


Previous discussion... /issued 625 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019/ 


Discussion...updated for latest aviation discussion below. 


Aviation... 
00z issuance...isolated to scattered convection was dropping 
southeast across central and western Alabama this evening. Main 
impacts from convection appear to be over the far northern zones 
this evening. Front makes passage this evening bringing wind 
shift. Scattered to perhaps broken cigs ranging from 3 to 5 kft. 
Could see cigs down to MVFR categories by daybreak Tuesday. /10 


Previous discussion... /issued 502 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019/ 


Discussion...see updated information for land areas below. 


Update...radar is showing isolated convective clusters dropping 
southeast over central and western Alabama just north of our far 
northern zones. Some of these storms have a history of producing 
damaging winds and hail up to nickel to quarter size. Considering 
convective trends and potential for isolated severe storms to 
bring impacts this evening, the Storm Prediction Center has issued 
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 34 in effect thru 9 PM CDT for much of 
the interior. Zones have been updated to reflect watch headlines. 
/10 


Previous discussion... /issued 337 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019/ 


Near term /now through Tuesday/....a cold front which has been 
approaching from the west this afternoon will advance to just west 
of the I-65 corridor by early this evening, then continues through 
the remainder of the area during the rest of the evening. Isolated 
to scattered convection is expected at the beginning of the period 
along/ahead of the front, coincident with MLCAPE values around 500 
j/kg, which then diminishes early this evening with dry conditions 
prevailing later this evening as instability dissipates. While 
shear values will be low, dry air will be present aloft with wet 
bulb zero values near 9 kft. This environment will maintain a low 
end (primarily marginal risk) potential for severe storm development 
through the early hours (until approximately 8 pm) with the main 
threats from any severe storms that develop being wind gusts to 60 
mph and hail up to quarter size. /29 


Short term /Tuesday night through Thursday night/...by late 
tonight and early Tue the first of two mid level short wave trofs 
will shift east of the forecast area followed by another vigorous 
mid level impulse shifting southeast from the mid MS River Valley to the 
north central Gulf Coast and forecast area through tues night. 
With the lack of sufficient moisture in the boundary layer no 
significant precip is expected with this second round of forcing 
Tue afternoon through early Wed with maybe an isolated shower or 
two forming over extreme northeastern sections of the forecast 
area generally around midnight Tue night. With this pattern most 
clouds will begin to clear by after sunrise on Tue and continue 
through midday followed by better cloudiness in the low to mid 
levels generally moving in from the northwest Tue afternoon and 
early Tue night before exiting to the east southeast late Tue 
night into early Wed as the second mid level system shifts east of 
the forecast area by 12z Wed. For Wed through Thu night a sharp 
mid to upper ridge of high pressure will shift east over the north 
central Gulf Coast region leading to mostly clear skies with lower 
humidity levels. Surface temps will be cooler than seasonal norms 
on Tue and Tue night then slowly rebound to near seasonal levels 
through Thu night. 


Long term /Friday through Monday/...by early Fri the upper ridge 
will begin to shift east of the forecast area in response to a weak 
mid level short wave tracking eastward over the northern Gulf 
states. Most of the longer range guidance continues to show little 
to no significant precip with this weak system Fri through early 
Sat. By late Sat into sun better rain chances can be expected in 
response to a much deeper long wave trof and surface cold front 
approaching from the west. With plenty of mid level forcing for 
most locations along the northern Gulf Coast, sufficient moisture 
in the boundary layer due to a deeper onshore flow by the weekend 
combined with moderate instability near the surface better 
coverage of showers and thunderstorms can be expected. With the 
better instability combined with increased directional shear by 
late Sat into Sat night the threat for a few strong thunderstorms 
will be possible. As a result this system will have to monitored 
closely later in the week. By midday sun the surface cold front 
will move across the region with plenty of residual moisture 
mostly in the form of low stratus in the wake front Sun afternoon 
and Sun night. The main upper trof axis will eventually clear the 
region to the east on Mon leading to mostly sunny skies with 
cooler temps Mon and Mon night. 32/ee 


Marine...a moderate southwesterly flow will continue over the 
marine area through this evening ahead of a cold front approaching 
from the northwest. A moderate northerly flow is expected in the wake 
of the front late tonight through Tue increasing Tue night into 
early Wed as cooler air continues to move south across much of 
the northern Gulf. A light to moderate east to southeast wind flow 
is expected late in the week as a broad surface ridge of high 
pressure to the north shifts east to the eastern Seaboard. With 
this pattern small craft will have to exercise caution late 
tonight and through early Wed mostly over the open Gulf waters out 
to 60 nm including the lower end of Mobile Bay and the MS sound 
east of Pascagoula. 32/ee 


&& 


Mob watches/warnings/advisories... 
Alabama...none. 
Florida...none. 
MS...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 






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