000 
fxus64 kmob 220537 aab 
afdmob 


Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama 
1137 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019 


Discussion...updated for latest aviation discussion below. 


&& 


Aviation... 
06z issuance...a few cig bases between 3 and 5 kft overnight, but 
the broken to perhaps overcast bases to remain at high levels. 
Some shallow ground mist overnight, but restrictions to vsby are 
expected to be minor. Wind light overnight with a more southerly 
wind flow setting up Friday around 10 kts. Cumulus bases may also 
lower to upper end MVFR categories on Friday. /10 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 531 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019/ 


Discussion...updated for latest aviation discussion below. 


Aviation... 
00z issuance...no weather impacts expected this evening with cig 
bases mostly at high levels and vsby OK. High pressure to the east 
results in a light east to southeast flow. /10 


Previous discussion... /issued 358 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019/ 


Near term /now through Friday/...the ridge draped across southeast 
today will slowly slide east and flatten out through the day on 
Friday ahead of an approaching cold front. Mid and high level clouds 
continue to stream into the area from the west this afternoon ahead 
of our next system. Moisture continues to slowly rebound as 
southerly flow becomes established across the area this afternoon. 
That said, the area will remain rain-free through tonight. Note: the 
returns seen on radar this afternoon are from chaff over the Gulf 
waters and wildfires/control Burns, not rain. Ahead of the 
approaching cold front, rain chances start to ramp up through the 
afternoon hours on Friday across the far northwestern portion of the 
area. The rain should hold off for the majority of the area until 
the short term period. 


Low temperatures overnight will be slightly warmer than last night 
due to thick cloud cover. Expect temperatures overnight to only 
bottom out in the mid to low 50s inland, while closer to 60 at the 
beaches. Enjoy the warm temperatures while they last as next week's 
temperatures look to be much cooler than the near-term temperatures. 
Daytime high temperatures on Friday will top out in the mid to upper 
70s areawide. This may be the warmest temperatures the entire area 
experiences until the middle to latter half of next week. 07/mb 


Short term /Friday night through Sunday night/...by Fri night main 
upper ridge that covered most of the Gulf of Mexico and northern 
Gulf states late in the week shifts east to the Florida Peninsula and 
western Atlantic in response to a progressive shortwave trough 
tracking east mainly over the middle part of the country. With this 
pattern the best forcing aloft will occur over the Tennessee River 
valley stretching south over the northern half of Alabama with decent 
vertical shear forming, 0-3km helicity values ranging from 100 to 
200 m2/s2, out ahead of the main system stretching from the 
central Tennessee and Kentucky to the la/MS coast by 12z Sat, then moving 
mostly over western and northern sections of the forecast area 
generally before 18z Sat. As mentioned earlier and continues to be 
a limiting factor for the development of strong convection ahead 
and along the front is weak surface based instability due to the 
time of the day, early to mid morning, and deep cloud cover 
forming over much of the north central Gulf region late Fri night 
through midday Sat. As mentioned earlier there could be a few 
isolated thunderstorms or rumbles with this pattern early Sat 
occurring mostly over eastern and coastal sections of the forecast 
area generally from mid morning through early to mid afternoon 
with a slightly better chance for thunderstorms occurring offshore 
over the marine area most of the day. With the better shear noted 
ahead of this system on Sat will have to monitor the surface 
based instability closely in the model guidance as we approach Sat 
morning. By late Sat afternoon the cold front will push west of 
the forecast area with clearing skies generally from west to east. 
A moderate south to southwest wind flow early Sat will shift 
northwest and build slightly in the wake of the front through 
early Sat evening then diminish to 10 mph or less by late evening 
and overnight. By sun the main upper trof will be well east of the 
region with an increased zonal flow aloft combined with a broad 
surface ridge of the high pressure settling over the northern Gulf 
states and adjacent Gulf waters by late Sun afternoon. This 
pattern will lead to partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies during 
the day on sun with cooler than average temps. 


Ahead of the cold front temps will be 5 to 10 degrees above 
seasonal norms. Lows Fri night will range from the lower to middle 
60s with the warmer temps near the coast. Highs Sat will range 
from the upper 60s to lower 70s generally over the western half of 
the forecast area and the middle 70s to the east. In the wake of 
the front temps will be below seasonal norms with highs ranging 
ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s for most locations. Lows 
Sun night will range from the mid to upper 30s for most locations 
generally north of the I-10 corridor and the lower to middle 40s 
to the south. 


Long term /Monday through Thursday/...for early Mon a weak 
trough in the mid to upper levels will still be present over the 
eastern half of the country moving off the eastern Seaboard by 
afternoon followed by mostly a zonal flow Mon night. By early Tue 
another progressive short wave trough to the west will move into 
the lower and Central Plains states progged to track east over 
the middle part of the country and mid Atlantic region through 
Thu. To the south high pressure will slowly become reestablish 
over the western Atlantic and eastern Gulf generally near South Florida 
then shift west northwest over much of the Gulf by late in the 
week. Near the surface high pressure shifts east to the western 
Atlantic by early next week with a deepening surface low forming 
over TX then tracking mostly northeast towards the upper MS River 
Valley and eastern Great Lakes late Mon through Thu. Increased 
vertical shear ahead of the surface low combined with moderate 
surface based instability by midday Tue could lead to a few strong 
thunderstorms over the forecast area by Tue afternoon. Some of 
the longer range guidance also shows a weak sfc boundary generally 
stretching west to east across lower parts of MS and Alabama by early 
to midday on Tue possibly helping to initiate convection during 
the day. This pattern will have to closely monitored by early next 
week. 


Temperatures during the day on Mon will be slightly below 
seasonal norms then slowly climb to above seasonal levels Mon 
night through Thu. 32/ee 


Marine...light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will persist 
through Friday before turning more westerly on Saturday ahead of a 
cold front. Sea fog will be a concern on Friday night and early 
Saturday as onshore flow will allow moisture and warm temperatures 
to flow into the area ahead of the front. Additionally, a few 
thunderstorms are possible on Saturday ahead of the cold front. A 
Small Craft Advisory will likely be necessary on Saturday. In the 
wake of the frontal passage, winds turn northerly overnight Saturday 
into Sunday. Winds and seas will briefly relax and turn onshore 
through the day on Monday. 07/mb 


&& 


Mob watches/warnings/advisories... 
Alabama...high rip current risk from Saturday morning through late 
Saturday night for alz265-266. 


Florida...high rip current risk from Saturday morning through late 
Saturday night for flz202-204-206. 


MS...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 



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