fxus61 kbox 261953 

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Boston/Norton Massachusetts 
353 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 

Summer like warmth is expected through Saturday. There will be 
a risk of a few showers or thunderstorms this evening across 
western portions of MA/CT. While conditions should be mainly dry 
late this week, there will be a risk for a few showers or 
thunderstorms Friday evening into early Saturday as a cold front 
approaches. A series of cold fronts will move across the region 
this weekend, bringing another chance for showers and scattered 
thunderstorms along with somewhat cooler temperatures. High 
pressure returns early next week with dry conditions and 
seasonal temperatures. 


Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/... 

4 PM update... 

Seasonable warm weather in progress across the region late this 
afternoon with mostly sunny conditions, temps in the 80s and dew pts 
in the 60s, except 70s at the coast with seabreeze/onshore winds. 
GOES-16 satellite imagery showing some modest buildups across 
southern/central Rhode Island in response to seabreeze convergence and lifting 
airmass with dew pts in the 60s. However mid level dry air providing 
a cap/lid on updrafts and should preclude any shower development. 
Although can't rule out a brief spot shower into early this evening 
over this region. Nevertheless dry weather prevails. 

Other area of interest is convection firing in north-central PA into 
central New York state. These storms approaching western Massachusetts/CT at or after 
sunset. Given the loss of daytime heating, poor mid level lapse 
rates and deep layer shear lagging well behind the convection, these 
storms are expected to weaken upon entering western MA/CT. Thus not 
expecting any severe weather and storms should completely fizzle 
before reaching central Massachusetts/CT later this evening. Good agreement 
among models especially cams on this storm evolution. 

Seasonably warm overnight with dew pts 60-65 restricting temp mins to 
this range. 

Finally, challenging forecast regarding stratus over eastern Massachusetts 
waters and coming onshore into Cape Ann, coastal Plymouth and Outer 
Cape cod. Unfortunately none of the guidance is capturing this well. 
Strong June sunshine heating the land into the 70s and 80s should 
erode stratus and fog as it comes onshore especially the Mainland. 
However as sunset approaches and especially thereafter with boundary 
layer cooling expected stratus and fog to overspread much of eastern 
Massachusetts as leftover seabreeze circulation provides the advection. 
Forecast confidence is low regarding how far inland this low level 
moisture will track. Nonetheless highest prob of areas of low clouds 
and dense fog will be coastal eastern Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the 


Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night/... 

4 PM update ... 

Thursday ... 

Behind departing short wave from overnight, good column drying with 
pwats falling below an inch across the area along with dry mid level 
relative humidity values. This combined with weak flat flow aloft should support 
dry weather. Morning low clouds and fog especially over Rhode Island and 
eastern Massachusetts will burn off to mostly sunny conditions by midday or 
earlier. Another seasonably warm day with mixing up to or above 850 
mb and temps at this level around +14c. This will support highs in 
the 80s and 70s at the coast given seabreezes. Dew pts in the 60s 
will provide a Summer-like feel. 

Thursday night ... 

Should remain dry with short wave trough passing well north of our 
region. Seasonably warm with lows from the upper 50s to lower 60s. 


Long term /Friday through Wednesday/... 

4 PM update ... 

26/12z guidance remains in reasonable agreement for a nearly zonal 
mid level flow to become more amplified into this weekend as a mid 
level cutoff moves over the northeast USA. This mid level cutoff is 
then expected to slowly move over the Maritimes early next week. 

At the surface, this pattern would have some significant impacts. 
The first of which will be the progress of a weak cold front as it 
moves south across New England Friday, and where it would stall into 
this weekend. At this point, thinking is this front should stall 
close to the South Coast. The proximity of this front would mean 
some clouds a prolonged risk for some showers, and perhaps a few 
thunderstorms, through this weekend. This is not to say it will be 
raining all this time. 

Temperatures are expected to be near to above normal during this 
time, with perhaps the exception of Sunday which may tend to be 
slightly below normal depending upon how much sunshine we 


Aviation /20z Wednesday through Monday/... 
forecaster confidence levels... 

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent. 

Short term /through Thursday night/...moderate confidence. 

18z update ... 

Thru 00z ... high confidence. 

VFR with spotty MVFR. Isolated shower possible Rhode Island and eastern 

After 00z ... high confidence on trends but low confidence on 
areal extent of low clouds coming onshore into RI/MA. 

Any weakening convection across western Massachusetts/CT dissipates by 
03z/04z. Then focus turns toward low clouds/stratus and fog 
offshore this afternoon coming onshore tonight. Uncertain how 
far inland these low clouds and fog will track. 

Thursday ... high confidence. 

Low clouds and patchy fog early over Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts lifts 
and dissipates giving way to VFR, dry weather and light winds 
except seabreezes near shore. 

Thursday night ... high confidence. 

VFR and light winds. Very low risk of an isolated shower over 
northeast Massachusetts and adjacent coastal waters. 

Kbos terminal...high confidence this afternoon but then 
uncertainty on timing and duration of low clouds tonight. 

Kbdl terminal...low risk of an isolated T-storm tracking close 
to the terminal 00z-03z. Otherwise VFR, dry and light winds. 

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...moderate confidence. 

Friday: VFR. 

Friday night: VFR. Chance shra, isolated thunderstorms and rain. 

Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Chance rain showers. 

Saturday night: VFR. Chance rain showers. 

Sunday: VFR. Chance shra, isolated thunderstorms and rain. 

Sunday night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance rain showers. 

Monday: VFR. Breezy. 


forecaster confidence levels... 

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent. 

Short term /through Thursday night/...high confidence. 

Main issue will be reduced vsby in areas of dense fog tonight into 
Thu morning especially across eastern Massachusetts waters. Otherwise dry 
weather prevails along with light winds. Fine boating conditions 
from Thursday afternoon into the night. 

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...moderate confidence. 

Friday: winds less than 25 kt. 

Friday night through saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Chance of 
rain showers, isolated thunderstorms. 

Saturday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 
5 ft. Chance of rain showers. 

Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. 
Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms. 

Sunday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 
5 ft. Chance of rain showers. 

Monday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. 
Slight chance of rain showers. 


Box watches/warnings/advisories... 
Rhode Island...none. 



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