AVN MOS Information

Alternate Computer Forecast

The Aviation (AVN) Model Output Statistics (MOS) is a forecast product produced by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. This forecast product gives detailed weather information in three hour increments spanning the 48 hours after the Aviation Model (A Numerical Weather Prediction Computer Program) is run. The forecast weather information includes temperature, dew point, wind speed and direction, cloud cover and obstructions to visibility, probability of precipitation, precipitation form (rain, sleet, freezing rain, or snow), and probability of severe thunderstorms.

The forecast weather information is derived from equations which relate the forecast output of the AVN to what actually is observed at the forecast location. In other words, a forecast is first taken from the AVN weather model. Based on how accurately this weather model has predicted weather in the past, NCEP has developed equations to skew the model's forecast output to make it more accurate for the location for which a forecast is being produced. The final "skewed" product is the AVN MOS product presented on this web site.

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