Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kvef 250949
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas Nevada
249 am PDT Thu may 25 2017
Synopsis...troughing moving in from the north will bring some
relief from the heat of the past couple of days...especially by
Friday...but expect today to be another breezy to windy day. Mostly
clear conditions and lighter winds are forecast for the Memorial Day
weekend with temperatures steadily climbing Sunday and Monday.
Short term...today through Saturday night.
Troughing moving in from the north will bring some relief from the
heat we've experienced the last couple of days. High temperatures
are expected to fall off 5-7 degrees today...moving US back towards
normal. Winds are expected to be on the windy side similar to what
we experienced yesterday which means some local areas could see
winds exceed advisory criteria this afternoon however widespread
advisory level winds are not expected and no advisories are
currently in effect.
Additional cooling is forecast for Friday and Saturday with
troughing continuing to influence the area weather. Expect sunny
conditions and near to slightly below normal temperatures both days.
Lighter winds will usher in the unofficial beginning of Summer.
Long term....Sunday through Wednesday.
High pressure is expected to be the main player Sunday and Monday
with above normal temperatures along with mostly dry conditions.
Although we will see some off and on breezes both days, wind is not
expected to be much of a factor. We will start to see a few changes
Tuesday and Wednesday as weak low pressure moves down the Southern
California coast and undercuts the high. The GFS is much faster
initially with this low and places it near northern baja by Tuesday
morning while the ec keeps it further north closer to San Francisco.
With the further south run of the GFS it starts to tap into lower
and mid level moister and wraps it back into northern Mohave County.
GFS is also showing increased instability with Li values around 0/-
2. Based on the GFS it does look like the moisture would be deep
enough to generate a few isolated thunderstorms over northern Mohave
County. However, the ec is much slower and most of the moisture
remains generally over eastern Arizona. By Wednesday, the ec shows
the low near northern baja and does start to tap into some of that
moisture and wrap it back to the northwest which is also fairly
close to the GFS solution. Although the models are rather far apart
on Tuesday did go ahead and add pops for northern and central Mohave
County and again on Wednesday since the models are in a little
better agreement. Temperatures are not expected to be impacted much
in the extended with readings a few degrees above normal.
Some residual moisture will remain over the Sierra for at least a
slight chance of showers/storms over the highest peaks each
Aviation...for McCarran....expect to see some dropoff in wind
strength this morning before southwest winds increase again this
afternoon. Sustained winds should be in the 17-24 knot range with
gusts up to 35 knots possible at times.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...mostly clear skies today with breezy to windy
conditions across the region by this afternoon.
Spotter information statement...spotters are encouraged to provide
reports according to Standard operating procedures.
Fire weather...although temperatures will be several degrees
cooler today...overall conditions will remain hot and dry. With
gusty winds forecast to be around 35 miles per hour again this afternoon across
Clark and Mohave counties, critical fire weather conditions are once
again enhanced and a red flag warning will be issued to highlight
the potential for rapid fire spread.